Surface chart and Radar
We have high
pressure that is drifting east ahead of an approaching warm front. Today is
going to feature plenty of rain for a large part of the Northeast and Middle
Atlantic. On the surface chart we can see that area of low pressure that was
over the Plains yesterday is now over the Ohio Valley, with a leading warm
front and a trailing cold front. The radar shows the rain over Pennsylvania and
New York State ahead of the warm front, with another area of rain and storms along
the cold front. As the rain and storms
over western the half of the region tracks east, that storminess over the Mississippi
Valley is going to be working north and east and end up interacting with and
adding to the stuff currently over the region. As the warm front lifts into the
region, things will become more unstable in the atmosphere.
That area of
low pressure in the Ohio Valley is a bit farther north, so the Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) has moved the severe chances north with it. As the southern part of all of this moves
north and east this afternoon and evening, we will see rain showers and
thunderstorms approach and mingle with the northern part of the system. Some of
these storms will be strong to severe. The severe risk will be more scattered
in nature. The low-pressure system will move across Southern New England into
the Gulf of Maine tonight. As all this evolves showers over western parts of
the region should end by early evening.
The SPC as a
Slight Risk for Severe Weather Across southern Pennsylvania, most of New
Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the Delmarva, with a Marginal Risk over most of
the rest of Pennsylvania, Southeast New York State including NYC and Long
Island into eastern Connecticut. Those with the greatest risk, will be south of
the Masion Dixson Line. The risk will be
damaging winds, hail, and a low risk for tornadoes. Frequent lightning will also be a concern. Training
thunderstorms (storms that travel over the same general area) could lead to
localized flooding. Those going to the
World Cup will have to be weather aware!
This will
continue into Tuesday, as waves of rain and embedded thunderstorms continue
across the northern Middle Atlantic and New England. Across the Middle Atlantic,
eastern New York State into New England, the day starts with plenty of clouds
and likely a few leftover showers. But this will gradually improve during the
morning, as low pressure moves away, we’ll see some clearing. By the afternoon,
most should be dry. But Maine will be hanging on to the rain a bit longer,
conditions across Maine will slowly improve, as skies clear west to east during
the afternoon into the evening, as things wind down.
Wednesday temperatures will be trending upward, and it looks to be more humid. This will slowly continue for the 2nd half of the week. As high pressure moves in overhead providing tranquil conditions with mostly sunny skies for much of the region. This will continue into Thursday. Thursday will see a weak system approach and move through providing scattered showers and thunderstorms for both Thursday and Friday.
Over the Weekend,
we will see another area of low-pressure approach keeping things unsettled. Sunday will stay unsettled, but conditions will
slowly be improving as the day goes on. Monday will see high pressure move in overhead with most of the region staying dry but lingering isolated rain showers
look to continue for New England.
That’s it
for today.
