Sorry no post yesterday But I got tied up with a lot of life issues and chores. Yesterday we dealt with that snowstorm. That one is pulling away. This post is gonna cover our next storm system.
The Sunday Monday storm.
This storm is incredibly complex setup with multiple elements That will have to come together just right. A few days ago I was leaning away from this having a huge impact on our region But I've listed the reasons at the time why I thought that But as is the case of everything in weather everything is dynamic. There have been enough subtle changes that I have now changed my mind.
Models courtesy of tropical tidbits
Our storm is already starting to develop.
The trough looks like it's going to become neutral to negatively tilted. So we're gonna have low pressure move off the Carolina Coast and then track north and east where it's going to continue to develop and rapidly intensify right off the coast. This storm is going to be a monster and it will go through bombogenesis. As I've said before bombogenesis is defined as a storm that quickly drops in pressure, This pressure drop is based on latitude, But generally a storm is considered to have bombed When the pressure drops 24 mb in 24 hours. This storm is likely to go through its pressure drop much more than that. So this is going to be an incredibly powerful Nor'easter!
Models courtesy of tropical tidbits
This morning we have ridging extending through Idaho. This is going to allow the trough to dig in a little bit, Which is going to allow this storm to come north and west much closer to the coast. The overall dynamics are not completely favorable for this to be a huge storm. Everything will have to line up perfectly for this to become the storm everybody thinks it's going to be, Including me! But because of all this There is a bust potential where this could underperform.
The mountains of West Virginia are likely to take a big hit. For our region the biggest impacts look to be Sunday night through the first half of Monday. With the storm pulling away Monday night into Tuesday.
Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon we will be dealing with rain and snow showers As we get further into the afternoon and approach the evening snow will become much more steady.
This is definitely looking to be a big coastal snowstorm. The nor'easter is going to bring a lot of wind, coastal flooding and heavy deep snow to the Middle Atlantic and southern New England. While it will graze Northern New England, Northern New York State into center and western New York State.
Here is where my thinking is as far as possible snowfall accumulation amounts. Based on the overall dynamics this is about as good as I can do!
4 to 10 inches across southeast New York State up into the New York State Capital District. 5-10 inches will also be possible across Eastern Massachusetts up into southern Vermont. North of the New York state capital district South of the Adirondacks into the western mohawk valley 3-6 "South of the Adirondacks into the western mohawk valley 3-6 inches, 1 to 3 inches will be possible north and west of these areas this would include the Southern half of New York state Northern Pennsylvania And across western Pennsylvania and western New York State. Southwest Pennsylvania including Pittsburgh could be on the outside edge of everything so a dusting to maybe an inch or two will be possible. The same for northern parts of New York State and northern New England Seeing snow showers with a dusting to an inch or so.
For coastal New Jersey, New York City and long island into southern Connecticut and eastern Massachusetts This could be the biggest storm so far for the season.
For the lower Hudson Valley and New York City 12 to 16 inches, same is likely for the western half Of Long Island and across central Massachusetts, 6-12 inches for southeast New Hampshire and along the coast of Maine, 3-6 inches A little further inland for Maine with 1-3 inches across central Maine back through central New Hampshire. For eastern Long Island 12-20 inches. The same 12-16 inch snow amount range looks to be the southern and eastern half of Connecticut , northeast Rhode Island and the eastern half of Massachusetts west of Boston.. Right now it's looking like the jackpot zone could be from Gloucester through Boston over southeast Massachusetts into the rest of Rhode Island where 14-24+ inches of snow is looking likely. Most of New Jersey away from the coast into southeast Pennsylvania is looking like 10-16 inches. For the coast of New Jersey from cape may all the way up across Long Island 12-20 inches of snow. For the Cape and off-shore islands It's looking like 12-20 inches of snow is possible.
Philadelphia and Baltimore could see 5-10 inches The same for the areas to the north of Washington DC Washington DC itself good see. 3-7 inches. If the storm does as it's supposed to these areas could end up seeing more than this.
Wind gust could be 55 mph to 70+ miles an hour along the southeast coast Including the Cape and off-shore islands, The coast of Boston could also see these kind of wind gust. Further inland For western Massachusetts and western Connecticut Including the coastal areas of long island sound and along the coast of New Jersey down into the Delmarvia wind gust of 40-60 miles an hour And then across eastern In Massachusetts Winds gusting around 30 to 40 miles an hour. The winds are going to cause extensive drifting.
Waves of 2-7 feet will lead to moderate to severe coastal flooding and Beach erosion.
For parts of southeast Massachusetts down across Long Island Into the coast of New Jersey We could be talking about a full scale blizzard. A blizzard is defined as, falling or blowing snow with winds of at least 35 mph; with visibility reduced to 1⁄4 mile or less for 3 hours.
Here's a look at the watches and warnings courtesy of pivotal weather
Currently Blizzard warnings are up for Coastal Delaware coastal New Jersey and Long Island. I do expect National Weather Service Boston to issue blizzard warnings across south east Massachusetts including the Cape and offshore islands. There is a chance these blizzard warnings could extend further away from the coast
Remember a subtle Subtle shift of 50-80 miles west of east can cause a huge difference.
At the height of the storm there could be snow rates of 1-3 maybe 4 inches per hour, Add in the winds And driving will be near impossible so my advice is to stay home. Be prepared for power outages.
