One cold front moving through with another on the way!

The views have been dropping off lately, is there something I could be doing differently? 

We have that cold front dropping south across Pennsylvania and southern New England, ahead of the front there will be near to breaking record warmth, behind it’s still going to be fairly mild. We do have a few scattered showers ahead of and along the frontal boundary, with some isolated showers behind it. We will have high pressure set up for tomorrow, providing a dry and tranquil day.

We do have another system approaching out of the Midwest. A leading warm front will bring another surge of warmth for Thursday night into Friday morning; with the front there will be isolated rain showers and a chance for a few thunderstorms. But then the bottom drops out for Friday and the Weekend. A strong cold front will drop in for Friday.  As strengthening low pressure moves across the New York State tracking through the St. Lawrence Valley into Northern New England. Winds will turn out of the north and northwest.  With the cold front scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are likely, isolated storms could become strong to severe, with damaging wind gust the main threat.

Those with the greatest risk of seeing the severe storms will be over Southeast Pennsylvania, into New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware.

The Low pressure will move off the Coast where it will continue to deepen. It could end up reaching bombogenesis (bombing out) over the Canadian Maritimes. A storm bombs out when we see a pressure drop of 24+ millibars over a 24-hour period. If this happens, it could generate some very strong wind gust.  The biggest wind impacts will be along the immediate coast with wind gust up to 40–50 mph possible with 30–40 mph gust inland. The coldest air so far this season will drop in for Friday night and the Weekend, with temperatures running well below the long-term average.  This could be a big snowmaker for parts of eastern Canada. For our region most locations from will get rain and showers. But there will be snowflakes flying across parts of northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

Friday night into Saturday morning, rain transitions to wet snow above 1,500 feet across the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains accumulations of 1-3 inches look likely.  The highest elevations in the mountains could see 3-6 inches of snow, with a rain and wet snow mix extending down into lower elevation valleys with no real accumulation.

 Saturday will be cold with gusty northwest winds.  Wind will be 10-20 mph with gust looking to be 20-40 mph. the morning will be showery, with rain showers clearing late morning into the afternoon.   These northwest winds will usher even colder air into the region. Those winds will make it feel even colder. While the cold temperatures won’t be good for fall colors, the gusty winds will likely bring down quite a few leaves still on the trees. Then high pressure will build in bringing plenty of sunshine for Saturday night and Sunday. Skies will clear leading to a very chilly night. High pressure looks to be in control for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures slowly warming each day. The first half of next week looks to be mostly dry.

Have a great day!

 

Milder, with rain and storms then cold air moves in!

 

We have yet another strong storm is going to move into Alaska and the Northwest Territories. This is the same pattern we’re going to be seeing as we head through the winter. These large Aleutian Lows are the result of the cold air over Siberia into Alaska and those warm SST in the northern Pacific. The temperature contrast is creating a lot of kinks in the Pacific Jet. This is resulting on very deep troughing which ends up driving tropical moisture out of the Central Pacific northward into Alaska, Yukon and the Northwest Territories.  The Pacific Jet pushes the cold air into the Arctic, while warmer air moves into Canada due to the ridge that sets up due to the placement of the trough over the Aleutians. This is the main pattern I think we’re going to see on display for this winter. All of this will lead to a very strong southern Subtropical Jet with the storm pattern having the storm track going into California, instead of British Columbia and the Pacific Northeast. This will allow a lot of energy to track along the southern jet, then as shortwaves travel along the polar jet, these kinks in the stream could lead to phasing chances between the subtropical and polar jets.   Some of those disturbances in the southern stream will move up the East Coast, then if the cold air is in place, big nor’easters will be possible.

I laid all of this out in the first part of my winter outlook, so if you haven’t read it; I encourage you to do so!

Anyway, what about the Northeast this week.

 

 

Today is going to be mild but gloomy with widespread rain and downpours along with isolated thunderstorms, across New York State and northern into Central New England, this will be especially true for the western and northern parts of New York State. Some of these storms could be strong to severe; the main threat will be localized damaging wind gust and possibly a brief tornado. Here’s a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) thunderstorm outlook, they have a Marginal Risk over Western into Central New York State.  South and east of there will be scattered rain showers. The farther south and east you get the less rain you will see.  With the frontal boundary winds will be gusting up to 30-40 mph along and south and west of the boundary.

