Surface map and radar
On surface chart and radar We can see the 1st in a series of clippers Bringing a chance for snow and rain showers. I had of the 1st 1 we have a leading 1 front that has lifted through the region Showers that left light Light accumulations of 1-3 "Across a large part of Pennsylvania New York state into new England. Most of precipitation associated to warm front is now up over new England. The 1st of 2 cold fronts Is approaching from the west ahead of this we do have some snow showers breaking out across western parts of New York state into northwestern Pennsylvania. When is cold fronts come through They will likely bring A few " of snow And across New York state into northern and central new England, general snowfall amounts look to be 1-3 " especially in the lower elevations With the higher elevations picking up a general 3-6 " of snow With some localized areas seeing maybe as much as 8". There are also likely be a few squalls that move through with that cold front, allowing moderate to heavy snow to fall for 10-30 minutes. Which Reduce visibility. Behind the cold front we will see some lake effect startup especially downwind of lake Ontario. The lake snow shouldn't be overly heavy. But a general 1-4 " is possible. But those who get under the stronger parts of these bands could see 4-8 " maybe a little bit more than that.
later Thursday into Friday we look to have a system passing to our south. This could bring A snow mix rain event 2 southern parts of the region. This won't be a high impact event But there could be maybe a couple inches or so of snow on the northern edge of this across Pennsylvania into New Jersey and possibly southern New England.
Model images courtesy of tropical tidbits
The GFS is a bit further north and also much more bullish on snow than the EURO. It's possible this stays far enough south that none of our region see much out of it.
Over the next few days we are going to see a couple more clippers move through These clippers should be generally a bit weaker than the current one. So the impact shouldn't be as much But they will bring Scattered like snow showers and maybe a few rain showers for the southern parts of the region. We're also going to see temperatures warm during the day and cool back down at night.With the high sun angle and temperatures warming a bit we will see daytime melting of the snow pack and then as temperatures cool down at night leading to some black ice here and there, so keep that in mind!
Through Saturday we are going to have a warming trend, with Saturday being the warmest day of the next few days. Then on Sunday we're gonna have a cold front drop through, reintroducing an arctic air mass back into the region.
Monday through Wednesday we are going to see a highly complex Event come through that's going to be in two waves. The 1st will come through later Monday And to Tuesday. With a system passing to our south Bringing a mix of rain sleep freezing rain and snow. Who sees what will depend on the exact track. But right now, accumulating snow will be possible on the northern side of this across Pennsylvania into New Jersey and maybe southern new England. With a chance for sleet and freezing rain south of there
The current GFS run Courtesy of tropical tidbits
Turn on Tuesday we're going to get a short break in the event Before the second wave approaches and moves through for later Tuesday into Wednesday. again the exact track and timing of all the elements are going to be key as to who sees what. But this system is looking to bring another mess of rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow. Right now it looks like the impact will be across Pennsylvania the northern middle Atlantic into southern new England. Then on Tuesday as I said we're going to have a slight break; before the second half of this event moves through the region. This one looks like it will have a bigger more widespread impact across the region. But who sees what and how much is going to depend now how quickly we can move through these temperature transitions.
I got a question On the stratosphere and polar vortex. Specifically on if we're going through a sudden stratospheric warming event Specifically on if we're going through a sudden stratospheric warming event? Many times I like to answer questions here because I'm sure if one of y'all have a question. Then many others likely have the same question.
