07/30/2025

 The surface chart shows we have that Cold front at sitting over New England back down through New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware . This is in the process of washing out. But it is separating a truly tropical air mass from slightly  cooler air  to it's north. The surface chart also shows a mostly stationary front sitting just north of the US Canadian border.

Far northern parts of New York State and northern New England Will likely see some isolated showers developed this afternoon. These will be very slowly trying to push south. All of this is going to set up the region for some scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be strong too severe, We have the potential of damaging wind gust, frequent vivid lightning and heavy torrential downpours. Not everyone will see these storms But if you do They will be extremely slow moving and will be capable of dropping a lot of rain over your location This could lead to localized low level and urban flooding. The storm prediction center has a Marginal Risk for severe weather over a large part of the region.

On the infrared satellite we can see a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) (Organized area of thunderstorms)  sitting over the Midwest. This is going to slowly work our way , bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for tomorrow.. Northern New York and Northern New England will see less in the way of rain. The region south of there will see more in the way of rain and  isolated thunderstorm. As all of this rides the frontal boundary, Some of these storms will be strong too severe.

Tomorrow   New York State and New England  will feel noticeably cooler and less  humid. The rest of the region will still be experiencing some heat and humidity.  Then for Thursday night and into Friday we're going to see low pressure develop near the coast. This will bring rain showers some of them moderate to heavy for eastern Pennsylvania Maryland Delaware Into southeast New York State and southern New England. The rest of the region should be fairly dry with comfortable conditions. Friday evening this low pressure is going to start to move away from the region, Allowing for clearing skies with rain winding down. The good thing this is going to finally drive all of this tropical humidity and heat out of here.

This will clear the way for a great weekend With plenty of sunshine and very comfortable temperatures. Starting Saturday the entire region will be under high pressure that will provide plenty of sunshine and dry weather with  low humidity and comfortable temperatures and low humidity. High pressure will remain in control for Monday and Tuesday providing very tranquil weather. Then for Wednesday we will be watching another area of low pressure approach the region.

Have a great day. I will most likely not be posting tomorrow, as I have a lot of stuff I have to do

A little bit on the tropics and the ENSO.

 It's been quite a few weeks since I posted anything on the tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center was watching a few areas.  But I didn't think anything would come of these, so I really didn't post on that.

Conditions in the tropical Atlantic.

After three tropical storms formed the Atlantic basin. It  become quiet over the last several weeks. The reason for this is the set up and conditions in the Atlantic still are fairly hostile for tropical cyclone formation.

Image credits National hurricane center.

Image credit Tropical Tidbits

While sea surface temperatures in the main development region (MDR) are starting to warm up. The region is still clogged with quite a bit of Saharan air dust and dry air. There is also quite a bit of wind sheer out over the Atlantic Basin. But the Set up over the Atlantic basin is becoming a little  less hostile than it has been over the last several weeks.

So it's going to be hard for anything  to develop over the next 5-7 days. But it's worth watching three areas in the Atlantic basin for the possibility for something to try and develop. As we get into the first week of August We are going to see wind shear weaken near the Southeast Coast. At the same time we look to have a front that's going to be moving offshore at that time. There's a chance we could see something develop on or near this front. We also have a tropical wave that has moving off to west African coast heading out into the Atlantic toward the Lesser Antilles over the coming weekend. Here too wind shear will become moderate; but as I mentioned earlier there is a lot of dry air over the Atlantic. So the odds of these developing is really low and I don't expect much to come from them. But they're  worth  watching just in case.

 There are signals that as we get in towards the middle of August We're still going  likely have anything that tries to  develop would still have to deal with some dry air. If something does develop In the main development region and come west it would still have to deal with the high terrain of the lesser Antilles So that could also give it a hard time. By the time we get into the second week of august We will likely see that southeast ridge develop enough weakness in the pattern allowing a chance for some kind of tropical mischief to move into the Gulf of America. or into the Southeast Coast. Climatology wise something developing by the middle of August would fall in line. So for now we just have to see what happens. The next name on the Atlantic hurricane list is Dexter.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation.

As many of Y'all know The ENSO consists of three phases. The first is El Nino which is the warm phase in the tropical eastern and central Pacific Sea surface temperatures (SST) Then we have the Neutral Phase which is when temperatures are near average. In the third plase, we have La Nina when we have cooler than average Sea surface temperatures (SST)  in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Currently the ENSO is considered neutral.

