Wet and turning cooler!

 Wednesday is going to be another wet day and we’re looking to be a cooler starting today.

Surface Chart and Current Radar

The cold front is ever so slowly moving across the region. Looking at the surface chart, it has become semi stationary and is setting over northern New England and extending back over New York State into Pennsylvania.  The western parts of the region are seeing scattered to isolated rain showers, while the eastern half of the region is dealing with waves of widespread showers.  

 

The front has brought cooler conditions into the region; here is a look at the 24-hour temperature change from Penn-States E-wall

 Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather

With all the rain over the last 24 hours, there are currently no flooding watches or warning alerts posted yet, but there are areas of high water in some poor drainage area flooding and ponding on roadways. The amount of rain does have streams and creeks running high as well.

 The front is going to slowly continue to drop south and east and end up sitting just to our east for tomorrow. This will mean this cooler and unsettled weather is going to hang around for a few days. Thursday much of the region should be much drier, with only a chance for a few isolated showers, but those closer to the frontal boundary in the Middle Atlantic and southeast New England and across eastern Maine will see scattered showers. Friday we will see a weak trough move through, keeping the threat for a few rain showers in the forecast, bunt many of us should stay mostly dry.  For Thursday and Friday our temperature is going to remain cool.

 

Friday night and Saturday, an area of low pressure currently bringing snow to parts of Colorado will be approaching and moving through. Ahead of this it will get a little breezy with a more in the way of widespread rain showers moving in. While Saturday won’t be a wash out there is going to be widespread rain showers with the temperatures remaining cool. Those with the best chance of see more of the rain will be across Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic. Mother’s Day should be drier as this moves to the east. But we will still be dealing with a trough, so there will still be a chance for a few scattered rain showers. This will be especially true over western and northern New York State. Then on Monday another area of low pressure will approach bring more unsettled weather. Rain will likely become widespread and could be heavy at times. There could be a few rumbles of thunder, but I don’t expect any severe weather. Tuesday will see this system clear to the east, leaving drier conditions but with still a chance for isolated rain showers. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, another area of low pressure will approach and move through.

As you can see the pattern is going to stay active and unsettled, this is common for a developing El Nino. But the pattern looks to remain cool, this isn’t so common for an El Nino. 

Feels like Summer for today!

 Surface Chart and Radar

The High pressure is starting to exit ahead of the slow-moving cold front; this is going to lead to increased cloudiness and then rain showers and thunderstorms. Today is going to be unseasonally warm. Ahead of the front will be increasing 15-30 mph and becoming gusty with gust of 35-45 mph possible.

Looking at the radar, we can see some spotty showers moving into western parts of our region as well as a few over New York State and northern New England. But the air is dry, so some of this isn’t reaching the ground. For Northwest Pennsylvania and parts of New York State and northern New England; the rain will be become more widespread, and the intensity will increase by during the Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night into Wednesday with localized heavier downpours quite possible. This afternoon and evening will likely see scattered thunderstorms develop. Some of these could be on the strong side. The heavier rain will make it to Southwest Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh late tonight into Wednesday.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

The SPC has a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The main risk will be strong damaging winds, with gust of 60+ mph. But there is also a danger for some hail, heavy downpours, and possibility a few tornadoes, but the tornado risk is very small.  

 The following images are curtesy of Pivotal Weather

The rain and a few thunderstorms will move into eastern New York State late Afternoon and especially this evening

As for Wednesday, it’s going to stay windy with gusts 30-40mph., as the cold front slowly advances south and east rain and embedded thunderstorms will develop across eastern Pennsylvania and especially Southeast Pennsylvania and the Northern Middle Atlantic This will continue during the afternoon before tapering off to more in the way of scattered showers by Wednesday night. The rain looks to make it into Southeastern New England during Wednesday afternoon and Night. As low pressure develops along that front Thursday, we could see some light rain or rain showers redevelop on Thursday, especially Southeast Pennsylvania and points east.  The rest of the region will remain unsettled for Thursday. 

The weather is going to remain unsettled for Friday and through the Mother’s Day Weekend, as we see several weak shortwaves move through. But it won’t be a washout; I expect the showers to be more isolated than not. Rain chances will increase for Sunday night and Monday as a stronger cold front works through. Then High pressure will move in for Tuesday, producing more in the way of tranquil weather.  

I really don’t know how these daily weather posts are being received. Not too many of y’all are reading them.    

We’re not done with frosts and freezes just yet!

