This week
Current
Surface Chart and Radar
High
pressure is still in control, but it is shifting east, ahead of the system
moving into the Great Lakes, the leading warm front is going to start to bring
more heat and humidity into the region starting today.
Radar is showing most of the region is dry, but we do have isolated rain showers moving into western parts of the region. This afternoon these showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will be over the western half of New York State and Pennsylvania. The Storm Prediction Center outlook for today
As all this continues to push into the region tonight and overnight the showers and thunderstorms will be becoming more widespread. The heat and humidity are going to continue to build tomorrow. Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms will be over New York State and Pennsylvania. Some of these storms will be strong to severe.
Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather
The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe weather over Pennsylvania and the rest of the Northern Middle Atlantic, along with a large part of New York State. Right now, the severe threat is isolated, but there is the chance that SPC rises the risk to a Slight Risk, for part of New York State and Pennsylvania, the main risk will be damaging straight-line wind gusts and moderate to large hail. There will also be the risk for frequent lightning and heavy downpours. The chance for an isolated tornado is very low, but it’s not zero.
A series of weak short waves will move through for the rest of this week, keeping the weather stormy with a tropical airmass. With temperatures in the mid 80’s into the upper 90’s. along with dew points in the mid-60s into the mid-70s it will be uncomfortable for many, so remember your hot weather safety. The environment won’t see it raining and storming all the time, but thunderstorms could pop up at any time. Here is a look at the SPC convective outlooks for Thursday and Friday.
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For Friday a cold front cold front currently well to our west, will be approaching. The day will be another triple H Day, but as the front gets closer, it will kick off more rain showers and thunderstorms. For Friday into Saturday morning, these will be moving west to east across the region. As I said above, these thunderstorms could once again be strong to severe. By Saturday the cold front will be off the coast, allowing slightly cooler and less humid air to settle into the region.
This high pressure will sit over the region for Saturday into Sunday. For the most part this will keep the region mostly dry. But then another cold front will press into the region. Bringing the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms back in for later Sunday and Monday as the system moves through the region. Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure will move back in, providing mostly dry conditions along with cooler temperatures and lower humidity.
Yesterday I showed the 300mb pattern over the northern hemisphere. I talked about the wavy Jet Stream and how this was going to cause this up and down temperature pattern to continue for the foreseeable future. We still have plenty of cold air just to our north in Canada. As these ridges and troughs move across North America; these would be able to tap into some of that cold and direct it down into the northern tier of the CONUS. The 500 mb pattern shows this to be the case.
Images courtesy of AG Weather
Have a great
day