For Wednesday the cold front will slowly sag southward later in the day. As this drops south, some isolated showers will be possible across Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. Most of these showers should be spotty and shouldn’t amount too much. We will stay breezy for tomorrow.

Thursday High pressure will make for a mostly dry day, with seasonal temperatures. But the mild weather will be short lived as a strong cold front will drop in for Friday.  Friday will feature not only rain but up to 30 to 40 mph winds. Much colder air settles in behind the front on Friday. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will work through the region; some of these storms could be strong to severe. As the front drops south, a big area of low pressure will set up in the Canadian Maritimes.  As temperatures plummet behind the front, the coldest air of the season will drop in. With the cold air in place, snow showers in the higher elevations of northern half of New York State as well as central and northern New England; it's possible there could be some snow showers even in some of the lower elevations. Those with the best chance of seeing some accumulating snow will be the Tug Hill along with the Adirondack, Green and White Mountains. 

Saturday will stay cold, the colder air moving over the Lower Great Lakes, will allow for some lake-effect rain, and the potential for some mix/snow to develop downwind of both Erie and Ontario over the weekend. Skies will clear and winds will drop across the entire region Saturday night, setting up the potentially for a widespread frost and or freeze, for southern New York State Pennsylvania, and maybe even parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic could see the end of the growing season.

I've been doing a lot of work to get ready for the upcoming winter, So the scope of these posts are smaller than they have been. But I've been working them in for all y'all!

Have a great rest of your day.  

Topsy Turvey Week with Snow for some!

This week is going to be up and down and volatile with a chance for many kinds of weather. For the last few days, I’ve been talking about all of this, including the chance for some snow for some of us.

 

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

Today

We’re watching low-pressure slowly exiting the region. Today will be seasonably cool with just a chance for isolated rain showers. High pressure is setting up overhead. But its stay will be brief for today we’re going to see clearing develop west to east. We do have low pressure approaching the Great Lakes and Midwest.  The leading warm front could bring showers into western parts of the region tonight.  Ahead of that approaching Canadian cold front, those northern higher elevation areas could see some snow or snow/rain mix during the overnight.

The rest of the week.

The warm front will continue to advance through the region tomorrow; gusty southwest winds will bring in milder air. Wind gust of 20-25 mph will be possible. Those in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and NYC into New England, will see only a chance for a few isolated rain showers. But the farther north you are the greater your chance of seeing rain.  With the frontal passage, northern Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern and Central New England can expect scattered rain showers and some downpours along with isolated thunderstorms. These storms will have the potential to become strong to severe. The greatest risk will be damaging winds, but there is also a very slight tornado risk.    The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk for Severe Storms over western into central New York State.  

 

For our Wednesday, the cold front will continue to drop south through the region keeping things unsettled across New York State and northern/central New England, widely scattered rain showers will be dropping through Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey. Then the front will move back north. Then on Thursday high pressure will build in overhead. Providing clearer skies with seasonable temperatures. Then Friday will bring the chance for widespread wet weather.  We’re going to see a cold front move through on Friday, ushering in colder air for the weekend. The front will bring widespread rain showers and gusty winds along with the chance for isolated thunderstorms. With the cold air moving in, accumulating snow is likely for the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites along the northern Maine (especially Aroostook County) for Friday night into Saturday. but even the lower elevations may see some snowflakes Friday night into Saturday.

Tricky week ahead!

 

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

   

Today

We’re dealing with what’s left of Isaias. There are no real changes to what I’ve been saying for the last few days.  

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The rest of the week.

The weather for this current week is going to be tricky. But what happens over the 2^nd half of this week, is going to depend on what happens out west and how two tropical systems interact with an upper-level feature in the Pacific Northwest.

 

Tropical

I typically don’t talk about tropical activity in the Pacific. But in this setup we have to discuss it. 

 

Tropical Storm Rachel made landfall late Saturday night in northern Baja California and is now a remnant low over the Southwest. Rachel will continue to gradually weaken and turn to the northeast later today as it heads into southern Utah.

