A quick post on the next few days.
Surface chart and radar.
The system that produced the severe weather yesterday is now southeast of Long Island and is heading away from the region. Yesterday saw at least 4 tornadoes, the two in New York State resulted from waterspouts that moved ashore. One was in Nassau County on Long Island in west Atlantic Beach; the other was in Rockaways and Five Towns in Queens. There was also a tornado the cause a lot of damage in Dover Delaware. A tornado was reported in York County, Pennsylvania and another was also possibly spotted in Columbia, in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania.
Other than a few lingering showers, this will
pull away enough to make for dry conditions in the Middle Atlantic for the rest
of the day. For southeast New England,
it should be mostly dry this afternoon, but the winds will become gusty as the
low heads north and east. Behind this we have some short-lived high pressure building
in. So, the region should see mostly dry weather, with lower humidity. Tonight,
will be another cool one.
unsettled
weekend
We have a
shortwave of low pressure developing over the Carolinas, this is going to move
up the coast for tomorrow. However, as the high pressure slides east, clouds
will increase from south to north. Along the immediate coast there will be more
in the way of rain, with showers becoming scattered to isolated the farther
from the coast you get. But for many of y’all, Saturday stays dry. Then during
later in the day. a frontal system will be approaching that will likely bring New
York State and Pennsylvania a few scattered showers and storms later in the day,
as the warm front lifts into the region. These showers will be moving west to
east. Things will turn muggy behind the front. Then on Sunday the cold front will be swinging
through, bringing a better chance for showers and storms. Due to the cold air
aloft, some of these storms will be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds,
heavy downpours, frequent lightning and small hail. The tornado threat will be
low. I do think the severe threat will be more isolated
The
unsettled pattern is going to continue next week, with several short waves and
troughs moving through the region. This will keep the region coolish with
generally lower humidity. Next week won’t see rain all the time, there will be
plenty of dry time.
Tropical
Atlantic
It’s been a
while since I posted on the tropics.
Not much
going on. But we do have a couple of yellow spots the NHC is watching. The one
on the right is heading east toward Portugal. The one on the left is tracking
west-southwest, it will stay on this general track into the weekend, before turning
northward toward Bermuda, which it is looking to miss, then turn Northeast next
week. Neither of these two are going to be an issue for the US. Both weak disturbances are at 7-day
development odds of 20%.
Down in the
Main Development Region and Africa.
There is a tropical wave that just came off the West Coast of Africa, with another that will be moving into the Atlantic early next week.
The 1st
one, is going to be dealing with a lot of wind shear, and dry and dusty air all
compliments of this very strong El Nino.
So, this shouldn’t survive the hostile setup. The 2nd one will depend on if the 1st one can carve out an area with less dry dusty air ahead of it. But the odds of this making the full trip into the Western Atlantic are low. If by some chance it can find a somewhat better environment, any development would be very slow.
Speaking of El Nino, make sure you read my 3-part series on this year's Super El Nino!
