Update on the Thanksgiving Day and Posy Holiday Weather

The models are starting to show less divergent solutions in the Wednesday Night through Black Friday period as it relates to the TGD weather pattern.

I do like that the GFS is similar to its GEFS mean. There is some similarity amongst the GFS/UK/NAM in one camp with the EC the outlier on the track of the low through the Great Lakes around the holiday though the GFS may be too deep on both the pressure of the surface LP as well as the H500 low's height.

Most of the models continue show rather strong confluent flow across the NEUS during the Wed-TGD period. The forecast 850 temperature field from both the EC:

 

and GFS

 continue to show a cold air damming (CAD) signature across East-central NYS to Western New England ,I would think that the probability of frozen precip at the start of the event is quite good for a sizable portion of NYS. I would expect the southern periphery to extend from from WNY (the NY/PA border) to the Catskills and Hudson Valley around Albany then towards S VT. Right now I would think that the start of any precip would be late afternoon to sunset over the west and around 2-6 am in the east. Areas from about ART to GFL may not see the precip arrive until during TGD while areas to the north and northeast of this line may see little if any precip at all.With the system looking like it is occluding over the Great Lakes on TGD and with this CAD signature remaining in place on both models (GFS being the strongest). There should be some sort of at least a weak LP development (if not two) east of the primary. I would favor one on the warm front with a second possible LP development on the triple-point (TP). Looking at the 12z GFS data in WINGRIDDS and running a macro that I like to use that shows where LP (secondary) LP development might occur it is pointing towards a weak secondary on the warm front LI/LI Sound/SNE Coastal Waters (west of Block Island's) longitude. This also fits well with synoptic climatology that indicates when a closed H700 hPA low tracks along and north of a Chicago-Cleveland-Montreal line any secondary development tends to occur along the coast to the east through northeast of the primary surface cyclone.

Looking at the ageostrophic winds the forecast data continues to show N-NE ageostrophic flow of around 10-15 kts for the NE corner of NYS from about Ogdensburg to Gloversville-Glens Falls-Rutland on Thursday :

So I would think that within this area either all snow or a mix would occur. BUFKIT temperature tool indicates a fairly sharp temperature gradient pretty much N-S oriented with coldest temps near the US/CAN border and warmest heading south.

On the other hand owing to how the pattern looks (SW-WSW flow aloft and confluent flow) I think QP will average around or less than 1/3 rd of an inch; some isolated near ½ inch amounts may occur south Albany in the HV and maybe across the Western Adirondacks where some orographic enhancement in the SW to WSW flow may occur. In general I would think that there will be north-south gradient to the qpf with lesser amounts to the NW-N of the above area and more along and south to southeast of the above area.

As for the post-holiday weather: It still looks like a good (significant LES) event but a colleague and friend of mine may be right in that it may not be as long a duration event as some (including myself) were thinking.

In addition the bands may shift around during the Friday thru Sunday period and I think that both the belts to the east of LO and LE will be vying for who gets the most. I'm beginning to think it will be a good competition but I'm starting to think that LE snowbelts MAY actually win out over the LO ones.

(Though my caveat is that it it is still too far away to really commit to a definite forecast). I'll address this in a separate update as we get closer to the expected event.I can envision some of my flow meteorologist and knowledgeable weather hobbyists getting involved in this update.

Thanksgiving Day Weather for Albany, NY & My Reminisces of Working on TGD

A brief climatology of Thanksgiving Day (TGD) weather for Albany, NY:

The warmest 1883 a high of 68 degrees and a low of 56, giving the warmest daily mean of 62.
The coldest was 1901 with a maximum temperature of  19 degrees, as well as, the coldest daily mean temperature of 15 degrees. The lowest minimum temperature was 5 degrees set in 1972.

The wettest TGD for Albany: 1886 - 1.77 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation ( 8" of snow was observed on this day).

Not too far behind this  particular TGD was 1971 with its 1.64 inches of melted precipitation which on this holiday was all snow and the most for Albany for TGD: 21.8 inches! (The snow actually started on Thanksgiving Eve ( the night of the 24th) thus the storm total was 22.5".)

Looking at the 20 greatest snowstorms of all-time for Albany this snowstorm  ranks as the 8th greatest single snowfall amount from one storm and for November's top 10  snowstorms it ranks as #1.


