July starts out wet and stormy.
National weather Service Mount Holly confirmed a tornado touchdowns near Frankford in Sussex County Delaware early afternoon yesterday.
Here is the current surface/radar chart
We can see the warm front is pushing into northern new England with the trailing cold front coming in from the west. In between the two, you can see the prefrontal trough That I talked about yesterday. The thunderstorms over New England are the same storms that went through New York state Pennsylvania and the northern mid Atlantic last night and during the overnight.
Ahead of the cold front we are going to remain very warm and muggy. Today the trough will be the focus as it causes scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms will be strong to severe, damaging winds, heavy downpours and possibly hail being the main dangers. With all the moisture in the air frequent vivid lightning will also be possible for some of these storms Risk is low but not zero.
Those with a good chance of seeing strong too severe storms will be across the eastern half of Pennsylvania up through southeastern New York state and into a large part of new England. The greatest chance will be across Maryland, Delaware, Southeast Pennsylvania and into New Jersey; where the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather. It will not be a pleasant drive for those on the evening commute on the I-95 corridor
The 1st of 2 cold fronts will come through tomorrow. Most of the region should stay dry But it can't rule out a few isolated rain showers here and there the risk for thunderstorms will be low but I can't completely rule out 1 or 2 of them. The secondary and stronger cold front will come through on Thursday. From this we can expect scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong too severe. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather over a large part of the region.
The main risk will be damaging winds frequent lightning some heavy downpours and hail.
High pressure will be a approaching and setting up overhead for July 4th and Saturday into Sunday. This will provide Comfortable temperatures and low humidity for the 4th And keep us dry for Saturday into Sunday, But humidity will be rising a bit on Saturday And Sunday will see even more Humidity.. Sunday will see the high pressure start to shift east as a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the cold front I can't rule a few very isolated showers over Northwest New York State back into western New York State and northwest Pennsylvania, but the vast majority of y'all should stay dry. The cold front will slowly be dropping out of Canada on Monday bringing scattered showers and some thunderstorms Parts of New York State and northern New England. The cold front will continue to drop south and east across the region on Tuesday again bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Ahead of the cold front for Monday and Tuesday temperatures will be very warm and humid. How warm it does get will depend on how much sunshine we see; sunshine will also help determine the extent of any severe weather we see.