Hurricane Simon

Simon has strengthened to strong 145 mph Category 4 hurricane. Looking at the satellite image, we can see his eye is very close the coast between Playa Perula and Cabo Corrientes. Will this keep him from reaching Category 5? Maybe, maybe not. But that really won’t matter as far as impacts. Simon is dumping a lot of rain over parts of southwestern Mexico. Rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches will bring a lot of flooding.  Simon should continue to track northward along Mexico's coast. He should begin to gradually weakening and looks to become a tropical storm Tuesday. But if his core moves ashore quicker than expected he could weaken much quicker, as he interacts with the higher terrain. His remnants very well could move north into the U.S.

 

We have an upper-level trough sitting over the Pacific Northwest with a strong cold front pushing across the Divide. This is pulling tropical moisture northward. With the cold air that is in place this is bringing a lot of snow into southwest and west-central Montana, into Idaho and Wyoming. The snow is also making it into Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan. Most of this snow is above 4,000 feet.  For Montana, general snowfall today looks to be between 6 and 10 inches of snow through Monday morning.  When all is done, this weekend storm will bring 1 to as much as 4 feet of snow in the highest elevations, especially west of the Divide.

 

The upper-level low is going to work its way east. By Thursday what’s left of Simon is going to be pushing into the Central Plains, bringing tropical moisture with it. All of this looks to interact as things push into the Upper Great Lakes.  We’re going to have high pressure building over the Plains. This is going to allow the Middle part of the Country to warm to well above average. While this is going on colder air will be falling down the ridge axis into the Great Lakes, Midwest and East Coast.  The question is how cold does it get?  The GFS model is bringing in a lot of cold, with the trough extending down near the Gulf Coast. The EURO model is much less rambunctious with the dynamics.   The GFS is a bit farther west with the ridge than the EURO. All of this has big implications on what happens in the Northeast and Northern Middle Atlantic next weekend. 

The Northeast will see clearing develop west to east tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday will turn milder, but as low pressure develops it will turn breezy (gusts of 20 to 30 mph) for Tuesday and Wednesday as the cold front approaches the region. Tuesday will see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, as some of the moisture from Rachel gets mixed in. Then things will begin to cool off as Canadian air moves into the region. As the air gets colder Tuesday night rain showers will change over to a rain/snow mix over northern parts of the region, this will be especially true in the higher elevations above 2000 feet. The highest elevations could see a bit of accumulation. After a cold start on Wednesday temperatures will moderate and become quite mild.  This will clear to the east. As a trough builds in from the west.  We will cool back off again for Friday into the weekend. Then we will see another storm approach, this one will have moisture from Simon and likely some of Rachel enhancing things. How it turns out will depend on which model is correct. It will end up being a mix of what the GFS and EURO are thinking, but right now I think the EURO has the better handle on things. So, the northeast into the northern Middle Atlantic will become cool, likely cool enough for snow to mix in across New York State and northern into Central New England. Accumulating snow will be possible in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites.  

 

 

Nice today but we deal with Isaias tomorrow!

 Hurricane Isaias made landfall into the U.S. Gulf Coast as a dangerous Category 2 storm on Friday, at 9:30 PM EDT near Destin, Florida (around 48 miles east of Pensacola). With maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, just below major hurricane status.

Isaias was the strongest hurricane to hit this part of Florida/Alabamia since September 2020. Sally made a landfall in Gulf Shores, AL at 5am on Wednesday, September 16th as a strong Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. Isaias is also the first hurricane to strike the U.S. in two years.

He degenerated very quickly once moving inland and became a post-tropical cyclone with 35 mph winds

what’s left of the storm is bringing driving rain through the midsouth and southeast. The storm will keep pushing north over the next 36 hours.

For today 

Surface/radar/satellite chart

Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes remain possible in Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and the Carolinas through tonight. Today South Carolina into East Georgia is under a Slight Risk. For our region, today will be very pleasant, dry but cool day. Skies will be sunnier the farther north you go.

Sunday

The SPC brings the risk for severe thunderstorms and perhaps a few tornadoes into Northern Georga and the Carolinas tomorrow.  There is a chance for very isolated thunderstorms across southern New York State and southern New England and points south. 

Isaias's remnants will still bring rain and breezy conditions into the region for Sunday

 Wind

Across southwest Pennsylvania wind gust of 30-40 mph with gust upwards of 55 mph across the higher terrain.  Southeast Pennsylvania, Maryland Delaware, New Jersey, into New York City and Long Island Sunday look to see gust upwards of 30-40 mph. The rest of Pennsylvania and much of New York State into southern and central New England look to see wind gust of 10-30 mph. Farther north gusty winds of 5-20 mph will be possible

 

Rainfall

I went over rainfall in yesterday’s post. But generally, rainfall across southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, up into New York City and Long Island along with far southern New England including the offshore Islands 1-2 inches of rain is likely Sunday into Monday morning.  North of there up through central New York State and Central New England rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches. Northern New York State and northern New England .0.25 to 0.50 inches look likely.  

