Warming but unsettled

 Current observations

If you've been waiting for a Longer stretch of warm temperatures this is going to be your week. That is as long as you don't mind having unsettled and windy conditions .

The surface chart shows a system north of the Great Lakes with an attached warm front moving into the region and a trailing cold front out over the Midwest.

Ahead of the warm front rain showers are moving across the region. This afternoon there will be a chance for a few thunderstorms. Especially across western New York State and western Pennsylvania. But radar has more bark than bite as a lot of this isn't reaching the ground (Virga)

With that southern flow temperatures are starting to warm. Behind the warm front temperatures are going to become much warmer during the week ahead. It's going to feel much more like summer than spring.

This frontal boundary is gonna remain semi stationary meandering around over the region. With a series of weak disturbances moving along this boundary This week is going to remain unsettled with rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe. The winds are going to be breezy too windy during the week.

Here's what the storm prediction center is calling for tomorrow. There is a chance that they could expand or upgrade the risk.

SPC convective outlook for tomorrow

Tuesday looks to start out dry But later in the morning and through the afternoon Showers and thunderstorms will move through. Some of these storms could be strong too severe with the possibility of strong damaging winds and hail. Additional risk will be Heavy downpours, frequent lightning and a slight chance for a tornado. But that tornado risk is very low. The SPC has a moderate risk for severe storms Across a large part of Pennsylvania most of New York State into western New England. The best time for severe storms will be during the afternoon into the evening.

The region is going to have a variety of temperatures this week North of the boundary Will be slightly cooler While temperature south the boundary will be quite warm. We will have a call from approaching out of Canada Thursday  and Friday. This front is going to be weakening As it drops into the region. But it could still produce a few strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Temperatures are going to cool off a bit behind this front. Saturday is going to remain slightly unsettled and then on Sunday another cold front is going to be approaching the region The cold front looks to be passing through  in the afternoon into Sunday night. With the front we will see scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms. Temperatures are going to drop a lot behind this front and will likely be below average for this time of year. There will be a chance for some snow showers across parts of the region Especially in the higher elevations. After a very warm week a return to cold temperatures is going to be quite a shock to the system.

I've been talking quite a bit about El Nino. Starting second part of next week or the week after We are going to start to see more in the way of an El Nino pattern developing as we transition from La Nina to El Nino. I will be making a post on this to put up at some point over the next couple of days.