Todays Northeast weather discussion…

 

Looking at the surface chart we see high pressure is still overhead, meaning the cool mornings and warm afternoons with lots of sunshine will continue.  These conditions are going to continue into later Wednesday, when a trough of low pressure currently over the western Plains works its way to our region.

Wednesday we will have a cold front approaching, the center of low pressure will be moving over southeast Canada into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Wednesday evening/night the cold front will be coming through, with scattered showers. The farther north you are the better your chance of seeing rain. The front will bring cooler temperatures back for the region.  

Thursday the front will move out, allowing for clearing skies, with breezy conditions. Friday will be cool and looks to be dry. But we will see another cold front move through for Saturday with more scattered rain showers. Snow showers are likely for those higher elevations of northern New York State and northern New England. Sunday will be clear with cool temperatures. Much colder conditions will be the case for Monday.  

Oscar...

Oscar, became a hurricane over the weekend. Yesterday he made a landfall in the southwest Bahamas, then a landfall on eastern Cuba. Currently he is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 45 mph, and a central pressure of 1000mb.  The mountains are disrupting his circulation.  He is now starting to make a turn to the north. Then he will continue to turn to the northeast, moving back over the Bahamas, as he heads away from the U.S. on his way toward Bermuda, and eventually Eastern Canada.   

We have a cold front that will be moving off the East Coast this is going to shove him toward Bermuda for  later Wednesday. By then he will likely be post tropical. Then the Bermuda Azores High, will steer him toward Newfoundland in Atlantic Canada later Thursday/Thursday night.  

We coming into the last part of the Atlantic hurricane season. But the teleconnections are hinting, that the Atlantic could become somewhat active again as we get into November, we also still have those warm SST out in the Atlantic Basin. We will see how this shakes out. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least Patty develop during the first part of November.