When we look at the SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific. We can see they appear to be cooling The ENSO Nino indexes show a dramatic drop in SSTs Which  make it look much more likely that we're gonna go back into a la Nina during the Fall. Another good indicator that we could have a la Nina developing Is all that warm water north of Hawaii in the North Pacific. So as we get into the 2025/2026 winter we will likely be at least in a weak La Nina.

Image credit Coral Reef Coral  Watch (NOAA) and Tropical Tidbits

The ENSO is the biggest driver of global climate.  No two La Ninas are ever exactly the same. But there are certain patterns that we can expect. During La Nina we often see strong high pressure north of Hawaii this in turn creates a big ridge in the polar jet stream. The polar jet separates that cold polar air from the warmer air to the south. During the fall and winter moisture and warm air coming in on the Pacific jet interacts with the polar jet stream and we see storms move along the polar jet across North America. Typically during La Nina the cold polar jet becomes much more wavy and variable. Here in the Northeast, it experiences colder and more in the way of overall wet conditions. But, the volatility of the polar jet means we can see many swings between warm and cold air masses. The precipitation types depend on which side of the teeter-totter were sitting on at the time.

Well that's for now.

07/29/2025

 Make sure you wear a hat As well as light colored clothing and use plenty of sun screen with a high SPF. As UV indexes are going to be extremely high for most of this week.

Yesterday was hot and humid and today is going to be more of the same, with temperatures looking to be slightly warmer then it was yesterday. Air temperatures will be in the mid 80s°F to the mid 90s°F  with With dew points in the 70s to near 80 °F, well produce heat indexes in the mid 90s °F into the hundred °F. The surface chart shows high pressure overhead and in control producing a few clouds and a lot of sun. It also shows an approaching cold front coming from the north and west.  

To add insult to injury The region is also going to be dealing with wildfire smoke from central Canada This will be especially true for parts of Pennsylvania down into the I-95 corridor between DC and New York City, where the smoke will likely reach almost to the ground.

Wednesday the cold front with a prefrontal trough will be slowly dropping south and enter the region; bringing the chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. The storms will be dropping into northern New York State and northern New England late morning to early afternoon. The front is going to be crawling its way south.  Out ahead of all this there will be a chance for a few isolated showers. Then during the afternoon, as the line is dropping south and east across the region; we will see more in the way of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms develop. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong too severe with the main danger being damaging wind gust, heavy downpours, frequent vivid lightning and a chance for moderate to large hail.The best chance for severe storms will be during the afternoon into Wednesday night.  Currently the storm prediction center has a Marginal Risk for severe weather across New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York State and through southern and central New England. One caveat is going to be when the wind shift to the west it will drive a lot of this Canadian wild smoke out of here.

North of the frontal boundary it will cool off for Thursday and humidity will drop off sharply. The cooler temperatures and lower humidity values last for Friday and Saturday. northern New York State and northern New England should be mostly dry With only a slight chance for a few isolated showers.  But south of the boundary it is going to remain hot and humid for Thursday, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible. I can't rule out a few thunderstorms on the strong side. 

As the front Pushes itself south on Friday It is going to be slowing down even more and stall. Right now the front looks too stall over extreme southern New England back down across long island into New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. We're going to see low pressure develop along this front of boundary late Thursday into Friday. This will produce more scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, rain could be heavy at times for parts of the Northern Middle Atlantic.  By. Later Friday, the ridge should be south of Maryland and Delaware as high pressure builds into the region. allowing for the Middle Atlantic to feel some heat relief and much lower humidity as dry Canadian air pushes in by Saturday with high pressure overhead.  So for the next couple of days drink plenty of fluids especially water and limit your time outdoors.

The real question us going to be how far south can that front boundary  get.

For those who aren't a fan of the heat, it does look like next week is going to be overall much cooler than it has been for the last few weeks; with temperatures running 5°F to perhaps as much as 10°F below average.  With high pressure sitting over the region for large part of next week We should get a some reprieve  from all the rain we've been seeing.

07/25/2025

 Welcome to Friday

Out ahead of the approaching cold front temperatures are going to be hot and very humid today. The tropical air mass is going to give plenty of fuel for storms that develop to turn strong to severe. As I indicated they might; the Storm protection center (SPC) has raised the alert level to a Slight Risk for severe weather today. 

