Weekly post for the week ahead!

 

Monday through Saturday is going to see increasing chances for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms.  Tuesday and Saturday will have the greatest chance of seeing more in the way of widespread thunderstorms.

We’re also going to see a return of some wildfire smoke into parts of the region, as winds start to usher in higher temperatures and higher dew points.

Today we have low pressure off the coast, this is keeping the coastal plain cooler due to that onshore flow, but inland more sun is allowing temperatures to be a little warmer

Surface chart and radar.

 

We have a weakening cold front dropping out of Canada. This is going to set off pop up rain showers across New York State today.  I can rule out a few heavier downpours. This shower chance is widely scattered through, so many of us will likely get through the day dry. For most of y’all thunderstorms should be non-severe. There will also be isolated showers and storms across parts of Maryland today. For eastern Maryland some of these thunderstorms could be on the strong side later this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk across most of eastern Maryland.

 

The beginning of next week brings a pattern shift. The Southwest into Texas Panhandle, up through the southern Plains are going to see several days of air at or above 105°F. as shortwave energy with storms move along the northern edge of this heat dome across the Plains, the risk for severe weather will expand east early this week. As we’ve seen several times this summer, once again we will see thunderstorm complexes move over the dome along a corridor spanning from northern portions of the Plains through the Midwest, Great Lakes and eventually into the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Scattered rain showers and storms will develop this afternoon/evening.

Monday should start off dry with showers and storms developing into the afternoon and evening. High pressure will push east and exit the region, this will allow the winds to become southernly, temperatures and dew points should rise through the day as well, as a system approaches from the west-northwest and drops south and east out of the Great Lakes, thunderstorms will be likely across western into central parts of New York State and Pennsylvania. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has the Ohio Valley into far western Pennsylvania and extreme southwest New York State under a slight risk for severe weather. The timing of this looks to be primarily during the evening into Monday night The biggest threats are for damaging winds, large hail. The SPC drops the risk to Marginal across the rest of Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic.  The conditions needed for tornado activity is low, stay weather aware during the nighttime storms.

 

Then a slow-moving area of low pressure a leading warm front followed by a cold front, will significantly raise the threat for thunderstorm Tuesday into Wednesday as this more potent system approaches, there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday across the Middle Atlantic into southeast New York State. The SPC has a Slight Risk up for Maryland, Delaware into far southern New Jersey and edges into southwest Pennsylvania, Interstate 95 corridor will be at risk for damaging wind gust, Hail, and heavy downpours will be a concern. There is a Marginal Risk for much of Pennsylvania, the rest of New Jersey, into far southeast New York including New York City and Long Island.  North of here across the rest of New York State and Central/southern New England there will be an issue for heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding.  for Maine it will likely be staying generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, but rain chances will increase for Tuesday evening/night.

 

Don’t be surprised if the SPC expands the risk for Monday and Tuesday.

The low pressure is going to track north and east on Wednesday. We will have to see if something tries to form along the Middle Atlantic Coast.   A series of troughs moving through will keep the pattern a bit unsettled and generally cooler for the 2^nd half of the week. Scattered shower and storm chances will last through Thursday, Friday and Saturday. We will see another frontal system approach for later Friday and Saturday. This will increase the risk for some rain showers and thunderstorms.

The core of the heat dome will span the Plains into the Midwest. Then this high-pressure-dome will eventually shift back west, temperatures are expected to stay well above historical averages across the Plains through mid-August. The east should be generally cooler with more in the way of seasonal temperatures. 

 I hope y’all have been or will be reading yesterday’s El Nino post, it covers a lot of ground going forward.

El Nino is really ramping up right now.

 

It’s been a while since I talked about El Nino and other teleconnections.  So, I wanted to talk about it again. As it will be a bid deal going forward.

This post is very long and will go into El Nino and how it’s evolving, it will also touch on the historical impacts of El Nino based on overall strength. I will try to draw some conclusions on what this could mean for winter 2026-2027.

What is El Nino?

I’ve posted many times what El Nino is and what defines a weak El Nino from a very strong one.

But here is a quick refresher.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO is a recurring Pacific climate pattern that shifts ocean temperatures and disrupts tropical wind and ocean currents, weather patterns, and temperatures across the globe. The ENSO consist of El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina.

One way the ENSO phase is diagnosed is by using observations of sea surface temperatures in different regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperature (SST) departure from average in the Nino 3.4 region.

