09/15/2025

 High pressure is in control, But we do have a storm developing to our south that we will have to keep an eye on.

We have high pressure sitting overhead pressing in from the north That will keep most of the region dry and warm for at least the next couple of days. New York state new England and most of Pennsylvania should stay dry for the next few days heading into Thursday. The region will see  seasonal temperatures today. Then temperatures will be warming Becoming above average for tomorrow through Thursday.  On the satellite and radar we can see that disturbance that's around the Carolinas. This is going to drift toward Virginia Bringing a chance for some scattered rain for the delmarvia, Maryland and New Jersey, Rain could be moderate to heavy at times. It is possible that as this drifts north It could bring a few showers as far north as part of southern New York State into southern New England on Wednesday. The most impact from this should be felt Tuesday night and Wednesday. As this approaches the Delmarvia by Thursday it should start moving out to sea, as a cold front comes south out of Canada. I will talk more about this in the tropical section below. 

Later Thursday a cold front will begin dropping in out of Canada. Right now this front looks to be rather moisture starved, so not expecting widespread rain with it.  But it will have a chance to bring a few scattered showers to northern parts of the region for late Thursday/night. The front will continue dropping south on Friday bringing the chance for a few showers to the rest of New York State, southern New England into Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic on Friday. Behind the front, high pressure is gonna drift back in bringing seasonally below average conditions with lower humidity for Friday and the Weekend. This will be the start of another extended dry spell, which is not the greatest news; since we're experiencing all this abnormally dry weather and drought conditions across the region.

Tropical Atlantic

This disturbance is dealing with a little bit of dry air But In spite of that it's starting to look more robust. The disturbance will be heading into a more favorable environment over the next couple of days. Currently the National Hurricane Center is giving this 2 day development odds of 40% and a 80% chance of development over the next 7 days. 

This is going to continue to track to the west northwest. Then it will track more north as it moves around the Bermuda High in the Eastern Atlantic and should stay  north and east of the Caribbean. And then as it approaches the Western Atlantic It should be picked up by the trough moving off the East Coast heading towards Bermuda and should be directed back out to sea. While it still looks to stay away from the East Coast of the US those in Bermuda will want to keep an eye on this. 

There is another wave coming off the West Coast of Africa that we will have to keep an eye on. This one looks to have a better chance of obtaining a lower latitude and possibly approach and move into the Caribbean.

While the disturbance in the central Atlantic looks to stay away from the East Coast; There will be an area of coastal low pressure around the Carolinas. That will have to be monitored tomorrow and Wednesday. While this should stay extra tropical,  it will have a slight chance to become a sub-tropical /tropical depression. Regardless of development, this will bring quite a bit of rain and wind to the Southeast especially around the Carolinas and directing rain and wind into the Demarvia Peninsula and New Jersey. Those in the Middle Atlantic could experience some coastal flooding and beach erosion.