Here's a look at current conditions as a messy system advances north across the region. We can see the rain over the I-95. With that ice and sleet over Pennsylvania and snow on the northern fringe of this. This is going to be a fast moving system So accumulations for snow and that mix are going to be on the light side. It doesn't take a lot of freezing rain to cause issues. So keep that in mind and be prepared for some slippery spots.
Models courtesy of tropical tidbits.
For Wednesday into Thursday we're going to have a frontal boundary bouncing around across the region This is gonna keep the threat for some showers in the forecast.
For Saturday we're going to have a trough hanging around the region bringing the chance for a few isolated rain showers; but the good news is temperatures are going to be extremely mild for this time of year. (Well good news for some bad news for others) A weak cold front will slide through on Sunday. Bringing a chance for scattered rain showers. Also remember on Sunday we have to set our clocks an hour ahead. I can't completely rule out some strong thunderstorms over parts of western Pennsylvania and western Maryland over the weekend.
The long range models are showing the cold returning as we get into mid march. This does correlate to what I've been saying for quite some time now. And also ties in to how the sudden stratospheric warming event looks to evolve.
The stratospheric warming is the reason we're going to see the polar vortex split It's also the reason we are going to get so warm in the first part of March. As this all evolves we are going to see cold air become reinjected into the Plains and the eastern half of the United States. This very well could allow for stronger storms, as well as some severe weather outbreaks across the plains into the Southeast United States.
Looking at the infrared satellite, we can see the disturbance to our west that is going to be working into our region for late Thursday and Friday; as it rides along that frontal boundary. But with the warming trend continuing, as that comes through it's going to be just plain rain for most of the region with only a chance for some mix in the highest elevations. Those of y'all across Pennsylvania into Maryland don't be surprised if y'all hear some rumbles of thunder!
For Saturday we're going to have a trough hanging around the region bringing the chance for a few isolated rain showers; but the good news is temperatures are going to be extremely mild for this time of year. (Well good news for some bad news for others) A weak cold front will slide through on Sunday. Bringing a chance for scattered rain showers. Also remember on Sunday we have to set our clocks an hour ahead. I can't completely rule out some strong thunderstorms over parts of western Pennsylvania and western Maryland over the weekend.
Monday we're going to have a system moving across Canada that's gonna drag another trough into our region. There be a chance for a few rain showers across the region as a trough is working in. Also we could see some mix in the higher elevations across northern New York State and northern New England. High pressure will be working in for Tuesday; other than a few very isolated showers, Tuesday should be a fairly tranquil day.
With these warming temperatures we are going to be experiencing quite a bit of snow melt; leading to a flooding risk, along with the likelihood of ice on the streams and rivers breaking up. We are going to run the risk of ice jams and ice jam flooding. Ice jams can lead to rapid rises in water. So stay weather aware if you're near these creeks, streams and rivers; as you could have little to no warning if the water start to rise.
We're definitely seeing warm temperatures right now. But as I've been saying, there is going to be a cool down as we approach mid march and beyond. I've been explaining the reason for this for quite some time So it shouldn't be a big surprise that it's going to happen. The real question is, will the pattern stay active? And are there gonna be any surprises moving through March?
We still have an active weather pattern with several shortwaves downstream. Due to that southern flux of moisture coming out of the Gulf. all of these parameters are going to cause a multi day severe weather outbreak, this week into next, across Texas up into the Ohio Valley. For our region we're going to see these waves move through as rain with chances for a few embedded thunderstorms.
The Madden Julian Oscillation is gonna move through phases 5, 6 and 7. This is gonna set up the forcing in such a way that we are going to see the pattern across the CONUS become more active over the next couple of weeks. It also is going to put the nail in the coffin of any thoughts that we're still in a La Nina. We're going to be an ESNO neutral heading towards El Nino heading towards April. The idea of the MJO going into phase 7 and 8 later this month, is a good sign that we are going to get cooler here in the east.
The stratospheric warming is the reason we're going to see the polar vortex split It's also the reason we are going to get so warm in the first part of March. As this all evolves we are going to see cold air become reinjected into the Plains and the eastern half of the United States. This very well could allow for stronger storms, as well as some severe weather outbreaks across the plains into the Southeast United States.
As the pattern switches back to a colder one over the eastern US. The question is going to be, can we get any storms to move up the East Coast as we move through the second half of March? I think there is a better than average chance that we see at least one surprise before we close out March. History and climo do support the idea of this possibly happening.
Right now enjoy these warm spring-like temps Because we are going to cool back off. As we move forward we will have more snow opportunities. Will any of those be big storms? Only time will tell.
