Tranquil weather for getting out to vote!

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

Today

We have that high pressure that is starting to push east. We also have an area of low pressure to our north in Canada. This will bring heavier cloudiness across New York State and New England, with scattered clouds across Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. The disturbance will bring isolated to scattered steadier rain across northern New York State into northern New England, today into this evening. The farther north you are the better your chance of seeing any of this rain. Temperatures are slightly above average across the region.  That frontal boundary over Maine is going to push back north as a warm front tonight, taking any remaining rain showers with it.

The tranquil conditions across the Middle Atlantic and southern Pennsylvania extend into the Ohio Valley. We do see the system over the upper Midwest, the leading warm front will be approaching us tonight, and move across the region tomorrow.

For the rest of the week

The warm front will be lifting through. Allowing record to near record warmth, along with a lot of sunshine. With the front rain will return and move west to east starting in the late afternoon or evening for western parts of our region. The rain will continue to advance west to east into central New York State and central Pennsylvania; the rain will continue to push east into Thursday morning for New England and the Middle Atlantic.  Rain will be tapering off west to east later in the day into Wednesday night.

Then on Thursday the trailing cold front will move through bringing gusty winds and more rain. It looks like this cold front will stall over New England back down through the Middle Atlantic, So the eastern half of our region will see rain continue throughout Friday into Saturday morning. We going to see an area of low pressure develop along the frontal boundary The closer to the coast you are the more rain you will see. On Sunday clearing will be developing across southern New England, southern New York State, Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic. But a disturbance in Canada, will bring rain across northern New York State and northern New England and the chance for higher elevation snow showers, this will be especially true of the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites.

Rain amounts for the 2^nd half of this week look to be generally 0.50 to 1.0 inches with localized amount of 2 to perhaps 3 inches possible. Many parts of the region have gone weeks without measurable rain, so this rain is much needed.  There is the possibility for low area and street flooding across parts of the Middle Atlantic into New England.

Monday will see another frontal boundary move through, with low pressure developing along it off the coast.  This coastal low looks to stay far enough off shore to keep most of the region fairly dry, but on Tuesday there could be rain from it impacting eastern New England.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is nearing the finish line. We will have to see if this coastal low pressure can acquire some tropical characteristics.  

   

November starts out mild and quiet.

 

I’ve been talking about the current El Nino pattern for months. I’ve repeatedly talked about how Typical El Nino weather patterns include wetter and stormier winters across the southern United States, warmer and drier conditions in the northern United States. In the long range Canadian CanSIPS model, this pattern shows up very well.

 

November

 

 

December

 

January

 

 

February

 

 

March

The December – February average

As the pattern continues to evolve, the El Nino’s warm water is going to provide  a stark contrast to the cooler air that will drop south as the polar jet shifts the stormy pattern south. As a result of this temperature contrast, the southern Jet is going to become super charged. The parade of storms that have been impacting Alaska, will shift south allowing Pacific disturbance to move into California and work their way across the southern CONUS. At times we’re going to see a split in the polar jet, that will allow some storms to move into the Pacific Northwest. The Southern US and Southeast US will see a lot of winter storms this winter, I think more than a few of these will move up the Eastern Seaboard, some of these will track out to sea, but some will likely impact the Northern Middle Atlantic and Northeast. But their impacts will depend on track and cold air availability. So, while the winter will be milder than average there will be periods of cold and maybe arctic airmasses, so this will keep the region active with a chance for more than a few snowstorms, especially along the coastal plain.    

I’ve been trying to reenforce what I discussed in the Winter Outlook; by showing how the pattern is evolving.  Today’s pattern discussion is trying to give you a visual of what I’ve been harping about for what seems like forever. I’m trying to build confidence among all y’all, that I do know a thing or two about a thing or two!

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

The system over the Southwest is going to cross the country, bringing severe weather for some, heavy rain and strong winds for the southern and central Plains. Then it will move into the Midwest and Middle Atlantic, before tracking into the Northeast with gusty winds and periods of heavy rain.

Today

High pressure overhead is starting to slowly push east.  Today is going to be very mild with above average temperatures with light winds. We do have a few isolated showers across parts of the region; this will be especially true across northern Maine. But we can see the system out west that is going to be heading our way for the second half of the week.