The cold front is going to slowly move south and east across the region Bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Storms that form this afternoon and evening will be capable of Strong straight line damaging wind gust, torrential downpours,  some hail and frequent lightning. I can't completely rule out an isolated tornado. Conditions today should improve north to south as the front moves through. Tonight the storms should end for most of the region as the cold front crawls south and east. Tomorrow morning the cold front will have stalled just south of the Mason Dixon line. New York State and New England should have a mostly rain free day with temperatures slightly cooler and less humid than they have been. But for much of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey there will still be the risk for scattered rain showers.

Saturday overnight and Sunday morning the stationary front will start to move north as a warm front bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with it. As this warm front continues to move north across the region temperatures and humidity will rise. Then during the afternoon and evening a cold front will move into the region bringing a greater risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms might be strong to severe. Next week overall temperature should be more in the way of seasonal.  For Monday high pressure will temporarily move in overhead bringing the risk for a few isolated showers. For Tuesday a trough will be moving through bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. For Wednesday another quick shot of high pressure will move in overhead but there will still be the rest for a few isolated showers here and there.  Then for Thursday another trough will move into the region once again bringing scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms On Friday the trough will be nearby keeping the risk for scattered showers and some thunderstorms in the forecast.

Have a nice and safe weekend!

What about august

The current drought monitor Is showing the vast majority of our region is not experiencing any drought issues We do have some moderate drought conditions around cape cod and a few areas that are abnormally dry but that's about it.

 This summer we have seen some heat and plenty of humidity. The humidity has kept our overall nighttime temperatures quite warm.

The pattern over North America this summer has been the result of a persistent high in the northern Pacific and a persistent strong Bermuda High in the Atlantic, The northeast has also had to deal with the trough up over eastern Canada And the southeast ridge flexing its muscles. This has led to an over all zonal flow with the jet stream. The warm sea surface temperatures off the southeast coast And in the Gulf of America has resulted in three tropical storms. The behavior of the jet stream and the  southeast ridge has aloud a lot of moisture to stream out of the Gulf of America and off the southwest northern Atlantic. All of this has led to a lot of rainfall over parts of the Plaines into the Midwest along with The Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic; which has led to a lot of flooding events and quite a bit of severe activity here in the Northeast.

During august we typically see the pattern start to adjust to a fall winter pattern. This typically means we will see The polar air masses become slightly stronger. But the overall pattern still looks to continue We have a negative Eastern pacific Eastern pacific oscillation (EPO). The Quasi-Biennal oscillation (QBO) is in the easterly phase a Phase and the Madden Julian oscillation  (MJO) looks to remain overall weak.

 This is all indicating tropical forcing is going to remain rather weak during August. The climate prediction centers Overall then we have been seeing 8 to 14 Day temperature outlook is showing The Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic being cooler than it has been. 

Looking forward we could see the Bermuda high kind of weaken and move north and east. If this occurs it would have an impact on August temperatures and precipitation patterns. So there are signs that we could see a cooler temperature swing as we get into August. But I know some of you are model huggers and I do want to caution you that I think the models are having a hard time with this transition from the summer to fall pattern. So they are overdoing it in terms of overall coolness. I think overall August is going to consist of a gradual change from what we've been experiencing here in July. But I still think we're going to see these swings in temperatures and humidity levels. But there might be a longer time in between these two changes. By that I mean We will likely see cooler temperatures and drier air come in for a few more days than we've seen Followed by a few more days of slightly warmer temperatures and higher levels of humidity. Overall I expect to see slightly below average temperatures to start out August and then we will transition to an average to slightly above average temperature pattern. But overall August could end up slightly below average. As far as rainfall I expect we will continue to see quite a bit of rain as we move through August.

07/24/2025

 Start of another heat wave!

Today is going to see a lot of heat and humidity move into the region. Parts of the region is also dealing with a bit of Canadian wildfire smoke. The surface chart shows The high pressure has moved further off the coast allowing for that southwest flow that is going to bring in higher dew point and warmer temperatures. We can also see the cold front approaching from the west. Radar and satellite show not a lot going on over the Northeast and Middle Atlantic But the radar does show storms and rain. approaching from the north and west, Some some of this could be reaching the ground in northern Maine.