El Nino is the warm phase of the ENSO. During an El Nino, western trade winds weaken in the Pacific Ocean, this allows warm surface water to move west across the equatorial Pacific towards South America. This allows the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to become warmer than average.  That increased warmth can alter atmospheric circulation and impact the position of the jet stream across North America.

The ENSO is considered neutral when the Nino-3.4 index is +0.4°C to – 0.4°C

An El Nino is very Strong if the Nino-3.4 index is over +2.0°C (nicknamed a "super" El Nino).

Strong is when the Nino-3.4 index is at least 1.5°C

Moderate is when the Nino-3.4 index is at least +1.0°C

And weak is when the Nino-3.4 index is at least +0.5°C

What’s happening now with the El Nino

The 2026 El Niño has moved beyond the “developing” stage. The Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are now strongly coupled, and the latest multi-model forecasts show a rapidly intensifying event that could rank among the strongest since modern records began

As of 20 July 2026, the equatorial Pacific is warming: the weekly Nino-3.4 index stands at +2.1 °C which is in El Nino territory, while the official three-month ONI for Apr–Jun 2026 is +0.98 °C, which is showing a moderate El Nino. For this reason, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has us in a El Nino Advisory in effect. NOAA Issues this when El Nino or La Nina conditions are observed and expected to continue. NOAA is giving El Nino a 97–99% chance of persisting and strengthening through the upcoming winter, with a roughly 60% chance it reaches “strong” territory in Nino-3.4.

Images from the latest NOAA El Nino discussion

Another factor to think about.

 

Atlantic Nino

The Atlantic has something that is very similar to El Nino. This is called the Atlantic Nino and is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern equatorial basin and weaker-than-average trade winds throughout the east-central equatorial Atlantic. The opposite is an Atlantic Nina and is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern equatorial basin. Like the ENSO the Atlantic Nino/Nina swings between warm and cool phases every few years. In most years the temperature profile between El Nino/La Nina is similar.  Atlantic Nino/Nina, where the two can be in the same warm phase, or they can have opposite phases. The Atlantic Nino/Nina tends to be overall much weaker than ENSO and has less impact on the Climate.

Strong summer Atlantic Nino events are much more common than strong summer Atlantic Nina events are uncommon.  Those tropical Atlantic SST are running around 1°C to 3°C below average across the Atlantic Nina area. So, this is considered a strong event.

This summer we’re seeing a very rare cooling event in the tropical Atlantic This has emerged just as El Nino continues to strengthen in the Pacific.

The same report said current with the cooling linked to strengthened trade-wind-driven upwelling. Forecast output cited by Severe Weather Europe shows the cool Atlantic anomaly lasting into late August, while Pacific El Niño anomalies continue to intensify.

Satellite shows that cold pool in the Atlantic, while it also shows that very warm El Nino anomaly continues building across the Pacific.

El Nino’s warmer-than-average waters in the Pacific can cause more sinking air over the Atlantic and increase wind shear, which can lower Atlantic tropical activity. At the same time, a cooler tropical Atlantic associated with Atlantic Ninna can reduce the amount of heat and moisture available to fuel thunderstorms in one of the key regions where hurricanes develop. With the El Nino in the Pacific and the Nina in the Atlantic, could help farther suppress Atlantic hurricane development this season. This could make the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, even quieter than we would expect even during a strong El Nino.  But a quiet season doesn’t mean there can’t be tropical impacts. 1992’s Hurricane Andrew is evidence of that.

If the Atlantic Nino persist into Winter 2026–27; it will pair with a possible strong El Nino. This could increase the risk for more frequent and intense winter storms, with a mix of snow, ice, and rain depending on the timing of different air masses.  If this persists it could Increase the chance for more of a stormy, wet winter in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic than we would expect to see during El Nino. There is a chance it could extend the length of the Northeast winter season into early spring.

 Rest of Summer into this Fall.

The Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic region has already been seeing the impacts of the developing El Nino.  We’ve seen an up and down pattern, but June and July has seen a few hot and very humid stretches.  an increase in severe storms, that has resulted in quite a bit of flooding.  

This kind of pattern is typical during a developing El Nino.

With the El Nino continuing to strengthen, it will have even more impact during the end of Summer and Fall.  So, the region will experience more bouts of above-average warmth and humidity. which can sometimes contribute to increased precipitation across the Northeast. I expect to see the increased risk of frequent thunderstorms, due to the parade of frontal systems to continue.  This should allow the northeast and Middle Atlantic region is see overall above average temperatures and average to above average precipitation through the Fall.  With the chance for heavy rain at times, Possible flooding will be a concern. With the setup, the Northeast and Middle Atlantic are going to continue to see severe weather outbreaks, as all this evolves.   

