Sunday, October 18, 2020

Types of thunderstorms and severe weather.

 

Single-cell thunderstorms:

This type of thunderstorm, sometimes called pulse or airmass thunderstorm, are typically small weak thunderstorms, that don’t last very long usually lasting 20-30 minutes. They typically form due to summertime heating during the afternoon. as the name implies, this kind of thunderstorm has only one cell with a one-time updraft and one-time downdraft. Single-cell thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain and lightning. Single cell thunderstorms typically don’t become severe.  But if they do, they can cause microburst, small to moderate size hail, straight-line wind damage, and even weak tornadoes.





Multi-cell Cluster thunderstorms:

Sometimes if the atmospheric conditions are supportive, the potential is there for more than just a single cell thunderstorm forming. This type of thunderstorm, consist of a group of thunderstorm cells moving as a single thunderstorm. The setup aloft, is such that as the first thunderstorm matures, it is carried downstream by the upper level winds, this allows a new thunderstorm cell to form upwind of the previous cell. The process continues, numerous cells in various stages of development, merging together forming a large cluster of thunderstorms that moves along the path of previous cells. This is called training thunderstorms and can lead to flash flooding. Multicell storms can produce severe weather, which can consist of microburst, small to moderate size hail, straight-line wind damage, and weak tornadoes.




Multicell Line Thunderstorm:

Multicell line storm, or more commonly called a Squall Line. Is when multi cell clusters form into a line of thunderstorms with a continuous, well developed gust front on the leading edge of the line.  Most of the time, this gust front looks like a low hanging arc of clouds, called a shelf cloud. Right behind the shelf cloud can be strong damaging winds. A squall line chiefly causes straight-line wind damage. But it can also produce small to moderate size hail, occasional flash floods and weak tornadoes. Long-lived strong squall lines are called derechos (Spanish for 'straight'). Derechos can travel many hundreds of miles and can produce considerable widespread damage from wind and hail.




Many times, radar will pick out areas along the squall line that bow out. These are known as bow echoes. A strongly bowed section along the line is an indication of very high winds behind the area of the bow echo.

 




Supercell Thunderstorms:

This type of thunderstorms is called a mesocyclone because the storm is feeding off and rotating around its tilted updraft. A supercell can last for several hours and produce very strong downbursts large to giant hail, extremely heavy rain leading to flash floods, and weak to violent tornadoes.






Derecho:

There are three types of derechos. One type is called a serial" derecho and is produced by multiple bow echoes embedded in an extensive squall line that sweeps across a very large area, both wide and long. This type of derecho is typically associated with a strong, migrating, low pressure system. An example of serial derecho with a very extensive squall line and with embedded smaller scale bow echoes like the derecho we saw on October 7th, 2020.  The second type of derecho is called a progressive derecho and it is associated with a relatively short line of thunderstorms which can look like a single large bow echo on radar. The damage path is chiefly narrower than that of a serial type of derecho. The third type of derecho is called a hybrid derecho, and may have mixed characteristics of both a progressive and a serial derecho.





In order to get a derecho in the Northeast, it takes a complex combination of factors that have to come together at the exact right time in the exact quantity needed. If any of these factors are off you will most likely just see scattered severe thunderstorms.

Typically, we need a hot and humid airmass to be in place. Also, we need a strong intensifying upper level disturbance over Ontario, Canada, which is dragging a trough and strong cold front (sometimes a stationary front will get the job done) into the Northeast. As the trough becomes negatively tilted, we end up with a low to mid-level jet overhead.  As conditions continue to develop a cold pool of air will typically setup overhead.  With the westerly/northwesterly flow and the jet streak overhead we see instability continue to grow along with a temperature inversion (Cap) overhead. The Cap keeps the atmosphere from producing thunderstorms. Think of the atmosphere as a well shaken can of soda, ready to explode at the moment that cap is removed.  The conditions continue to build, until something like an outflow boundary or lake breeze lights the spark and breaks the Cap. With the cap no longer in place the hot, humid air at the ground with all that pent-up energy rushes upwards as a result, thunderstorms quickly form and go severe.  The thunderstorms quickly become very organized and become the monster thunderstorm complex squall line that becomes a derecho. The thunderstorm updrafts tap into the strong winds from the jet streak aloft, and mix down to the surface. Creating all the straight-line wind damage at the surface. The complex feeds off of the environment ahead of it, which like  the case on October 7th, the derecho can track hundreds of miles producing extreme damage along it’s track.  




