What about spring?

 Current surface chart and radar From Penn State E -wall

This week we are going to be on a temperature rollercoaster. While no big storms look likely for the near future. We are going to see several weaker systems move through the region rather unsettled.

Surface chart  shows the cold front slowly moving off-shore. On radar we can see there are a few Isolated rain and snow showers across the region. Most of the region is going to continue to dry out today As colder air works its way into the interior. New York State into Pennsylvania are going to see a few snow showers rotate in out of the northwest. While it is chilly temperatures are going to be warm enough that little to no accumulation  is likely this afternoon into this evening a general coating to perhaps an inch mainly on the grassy surfaces for some.

We will not going to see any major storms. But the pattern is going to be very progressive and we're going to see several of these weak cold fronts move through the region over the course of this week. Tomorrow is going to continue to be chilly. Then as we approach and move into Wednesday we will see a wheat trough dropping in bringing a chance for a few isolated rain or snow showers. The trough will be hanging around For Thursday keeping things unsettled with isolated snow showers or rain showers possible. But many of you all should stay dry. Then on Thursday night into Friday we are going to see another culvert drop in from Canada dropping south and east across the region. This will bring a greater chance for Scattered rain showers and northern snow showers especially in the higher elevations. Temperatures turn chilly again for the weekend As we see high pressure building into the region for Saturday into Sunday. Sunday we'll see a weak system Passing to our north That could kick off a few rain or snow showers. Then for next Wednesday Monday another week cold front will drop through bringing a chance for isolated rain and or snow showers.

Here is more in the way of a detailed outlook for what I'm expecting for the long range.

Overall spring thoughts

We're a little past halfway through the month of March. Which means we're already meteorological spring. But with March acting more like a winter to spring transition; this  post is going to focus mostly on April and May and touch on June. I will cover what's left of the polar vortex, As well as how The El Nino looks to evolve. Both of these are going to be the main determining factors of the pattern as we head towards summer.

When we look at the ECMWF 500 mb pressure anomaly. We can see the polar vortex has a core that was left over from earlier and is sitting over eastern Canada. This is going to be the main driver of our pattern in the northern and eastern US for the rest of March.

This core is going to allow colder than average temperatures to drop out of Canada into The Northeast and eastern US. Below is the EURO 2 meter temperature forecast for the next 6-10 days There is also one  that extends out to the 7-14 day. The 6-10 day does show that cold air dropping out of Canada influencing our temperatures for the next week to week and a half. The 7-14 day does show warmer temperatures are trying to push north, as that PV core tries to push to the north. But see howEastern Canada and much of the Northeast is still going to be under the influence of this overall colder pattern for the rest of March. Due to that persistent northwest flow. Making it hard to dislodge this cold air pattern.

The climate prediction centers (CPC) 6 to 10 day temperature outlook also shows that they agree with this likely outcome.

In several of my pass post I have talked about how La Nina has faded and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Is more or less in its neutral phase. I've also been posting on how to data shows that we're going to see El Nino quickly develop this spring into the early summer. 

This remaining Polar vortex core sitting over eastern Canada is the result of this rapid transition we're experiencing from La Nina to El Nino. The atmosphere is having a hard time adapting to the rapidly changing dynamic. 

The image below is showing a correlation between SST (sea surface temperature) during the 10 strongest El Ninos and the 10 strongest La Ninas. 

Each phase of the ENSO has a different impact on the the atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns across the tropics. Overtime this  impact widens and effects the rest of the global weather pattern. Over the  winter 2025-2026 the La Nina was weak. But it still had an impact on the global weather pattern. So there's no doubt that this developing El Nino is also going to have an impact. The stronger the El Nino the greater the impact.

As I said before The ENSO is comprised of three phases El Nino, La Nina and neutral. So Nino is when the waters in equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. A La Nina is present when the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are below average. When we're in ENSO neutral, the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are considered average. Each one of these phases has a different impact on the global pattern. Each one of these ENSO phases can manifest with different strengths. A weak El Nino is when SSTS in region 3.4 are 0.5° C. to 1° C above average, A moderate El Nino is  when SSTS are 1° C to 1.5° C above average. The  El Nino is considered strong when the SSTs are  1.5° C to 1.9 °C above average. A super El Nino is in place When sea surface temperatures are 2° C. above average or higher. The opposite is true when it's a La Nina with the temperatures running below average. ENSO neutral is when the SSTS in region 3.4 are running -0.5° C. to +0.5 ° C.