First let me say, I usually work most Thanksgiving Days  and I really don't mind it either. I'll work my "normal" shift that entails me doing NEWS10 in the Morning and NEWS10 at Noon then home for TGD dinner in the afternoon.

The "joke" about working TGD is that as far as the weather goes its an every other year thing, that is on alternating years the weather is either "active" or "benign".  (Last year's TGD weather was "benign" this year's may be "active" or at the very least not the best weather for the holiday.  I'll be updating this blog a lot over this weekend and upcoming days about this year's holiday and post holiday weather as it does look "interesting" for sure.)

Now for a bit of reminiscing on what had to be one of the wildest days that I ever have worked at WTEN . It was on Thanksgiving Day 2004!

The morning was warm and muggy for late November and I remembered driving in to work through areas of patchy dense fog and I also remember leaving early to get into work because there was the chance that it could prove to be a busy day.

Here's a bit of a clue as to why: The high temperature that TGD was 64 degrees (the 2nd warmest TGD on record for Albany) the low later that day was 30!

In a nutshell a strong area of low pressure and its associated cold front moves across Eastern NY State and Western New England resulting in a high wind and severe weather event late that Thanksgiving Day morning.
I remember saying on air that early morning to those who were watching that "I am not crazy but there is the chance for severe thunderstorm's this TGD!"

All told nearly 60,000 + customer lost power that day after the severe squalls moved through. Especially hardest hit were Saratoga, Washington and Rensselaer Counties in NY State. The power interruption became th big news story of the day: Folks whose homes were all electric scrambling to find a place to either cook their TGD dinner or somewhere to eat.

Below is a map from SPC on the severe weather reports  for that day along with a list of the reports and a "loop" of the hourly surface reports from that day.

SPC Storm Reports
1200 UTC November 25, 2004 - 1159 UTC November 26, 2004 20041125's Storm Reports

Note: All data are considered preliminary
Tornado Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
Hail Reports (in CSV format)
Time	Size	Location	County	State	Lat	Lon	Comments
1320	75	OLD FORGE	LACKAWANNA	PA	4137	7574	(BGM)
1512	75	GALWAY	SARATOGA	NY	4302	7403	PENNY SIZE HAIL AT PROVIDENCE (ALY)
Wind Reports (in CSV format)
Time	Speed	Location	County	State	Lat	Lon	Comments
1340	UNK	CARBONDALE	LACKAWANNA	PA	4157	7551	NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN (BGM)
1345	UNK	BEACH LAKE	WAYNE	PA	4160	7515	TREES AND WIRES DOWN (BGM)
1345	UNK	EQUINUNK	WAYNE	PA	4185	7522	TREES AND WIRES DOWN. TRAILER FLIPPED. (BGM)
1420	UNK	JEFFERSONVILLE	SULLIVAN	NY	4178	7493	TREES AND WIRES DOWN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY (BGM)
1430	UNK	HANCOCK	DELAWARE	NY	4195	7528	TREE DOWN (BGM)
1512	UNK	HURLEY	ULSTER	NY	4191	7406	TREES AND WIRES DOWN (ALY)
1512	UNK	HARDENBURG	ULSTER	NY	4200	7467	TREES AND WIRES DOWN (ALY)
1512	UNK	MALTA	SARATOGA	NY	4297	7379	TREES AND WIRES DOWN (ALY)
1540	UNK	TAGHKANIC	COLUMBIA	NY	4214	7368	TREES DOWN. (ALY)
1545	UNK	SALT POINT	DUTCHESS	NY	4181	7379	TREES AND WIRES DOWN (ALY)
1600	UNK	SADDLE BROOK	BERGEN	NJ	4090	7410	TREES DOWN CAUSING DAMAGE TO PRIVATE HOMES (OKX)
1605	UNK	SCHODACK CENTER	RENSSELAER	NY	4255	7368	TREES DOWN (ALY)
1635	UNK	CLARENDON	RUTLAND	VT	4352	7297	RUTLAND STATE POLICE REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN CLARENDON AND SHREWSBURY. (BTV)
1635	59	RUTLAND	RUTLAND	VT	4361	7298	(BTV)
1641	UNK	LANESBOROUGH	BERKSHIRE	MA	4252	7323	WIRES DOWN (ALY)
1645	UNK	GOSHEN	ORANGE	NY	4140	7433	TREES AND BILLBOARDS DOWN ON RT.17 AND HARRIMAN DRIVE CAUSING DAMAGE TO COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS (OKX)
1715	UNK	CABOT	WASHINGTON	VT	4441	7231	MIDDLEBURY STATE POLICE REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR CABOT AND MARSHFIELD. (BTV)
1810	UNK	3 SW LISBON	GRAFTON	NH	4418	7195	LIMBS AND POWERLINES BLOWN DOWN ON MOSES CLARK ROAD. (GYX)
1815	UNK	1 NW LITTLETON	GRAFTON	NH	4432	7178	TREES BLOWN DOWN ON NORTH LITTLETON ROAD. (GYX)
Full report in comma-separated values (CSV) format
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")

