Today is tranquil tomorrow not so much!

This week

Current Surface Chart and Radar

 

High pressure is still in control, but it is shifting east, ahead of the system moving into the Great Lakes, the leading warm front is going to start to bring more heat and humidity into the region starting today. 

Radar is showing most of the region is dry, but we do have isolated rain showers moving into western parts of the region. This afternoon these showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will be over the western half of New York State and Pennsylvania. The Storm Prediction Center outlook for today

As all this continues to push into the region tonight and overnight the showers and thunderstorms will be becoming more widespread. The heat and humidity are going to continue to build tomorrow. Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms will be over New York State and Pennsylvania. Some of these storms will be strong to severe.

 

Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe weather over Pennsylvania and the rest of the Northern Middle Atlantic, along with a large part of New York State.  Right now, the severe threat is isolated, but there is the chance that SPC rises the risk to a Slight Risk, for part of New York State and Pennsylvania, the main risk will be damaging straight-line wind gusts and moderate to large hail. There will also be the risk for frequent lightning and heavy downpours. The chance for an isolated tornado is very low, but it’s not zero.

A series of weak short waves will move through for the rest of this week, keeping the weather stormy with a tropical airmass. With temperatures in the mid 80’s into the upper 90’s. along with dew points in the mid-60s into the mid-70s it will be uncomfortable for many, so remember your hot weather safety. The environment won’t see it raining and storming all the time, but thunderstorms could pop up at any time.  Here is a look at the SPC convective outlooks for Thursday and Friday.

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For Friday a cold front cold front currently well to our west, will be approaching. The day will be another triple H Day, but as the front gets closer, it will kick off more rain showers and thunderstorms. For Friday into Saturday morning, these will be moving west to east across the region. As I said above, these thunderstorms could once again be strong to severe. By Saturday the cold front will be off the coast, allowing slightly cooler and less humid air to settle into the region.  

This high pressure will sit over the region for Saturday into Sunday. For the most part this will keep the region mostly dry.  But then another cold front will press into the region. Bringing the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms back in for later Sunday and Monday as the system moves through the region. Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure will move back in, providing mostly dry conditions along with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. 

Yesterday I showed the 300mb pattern over the northern hemisphere. I talked about the wavy Jet Stream and how this was going to cause this up and down temperature pattern to continue for the foreseeable future.  We still have plenty of cold air just to our north in Canada. As these ridges and troughs move across North America; these would be able to tap into some of that cold and direct it down into the northern tier of the CONUS. The 500 mb pattern shows this to be the case. 

Images courtesy of AG Weather 

Have a great day

Stormy end of the week!

 

The pattern

Looking at the 300mb pattern over the northern hemisphere we can see the Jet Stream is very wavy. This is going to cause this up and down temperature pattern to continue for the foreseeable future.  The pattern looks to keep the threat for steep ridges in the west and deep troughs in the east. A few days ago, I talked about the high pressure in the Atlantic. The Bermuda High circulation pattern directed into the Gulf, looks to keep injecting tropical moisture into the Pattern over the CONUS.  With this constant wave train working west to east, will keep the threat for severe weather over the Plains, Midwest into the East. This overall pattern looks to in place for the rest of June and will likely extend through July into August.

 

This week

Current Surface Chart and Radar

 

Today High pressure is overhead meaning it is cooler and present. The radar is showing nothing going on

Tomorrow is going to see temperatures and humidity levels start to increase.

Satellite

 

We have a system out in the Midwest that is going to be moving over the lower Great Lakes into the Saint Lawrence Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday we will see a warm front lifting in from the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front on Tuesday, temperatures will be noticeable warmer, with increased dewpoints.  Western parts of the region will have the chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

On Wednesday high pressure will be pushing east with the front will be moving across the region, allowing for hot conditions with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Pennsylvania, New York State during the day, with the warm front moving into New England Wednesday evening/night. The thunderstorms could become strong to severe Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of New York State and Pennsylvania. The unsettled pattern will continue for Thursday into Friday, with Maryland Delaware, New Jersey into New England having a better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, again some of these storms could be severe.  Both Thursday and Friday are going to be hot and very humid.

For Friday a cold front will be approaching. This will kick off more rain showers and thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could once again be strong to severe. The hot temperatures will ease a bit over the weekend, but it’s still going to feel quite warm and humid. With the chance for pop up showers and thunderstorms.

 

That’s it for today!

 

 

The Northeast is getting a reprieve from the heat, but the heat will return!