For the rest of the week

Tomorrow and Wednesday will stay very mild with near record to record warmth and mostly dry across the region. But Tuesday a disturbance pushing across Canada, could cause a few light and fairly steady showers over New York State and Northern New England. But the rest of the region will stay dry.  For Wednesday there could be a few lingering showers across Maine, but the rest of the region should be dry during the day.

Then on Wednesday night western parts of the region could see some rain approaching. As the frontal system approaches on a warm front will move across the region for Thursday. The front will bring the chance for rain showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. Thursday night into Friday the cold front will be slowly approaching with rain heavy at times moving west to east across the region, parts of the region need rain badly, so this rain is very much wanted.  The cold front will be pushing east on Saturday, with lingering rain showers across eastern long Island and eastern New England possible.  Behind the cold front high pressure will move in providing seasonal temperatures.  As I said yesterday, we will have a Coastal storm/Nor’easter that will bring rain and wind to the region later Sunday through at least Tuesday. The track will decide who sees what. 

 

A look at the coming week, and a quick look at the El Nino pattern.

October and Halloween are in the rearview mirror, with the days getting shorter and nights getting crisp.  Meteorological Winter is here, and everyone is wondering what’s in store for us.

I’ve been posting on this winter a lot leading to this point; I’ve even done a couple of super detailed winter outlooks.

This year we’re in a very strong El Nino event: Pacific Ocean temperatures are at record highs; all this is going to make for an interesting winter from a meteorological standpoint. The outlooks pointed out that we’re going to see a milder than average winter in the Northeast, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have snow. In my opinion the Northeast is the most unpredictable and difficult area of the country to forecast. So, because of the warmth and active storm track the Northeast is going have higher amounts of precipitation. But, while we’re going to see more rain and mixed events, we’re also going to see snow at times, while interior parts of the region will likely see below average seasonal snow amounts, a large part of the northern Middle Atlantic could see above average seasonal snow amounts.

It’s the 1^st of November, but the El Nino storm pattern is already in high swing. Because of the Pacific setup, a huge moisture plume (atmospheric river) is bringing increased precipitation into the Southwest. This will result in excessive runoff, flash flooding and mudslides for the desert Southwest. In the coming weeks the Subtropical Jet is going to become active and supercharged as these Pacific disturbances move along it. This is also going to result in a severe weather outbreak in the Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the same time, we’re watching the   evolving shift in the polar vortex. This is going to be a major disruption in the PV. Normally this would bring cold air southward, but this time the problem, is that the air in northern Canada is not all that cold. This has to do with that Negative PDO and western QBO, I've been talking about so much.  

As the moisture plume works east with the frontal system. It is going to be pulling a lot of moisture up the East Coast. All of this is going to result in another early season nor’easter that will develop off the East Coast. This is going to bring heavy rain to parts of the Middle Atlantic Region and into New England for the weekend into the first part of next week. These nor’easters are a result of the El Nino pattern I’ve been talking about for quite some time. As we move farther into the winter season, we’re going to see more of these coastal disturbances develop. Winter 2026-2027 is going to end up seeing a lot of nor’easters, what we see out of them will depend on the temperature profile at the time. This nor’easter is going to be pulling down enough colder air, that at least some accumulating snow is going to fall across the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites during the first part of next week.

While it won’t be arctic air, we’re going to see slightly below -average to below average temperatures across the Northeast for the first the coming weekend into the 2^nd week of November. But the chilly temperatures won’t last. Much of the rest of the first half of the month is still expected to be above-average seeing as we’re under El Nino’s influence. 

This is reflected in the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10-day and 8–14-day outlooks, which have the chances of above-normal temperatures from the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast northwestward to the Great Lakes at 60%-70%.  

Today will be slightly warmer that Saturday with clear skies. This week we’re going to be watching a cold front advance across the CONUS, so the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes could turn much colder starting around Wednesday into Thursday. For our region Monday and Tuesday look to be partly sunny and mostly dry; but election day could see a few showers across northern New York State and Northern New England during Tuesday, but they look to be fairly light and scattered in nature. We’re going to have a leading warm front and that trailing cold front bringing the next real chance for rain Wednesday through Friday. Wednesday will end up being the warmest day of the week.  From Thursday into next week, were going to see widespread rain develop, as I said above a nor'easter moving up the coast will enhance rain amounts and even lead to snow for some of y’all.  

It’s cooler, but enjoy Halloween!

