Surface Chart, radar and satellite.
We can see another MCS tracking along the edge of that heat dome. This will bring severe weather for far eastern Nebraska to part of the Ohio Valley. This is going to drop south and east into the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians. Over our region we can see the thunderstorms that brought all the thunderstorms to parts of southeast New York State and the Middle Atlantic overnight into this morning, are pulling away from the region.
For western
Maryland a shower or thunderstorm is possible, especially further south and
west. For the rest of us, there will be a mix of sun and clouds along thing
things feeling muggy but it will be seasonally warm. An approaching cold front will bring a chance
for isolated showers this afternoon and evening, but the vast majority of y’all
won’t see them. There is still a bit of wildfire smoke in the mid to upper atmosphere,
while it won’t reach the ground, it could still cause issues for those sensitive
to the smoke.
The cold
front will slide through tonight and tomorrow morning will bring breezy conditions
and some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms; these are most likely to be
non-severe
An
approaching cold front will bring the chance for a few hit or miss showers in
the afternoon and early evening. Perhaps a rumble of thunder. These showers
would be very isolated, and any storms are likely to be non-severe. Have the
umbrella handy, but most of the day you will not need it. Tomorrow will be a bit cooler and looks to be
mainly dry, with the humidity clearing out in time for the weekend.
Saturday
into Sunday is looking to be fairly tranquil with comfortable conditions. Then things go downhill, a warm front will
move into the region overnight Saturday into Sunday, bringing more clouds and
increasing humidity by Sunday morning the air will have a tropical feel. Sunday
will see mainly cloudy skies with waves of rain and thunderstorms developing and
moving west to east. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong to severe.
Any storms that develop will have the risk for torrential rain, creating the
risk for localized urban and flash flooding. Frequent lightning is also a danger. Isolated
storms could also contain strong winds and hail. A brief tornado or two cannot
be ruled out.
The cold
front will continue to push through on Monday keeping things unsettled. Tuesday thru Thursday will see a series of
troughs and weak cold fronts move through, most of the time should be dry, but
there will be a chance for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Tropical
Cristobal
As I said yesterday Tropical Storm Cristobal wouldn’t stick around for long. Currently he is post tropical and should end up dissipating today.
Invest 92L
We still
have 92L sitting south of Cristobal heading toward the western Atlantic. The
NHC has the 2-day and 7-day odds at 30% and 50% (not sure why 92Ls cone is
still red) On satellite it isn’t super organized due to that wind shear and dry
air, but it is looking a little bit healthier right now. Wind shear and dry air will continue to be a
problem. There is still a chance 92L will become at least a depression before
it moves into the eastern Caribbean Islands. Once in the Caribbean that significant wind
shear should completely shred this
Invest 94L
The NHC is
now calling the disturbance to the east of 92L Invest, 94L. 94L has 2-day development odds of 30% and
7-day odds of 50%. 94L looks unorganized
but it is starting to develop some convection (thunderstorms), The conditions ahead
are marginally favorable, as 92L as left more atmospheric moisture in its wake.
and it may be more apt to develop, as 92L has helped “seed” the lane in front
of 94L with added moisture. But it will still have to deal with a lot of wind
shear. So, for now we will watch and see what happens.
