The table is set for the possibility of some severe weather for parts of the region today.
During the overnight we had widespread rain showers and thunderstorms that rolled across New York State into northern New England.
Current parameters and the setup
Last night's heavier rain and thunderstorms have calm down a bit Rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder Over the region with some snow falling across northern Maine.
We have that area low pressure up over Great Lakes with that trailing cold front to the west. Extending over New York State We have that frontal boundary. North of the boundary we have that cooler dry air and south of the boundary we have the warmer air with a higher moisture content
Here's a look at the regional satellite
There will be quite a bit of sun over southeastern Pennsylvania into eastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey in the northern middle Atlantic This will allow temperatures to get very warm for this time of year. Areas further north are dealing with some clouds and rain showers; keeping northern Pennsylvania into New York State cooler. The low pressure over the Great Lakes is going to be riding that boundary and will be moving across New York State.
Today's severe weather threat
This afternoon we are going to see scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over New York State Into northern and western Pennsylvania. Then late this afternoon to the evening into tonight we are going to see a line of thunderstorms dropping south and east ahead of the cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather across western Into central New York State and Northern Into western Pennsylvania. The Marginal Risk covers the rest of Pennsylvania and a large part of the rest of New York State.
The risk is going to include damaging winds and the possibility of moderate to even large hail, along with frequent lightning and due to the heavy rain flooding could also become an issue. There is also the risk of a few tornadoes. As all this pushes into New England tonight, the severe risk will be much lower. But still widespread rain and a few isolated thunderstorms will still be possible.
Rain totals across much of New York state Into northern and western Pennsylvania will likely be 1-3 inches.
The wintry component
Most of the snow on the northern end of the system will be across Canada. But there will likely still be at least some limited accumulation along with a mix and even some freezing rain across northern parts of New York State and northern New England. This will all be especially true in the higher elevations above 1,500'.
Northern Maine will likely see 2-5 inches Northern Maine will likely see 2-5 inches of snow, With a dusting to 2 inches south of that. Across central Maine extending into northern Maine Sleet and freezing rain will be an issue. Sleet amount of a quarter to half an inch will be possible. Freezing rain Likely be running from a glaze to perhaps 0.2Likely be running from a glaze to perhaps 0.2 of an inch. The areas most likely to be dealing with this sleet and freezing rain will be from Caribou and points south down to around Bangor. There shouldn't be much in the way of mix or snow south of Bangor.
Wednesday and beyond.
Tuesdays boundary that was up over New York state will have drifted south and will be sitting over eastern Pennsylvania.
We're going to see high pressure setup over the Canadian maritimes. This is going to allow that boundary to push south and west out of New England. Becoming a back door cold front.
This will allow rain and thunderstorms to move south and west Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning along and south of the boundary. Cooler air will be dropping south into the warmer air mass. The location of the frontal boundary could lead to the possibility of some isolated severe weather on Wednesday evening into the night over parts of the northern Middle Atlantic. The front is going to stall across Southeast Pennsylvania. Behind the front it's gonna be quite cool But we will have warmer temperatures out ahead of it of the boundary. Those in the middle Atlantic Should be prepared for a rapid drop in temperatures as this is all moving through.
Then on Thursday you will have another area of low pressure approaching the great lakes We will have a frontal boundary extending out ahead of the low that will be pushing the back door cold front back to the north.
Over the next few days The region is likely going to see 2-5+ inches of rain. This combined with the snow melt continuing in the higher elevations Could lead to a lot of runoff Increasing a possibility of some localized flooding.
For friday, the frontal boundary is going to continue to push back north as a warm front. Allowing warm air to start surging back north. Friday and Saturday Is going to remain unsettled as the frontal boundary is hanging around overhead
Saturday night and Sunday We are going to see a strong cold front drop back down through the region. With the front we can expect widespread rain showers and thunderstorms Dropping south and east ahead of the The front. Some of these thunderstorms are likely going to be strong to severe. As the cooler air associated with the trough runs into the warmer air ahead of the front. With the exception of northwest New York state into western New York State most of the region should stay dry Easter morning. Then during the afternoon into the evening the rain and storms will be moving across the rest of the region. That southwest flow ahead of the front are going to allow temperatures to become quite mild., I think the severe threat is going to be during the afternoon into the evening. But severe threats should drop off for Sunday night into Monday morning As the front continues to push south and east into the northern Middle Atlantic
I expect the weather to stay unsettled for the foreseeable future. Along with us staying on this teeter-totter with swings in temperature.