In all of these areas there could be locally higher amounts. Those that see the higher rain amounts could see some minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

General timing has a chance for rain showers working into Southwest Pennsylvania this evening, with rain working north from there tonight and Sunday. Rain would make it into Southern New York State Sunday morning. Then into Central New York State late morning early afternoon, into southwest New England between noon and midafternoon then Southeast New England mid to late afternoon. And northern New England Sunday evening to Sunday night.

Lingering rain will last across eastern New England into Monday morning (Columbus Day).

 

Monday will not be a washout, with clearing developing during the day. Then a cold front will come through for Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures and scattered rain showers. Northern parts of New York State and northern New England could see a rain/mix with some light accumulations in the highest elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites.

 

 

 

All eyes on Isaias!

Tropical Atlantic  

Isaias as of 4:00am, had max sustained winds of 110mph, min central pressure of 963mb, track north-northeast at 15 mph. as of 7:20 this morning he had max sustained winds of 120 mph, min central pressure of 959mb, tracking north-northeast at 16 mph.

Isaias has gone through two R.I. (Rapid Intensification) periods where sustained winds increased by at least 35 mph within 24 hours. So, as I’ve been indicating, Isaias has reached Category 3 status (major hurricane). But this should be his peak, now he should weaken a bit because of that increasing wind shear and dry air ahead of landfall. But he is still expected to be a strong category 2 hurricane at landfall.  Isaias is a rather small storm; generally tropical storm force winds extend 125 miles from the center with hurricane force winds reaching 25 miles from its center.

The track forecast is virtually unchanged, with a landfall somewhere right around midnight close to Pensacola FL.  Isaias’s inner core is now coming into radar range

The only big chance is that the surge forecast has been nudged up a bit.

 

The tornado risk tomorrow in the Southeast has been expanded. 

 

Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible in those areas.

What about impacts up in our region.

Here’s a look at the surface/radar chart.

 

There is an upper-level low west of Isaias over Texas. We also have a strong ridge sitting off the Southeast Coast.  This setup means Isaias will come due north and start to really speed up. This is also going to shove all that tropical moisture northward into the Tennessee Valley and then up the coast into the northern Middle Atlantic. The center of what left of Isaias, looks to pass over the Delmarva Peninsula. Because of the fast forward motion of this storm, it will rapidly weaken and lose its tropical characteristics. So, our region is not going to be dealing with a tropical storm. I know there are some social media sites hyping that tropical storm idea, but that is simply not the case.  But we will see some remnant moisture. How far north that moisture can get will be limited. As we’re going to see a ridge of high-pressure setup in Southeast Canada. At the same time that upper-level low is also going to come north and east, staying just west and north of Isaias’s track.

 The core of the heavier tropical moisture will stay over Maryland, Delaware into Southern New Jersey and the Delmarva. So, much of New York State and Northern and Central New England, won’t see too much tropical rain out of this.  

General rainfall amounts from Sunday morning to later Monday morning.

Rain will be moving southwest to northeast across the region.

For Southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Long Island and maybe New York City. 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain is possible. Across Southern New England (including the Cape and offshore islands), southern Hudson Valley, Northeast into Central Pennsylvania 0.5 to 1.5 inches.  North and west of there into the Central Hudson Valley, Catskills and south and east of the Mohawk Valley 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain, those north of there will see 0.25 or less inches.  These rainfall amount will be a combination of the remnants of Isaias and the upper-level low.

As for as winds, Sunday into early Monday, winds look to be 10-25 mph with a chance for some higher gust. The farther south, the stronger the wind. Monday afternoon into Tuesday will see all of this move away with clearing developing west to east.  Then on Tuesday into Wednesday a cold front will come through. Then on Thursday a warm front will lift through, followed by another cold front for Friday into Saturday.

 

 

 

Weak cold front moving through

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Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

  

Image curtesy of Tomer Burg/Polarwx.com

Today

Is going to be a great day overall.  Temperatures will cool off to around seasonal behind the front. Other than a chance for a few isolated showers the region should stay dry.