Temperatures and dew point are going to continue to climb today. During the course of today We will see clouds increasing ahead of the approaching frontal system. It will stay warm and humid with winds increasing this evening and tonight. As the system gets closer we could see some isolated showers and Isolated thunderstorms break out late tonight and over the over far western parts of region. The showers and storms will become scattered as we approach and get into friday morning over western parts of the region and northern New York State. Tomorrow we'll see the heat and humidity become very oppressive with temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s and dew points in the upper 60s into the 70s. So remember your hot weather safety rules and make sure you drink plenty of water.  As the day goes on the showers and storms will be slowly dropping south and east across the region reaching the I-95 corridor In southern New England by  the evening. As all this moves into the hot and humid tropical air mass Some of the storms will become strong to severe with the danger of gusty damaging winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning there will also be the risk for some hail and I can't rule out a few isolated tornadoes. The best timing for severe weather will be from around noon  into the evening. The storm prediction center (SPC) has a Moderate Risk for severe weather. With the high humidity there is the risk for some of these storms produce torrential downpours that could lead to localized flooding.

By friday evening night The front should have pushed off the New England Coast It will be starting to stall near the Mason Dixon line. New York state and new England Should Brain ending By friday night But those closer to the frontal boundary we'll see the risk for some showers and thunderstorms continue for Friday night and Saturday. For Saturday night and Sunday morning the stationary front boundary will move back north as a warm front Front will return the risk for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. The humidity will be still rather high So there will be the risk for some heavy downpours. Then during the afternoon and evening a cold front will be approaching and moving in The front will increase the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region There will be the risk for some straight line damaging  winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Monday we'll see So we'll still be At risk for some isolated rain showers and thunderstorms Then on Tuesday another cold front is gonna approach and move through. With the frontal passage we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday we will be near a trough once again so we will be at risk for isolated and thunderstorms. Thursday will feature the risk of rain showers and thunderstorms as another frontal system approaches region.

07/23/2025

 It's Wednesday.

The surface chart shows a few areas of strong high pressure are dominating the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. Radar and satellite show nothing is going on overhead.We do have low pressure attached to a Stationary front over the Plains  stretching into Canada. 

Today the temperatures are slightly warmer than yesterday but humidity is still low providing a very nice day for all y'all, But there are clouds over eastern Pennsylvania down to Maryland , Delaware and New Jersey courtesy of the upper level ridge and a trough off shore. We do have a lot of storminess over the northern Plains. As the stationary front becomes a cold front and  approaches from the west, all of this will be heading in our direction. Ahead of the front a strong southwest flow will pump  heat and humidity into our region, starting tomorrow. Clouds will start increasing tomorrow afternoon. I can't rule out a few evening or Thursday night showers over far northern new England, But the vast majority of us should stay dry. That will change for Friday ahead of the cold front approaching. Heat and humidity will become oppressive. As the cold front moves into this tropical air mass showers and storms will break out Starting over northern and  western New York State and northern New England morning into early afternoon These will drop south and east across the region during the day. Some of these storms will be strong to severe with the chance for damaging winds, some hail, very heavy downpours and frequent lightning.  There will also be a risk for an isolated tornado or two. With the heavy rain the risk for localized flooding will once again  be an issue. The rain will be ending over New York State and New England Friday evening and Friday night as everything slides to the south and east. The greatest time for severe weather will be 2PM through the evening. There is a good chance the SPC will upgrade part of the risk area to a Slight Risk.

Friday night and Saturday as the front slows and gets hung up there will still be a chance for rain showers and embedded thunderstorms for Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. If low pressure develops along this frontal boundary rain could still be heavy at times. The frontal boundary will hang around for Sunday keeping the weather unsettled. The rain could stretch further north into New York State and New England. Again rain could be heavy at times this will be especially  true across the Middle Atlantic  I-95 corridor. For Monday the frontal boundary will finally push far enough south to clear the rain out of  most of the region. But with a trough nearby I can't rule out a few rain showers here and there. Tuesday We will see another cold front approach. Ahead of the front we will see scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms. For Wednesday high pressure will build in bringing in mostly dry conditions, but there will still be the risk for a few isolated showers.

7/22/2025

 Great weather before the heat wave.

Here's your current surface chart In radar image. 

We can see not a lot is going on with high pressure over the region But we do have a little  shortwave off the Middle Atlantic coast that could set off a a few very isolated hit and miss showers over New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware especially right along the coast. The rest of the region should be dry. Temperatures and humidity today will be very comfortable for this time of year across the region. Tonight will be another very cool one. Infrared satellite Shows Region is mainly clear but we do have a disturbance out over the Plains that will be impacting us for later in the week.