 

Quick Post for this week

Current Surface Chart and Radar

 

The surface chart shows the cold front dropping through Pennsylvania, heading for Maryland and Delaware. Behind the front the air is much cooler and less humid than it has been. The cooler drier air will push into the Mid Atlantic today. As it does so, rain showers and thunderstorms will become prevalent. Some of these thunderstorms may become strong to severe, bringing the risk for damaging wind gusts, hail and heavy downpours.

The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe storms over extreme southern Maryland.

This cool down over the region will be short-lived lasting into tomorrow. But then big changes are going to occur, the jet stream pattern over the eastern U.S. will shift northward as a big ridge takes over the pattern.  Starting Tuesday, the heat and humidity will start to ramp up. The heat and humidity will continue to build during the rest of the week. This will be the warmest surge of heat and uncomfortable humidity we’ve seen so far this year.  The first half of the week should see more dry time than wet time, with many of y’all staying dry. But rain chances will increase for the rest of the week, as we could see a moisture plume set up from the Gulf of America.

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather Tropical Tidbits

We’re going to have a tropical high over the Atlantic. The clockwise (or as my grandmother said Deasil) flow around the high will allow for plenty of moisture to stream northward for Thursday and Friday.  Both days will likely feature rain showers and thunderstorms, some of these storms could be locally strong to severe.

The Tropics

The National Hurricane Center isn’t showing anything developing in the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days. But this is typical for this time of year, as sea-surface temperatures aren’t as warm as they will be later in the season, also windshear, dust and other conditions aren’t as favorable at the start of the season. This time of year, any development normally occurs in the western Caribbean, Gulf, and off the Southeast Coast.  Conditions could become a bit more favorable as we head past Flag Day.  

This string of sunny, summer-like days is coming to an end!

 

Current Surface Chart and Radar

Satellite

High pressure is still in control, but changes on the way.  Currently there isn’t much going on over the region. But we do have that frontal boundary to our north and a cold front approaching from the west. Today is going to be mostly dry and warm with above average temperatures with a touch of humidity.  We’re going to see clouds increase north to south as the day goes on. The frontal boundary to the north is going to end up stalling over Maine. Bringing the chance for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two during this afternoon into the evening. Those who get under the clouds will see temperatures back off a bit, but other than that, the day will be tranquil.

The area of low pressure with the cold front will approach tonight, the southern flow ahead of the front, will mean humidity is going to be increasing, there could be a few showers across western New York State and western Pennsylvania later tonight into Saturday morning. As the high pressure pushes east, the cold front will start to slowly move through across New York State and Pennsylvania there are going to be widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, some of these storms will be strong to severe. We’re likely to see a line of thunderstorms develop across western Pennsylvania and New York State and drop south and east. Moving across Pennsylvania, as well as the southern New York State along and south of I-90, these could also impact most of Connecticut, Massachusetts southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire.  These thunderstorms will be capable of strong winds, large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain, a tornado cannot be ruled out. Those with the greatest risk of see any large hail and the low chance of a tornado will be over western into central Pennsylvania.  Across western and northern New York State, northern and far western New England, across Long Island into New Jersey Maryland and Delaware the conditions won’t be as supportive for severe weather, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with the main risk being damaging winds and small hail.  The severe threat is going to last into the evening. 

The Storm Prediction Center

 Here’s a look at tomorrows convective outlook from the SPC

Here’s a look at tomorrows convective outlook from the SPC

The cold front should be sitting over southern Mayland, southern Delaware and southern New Jersey on Sunday. North of the front it will be much cooler and less humid. But temperatures will still be warm to hot along and south of the front.  Away from western Pennsylvania and western New York State Sunday won’t be a washout, but it will feature a chance for some scattered showers and possibility an isolated thunderstorm. For those south of the boundary, there will be the increased chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, there is a chance isolated thunderstorms could become strong to severe. and upper-70s for Monday.

The Storm Prediction Center

 

Here’s a look at Sunday’s convective outlook from the SPC

Monday will feature clearing skies as high pressure approaches. This high pressure will be in complete control come Tuesday, with lots of sunshine and temperatures beginning to climb a little. But we will be watching a frontal boundary approaching from the west. Temperatures will be climbing ahead of the front. Wednesday most of the region should be dry, but rain showers and some thunderstorms could become an issue over western parts of the region. This cold front will be slowly advancing across the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with the rain showers and thunderstorms advancing with it. This front will end up stalling over the region, allowing a trough to hang around keeping it unsettled.

 

Have a great day!