The image below snow now the equatorial Pacific is divided into four ENSO regions

Ocean analysis

Looking at the SST analysis across the equatorial Pacific , We can see there are still some cool pockets in the eastern into central equatorial Pacific But overall the waters in the  eastern Pacific are much warmer than they were over the winter, and are hanging around + 2° C. 

The sub surface temperature image above is showing how the La Nina below the surface has faded as the warmer waters have pushed into the eastern Pacific; due to those stronger westerly trade winds. 

While the actual strength of this developing El Nino Is still being is still being determined. There is a growing  consensus in the data and on the models; that support the possibility of a super El Nino developing this year.

Below is a look at most of the major models El Nino forecast. The one on the left is region 3.4.  NOAA monitors this region  because it is strongly linked to tropical rainfall and atmospheric circulation pattern. Making it  an important indicator of which phase of the ENSO we are in. The image on the right is showing region 3.0. All of these models are showing El Nino quickly developing. With many of them supporting the idea of a super El Nino.

When we look at the multi model forecast for the upcoming summer into the fall. We can clearly see that El Nino signature in the equatorial Pacific. According to the model output the overall SST profile is at or well above the temperature threshold of what is considered a super El Nino.

When we look back at past analogue seasons, that saw similar  rapid transitions from a weak La Nina to an El Nino, an interesting pattern emerged. Combining these seasons we ended up with a temperature pattern that favored overall cooler conditions in the Northeast, northern Middle Atlantic into the Great Lakes. The image shows the general temperature profile for April, May and June.

The other models are a bit different but support the same general thing Of a persistent northwest flow dropping in out of Canada keeping the Great lakes, Northeast into Middle Atlantic genuinely cooler than areas to our west and south.

Precipitation patterns are more difficult to determine than overall temperature ideas

April

I do think this April overall is going to experience average to above average temperatures across a big chunk of the US. But for a large part of the Northeast into the Great Lakes An Upper Midwest, I think it's going to be an overly cool spring, with overall Temperatures ending up generally below average across most of Pennsylvania, New York State into southern and central New England As well as northern into central New Jersey. With far northern New York State and northern New England generally ending up with well below average overall temperatures. The areas south of the Mason Dixon line Maryland Delaware in southern New Jersey should be a little better with generally slightly below average to average temperatures for April. As for overhaul precipitation during the month of April, I think overall precipitation across  New England into New York State, most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey will be slightly below average to  average. But for parts of western Pennsylvania into western New York State y'all could end up slightly above average  when it comes to general precipitation.

With the likelihood of  troughing generally hanging around. Northern New York State And northern New England especially in those higher elevations will still be dealing with snow chances as we move through April.

May

During May I expect temperatures South of the Mason Dixon line to end up above average. But across Pennsylvania,  northern into central New Jersey and southern New England to become milder, With temperatures here ending up generally around average to slightly below average. However for much of New York State and northern into central New England I expect overall temperatures during the month of May will still end up overall below average to well below average. As far as precipitation I think most of the region will end up with slightly below average to average precipitation during the month of May. But far northern New York State into northern New England could end up with slightly above average precipitation. 

Towards the end of May, the idea of El Nino becoming more involved with the pattern Would increase the likelihood of precipitation amounts picking up a bit for the end of May and likely extended into the summer. I based this on the idea that on average El Nino summers end up being slightly wetter than La Nina summers. But that is highly contingent on how the tropics behave and if we can get some tropical moisture into our region during July, August into September.

June

I still favor the idea of June overall Being a bit cooler compared to the average. But overall I expect the reason the region to see average to slightly below average temperatures for June. When it comes to precipitation I expect the region will generally see average to above average precipitation. With the overall cooler conditions and a greater chance for rainfall, hopefully it will help limit the drought concerns as we move forward.

Well that's it! I hope you found us an enjoyable and informative read.