Tomorrow will be another similar weather day with a chance for a few rouge showers closer to the coast. Temperatures will climb a little bit but humidity should stay in check. Thursday as the system to our west and north approaches, Southwest winds will allow  temperatures and humidity to spike. With the hot, hazy and humid conditions many of Y'all will likely be under heat advisories. Far northern parts of the region could see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms starting Thursday evening into Thursday night. For Friday we will be under the influence of a tropical air mass once again with oppressive heat and humidity. This will be the start of another heat wave for parts of the region. Ahead of the approaching cold front Rain showers and thunderstorms will break out over northern New England, northern and western New York State into northwest Pennsylvania during the afternoon. Some of these storms will be strong to severe with the risk of damaging winds, hail, heavy rain and frequent lightning. The front will continue to slowly push south and east Friday evening and Saturday, with waves of showers and thunderstorms moving with it. Again some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe with the chance for damaging winds Heavy rain some hail and frequent lightning. Friday and Saturday We are going to be dealing with oppressive heat and humidity. Sunday high pressure Sunday we are going to see high pressure pushing down out of Canada; this will push the cold front south of the region. The region will see temperatures and humidity a little lower. We have the chance for scattered rain showers.Monday we'll see The front still stalled to our south, Scattered showers will still be an issue especially closer to the frontal boundary. Tuesday we will see a prefrontal trough drop through the region, bringing the chance for some showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday the following cold front will push in we will have the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region.

07/20/2025

 A quick post on today and the week ahead.

Today we're going to have that stationary boundary moving north. As the southeast ridge pushes some heat and heat and humidity into the region. Then we're going to have a cold front slice in bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Radar shows scattered Rain showers and some storms over northern New York State and northern New England

Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds, heavy downpours, hail and frequent lightning. The tornado risk is low but not zero. In the Friday post, I mentioned the risk for some severe storms on Sunday, right where the SPC has the risk area set up, so I did good.

The storm prediction center has a Slight Risk for severe storms across southern and central New England down to southeast New York State into northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. The greatest time for any severe storms will be this afternoon into the evening, 3-8 PM could get a bit wild. With the risk of heavy rain The weather prediction center does have a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and flooding inside the Slight Risk area. 

Tonight high pressure is going to approach This will set up overhead for Monday into Thursday. The vast majority region will be dry For Monday through Thursday with only a very slight chance for a few showers here and there. Temperatures and humidity for Monday and to Thursday will be much more comfortable than they have been. Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal system we will see heat move in and humidity become oppressive. The cold front will slowly move through on Friday through Saturday. Bringing back the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be strong too severe. The upcoming weekend is going to be hot and humid. The cold front is going to stall over the region on Sunday, with the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing, especially near and along the stalled frontal boundary. South and east of the boundary the heat and humidity will remain.

07/18/2025

 We made it to Friday!

The surface chart shows the frontal boundary is down over the virginias. We do have high pressure sitting north and east of our region.  Radar is showing the vast majority of region is dry with just a few isolated showers close to that frontal boundary to the south.

The cold front yesterday has swept out the humidity that's been plaguing our region for a while now. Today temperatures are going to be A bit below average for this time of year and the lower humidity is going to make it feel very comfortable outside maybe even a bit cold since we become accustomed to all the heat and humidity.

During the overnight into Saturday The stalled frontal boundary is going to start moving back north as a warm front we are going to see low pressure move along the front. As the front moves into  Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey, It will create some  scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms. There could be  few rogue Strong/ severe storms over far western parts of the region.  The area of low pressure should make it off-shore Saturday afternoon allowing for clearing skies west to east. The rest of the region should be dry for Saturday, But I can't rule out the chance for some rogue showers to make it up into Long Island.

Saturday overnight a cold front will be approaching, clouds will be increasing ahead of the front. As the front drops out of the great lakes in Canada we will see a broken line of showers and some thunderstorms dropping  into northwestern and western New York State and in northern New England during the morning. The front will continue to drop east and south during the day,  the line will be making it into the I-95 corridor late in the day. There could be some severe weather for New England back down into New York State Sunday afternoon/evening.

