Lets talk about the future.

 The last several weeks has seen a lot of fluctuation between cold and warm spells with predominantly temperatures being below average overall. Due to the amount of cold In the pattern we have seen higher elevation snow showers bring accumulating snowfall To the higher elevations. This coming week Is going to see a continuation of the same general pattern. But There are changes that are going to be happening as we get closer to the end of April.

Here is a look at the 500 Millibar pattern over the Northern Hemisphere. Credit pivotal weather.

We can see that the polar vortex Has broken down as it continues through it's seasonal Adjustment.

Looking at the image we can see several areas with cold pockets that are rotating around the pole. Do this we can expect Our current pattern Of warm followed by cold followed by warmth is going to continue for the next 10-14 days So if you're waiting for any kind of Lasting warmth this spring You are going to have to be another patient.

The climate prediction center's 6-10 day outlook does support this idea of temperatures staying generally below average here in the eastern United States. These tall ridges And deep troughs are going to continue to keep the weather variable over the next couple weeks Including the chance for severe out Weather Outbreaks Across the plains, Midwest and Southeast US. For us here in the north east and northern midland we're going to continue to see bouts of rain and higher elevational snow continue to be an issue.

As the pattern continues to evolve We are going to see changes Develop that will bring more way of lasting warmth To our region.  The CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook does support this idea of moderating temperatures as we approach the end of the month of April.

As I said a few days ago We have left the La Nina winter behind us As we are now officially in a neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation  (ENSO). 

The International research institute (IRI) has the ENSO Staying in neutral territory Through the Summer. Then potentially heading slightly back towards a La Nina Signal  as we had towards winter.  But based on what I'm seeing It could very well had the other direction heading towards a weak El Nino.

So far spring 2025 has been chilly with generally below average temperatures and it has been For at least parts of the region. Given that the neutral ENSO and other teleconnections (I've been talking about the last few weeks) are signaling not a lot of change in the overall pattern moving forward. I think this idea Of general coolness and wetness in the average  precipitation pattern for our region will likely continue over the summer. So while well below average temperatures and  feeling like winter at times type of pattern is generally behind us. I don't think this summer is going to be a super hot one. I think overall temperatures will be overall average to slightly below average for June through September. Likewise I think the region should generally see average to slightly above  average precipitation over the summer . So while this is good news when it comes to overall drought conditions It also means it might not be the greatest summer for some of us.

The pattern that looks to be setting up for this summer Looks to favor quite a bit of heat in the central parts of the US, From Texas To the northern Plains. We all caught also could see above average temperatures in the Southeast US. This could allow for some severe weather outbreaks across the midwest across Pennsylvania into parts of the northern mid Atlantic. North of this area I think this summer severe weather risk should be more on the lines of average. There could also be a heightened Derecho risk, for parts of our region; as systems move along these heat ridges. So that's something we have to keep an eye on. For those who are new to the blog a Derecho is a Very fast type of thunderstorm called a Mesoscale convective system. The bold line can last for hundreds of miles producing widespread damaging winds of at least 58 mph. They can also bring flooding rains and isolated tornadoes.

I will touch on the 2025 hurricane season. The Sea surface temperatures  (SST's) in the main development region of the Atlantic are much cooler than they were at this time last year With the idea of a neutral ENSO lasting through this summer Into at least the fall. These water temperatures and other  teleconnections signal, the Atlantic hurricane season being around average as far as the number of Tropical Cyclones. 

Based on what I see right now I think 2025 should end up seeing 13 to 16 named systems with 6 to 8 of these become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater, and 3 to 4 of them becoming major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.

Right now I think the areas to watch the most Will be the eastern gulf, Northern Caribbean and along the in the Eastern seaboard of the US.

I will likely release a separate Atlantic hurricane outlook as we get closer to June.