 

What about Winter?

The Arctic ice melt season is underway, and right now, sea ice extent over the Bering Strait and Arctic Ocean is slightly lower than it was at this time last year.  How much sea ice remains at the end of the melt season remains to be seen.  The amount of ice will have an impact on winter 2026-2027. We will have to wait until October to find out how the ice looks and how the snowpack builds in Siberia for the answer.  

 

 Winter impacts for this El Nino

How will the ENSO impact our weather patterns across North America and specifically here in the Northeast this upcoming winter? I will touch on the general winter outcome during a strong El Nino.

The jet stream is one of the biggest drivers of weather during the winter when it drives major winter storm development.

Even with El Nino, the colder air will return to North America, that temperature contrast is going to lead to a screaming subtropical jet. During El Nino we also usually see the northern Polar jet stream shoved well north into Canada. This helps lock out that cold over northern Canada. The setup normally has the Pacific storm track shift south. Which leads to increased precipitation across California and the southern US into the Southeast. At the same time the Northern half of the United States is prone to seeing warmer and dry conditions.

 El Nino’s Likely Impact on the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic this Winter

This El Nino is expected to peak in late fall and early winter, making it one of the strongest on record since 1950. The strongest El Nino’s on record were 1877–1878, 1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016. The El Nino of 1877–1878: Considered the strongest El Nino ever recorded, while this currently El Nino is expected to be very strong, there is still some uncertainly on that. But many climate models are showing the 2026-2027 being at least as strong as the 1877–1878 if not stronger.

 Looking at the strongest El Nino’s over the last 44 years. We come up with 1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016. While no two El Nino’s are the same, we can draw some general conclusions by looking at temperature and precipitation anomalies from those years.

 

Temperature trends

During El Nino winters, the jet stream configuration typically brings warmer, drier air from the Pacific into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This often results the Northeast generally experiencing warmer-than-usual conditions. However, precipitation patterns are much more unpredictable. Here’s an imaging showing the typical El Nino pattern over North America.

 

Regional differences

 

Coastal New England: Warmer temperatures, more variable snow, and possible and wetter conditions in some years.

Atlantic coast: Warmer air masses from the Gulf Stream can keep coastal areas milder and wetter in some winters.

Interior and higher elevations: May see more snow than coastal areas, but still likely less than normal for a strong El Nino year.

On average, the stronger the El Nino episode, the warmer and wetter the winters have been

What does a stronger El Nino typically mean for snowfall? The map below from NOAA shows how far above and below average snowfall has been during a typical strong El Niño January through March period.

You can see quite a split in the Northeast. While much of the interior Northeast from western Pennsylvania to parts of New England trend less snowy, parts of the mid-Atlantic from southern New Jersey to Virginia and the southern Appalachians have tended to be much snowier in a stronger El Niño winter.

Snowfall departures from average during moderate to strong El Nino January-March periods. Areas in brown typically have seen less snow, while those in blue have seen more snow.

But it's not just the strength of the El Nino. El Nino isn't the only factor influencing the winter weather pattern. Other ingredients could throw a monkey wrench into this snowfall scenario.

One of the main reasons for this verbality has to do with high latitude blocking (Greenland Blocking). This typically occurs during a negative NAO.

When high pressure aloft forms near Greenland, it blocks the west-to-east flow of the jet stream, forcing it to take a sharp southward plunge into the eastern U.S. This pattern delivers ample cold air from Canada and sometimes is an instigator for East Coast snowstorms.

How often this pattern develops in any winter season is challenging to figure out months ahead of time. But if it sets up frequently during a stronger El Nino winter, parts of the Northeast can have a colder, snowier winter.

The area of blocking high pressure near Greenland forces a southward plunge in the jet stream across the eastern states when the North Atlantic Oscillation is in its negative phase. This leads to persistent cold temperatures and the potential for East Coast snowstorms.

Even a stronger El Nino doesn't necessarily guarantee strong impacts on the weather pattern.

Here’s what the data shows. We examined seasonal snowfall totals during nine strong El Ninos since 1950 for several Northeast cities.

When we break down nine seasons into those which also had frequent Greenland blocking (three seasons) and those that had a lack of blocking (six seasons). Admittedly, it's a rather small sample size. There where big differences.

For the Middle Atlantic Region

Both Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., saw generally more snow on average in a strong El Nino winter.