The first weekend of May, was quite cool. But we will see a warmup for Today and even more so for tomorrow. But it won’t last as the chill will return later this week behind a cold front.

The Surface Chart and Radar.

The Surface chart shows high pressure to the east is still influencing our weather, with the warm front having lifted through the region. This is allowing for a southwest flow that is bringing in much milder temperatures. But we can also see low pressure north of the Great Lakes with that cold front that will approach us on Tuesday. The rain showers with the warm front have pushed through New York State and are now over northern New England.

Today will see winds become gusty

For Tuesday the morning into the afternoon should be dry, but then as the slow-moving cold front begins to move across western parts of our region, isolated showers will move in ahead of the front. These showers will become more widespread Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. With enough sunshine earlier in the day, we will likely see some afternoon and evening thunderstorms, as the cold front continues to ever so slowly push east into the warm airmass. A few of these thunderstorms could be on the strong side.  Ahead of the cold front winds are going to be gusty with gusts from the southwest 30 to 35 mph,

 Satellite 

Regional satellite shows a lot of sun and tranquil conditions moving in from the west, this will be with us into tomorrow. But the I/R shows the conditions that will be with us later tomorrow and the rest of the week.

Behind the cold front the region is going to see another significant cool down for the several days.  

Wednesday and beyond

 

On Wednesday this cold front is going to slowly push through, along with these waves of showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday is also going to start to cool back off, but it will still be relatively warm along with increasing cloudiness and rain showers.  

General rainfall of 1-2″ is likely, with amounts upwards of around 2.5" -3” for some will be possible with the passage of the front.

This slow-moving frontal boundary will have a few waves of energy moving along it for Wednesday and Thursday. Keeping things unsettled. No day will be a wash out...but expect there to be period of showers. Then On Thursday another cold front will roll through bringing the risk for some rain showers and perhaps gusty thunderstorms This is going to reenforce the cooler air already in place through Mother's Day weekend. Friday we will be under the influence of a trough that will be digging back in. keeping things unsettled During this time high elevational mix/snow showers will be possible over New York State and northern into central New England. The trough will be hanging around for Saturday into Sunday along with the chance for a few rain showers. Later this week and through the weekend, the cooler areas around the northern Great Lakes, northern and central New York State and interior New England will have to be leery of the chance for frost and freezes.

This same general pattern looks to be with us again next week. With a brief warmup beginning the week followed by another cooldown for the second half of next week.

 I hope all y’all have read my long-range ideas I posted Friday and Sunday.

More on Spring and Summer

This post will tie into with Friday’s post.

How April worked out?

Before we look at May and beyond. Let’s take a look at how April’s temperature and precipitation ended up

These are showing the individual stations climate ranking for the last 134 years  

 April Temperature rank

Images curtesy of Iowa Environment Mesonet (IEM) 

In spite of April having more cool days than warm one. Those super warm days during the month skewed the months temperature, to average above average as far as general temperature on average across a large part of our region.

April Precipitation rank

Images curtesy of Iowa Environment Mesonet (IEM) 

We can clearly see the predominate storm track that led to the severe weather in the Plains and Great Lakes. This resulted in a lot of moisture be pulled out of the Gulf and stream it northward into the Upper Midwest and the areas around the Great Lakes.  

We can also see the influence of the Bermuda High, that has resulted in a lot of dry conditions in the Southwest U.S. that has extended into the Northern Middle Atlantic and Southern New England.       

What about May?

I’ve been talking about how this year’s El Nino and the other teleconnections could allow for the Northeast to see a generally cooler than average Spring.

April did in fact see more cooler than average days during April. But the Amount of heat we saw on the days that were milder did end up making the month warmer than average overall.

 The best years for May analogues are 2008, 2020 and 2021

 This Summer (June through August)

 El Nino is going to strengthen, and possibility evolve into a rare extremely strong (super) El Nino later in the Summer and then likely be with us through at least the start of 2027.

During this upcoming Summer. I think there is going to be a divide between the northern part of the region and the southern part of the region.

I used to do maps that showed my thoughts. But they seemed to cause problems with some not knowing where they generally were on the map. But I will try it again, below shows the temperature outlooks each month from June through August.

June

The entire region could end up a bit chilly overall based by typical June temperatures

 

 

July

For July those warmer temperatures to the West and South will try and push into our region. I think the end result will see A north-south split in temperatures similar to what I’m thinking for May.

 

August

I still think the overall pattern we’ve been seeing is still going to be with us during August. So the August temperature profile could look similar to what we’re going to see in July.