04/10/2025

 

We have a system moving through that is going to bring rain showers and snow showers to the region tonight into Friday morning. Currently, we  have Rain showers over southeast and southern Pennsylvania. Due to the high pressure that is lifting out, The air is fairly dry So it will take a while for everything to moisten up. The rain is going to be scattered in nature. The rain will slowly encompass the region with most of us seeing rain temperatures are marginal but there is a chance for maybe some light snow in the Poconos and Catskills but accumulation should be pretty limited. The higher elevations Of northern New York In northern new England Could see 1"-3"of snow with a chance for locally higher amounts.

The upper level low in the  Upper Midwest  Is going to drop south and east toward Virginia, because of a weakening blocking pattern sitting  near Atlantic Canada As this drops south and east we will see low pressure develop. Ahead of this low pressure we will see  Atlantic moisture be pulled northward into the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. As the block continues to weaken This area of low pressure will move towards the Mid Atlantic coast. This coastal  storm will bring windy and rainy weather into our region for friday and Saturday The worst of the storm will be friday night into Saturday morning. This won't be a huge storm But it will be enough, to bring light  coastal flooding to parts of the coastal plain.

Thursday night and friday Clouds will be increasing with Scattered showers moving across Pennsylvania into the middle Atlantic and then into the north east by friday evening friday night. As rain overtakes the region As rain overtakes the region it will become more and more widespread As we head towards friday night. Rain will be moderate to heavy at times . Across the northern Mid Atlantic rain amounts Of 1" to 2" are likely with possibly locally higher amounts. North of here the further north you go The less rain you will see, generally 1⁄10 of an inch to an inch can be expected across Across this part of the region.

With this system, colder air will move in which will allow for rain to change to snow and a mix in the hills and higher elevations Of northern Pennsylvania New York state and northern and central New England; those in the Poconos and Catskills could see a couple of inches. While further north In the Adirondacks greens and whites Few inches of snow is likely, Generally 1-4 " of snow is likely for most For elevations at 1,500' or higher. There could be locally higher amounts in the mountains. Lower elevations of New York state and northern and central New England Could see a dusting to perhaps an 1".

Monday High pressure will be in control but, we will have low pressure in the northern plains head towards the great lakes this will be dragging a cold front across the central United States By Monday night and  Tuesday this front will be moving through the northeast at east coast there could be some severe weather Along this front in the southeast. 

We're in ENSO neutral conditions in the equatorial pacific. But The atmospheric dynamics are still adjusting from the  La Nina pattern. So atmospheric dynamics will be slow to adjust. With the AO and the NAO And PNA are all neutral the MJO Is also Neutral With the Being in the center circle meaning no phase is favored. Where is the teleconnections generally not exerting much influence on the pattern, There is nothing that is going to force a big change in our current pattern. So, the pattern is going to stay active with large troughs and ridges moving west to east across the continental United States. 

04/09/2025

 While the western part of the US is enjoying nice warm temperatures the pattern has stuck the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic with cool conditions. As I said yesterday This weather pattern is gonna stick with us for the foreseeable future. Today is a little warmer than it has been as the cool and windy Setup gives us a temporary break. But The hiatus is gonna be very short lived.

We have High pressure and control Bit we have an approaching area of low pressure, that will move over the Great Lakes. Starting tonight We're going to see rain showers Move into Pennsylvania Over the course of tomorrow these showers will move north and east across the region It won't be a complete washout but we will have scattered showers As the day goes on Snow will develop in the higher elevations Specially in the Catskills and Poconos where some light accumulation Is possible. Across northern parts of the region light snow accumulation is possible especially in the mountains. on

An area of upper low pressure in the northern plains is going to drop south and east into the southeast US. We will see an area of low pressure develop, As this moves north and east continuing to develop on Friday, When's will become gusty and we will see rain showers move north and east across the region by friday evening we will see The showers become much more widespread across Pennsylvania and in northern Mid Atlantic, By Friday night the widespread  showers will be moving into the northern parts of the region The rain snow mix Will hang around for Saturday. While many of us will see rain and or a little mix,  the higher elevations above 1,500' across northern Pennsylvania New York state and northern and central new England could end up with a few  inches of snow Friday night and Saturday. Friday night Into Saturday the onshore flow Will mean light coastal flooding will be possible.

