Current Surface chart, radar and satellite.
The surface chart shows that stalled frontal boundary sitting across northern New York State and over New England. This southern flow Is pushing all that southern heat and moisture northward. We have low pressure right in the front of boundary once again. On the chart we can see the low pressure over the Great Lakes. Accompanying that low pressure are rain showers and thunderstorms. This is all going to advance eastward. As the thunderstorms move into this warm humid air mass some of them will become strong to severe. Because the frontal boundary has pushed back north the severe threat has also moved north with it.
Today's convective outlook!
The storm prediction center has a Slight Risk for severe weather across a large part of New York State and into southern Vermont. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms around the slight area and it extends into Southern New Hampshire and across western Pennsylvania. The best timeframe for the severe storms looks to be mid afternoon to around midnight. The risk today will be strong damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours. We're going to have to worry about some frequent lightning. Along with the small chance for a few tornadoes.
So make sure you stay weather aware and be prepared to take action if severe weather approaches your area.
The stationary boundary is going to move to the south tomorrow as a backdoor cold front, Temperatures north of the boundary are going to cool off a little. Reducing the severe threat. But there could be a few thunderstorms The greatest chance for seeing these non severe storms looks to be across southern New England. Not everyone will see the showers and storms But if you do they could stick around a little bit. Saturday we're going to have a trough Stick around the region as the stationary front brakes down. For the most part Saturday shouldn't be too bad with the vast majority of us seen dry conditions but there will still be a chance for a few isolated showers.
Looking at the surface chart we can see there is a strong cold front out to our west. This cold front will be approaching Western parts of our region Saturday night Bringing a chance for rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. As the front continues to push through the region On Sunday we are going to see widespread rain and some thunderstorms move south to east across the region. The front should be pushing through Eastern new England and the northern middle Atlantic during the afternoon.N
There will be a chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of this cold front For Saturday into Sunday.
Day 3 convective outlook
Behind the front We are going to see the below average temperatures Move into the region. There was likely going to be snow showers across northern Pennsylvania, New York State into northern and central New England on Monday. This is going to be especially true for those higher elevations. Tuesday is going to remain quite chilly as high pressure sets up overhead, for the most part Tuesday is looking to be dry. And on Wednesday we're going to see the high pressure shift to the east. As an area of low pressure moves to our north over eastern Canada. We are going to see a warm front accompany this low pressure. that will allow our temperatures to warm a bit becoming Slightly below average to average for this time of year. With the front we will see scattered rain showers and a chance for a few snow showers across northern New York State and northern New England. For Thursday we are going to watch the low pressure exit the region, as high pressure moves back in overhead.
The last couple of post on this El Nino, have covered all this in detail. So I won't go back into it again. But y 'all can go back and read those post if you need to
It has been hot ... now what?
Over the last few days many parts of our region have seen near record to record breaking High temperatures. Today is going to be no exception! But a pattern change back to cooler conditions is on our doorstep.
In my daily post I've been talking about the return to cold Temperatures. I've also been talking about the same thing in my post on the developing El Nino. As well as in my spring outlook.
El Nino
For quite some time, I've been talking on how this developing El Nino is going to do it very quickly. And that is certainly happening.
Madden Julian oscillation
The MJO is moving from phase 7 into phase 8
The last couple of post on this El Nino, have covered all this in detail. So I won't go back into it again. But y 'all can go back and read those post if you need to
But all of this is going to end all this heat we've been experiencing. As we return to a pattern that allows for below average temperatures to once again set up across the region. This very cool pattern will stick around for a few weeks. That doesn't mean we're not going to have a few warm days here and there but by and large the temperature will be cool. I've been talking a lot about this pattern over the last 6-8 weeks. So none of this should be a big surprise for those of y'all who have been following my post. This is reflected in the CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. But I think the CPC is showing things being a bit warmer than I believe they're going to be.
That's it for today. I don't think I'm going to be posting tomorrow.