These composites are further broken down by the strength (weak, moderate and strong) of the El Nino episode. Based on the small dataset, there is some historical correlation between the strength of the warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and seasonal temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall locally at Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Weak El Nino winters averaged below normal temperatures and precipitation, while strong El Nino episodes averaged above normal temperatures and precipitation. These findings can partly be linked to a stronger than average sub-tropical jet that typically occurs during moderate to strong El Nino winters, which would favor more active storm systems moving northward from the south that draw warm, moist air northward as opposed to the drier Alberta clippers from the northwest. Seasonal snowfall averaged above normal, especially for moderate El Nino episodes.

Not all El Nino winters are alike as many other shorter [e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA)] and longer-term climate patterns influence the local weather. For example, the moderate El Nino episode during the 2009-10 winter was associated with record-breaking seasonal snowfall in the mid-Atlantic region. Although it might seem (based on the 2009-10 winter) that all moderate El Nino winters in Washington D.C. and Baltimore are linked to above normal snowfall, these atmospheric quantities have been variable each winter. Of the seven strong El Nino winters since 1950, four have been associated with well above average snowfall while snowfall was virtually absent in the other three winters.  

I​-95 Contrasts

Snowfall is generally less during a strong El Nino winter from New York City northward. Boston saw an average reduction of almost 25% in snowfall during a strong El Nino. It is typically a different story in the mid-Atlantic states. Both Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., saw markedly more snow on average in a strong El Niño winter.

Strong El Nino winters with frequent Greenland blocking (labeled as -NAO in the graph below) were much snowier than average in New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. But, as alluded to earlier, there were only three such winters since 1950. By contrast, strong El Ninos without much Greenland blocking were far less snowy than average along the I-95 corridor.

Seasonal snowfall during all strong El Ninos (yellow bars), strong El Ninos without Greenland blocking (red bars), strong El Ninos with frequent Greenland blocking (blue bars), compared to 1950-2023 average (gray bars) in four major Northeast cities along the Interstate 95 corridor.

Interior Northeast

 

Over the rest of the Northeast, there was generally less snowfall during stronger El Ninos in most areas, consistent with the map we showed earlier. Most of these areas were saw similar ups and downs in snowfall due to strong El Nino winters with frequent/little Greenland blocking, respectively. So strong El Nino with little Greenland blocking saw lower snowfall amounts. The notable exception was in northern Maine. While each strong El Nino exhibited an average reduction in snowfall of around 10% in Caribou, Maine, the amount of Greenland blocking didn't make much difference there. (I’m not really sure why)

Same as the previous graph, but for interior Northeast cities from Pennsylvania to Maine.

Will this winter be a repeat of 1997-1998.

The super El Nino brought unusually warm temperatures and below-normal snowfall across much of the Northeast, with notable exceptions in the form of extreme ice storms

The winter of 1997-1998 in New England and northern New York State was marked by extreme ice storms and heavy snow at times, with the January 1998 ice storm being the most catastrophic event. That ice storm was a series of five successive ice storms hit northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine from Jan 5–9, 1998, Ice accumulations reached up to 4 inches in some areas of northern NY and SE Canada, with 3/4–2 inches in northern New England. The winter of 1997–1998 in Pennsylvania was dominated by that strong El Nino event, which brought unusually warm temperatures and below-normal snowfall across much of the state. The Appalachians was a notable exception as they saw above to well above average snowfall.

During the winter of 1997-1998 the Coastal Plain and the I-95 saw very little snow.

Across the northern Great Lakes, the 1997–98 El Nino’s, it was a very mild and dry winter, with record-low ice cover and above-average lake temperatures, reduced lake effect snow totals compared to normal years, making it a winter with unusually weak LES for the area.

The 1997–98 saw the lowest Great Lakes ice cover over the lakes since systematic records began in 1960.

The snowbelt regions downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, likely will be cold enough at times to get lake effect snowstorms, Past winters that featured a strong El Nino saw average to slightly below average snowfall. But do the variable temperature pattern it was hard to keep much of a snowpack. Winter 2026-2027 could see a similar problem. But while the first part of the winter was extremely snow free. There was a huge lake‑effect snow event in Tug Hill during the 1997–1998 winter. It occurred on January 11–12, 1997, when a massive storm produced a 77‑inch, 24‑hour snowfall at Montague, NY National Centers for Environmental Information. This was the highest recorded 24‑hour snowfall in the United States at the time, but a federal review committee later concluded it did not meet official standards for a national record Rutgers University Climate Lab.