The next couple of days will be great!

 Current Surface Chart and Radar

 

Satellite

 

We can see high pressure is sitting overhead and in complete control of the weather over the eastern U.S. Radar and satellite show no precipitation or clouds are interfering with any of this. This is going to be our weather for the rest of the work week. Temperatures will continue to climb and become above average by Friday into Saturday with temperatures in the mid-80s to upper 90’s across the region north to south.  

 On Friday the dome of high pressure will start to shift east, but it will remain in control keeping things warm and dry. But we will be watching a frontal boundary approach from the north and west.  There could be a few showers late Friday night/overnight into Saturday morning for western and northern New York State along with northern New England. But, the bulk of the rain will move into western Pennsylvania, New York State and New England later Saturday and Saturday night.

This will be a slow-moving cold front and will slowly drop through the region over the weekend, this will produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with the passage of the frontal boundary, some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe across northwest Pennsylvania, New York State and northern New England on Saturday, then the rest of the region for Saturday night and Sunday. The biggest danger from these isolated severe storms will be damaging winds and hail. The boundary will be meandering around for Sunday and Monday keeping things unsettled. Monday will see high pressure approaching. This will move in overhead for Tuesday and Wednesday providing dry and nice weather. 

Tropical Write UP

The Atlantic Hurricane season started on Monday. So, this means, I will be posting on the Atlantic over the next six-months. At this time, the National Hurricane Center isn’t showing any area of interest over the next 7 days.

 

I did produce a hurricane season outlook a few months ago. But that is only an educated guess on my part, to give you a general impression of what is likely to happen over the season. Here’s a link to the outlook. 

An average season sees 14 named storms, with 7 of them being hurricanes. NOAA is calling for 2026 to see 8 to 14 named storms with 3 to 6 of them becoming hurricanes. So, a below average to slightly below average season. The reason for the lower numbers is that El Nino is very likely to develop soon, and strengthen. This should help to suppress Atlantic storm activity by increasing wind shear. This year’s El Nino is likely to strong to very strong (super) by late 2026 or early 2027. I’ve been posting on the El Nino a lot so this isn’t new news.

So, what’s going on in the Atlantic Basin?

I’m going to touch on the setup currently in the Atlantic Basin. This will help refresh terms I will use periodically during the coming season.

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is still too far south to allow for storm development, but it is working its way north, as is typical for this time of year. The ITCZ moves north and south seasonally because it follows the Sun; it moves north in the Northern Hemisphere summer and south in the Northern Hemisphere winter. 

The ITCZ is a permanent low-pressure area at the equator that ends up encircling the globe near the equator. and is the boundary zone between the Northeast and Southeast trade winds. This is where trade winds converge and this forces the air up into the atmosphere, forming the ITCZ. All of this leads to increased convection, cloudiness, and precipitation.

Looking at the sea surface temperatures (SST), we can see the SST in the Tropical Atlantic are cooler than they have been the last few years. The SST data comes from a blend of satellite observations, Ship and buoy observations and models performing ocean analysis. The question is, is the input data being skewed in some way? 

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) we can see there’s a lot of Saharan dust out over the Atlantic, again this is typical for this point in the season. The SAL consist of pocket of hot, dry and dusty air. This comes from, sand and other particulates that is lifted into the atmosphere from the Sahara Desert and then carried westward by the African Waves into the Atlantic Ocean. The hot dry air acts as a cap that prevents the warm moist air above the ocean from rising and mixing the drier air aloft, which help keep the atmosphere stable which acts to inhibit tropical development. Another thing the SAL will do is help cool the SSTs, but in this case, it could be causing the satellite to think the ocean water surface temperature is a little cooler than it actually is.

As I said El Nino is coming and will likely intensify as we move farther into the hurricane season, there is still warm water over the Atlantic Basin. Water temperatures, although not as warm as in recent years at this time of year, are still above average in the western Caribbean, Gulf of America and a large part of the western Atlantic. Currently, temperatures are below average across the eastern Atlantic, but these waters should warm significantly as we move through the summer months.

Is there anything being watched.

On satellite there is a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf, looking at the wind shear profile and available atmospheric moisture in the Gulf there shouldn’t be any real development in this over the next 4 to 5 days.

There are a few tropical waves over the ITCZ, there is a bigger one that just came off the West Coast of Africa that bears watching. 

I want to thank you for all of you following my post. It is slowly (ever so slowly) growing through word of mouth and all y’all sharing the post. It means a lot. Thank you!

That’s it for today.