As the system Starts to push east on Saturday we will see clearing will slowly develop west to east. Rain will still be an issue across new England during Saturday The system Will be moving away from the region Sunday, So lingering rain Will still be possible across new England. High pressure overhead will provide a fairly tranquil Monday. Tuesday we'll see the high pressure move east as a weak area of low pressure moves through, This will mark the beginning of scattered showers As a series of troughs move through for Wednesday into Thursday.

04/08/2025

 We have one cold front off the coast with  a Clipper to our north pulling a cold front through the region. With the cold front, cold air is streaming in out of the northwest, the air is well below average for this time in April. The cold air is allowing for scattered cellular snow showers Across New York state northern Pennsylvania and new England. A cross part of central Pennsylvania Northern New Jersey into southern new England Mixed precipitation will be possible. With rain showers across southern Pennsylvania Maryland Delaware and southern New Jersey.

As I said above temperatures are well below average. Brisk winds are making for very cold wind chills So make sure you bundle up if you go outside. Most will see a dusting to  3". With areas closer to lake Ontario and in the higher elevations of New York state and new England 3-6" of snow is likely. Those closer to lake Ontario Will see Higher amounts some areas in the tug hill could see upwards of 12" of lake enhanced snow. Parts of northern Maine could see amounts higher than 6" as well. These scattered snow and rain showers Will last into tonight due to the troughs moving across the region.

Tomorrow high pressure will move in overhead producing Clearing skies And winds will be lessening so temperatures will warm to around seasonal . The 1st of two areas of low pressure Will approach our region on Thursday,This will be accompanied by a warm front that will allow temperatures To climb, This warming trend will continue into the coming weekend. On Friday a second area of low pressure will develop to our south, As this moves north and east It will bring blustery winds and keep the weather unsettled, The higher elevations of northern Pennsylvania southern New York into southern new England could see a mix with some light accumulations possible in places like the Poconos and Catskills, Across northern New York And northern new England the high elevations could see a few inches of snow. with many seeing rain, heavy at times for our friday. The Middle Atlantic could be dealing with a few thunderstorms as well This rain will linger into Saturday, As the low pressure moves off the coast, We will have clearing developing west to east. The rain and snow showers across eastern new England could last into early Sunday. Thursday night and friday could see some light coastal flooding along the coastal plain. 

Sunday night and Monday the low pressure will be off the coast with high pressure setting up overhead. Tuesday we'll see yet another weak trough move across the region Precipitation will be highly scattered but with the chance for some rain for everyone.

The same overall pattern we've been seeing the last few weeks looks to continue for at least the next 7-10 days I expect the active pattern to keep allowing cooler temperatures to plunge into the region with some warming in between these bouts of colder air.

04/06/2025

Today is cool.

 Even though we've been in spring The last couple of weeks hasn't felt like it. We have A cold front. That is approaching along with an area low pressure that is gonna ride up along this Heading into the lower great lakes. A series of shortwave troughs Will move through that will lead to the 1st half of the week being coolish with blustery winds, as well as rain showers, A mix for central Pennsylvania northern New Jersey into southern new England, and light snow accumulation for parts of northern Pennsylvania, New York state and new England especially in the higher elevations. Each of these systems will bring a general 1-3"" of snow With 4-6 " possible in the highest elevations. The last shortwave coming through Tuesday night and Wednesday Will allow northwest winds to bring lake effect snow downwind of lake Ontario and lake Erie.

Later Wednesday Into Thursday High pressure will build into the region allowing things for settle down and warm up a bit but Another area of low pressure is gonna move through for friday. This will cool us back off for the weekend The same unsettled pattern with will stick with us into next week there is still plenty of cold air available in the pattern so these bouts of cold are going to continue as we move forward