1997-98 saw very little snow in the coastal Plain of the Middle Atlantic and New England. The I-95 corridor ended up with very little snow. For the winter season from December 1997 through February 1998, Washington, D.C. recorded only 0.1 inches of snow for the entire season, Philadelphia recorded a total of 0.8 inches of snow for the season, NYC’s total for the entire winter was 5.5 inches. Boston ended up better with Boston recorded 56.8 inches. Much of this is the result of late season blizzards.

For Maryland, the 1997–1998 winter was mild and wetter than normal, with above-average temperatures and precipitation. The El Niño climate pattern brought a generally warmer, wetter season, with only occasional cold snaps and snow events. The region avoided the extreme cold or flooding seen in other parts of the country, but residents experienced more rain and occasional icy conditions.

What does all of this tell us about this winter?

Here is a look at a typical winter pattern during El Nino

NOAA has released their 3-month forecast for December, January, and February across the United States from 2026 to 2027. The forecast calls for above average temperatures and below average. 

Precipitation for the northern half of the United States, above average precipitation and near normal temperatures for the southern half.

Summary

Above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the East. This could increase the frequency of rain or mixed precipitation at lower elevations, but it does not rule out major snowstorms.

A strong southern jet stream can provide moisture for East Coast storms. If enough cold air is available, that moisture can produce a significant nor’easter. Without sustained cold, the same storm track may produce rain along the coast and snow farther inland or at higher elevations. Other very strong El Ninos have experienced things like this.

If this El Nino reaches its projected strength, the Northeast is likely to be milder and drier than average, with warmer temperatures and reduced snowfall compared to recent years. However, the exact outcome depends on the timing and strength of the jet stream, so forecasts will be updated as the season approaches.

Parts of the Great Lakes sit near where that drier northern signal is expected to setup, while the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the eastern United States are closer to the wetter southern storm track.

The snowbelt regions downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, likely will be cold enough at times to get lake effect snowstorms, Past winters that featured a strong El Nino saw average to slightly below average snowfall. But due to variable temperature patterns it was hard to keep much of a snowpack. Winter 2026-2027 could see a similar problem.

Coastal New England: Warmer temperatures, more variable snow, and possible and wetter conditions in some years.

Atlantic coast: Warmer air masses from the Gulf Stream can keep coastal areas milder and wetter in some winters.

Middle Atlantic Coast and I-95 corridor from Washington DC to Boston, will likely see a milder winter with average to lower-than-average snowfall, but that will depend on how strong El Nino gets.

Interior and higher elevations: May see more snow than coastal areas, but still likely less than average if this is indeed a strong El Nino year.

Depending on the timing of particular setups, several Ice storms are on the table. One or two of these could be crippling like we saw in 1998.  

The snowbelts off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, could see average to slightly below average overall snowfall. But with frequent times of milder temperatures a deep snowpack might be hard to come-by.

I know the hype just about everywhere is talking about super El Nino and this being the strongest in record history, signaling doom and gloom with massive impacts. But as I’ve shown many other variables can alter things.  While a very strong super El Nino is very possible, there is still a chance it won’t end up as strong as people think. Over the next several months we will see how things trend.

I hope you found this post interesting and educational. Please leave a comment on what you thought. And if you liked it, let others know and see it.

I will likely release the first outlook post on the 2026-2027 winter sometime in October.

 

 

 

 

Has the recent rainfall helped the areas experiencing drought?

 The Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic has experienced a mix of improving and persisting drought conditions.

(As per Drought Monitor) “Targeted improvements continued this week in locations that saw ample rainfall and improving streamflow, groundwater levels, and/or soil moisture. Extreme drought contracted on the Delmarva Peninsula, while severe drought shrank in eastern Massachusetts, Connecticut, southeastern New York, central New Jersey, northern Delaware, and southern West Virginia. Moderate drought eased in parts of southern Connecticut, southeastern Pennsylvania, southwestern New Jersey, and West Virginia. Abnormal dryness was erased from parts of northwestern Massachusetts, south-central Pennsylvania, western Maryland, and central West Virginia. However, abnormal dryness expanded slightly in southern Maine due to a lack of precipitation and reduced groundwater levels. The U.S. Drought Monitor released on July 23 showed 1% of the Northeast in extreme drought, 7% in severe drought, 13% in moderate drought, and 14% as abnormally dry compared to 1%, 8%, 13%, and 14%, respectively, last week. Noticing impacts from dry conditions in your area?”

