I had a nice romantic dinner for Valentine's Day And then over the rest of the weekend spent a lot of time with family. I hope all y'all had a nice Valentine's Day weekend as well. But we have to get back to talking about the weather.
This week is going to see a lot of ridging move into the eastern US. Today we'll see the warming that we saw over the weekend continue, as The system that brought a bit of snow to the northern Middle Atlantic into southern New England pushes off-shore and high pressure moves in overhead. Both today and tomorrow Temperature will likely be very slightly below average for many of us. Tonight into tomorrow a very weak disturbance with a trough will move across New York State and New England. As this rolls through late tonight Into Tuesday morning It could produce a few higher elevation snow showers across New York State and New England. With the lower elevations in these areas likely seeing just rain . But on Tuesday high pressure will be building in. Tuesday will also see a warm front approach from the south That will allow temperatures become a bit warmer. Overall as Tuesday goes on we should see fairly tranquil conditions.
Then on Wednesday we're going to see a Colorado low move over the central Great Lakes. This is going to drag a leading warm front north and east across our region. This will likely begin as rain across Western Pennsylvania heading into New York State, Before changing over to a rain/mix Into central New York And along the I-90 corridor. But this will likely be primarily rain and maybe some thunderstorms for southern half of New York state Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic. Then over New York state we could see snow and or mix. Depending on how far north this can make it Northern New York State into southern Vermont could end up with several inches of snow. Northern Vermont Vermont and far northern New York State may only see snow showers with little accumulation. Northern parts of Maine could pick up a bit of snow. Then for southern New Hampshire and southern Maine snow showers would be possible. Any snow should be over by Thursday.
Thursday we will be in between systems and it should be fairly tranquil.
Friday we're gonna see strong low pressure move in over the Great Lakes. The winds are likely going to be strong and very gusty In the Great Lakes and most likely extend into western parts of our region; with winds becoming less the further east you are.
For later friday morning into Saturday we are gonna see primary low pressure in the Ohio valley Tracking east and north. This stronger area of low pressure looks to bring the region rain and mix of sleet and possibly freezing rain with northern New York State and northern and central New England seeing possibly some snow. This area of low pressure looks like it could transfer off the Middle Atlantic coast. From here it could track out to sea or it could move north and east of New England. Where it could bring impacts as far north as Maine. But that will all depend on the exact track. There is a chance At inland low could be another further west Up over the central or even northern lakes If that's the case We would see no coastal and this would end up being a primary rain event for the region. As always it's about timing and track.
There is likely going to be another Disturbance that could impact at least parts of our region for Sunday into Monday. As I said in the post the pattern is gonna be volatile, With variations in temperature across the entire region. This time of year timing and track become very important. Things have to come together almost Perfectly to end up with big time snow events in our region.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
The ENSO has three phases El Nino, La Nina And Neutral
The ENSO is considered neutral When the sea surface temperatures (SST s) in the central eastern equatorial pacific + plus or - 0.5° C of the long-term average. Above +0.5 ° C. is considered El Nino and below -0.5 ° C. is considered La Nina.
The part of the equatorial pacific that is monitored for the ENSO Is broken into 4 regions.
The last post I did on the ENSO; I saId that we were in a neutral phase. That is still the case. When I did the math yesterday region 1+2 was +0.8 ° C. ,Region 3 was +0.1° C. Region 3.4 was -0.2 ° C. And Region 4 was +0.2° C.
When the ENSO is in neutral It means the pacific ocean isn't strongly warmer or cooler than average. We see the subtropical jet start to become active. And that has certainly been the case over the last couple of weeks.
Based on how the pattern has been. The general snow pack and the Great Lakes being so cold. As well as how the ENSO looks To evolve over the next few months.
When we're in an ENSO neutral during Spring. the Central Planes into the Northeast tend to be cooler than average. So as I have been saying for March I think to northeast into the northern Middle Atlantic and most likely back into the Great Lakes is going to be generally below average when it comes to temperatures. During April the warmer temperatures in the Southeast will likely push into Pennsylvania and in northern Middle Atlantic allowing for slightly warmer average temperatures there. North of there temperatures will likely still be at least slightly below average. For May temperature should start to be warming in New York State But northeast New York State into a large part of New England could be stubborn and still trend to be a bit cool.
Once we get into official El Nino territory the subtropical jet becomes much more active.
With the subtropical jet becoming so much more active. The southern US and southeastern US tend to see above average amounts of moisture and precipitation enter the pattern.
Typically during El Nino the Great lakes and Middle Atlantic into the southern part of the Northeast is dryer than average. With the rest of the Northeast seeing generally average precipitation amounts.
All the indicators are pointing towards how the El Nino that looks to be developing will likely end up being moderate to possibly strong by the time we get into summer 2026.
I want to reiterate what I said before about El Nino and hurricane activity.
El nino typically increases wind shear and trade winds over the Caribbean and out into the main development region of the Atlantic. This makes the atmosphere more stable and makes it harder for hurricanes to form and develop in the Atlantic basin. But El Nino brings about conditions that increase the chances for hurricanes in the Pacific. So the pacific could end up being quite active this Summer and Fall. While hopefully the Atlantic basin is less active.
Climatically the peek of hurricane season is in September if the El Nino is definitely in control of the pattern by that time. It would hopefully cut down on the number of tropical systems that develop. But remember less likely doesn't mean no tropical cyclones. Even seasons that had extraordinary low amounts of tropical cyclones developed during the season have seen major hurricanes and some of these did end up having major impacts. Also with that in mind even tropical storms can have major flooding impacts. As they say it only takes one.
The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden Julian Oscillation.
The NAO Is looking to become very positive As we move forward to February heading into early March. That would allow for no blocking setting up upstream Keeping the pattern quite progressive. It could also mean that things might become slightly quieter And it would help with the general warming conditions moving forward.
The MJO is currently in phase 2.
During this time of year when the MJO is in phases 8,1,2 and 3 they are considered cooler phases Then when the MJO moves into phases 4,5,6 into 7 they are considered generally warmer phases. But like everything in meteorology It all deals with nuance.
When the track line Is within the center circle The MJO was considered very weak Sometimes this is called the circle of death. Because the MJO is exerting little influence on the global pattern. Once the MJO gets out of the center circle; we have to consider how far away from the center circle it is. this is referred to as amplitude. The further away it is from the center circle the higher its amplitude. So the further the line is from the circle of death the stronger the MJO phase is considered, meaning it has more impact.
As I said the MJO currently is in phase 2. Then it will move into phase 3. Then it will quickly move through phases 4,5 and 6. As I've said before, these phases are considered warm phases. When we look at the CFS diagram. We can see the line is just barely outside the center circle of death during phase 4 and phase 5. So this is a very low amplitude; meaning the MJO is still fairly weak. Once it gets into phase 6 it gains a lot of amplitude as the MJO starts exerting a lot of influence. Looking at the ECMWF. We can see it does end up moving into phase 3 then into phase 4 before quickly going inside the center circle of death. Then it comes back out just before the middle of March and moves into phase 6. And has a lot of amplitude once it gets into phase 6 just like the CFS. This is signifying a quieter pattern and also slightly below average temperatures to slightly above average temperatures moving through February into March. And then once we get approaching the middle of March we could see much more in the way of warming. But I still expect we will see more cold as we move through the rest of March into April.