 

  I have to ask you to remember, that this doesn’t mean there won’t be very warm days. I just saying that similar patterns during the summer have previously limited the risk of persistent Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic summer heat. So, we should end up with fewer than average heat waves.

 

Severe weather

As far as severe weather during June and July with the temperature contrast that looks to be present, we could see quite a bit of severe weather, bringing the chance for around average to above-average number of tornadoes. This will be especially true for New York State, Pennsylvania, into the Middle Atlantic.

 That’s a very quick look at my thoughts. I will likely release a bit more detail on the Summer as we get closer.

Have a great rest of your Sunday.

Welcome to May Day but the chill is still here!

 

I’ve been getting quite a few inquiries on when we are going to warm up. So, here’s a post that will try to answer that.

The surface chart and radar

The calendar says it’s May; but the temperatures are saying that isn’t true. In spite of us moving deeper into Spring, the pattern is going to go in the opposite direction.  While the polar vortex is over, it’s aftereffects are not.

 Why is it so cold?

We have a strong cold front tracking eastward across the United States, the front is causing a big drop in temperatures from the Plains to the East.  The system is bringing a sharp break from the recent conditions, where temperatures were very mild, allowing the trees to start budding.

 

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

The change is being driven by a deep dip in the jet stream. This is allowing much cooler air to dive south out of Canada. As the bend in the jet stream is funneling that polar air mass into the eastern 2/3 of the Continental US (CONUS) This is going to continue as we move farther into May.

That storm system is doing more than just pushing the cold front through; the slow-moving system that is riding along the jet stream is reenforcing the colder air already in place, helping reinforce the cooler pattern and making it hard to dislodge. The change is being driven by a deep dip in the jet stream, which is allowing a surge of cooler air to move south out of Canada.

When will temperatures warm back up?

Here is a look at the Long-range outlook from NOAA. This is covering from early to mid-May.

 

We can see it's continuing to signal below-average temperatures across the central and eastern U.S. The Jet is going to stay active with dips in the Jet. Resulting in reenforcing shots of colder air. Remember that doesn’t necessarily mean it we will see cold or freezing air all the time, but rather some warmth between these cold shots.

 

Overall, moving forward we look to see a gradual, uneven warm-up where overall we’re colder than average, but should see seasonable or higher-than-average average temperatures at times. rather than sustained warmer temperature through at least mid-May. The second half of May doesn’t look to be as cold as the first half across our region as well as the East in general, but an abrupt swing into summerlike warmth is looking very unlikely. I’ve been talking about this pattern for the last few months. In the Spring Outlook a said overall this spring could say overall cool.

The last day of April

 

The surface chart and radar

 

We can see the cold front moving across the region, along with a series of troughs, causing variable clouds and scattered rain showers. The air is rather cool, as shown by the NAM 3K temperature plot, curtesy of Tropical Tidbits.  

From today through Saturday, as an upper level low up over the Great Lakes allows these series of troughs to continue to move across the region; keeping us a bit cool and unsettled with isolated to scattered rain showers. Then late Saturday into Sunday two areas of low pressure, currently near the Southwest U.S and the other over the northern Plains near the Canadian Border, will work through and redevelop off the Middle Atlantic Coast.  Right now, this looks to stay south and east enough that it will only graze southern New England and brush the Mid-Atlantic this will bring some rain later Saturday into Saturday night for these areas, the area’s most likely to be impacted look to be along and southeast of the Interstate 95 corridor. Interior parts of the region should stay relatively dry.

 

Monday high pressure will move in keeping the threat of scattered showers in the forecast, especially for northern parts of the region, but temperatures will become milder. Then on Tuesday another cold front will approach continuing to keep things unsettled along with variable cloud cover. For Tuesday night and Wednesday the cold front will stall and become stationary; this will keep the threat for scattered showers along and south and east of the boundary.  Thursday a stronger area of low pressure will approach, resulting in widespread rain showers that could be heavy it times. There could also be scattered thunderstorms. It is possible some of these storms could be strong to severe.

The Drought Monitor

The U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday, April 30 showed drought and/or abnormally dry conditions expand in southern and coastal parts of the Northeast. This was due to factors such as limited precipitation, record to near-record low streamflow, and reduced groundwater levels and soil moisture. Agricultural impacts have also been noted in West Virginia. However, conditions improved in northern and eastern Maine, where groundwater levels continue to recover.

This week. 

Last week.

Have a great day!

Cool and unsettled

 

The surface chart and radar

 

We have high pressure exiting to the east, while a cold front is approaching out of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with an area Low pressure developing along the front.