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

Today

We have a couple of weak cold fronts dropping through the region, with a few isolated showers over New York State and northern New England. But, high pressure is building back into the region

Satellite shows quite a bit of cloudiness over New York State and northern New England, with everyone else seeing a mix of sun and clouds, with skies becoming mostly sunny the farther south you are.  Winds are out of the west/northwest bringing in much cooler temperatures than we enjoyed yesterday, winds are breezy with gust of 15-30 mph.

For the rest of the week

 

That high pressure will be sticking with us over the Halloween weekend, allowing for cooler seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. Halloween Saturday will feature plenty of sunshine, with the cool temperatures those doing trick or treating might have to ware something warmer under their costume, but the lack of rain will make it nicer than many past Halloweens.  Temperatures are going to fall quickly on Saturday night with clear skies so if you’re doing any late parties make sure to have a jacket.  Don't forget to reset your clocks on Halloween night, as we fall back an hour, with the changeover to standard time. The change will mean sunset will be before 5 pm on Sunday.  

Sunday will still be seasonally chilly but it will end up slightly warmer than Saturday with clear skies.

Monday, Tuesday into Wednesday look to stay mostly dry, as high pressure will remain overhead. But a weak disturbance will be moving across Canada on Election Tuesday, so I can’t rule out a few rain showers, especially across New York State and northern into central New England. For the first half of next week temperatures will be recovering and turning milder.  Winds will be light and variable so all in all it won’t be bad at all. Wednesday will see that high pressure starts to push east as a low-pressure system and a trough approach. Thursday will be our next chance for rain showers as a warm front approaches and moves through.   As the area of low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes into Canada, a cold front will move through for Friday into Saturday, providing an even better chance for rain showers, we will cool down once again behind the front.

 

For the last week, I’ve been trying to show how the pattern is adjusting to the rapidly strengthening El Nino.

I’ve been talking about the current developing major stratospheric disruption for several weeks now. But because of that westerly QBO there isn’t a lot of cold air in Alaska and Northwest Canada. So, while this is an historically early Polar Vortex split, the QBO will help mute its impact.  There is a chance we could see another PV event later in December. The question is how much will the QBO effect that one.  I do expect the region to cool off somewhat for the end of November into December, how cold it will be is unclear, but I do expect to see some snow falling across the Northeast, especially in those higher elevations of New York State and northern New England. If this El Nino generally behaves like past strong El Nino’s the pattern will become colder and snowier for January and February. During this time nor’easters will become an issue.  We could end up seeing quite a few Miller A and Miller D type nor’easters with a decent chance for a few Miller B’s thrown in as well. We’re not going to get away from seeing some Alberta Clippers during the winter. While this Super El Nino will be a dominate feature, providing overall above average temperature profiles, there is going to be enough cold air episodes to ensure accumulating snow, as I said in the Outlook, the major cities in the I-95 will likely end up with above average snowfall for the season.  It’s going to be an interesting and memorable winter.  

Have a great and safe Halloween Weekend!

It's going to be a great Halloween!

 

Here’s a look at the current development of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. 

This is going to disrupt the PV. We have a lot of moisture that is going to be injected into the Southwest and Plains over the next few days, as a disturbance brings pacific moisture into the southwest at the same time a cutoff low will be working south from the Pacific Northwest down into California.  

 

 

Right now, most of the CONUS is very warm, the warm temperatures stretch from Texas right up through Maine. We will have a cold front that will drop through the region, but temperatures won’t crash behind it, and we’re going to stay fairly mild for late October standards right through the Halloween weekend. 

 Yesterday I talked about the PV bulging ahead of a likely split, with a piece of that split ending up over Southeast Canada. We can see all of that in these images.

 I’ve circled the two areas that will split in white.

 

When we get out to around Nov 5^th to 6^th, there is a very decent PV disruption. The problem is going to be in spite the historic nature of this SSW, there really isn’t a lot of cold air to be pulled down into the CONUS.

Here’s a look at the Euro thoughts on the temperature pattern over the CONUS from today into next Friday. 

So, in spite of the huge PV displacement, there really isn’t any arctic cold locked up in Northwest Canada and Alaska that can be pulled south. 

As far as rain, after whatever rain we see tonight into Friday morning, the weekend through Wednesday is looking to stay generally dry, then more clouds will build in with some rain showers returning for Thursday and Friday.

I still think the end of November into December is going to cold and stormy.