Monday, October 12, 2020

How are my May Hurricane Outlook Predictions working out?

 

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The areas covered include the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

 On May 20th I posted my 3rd and final outlook installment on the 2020 hurricane season.  

 In the outlook I concluded, “My call for the Atlantic Basin is that it will be hyperactive and one of the most active in history. 20-30 named storms, 9-14 hurricanes, 4-8 will become major hurricanes (Cat 3 or better). Ace index is going to be between 150 and 190.  I expect to see at least a few U.S. landfalls, some of them most likely will be major. Those along the Central and East Gulf Coast could see a very active season. The Mid-Atlantic Region and Northeast will also see an increased likelihood of tropical cyclone impacts, with at last a couple of landfalls very possible.”

 “The hyperactive season I’m forecasting doesn’t mean any storms will make landfall on the U.S (2010 is a good example). But the high number of tropical cyclones and the idea of above average homegrown activity, does greatly increase the odds. Regardless if this is an active season or not. It only takes one hurricane to bring devastation and loss of life. So, my advice is to be ready and prepare a plan just in case something comes your way.”

Part three of my 2020 hurricane outlook can be found here.

 As of right now, there have been a total of 26 tropical depressions, 25 named storms, 9 hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes. Sadly, 151 people have lost their lives so far in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. 


The season so far breaks down to…

 Major Hurricanes: Laura, Teddy, and Delta

 Hurricanes: Hanna, Isaias, Marco and Nana, Paulette, Sally.

 Tropical Storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Josephine, Kyle, Omar, Rene, Vicky, Wilfred, Alpha, Beta, and Gamma

 Tropical Depression 10


What makes this year stand out?

 So far, other than Arthur, Bertha, and Dolly, every named system has been the earliest named letter storm on the historical record.  Every storm from Edouord to Delta has been a formation time record breaker Delta formed over 40 days earlier than its namesake did during the 2005 hurricane season.

 The years 2020 and 2005 are the only two in recorded history where forecasters ran out of approved storm names and had to resort to using the Greek alphabet. 

 Out of the nine hurricanes that have formed so far, five of them have struck the U.S.

 Delta's landfall in Louisiana made him technically the tenth named storm to hit the United States during the 2020 season, breaking the record set in 1916. Why do I say technically? Because I don’t think Marco was a bona fide tropical storm when it made landfall.  

 2020 Season has also seen another record; that being the most storms to have developed in the month of September. There were Ten named storms that developed during September. That breaks the previous record that was eight.

 2020 ties a record set in 1893 for the number of storms that formed on the same day. During September 2020 three named storms formed on the 18th, within the space of 6 hours. Back in 1893 three named storms developed on the same calendar day on 18 Aug. 1893.

 Most of the tropical cyclones that became at least a named storm, but did not cause significant damage or injuries. Which is a good thing. But with the number of 25 named systems, we would expect more damage. As I’ve said before a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is used to measure the overall activity of a season, factoring in duration and intensity of storms.








So, based on the number of storms and impacts my hurricane outlook has done very well. But my ACE forecast is still a bit high for an overall value for the 2020 hurricane season. As of October 12th, 2020, the Atlantic Ace Index Value stands at 123. Based on the 1981-2010 mean, an ACE index of 105.6 is considered average.  So yes, we’re running above average but only slightly.  So, while it is a very active season numerically it’s is only slightly to marginally active based on the ACE value…. Between 50 and 75 percent of the storms that have formed this year, were weak and very short lived; many of these systems wouldn't have even been named a few years ago. Also, the NHC has been starting to name systems in the far northern part of the North Atlantic, this practice has been occurring at an ever-increased pace the few years.  Why is the NHC naming storms well outside the tropics that form over cold water? I really don’t know… but IMO they are outside their purview when they do so

 But overall, I think my 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, has been right on the mark so far this season. The season ends on November 30th; so, we will see if the ACE value can come within the range I forecasted back in May.