Over the weekend the severe threat looks to be rather low, but there could be a few storms on the strong to severe side with some gusty winds and heavy rain. The weekend is not going to be a washout. All y'all will see scattered showers isolated thunderstorms so just so don't cancel any outdoor plans just keep an eye on the sky and be prepared to move indoors if something does approach your area.

Here's a look at the day 1-3 convective outlook.

Monday behind the cold front temperatures and humidity levels should be similar to what they are today. High pressure should be in the vicinity for Tuesday through Thursday keeping the region mainly dry with only a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures and humidity should stay comfortable for Tuesday. But the humidity and temperatures will start to move back up for Wednesday. Our rain chances go up for Thursday night and Friday as another cold front approaches and moves across the region. Ahead of the cold front for the end of the week temperatures and humidity are going to rebound becoming hot and humid once again.

Invest 93L is gone. The rain that was associated will continue to move north and eventually east. It's too soon to know if any of this rain will make it into our region here in the northeast So we'll keep an eye on it.

The national hurricane center isn't showing anything developing over the next 7 days. But we do have a couple areas in the Atlantic that are worth keeping an eye on just in case.

07/17/2025

 Post on the next few days drought conditions and touch on the tropics.

The surface chart shows the area of low pressure in Canada dragging that cold front approaching the region.

Out ahead of the front we have hot and humid conditions. Radar is showing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing over New York State into New England. These are associated with that trough sitting over New York State into Pennsylvania. The severe storms that were over Long Island have pushed east.

As the cold front gets closer another prefrontal trough will come through that will kick off some rain showers and thunderstorms. Across Pennsylvania into Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and the I-95 corridor the showers and thunderstorms should be fairly isolated, But later in the day far southern Pennsylvania into Maryland and Delaware could see a little bit more in the way of showers and thunderstorms. But I really don't think you're going to be very wide spread. For today and to this evening up over New York State into northern and central New England closer to the area of low pressure we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be strong to severe With the risk for damaging straight line winds, some small hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. The tornado risk is very low but not zero. The storm prediction center has a Marginal Risk For severe weather over the eastern half of New York state Pennsylvania into new England and Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. I don't know if I agree with the Marginal Risk across much of Pennsylvania into the middle Atlantic.  the Parameters don't look like they support it. But that's the SPCS' call not mine. Those with the greatest chance of seeing any severe weather Will be up over New York State and New England where there is more lift associated with the low pressure in Canada. The risk for more in the way of widespread severe storms will be across northern New England where the SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather.

Tomorrow high pressure moves in and the front will be sagged to our south. A northwest flow will bring in cooler temperatures and much lower humidity. 

Friday night another system will be approaching, with increasing clouds west to east. The Stall front will start to move north as a warm front. It will move into western Pennsylvania on Saturday. For places like Pittsburgh rain will probably Start mid to late morning. Western New York state a few showers move in during Saturday afternoon. This will slowly be moving across the region reaching central parts of New York State and Pennsylvania in the evening. Temperatures and humidity levels slowly increasing with the frontal passage but the vast majority of the region should stay comfortable. The trailing cold front will move into  western parts of Pennsylvania Saturday night. Temperatures and humidity will be increasing a bit ahead of the front Sunday. During the day into the evening scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be around.

 Monday through a large part of the coming week is looking to be fairly decent. As high pressure sets up with  seasonal to slightly below average temperatures and low humidity. The region should be dry for For Monday through Wednesday.

The drought monitor.

All the rain Over the last several weeks  has the vast majority of the region drought free. With only a few areas experiencing abnormally dry conditions. There is only 1 area of moderate drought in southeast Massachusetts. With all the rain in the forecast These conditions should continue to improve.

The tropics.

Invest 93L moved across the Florida Peninsula into the Panhandle yesterday. Today it is tracking along the northern Gulf Coast

93L is in a low shear environment but it is been dealing with some dry air and it is unclear if it will emerge over open water long enough for better development odds. Right now chances of this developing into a tropical depression or storm is fairly low. Guidance suggest this could track a little further north then the current model projection. But, the national hurricane center is still giving it 2 day and 7 day development odds of 30%.

Widespread flooding will be possible across the Florida Panhandle through Louisiana where general rainfall amounts Of 5-8 " of rain with localized amounts of around 15" will be possible. This will especially be true for places in Louisiana. Southeast Texas could also end up with quite a bit of rain. Here is a look at the latest spaghetti model showing the possible tracks 93L could take.