For the rest of May, the region will likely see average to slightly below average temperatures. As far as precipitation the next few days look to stay dry. But then the region will see widespread scattered rain starting Sunday and lasting into Thursday.  

Climate Prediction Center 6–10-day outlooks

I will be posting an El Nino update soon; it will even talk about the upcoming winter. 

Hope your Friday is Good!

A few days of tranquil weather!

 If you like cool and boring weather this is your time.

The surface chart shows the cold front is well south and east of our region and is off the coast. High pressure has moved in and will be in complete control of our weather for the next few days. Radar shows nothing really going on, as the rain is out ahead of the front to our east and south. The region is seeing a lot of sun, but we do have some cloudiness over northern New England, due to a weak disturbance up in Canada. I can rule out a couple of rouge showers, but most of the region will stay dry, with slightly below average temperatures.

Tomorrow and Saturday will be much the same, with dry conditions, plenty of sun, with temperatures slightly warmer than today with low humidity.  

Saturday night a weak frontal system will be approaching out of the northwest. I can rule out a few isolated showers over western and northern New York State later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. But most won’t see them. The rest of the region should stay completely dry into Sunday. But as a weak front approach on Sunday isolated rain chances will increase along with the chance for a few thunderstorms.  Those with the best chance of seeing this will be from Northwest Pennsylvania up through northern New England.

Monday the region will be dealing with scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms move in overhead. This cold front will be the first in a series of cold fronts that will be moving through for much of next week, as an upper level low sits and spins. This will keep it unsettled for Tuesday into Thursday. 

High pressure will be moving in on Thursday, the cold front will be clearing the region, other than scattered rain showers over New England the majority of the region looks to be dry.

This high pressure will set us up for another long stretch of cooler temperatures and mostly dry conditions for Friday into most of next weekend. All of this keeps us on the cooler side for the end of the month.

  

Tropical Storm Bertha

 

Bertha is a low-end tropical storm (but just barely); her max sustained winds are around 45 mph, with a central pressure of 1004mb, moving west at 10 mph. With all the wind shear and dry air, I’m really surprised she has held on as long as she has.

The wind shear has most of her convection (thunderstorms) well south of her center. That is going to continue to be the case. This will keep most of her heavy rains offshore. But as she makes a second landfall near Galveston this evening, some of that heavier rain will make it into far southern Texas. The middle and lower coast of Texas coasts and some gusty winds and downpours, the rain will be greatest generally from around Corpus Christi and points south into the lower Rio Grande Valley. These areas could see 1-3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. But that part of Texas really needs the rain.  Once Bertha makes landfall move in land across Texas, she should quickly dissipate.

Bertha made landfall in southern Louisiana on Wednesday, so she's the second tropical storm to do so this season.  Arthur made landfall also on southern Louisiana, June 17^th.

Most likely no daily update tomorrow, due the quiet conditions. But I will likely make a post on the drought conditions and something on El Nino over the next couple of days. 

Have a great day!

 

A taste of Fall!

Last Saturday’s tornadoes

On the 18th the region had widespread severe weather, this resulted in hundreds of damage reports. There were also five or six tornadoes that hit the region.  Saturday certainly was a very severe outbreak!

The NWS Pittsburgh confirmed that four tornadoes touched down across Western Pennsylvania.

NWS State College, PA damage surveys

confirmed an EF-2 with estimated Peak Winds of 125 mph, touched down in Franklin Township, Huntingdon County with a path Length of 0.53 miles and with a maximum width of 500 yards.

A second damage survey conducted on Sunday July 19th confirmed an EF-1 tornado occurred in Whiteside, PA south of Houtzdale in Clearfield County, PA this one had estimated peak winds of 110 mph, with a track length of 1.0 miles with a maximum width of 400 yards.

The National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA also conducted damage surveys.

They confirmed a EF1 with estimated Peak Winds of 90 mph. it first touched down near Strattanville in Clarion County, PA and lifted in Summerville also in Clarion County, PA. the tornado tracked for 1.53 miles.

They also confirmed a second tornado of EF0 intensity that occurred from the same supercell as it touched down near Punxsutawney the tornado move into Latrobe in Westmoreland County, PA.  This tornado had an estimated Peak Wind of 75 mph, with a path length of 0.62 miles. It had a max width of 100 yards.