Today

Clouds will continue to increase head of the front.  It will take a little while for the dry air ahead of the front to moisten up. But by Mid Afternoon the rain will becoming much steadier over central parts of the region. Out ahead of the front temperatures will be seasonably mild. The Widespread rain and thunderstorms will continue to advance east into the eastern parts of the region late afternoon into tonight. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to perhaps severe.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Marginal Risk for severe weather over Southwest Pennsylvania (including Pittsburgh), most of Maryland and Delaware.

 

Rain will be heavy at times, with a general, with 0.5" to 1.0" with high amounts possible of rain by tomorrow morning. These heavier downpours could lead to some localized poor-drainage flooding on the roadways.

Temperatures will become much cooler behind the front.

 Tomorrow into the Weekend.

 The rest of this week is going to stay chilly, breezy, and unsettled as this area of low pressure lingers overhead. Both Thursday and Friday will have scattered to isolated showers; as the low pressure slowly drifts east, with rain lessening west to east. This will be especially true for Thursday.  But later Friday through the weekend a trough with an upper-level low will approach and move in overhead, this will keep the weekend chilly and unsettled. With the chilly temperatures, northern parts of the region will likely experience some mixed precipitation, with the higher elevations seeing snow showers.  These weekend showers will be widely scattered, so many might not see them, but they could popup anywhere and anytime. On Sunday we’re going to see high pressure build in from Canada along with a stronger area of low pressure developing off the Middle Atlantic Coast. This area of low pressure will be drifting away during Monday, with rain showers over the northeastern Middle Atlantic, with scattered rain showers over New England, the rest of the region will be dealing with scattered rain showers. On Tuesday, low pressure and a cold front will be approaching and moving though. Bringing scattered rain showers to the region, rain could be rather heavy at times. Then for Wednesday high pressure will briefly move in, followed by another cold front and low pressure for Wednesday night into Thursday.   

 I hope y’all have had time to read part 2 of my hurricane outlook.

Have a great rest of your day.

Warm Start then a cool and damp finish.

 After a nice start, Northeast to end up rainy, chilly later this week

For the last few weeks, I’ve been warning all y’all about the roller coaster weather pattern, with wild temperature swings, that was going to encompass the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic. This overall pattern looks to last for the rest of April into the first or second week of May. 

Surface Chart and Radar

 

On the surface chart and radar, we can see rain showers and some thunderstorms that moved out of the Ohio Valley and into western parts of our region, ahead of a cold front. Ahead of the cold front winds will become quite gusty with gust of around 30 mph possible. The cold front is going to weaken as it moves across western Pennsylvania and western New York State. There is a chance for a few thunderstorms across western parts of our region. As the rain approaches Central Pennsylvania and Central New York State the rain will lessen and dry up as it continues to move eastward.  Across the central parts of the region, we could see a sprinkles and showers for eastern half of northern New York State, the Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks, Catskills and across Central Pennsylvania during the afternoon into late afternoon. As it continues to push east, it could produce a couple of spotty rain showers later Tuesday afternoon or early Tuesday evening, but most should remain dry.

 Wednesday

Another system close on the heels of the first one, will move through. This will accompany the general prolonged rainy and chilly pattern for midweek into the coming weekend. For Wednesday we will see more in the way of widespread and steadier rain.  We’re going to see low pressure develop along the front to our south and pass north and east through the region. Rain with downpours will be working into western parts of the region mid-morning into the early afternoon.  The rain will likely be moving into eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York State late afternoon into the early evening. Then it will move into New England Wednesday night. General rainfall amounts of 3/4" to 1" are likely but some of y’all could see a bit less, while others see a bit more. There will be a chance for thunderstorms over parts of the region. Some of these could be strong too severe across southern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware.

The wet weather is needed as parts of the region are dealing with some ongoing drought

Behind our Wednesday system we will see rain, cooler and breezier conditions settle in for the end of the work. As low pressure in Canada supports deep troughing across our region. Right now, for the second half of Thursday it looks to be much drier, but a bit unsettled, with a few spotty shower showers possible, For Friday, it will be chilly and will remain unsettled with the chance of scattered showers. The weekend is looking quite cool for this time of year. The weekend is going to continue to be unsettled.  Thursday and through the weekend, mixing could be possible, with a chance for snow showers especially in the higher elevations above 2000’.

 I encourage y’all to read part 2 of my hurricane outlook.

Here is the link

Have a great rest of your day.