Java Loop of surface reports for TGD 2004

An excellent write-up on the severe weather of that day was done by Tom Wasula a meteorologist at the NWSFO in Albany, NY. Here is a link to his write-up: Wind and Severe Wx Event from TGD 2004

In the wake of the severe weather strong NW to W winds prompted wind advisories to be issued for the afternoon and evening hours of that day and to top it all off, after the morning warmth and severe weather many locations across Eastern New York and Western New England saw brief snow showers or flurries that TGD night!

Well its time to check the latest Saturday AM data to see what will or won't happen this upcoming TGD. I'll likely have another blog update later today (probably late tonight).

A Cornucopia of Weather for Thanksgiving Week for Eastern NY State

Interesting possibilities in our weather for next week especially as we gear up for the Thanksgiving Holiday period along with all the travel that goes along with this time of year.

(Note of advice: When a weatherman or meteorologist uses "interesting" with an upcoming forecast it could mean not "so" good weather is heading our way).

A very active jetstream across the Western US this weekend will give rise to bouts of stormy weather across the country as we head towards the holiday period. Initially the worst weather will be across the Rockies and Plains States this weekend through Monday then these areas will likely see a turn to much colder air. As a matter of fact the first incursion of Arctic air will spill down across the Rockies and Northern Plains by late Monday through Wednesday.

As this arctic air plunges south and southeastwards early next week the active storm pattern and cold will begin to shift east towards the Eastern US by Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day (TGD). The cold front will advance east and reach the Eastern Great Lakes  and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Ahead of this cold front mild air and clouds will start off the week for Eastern Upstate New York. There could be some showers on both Monday and Tuesday (especially on Tuesday) as the cold front gets closer and moves through.

This cold front is expected to move off the Northeast coast by late Tuesday/early Wednesday with colder air filtering in behind. The front is also forecast to stall during Wednesday along a line from the offshore waters of the Mid-Atlantic States across Southern Virginia to northern Texas. It is along this front that a series of low pressure systems will form and move east-northeast to northeast across the Eastern Great Lakes or perhaps New England.

For Wednesday, the "big" travel day before the holiday, most of the day now looks like it will be colder and mostly cloudy but dry. By Wednesday late afternoon/evening time it looks like the first wave of low pressure will be moving to southwest PA and this could spread an initial period of light precipitation across the Southern Tier of NY to Albany. With colder air over these locations this precipitation could very well be a wintry mix of sleet and snow perhaps even some pockets of freezing rain. This precipitation could last into early TGD morning, perhaps even nudging north by then into the Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks and Lake George regions where it could fall as a light snow.

A second more potent low pressure system is then forecast to follow this initial one during the TGD and track across the Eastern Great Lakes. This second low will result in a steadier precipitation to overspread all of interior NY State during the holiday. Initially it could be of a wintry variety but with a low track across Western New NY State a change to rain should occur.

However, if a secondary area of low pressure develops along the Delmarva Peninsula (and this is a very distinct possibility) then colder air could remain locked in along and north of the Mohawk Valley-Albany-Southern Vermont line, keeping the precipitation either a wintry mix or perhaps even all snow!

Our weather prediction computer models are offering a variety of possibilities and scenarios to the holiday period weather. So all that I can say as of right now, I'll be updating this this blog  so make sure to follow it as well as your local weather forecasts, too. We should be able to get a better grip on what will happen as we get closer to the event.

Another thing to watch out for over the TGD weekend is the potential for the seasons first significant "lake-effect" snows to develop downwind of  Lakes Erie and Ontario. I believe the potential is there for some locally very heavy snow to fall across the "favored" snowbelts of NY State. This will likely be the subject of another blog update later in the week.