The NWS Binghamton also confirmed an EF-1 tornado touched down in New York State’s Southern Tier during Saturday's severe storms and moved across parts of Broome and Delaware counties. This tornado hit the Town of Hale Eddy and the Town of Hancock. It touched down near Sanford, Broome County, starting at EF‑0 strength. The tornado strengthened as it approached State Route 41 and Oquaga Creek to EF-1 intensity, with peak winds estimated at 95 mph This one was a long track tornado, being on the ground for nearly 20 minutes and carved a 15.69-mile path, with a and peak width was 300 yards.

The Storm Prediction Center is listing that an EF0 tornado touched down near Stanhope–Dorchester. The SPC says the tornado had an estimated wind speed of 80 to 85 mph. I can’t find any collaboration on the NWS Mount Holly site.

The National Weather Service listed several microbursts impacted the region, the winds ranged from around 70 mph to as much as 110 mph. 

This will go into last Saturday's severe weather, talk about the risk for today and touch on Tropical Storm Bertha.

Surface chart and radar.

 

 

We have that cold front still over the region slowly pushing east.  Ahead of the front we have hot and humid conditions, while behind it we have a taste of fall.  Ahead of the front we do have some rain showers.

 

There were dozens of damage reports across New York State, Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic Tuesday. There were at least three confirmed tornadoes during yesterday’s severe weather. One was in near Portersville in Butler County, PA. The other two were in Morris and Cape May Counties in New Jersey. NWS storm survey teams will be looking at the damage. I will give information when it’s available. 

The severe weather situation today won’t be nearly as widespread and will be less intense when compared to Tuesday.

Daytime heating will lead to increased instability with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s there will be favorable setup for scattered showers and storms, this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.

The severe weather threat has shifted eastward and southward. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather over most of Maine, southern Delaware and southeastern Maryland and New Jersey. With a Marginal Risk between them across eastern and southern New England. Long Island and New York City, New Jersey into the northern Middle Atlantic.

The main risk will be damaging winds. But hail and heavy rainfall will also be a concern. These storms should move fairly quickly, limiting the overall flooding concern. With that said, training thunderstorms will bring the risk for Flash Flooding. There is a low risk for an isolated tornado.

 Tonight, into tomorrow morning the cold front will be sliding offshore and south of the region. Outside of some lingering rain, that should be about it.

High pressure will be approaching tonight. Behind the cold front temperatures will become quite cool, with low temperatures in the 50’s and 40’s some of those normally colder areas across northern New York State and northern New England could get into the mid to upper 30’s.  The high pressure will move in overhead for Thursday Friday and over the Weekend. Providing beautiful weather with temperatures remaining average to slightly below average temperatures and low humidity. The high pressure will start to move off the coast on Sunday. But Sunday should still remain dry for most of y’all. There will be an approaching cold front. Ahead of the front western parts of the region could be a few isolated showers as early as Saturday evening/night with scattered showers moving in for Sunday afternoon.  This cold front will be slowly moving west to east across the region. Bringing the chance of rain showers with it.  For the first half of next week, a upper-level low will be hanging around with a couple of cold fronts dropping through. Keeping it unsettled with the threat for some showers and perhaps some thunderstorms in the forecast. Right now, no day is looking like a washout.

   

Tropical Storm Bertha

Bertha is being affected by considerable vertical northeasterly wind shear. The strong shear is giving Bertha a lopsided look.  All this shear has generally limited Bertha from strengthening a lot she is still a generally a weak tropical storm.  Bertha has max sustained winds of 50 mph, a central pressure of 998 mb and is crawling west-northwest at 6 mph. 

Looking at the satellite image,

 

We can see Bertha isn’t looking very healthy.  With most of the heavier convection (thunderstorms) well away from the center of circulation.

 

She should make a landfall on south Louisiana later today. Then she will be hanging around into tomorrow before she falls apart by tomorrow evening. Bertha should continue to slowly weaken today and tomorrow; she could at least lose tropical storms status if not fall apart before she makes it to the Texas coast. But we will see!  Either way, Bertha is unlikely to strengthen any further.

Bertha has been keeping her heaviest rainfall well offshore. That will continue to be the case today and tomorrow, wind shear will likely increase even more, so her thunderstorms should be pushed even farther offshore. 

Have a great day!

Tornado Watch 507

 

SEL7

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 507
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   205 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western Connecticut
     Northern Delaware
     New Jersey
     Central and Southern New York
     Western Pennsylvania
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity has recently increased from central
   New York across eastern Pennsylvania, in the vicinity of a warm
   front moving northward/northeastward across the region. Deep-layer
   shear is forecast to increase with some increase in low to mid-level
   flow as well. This increased shear could support some more organized
   storm structures capable of producing tornadoes as these storms
   continue eastward. Damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly
   as storms trend towards a more linear structure over time. Another
   round of storms is possible later this evening, and some severe
   threat will accompany these storms as well.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Albany NY to 20
   miles south southwest of Wilmington DE. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 506...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 27035.