The rest of the week.

Tomorrow will be similar to today.  Then on Saturday high pressure will be right overhead. Providing a great day. Then we will be watching the remnants of Isaias approach out of the Tennessee Valley.

Tropical Atlantic  

Last evening at 10:30 pm, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded Tropical Storm Isaias to hurricane Isaias. Making him the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. At 10:30 pm, Isaias had max sustained winds of 75 mph and a central pressure of 982mb. As of 1:00 pm update, Isaias currently has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, minimum central pressure of 975mb, tracking east-northeast at 10 mph.

Isaias should continue to gain strength and has a good chance of becoming a Category 2 hurricane, but as I said a couple of days ago, a Category 3 hurricane isn’t out of the question. Isaias should generally track northeast through Thursday, before he shifts to a northward track toward the Gulf Coast. Wind shear is going to become much stronger the farther north Isaias goes; it is likely Isaias will weaken as he gets closer to landfall.  At this time, landfall is looking to be late Thursday into the early morning hours Friday on the western Florida panhandle or South Alabama Friday evening.

What’s left of will be impacting the Middle Atlantic and Northeast, Sunday into Monday. Southwest Pennsylvania will see rain starting Sunday morning. The clouds and rain shield will advance north and east during the day on Sunday, reaching the Hudson Valley and western New England Sunday night, then move into northern New England Monday morning.

Rainfall will be locally moderate to heavy at times, across the Middle Atlantic into southern New York State and southern New England.  These areas look to see a general ¼ to 1.5 inches of rain, with very localized amounts of up to 2 inches. The farther north and east you go the less rainfall you will see. 

Image curtesy of Tomer Burg/Polarwx.com

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

 

Isaias is forecast to bring up to 7 feet of dangerous and life-threatening storm surge. With 15-20 foot waves on top of that.

 

 

General rainfall of 5-8 inches is likely. But 10 inches or more locally is very possible. All of this could lead to flash flooding across the central Gulf Coast.

 

 

 As often the case with landfalling hurricanes, there is a threat for tornadoes in outer rainbands as the center approaches land Friday, then possibly again Saturday in parts of the Southeast.

Several days ago, I mentioned that we would have to watch the eastern Pacific, to see if it could interact with what is going on over North America. We we’re going to see Rachel impact western US and merge into the Snowstorm that will be impacting the southwest Canada into the Rockies.  Then we have Tropical Storm Simon that is also going to bring rain into the Southwest US.

 

Will we see the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026?

Tropical Atlantic  

Last evening, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) raised Invest 92L to Tropical Depression Nine; Then this morning TD #9 became Tropical Storm Isaias.

Isaias has max sustained winds of 40 mph, a central pressure of 1004mb, tracking east northeast at 8 mph. Isaias is likely to intensify in the central Gulf of Mexico to become the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season. 

The models show likely soon to be hurricane Isaias becoming a Category 2, with a chance of making it to a Category 3, once over the central Gulf. After that as she heads for the Central /Northeast Gulf Coast that higher windshear should weaken this before a landfall between New Orleans LA and Panama City FL Late Friday or overnight Friday. Isaias will weaken over land. Here’s a look at the hurricane spaghetti models

 

Region Weather  

 

After a very frosty start, we have a southwest flow (10-15 mph), bring in warmer temps.

We still have high pressure impacting the region. Today southern parts of the region will be beautiful, with plenty of Sun and dry conditions. Northern parts of the region will see more in the way of clouds, with a very slight chance for a shower.  Temperatures will be warmer than they were yesterday. Tonight, into tomorrow a Canadian disturbance with a weak cold front will move across New York State and northern into Central New England, bringing a better chance for rain showers later tonight into Thursday across those areas. The cold front will continue to push through the rest of the region on Thursday, but with little to no rain. Behind the front winds will shift to the northwest, allowing temperatures to drop for Friday into Saturday.   Saturday is looking to be tranquil and mostly dry. Then remnant moisture from Isaias will move in for Sunday into Monday, as high pressure departs.   The rain will spread across the region Southwest to Northeast. This won’t linger and will move through very quickly.

Tuesday a strong cold front will move through, bringing widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Behind this front the coldest air so far this season will invade the region for our Wednesday.