   ...Mosier

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 506

 

SEL6

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 506
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   110 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Far Southeast Indiana
     Far Northern Kentucky
     Central and Southern Ohio
     Southwest Pennsylvania
     West Virginia

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
   afternoon as a pre-frontal trough and associated cold front moves
   through the region. Overall environmental conditions favor strong to
   severe thunderstorms, with a linear convective mode favoring
   damaging gusts as the primary risk. Low-level shear is also strong
   enough to support a low-probability risk for a few brief,
   line-embedded tornadoes as well.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
   statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles north
   northeast of White Sulphur Springs WV to 50 miles west northwest of
   Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
   associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27035.

   ...Mosier

Will today be a repeat of Saturday?

This will go into the severe risk for today and touch on Tropical Storm Bertha.

Surface chart and radar.

We have a low-pressure system over east central Canada. We have a leading warm front lifting into the region. We also have a strong negative tilted upper-level trough with a slow moving trailing cold front. The trough orientation is going to boost the severe potential.  How severe we get will depend on how quickly we can clear out the clouds.

We also have a few shortwave troughs out ahead of the warm front that are producing showers and some thunderstorms. These are currently moving into New England.

If these storms blow up over the Ohio Valley into western New York State and Pennsylvania that could limit the severity of the storms over the eastern half of the region.

The warm front will continue to move north and east and promote southern winds that is going to be bringing in very warm and juicy air, with dew points in the upper 60’s and 70’s.   There will be enough instability that a Saturday repeat is possible. The setup will support thunderstorm clusters and isolated embedded supercells. All of this is eerily similar to what we saw over last weekend.  

 

 

 

The Storm Prediction Center has the Enhanced Risk over most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. The Slight Risk is over far northern Pennsylvania, most of New York State, including NYC and Long Island as well as western Connecticut and extreme southwest Massachusetts

The risk will include damaging winds, torrential downpours, large hail, frequent lightning. There is also elevated tornado risk across most of Pennsylvania, Maryland Delaware, New Jersey, extending across southern New York State, including NYC and Long Island up into Central New York State. Training thunderstorms will bring the risk for Flash Flooding.

Those most at risk of seeing several rounds of widespread severe weather will be across Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic. For most of New York State into southwest New England, the risk should include a couple of broken lines with scattered thunderstorms, with isolated severe storms.  The severe risk over western New England will be Marginal, with a few strong to severe storms possible.

Morning showers and a few thunderstorms associated with the warm front, will give way to a higher number of showers and storms during the afternoon into well in the evening. The greatest time for severe storms will be 1 pm thru 11 pm.

 The I-95 Corridor could have a bad commute, if those wild cards don’t weaken the storm potential.  

Wednesday will still have that cold front slowly pushing east.

The Storm Prediction Center has Marginal Risk across eastern New England as well as northern and eastern Maryland, Delaware and far southern New Jersey. The Slight Risk is over southern Maryland and Delaware.

The primary area to worry about severe storms will be down across southern New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware into Virginia. There is a chance for strong storms in New England, but I think the risk is rather low, it’s certainly lower than it is in the northern Middle Atlantic Region.

 High pressure will be approaching tomorrow night; this will move in overhead for Thursday Friday and over the Weekend. Temperatures will be average to below average temperatures and low humidity. The high pressure will depart Sunday night. Then Monday a cold front will come through bringing a chance for showers and storms. Another cold front will come through on Wednesday again with the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

 

   

Tropical Storm Bertha

 

TD 2 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha last evening. She has max sustained winds of 50 mph, a central pressure of 997 mb and is crawling northwest at 5 mph.  

Looking at the satellite image,

 

 

Bertha is being affected by considerable north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. This shear will increase during the next couple of days. The strong shear is giving Bertha a lopsided look.  All this shear along with the dry air on the northern side. should limit Bertha from strengthening a lot before her center reaches the coast.  Most of the atmospheric moisture is south of Bertha.

The Gulf Coast will see tropical storm conditions from Alabama westward to southeastern Louisiana Tonight and Wednesday.

Regardless of farther development, Bertha is going to be a rain maker. But the good news is her highest rainfall totals will remain well offshore.

Those with Interests in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of Bertha.