The heat is gone and one more day of the excessive rain.

 Today is much more comfortable as we return to seasonal and eventually below average temperatures.  

 

Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

We’re going to have a frontal boundary associated with a slow-moving trough. There are going to be pieces of energy moving along the boundary, that will be the focus of rain and thunderstorms, as they push into that soupy airmass, some of these will be strong to severe.   Those with the greatest chance of seeing severe storms will be across Southern Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. Any storms that form, will be capable of moderate to heavy downpours. For this reason, there is a Flood Watch across part of southern Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic up across the Southern Hudson Valley into southern New England.  The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather across part of Pennsylvania into Maryland and Delaware.

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather. 

The primary low to the west is in the process of transferring energy to the coast. This will cause low pressure will form along the boundary and move north and east as all of this pulls out.  As this low forms it will enhance rainfall across Southern New England.  Conditions will be at their worst across southern New England this evening and overnight.  

Images curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Lingering rain across the northern Middle Atlantic tomorrow morning, then this area will dry out. But rain will continue across southern New England.  Rain will continue across southern New England tomorrow morning and afternoon, rain though lessened it could still be locally heavy at times. The rain tapers off tomorrow night across southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Wednesday will feature a chance for isolated showers. On Thursday, a warm front is going to start to lift into the region.  This warm front will continue to advance north and east across the region, bringing with it, rain showers and some thunderstorms.  Then Thursday night and Friday the trailing cold front will come through. This will keep it very unsettled, with widespread rain showers and some thunderstorms.  The Saturday will feature cooler weather, with a chance for isolated rain showers.  Then for Sunday and Monday conditions look to be more or less dry, but a bit cool.

 

 Have a great day. 

  

The heat dome has broken down, now what?

 

The extreme heat has broken for most of us.

This will be a short post that goes into the general weather pattern for this week.

 

We’re going to see strong ridge of high-pressure setup up over the Southwest CONUS. This is going to force a strong ridge of high pressure over the Western into Central CONUS, bringing very warm temperatures into that region. This high-pressure ridge will swell into the Plains by Midmonth. For the Eastern part of the country including our region, we’re going to see temperatures that are much cooler than they were last week. This shift west of the heat is going to last through at least mid-month.  So, this will set up a different pattern. The large part of this week will feature generally seasonal temperatures with lower humidity. Then as we get toward the weekend into the first part of next week, we could see cooler than average temperatures set back up over the region.

As the ridge shifts west most of the severe weather will eventually follow it. But first a part of our region is going to have to deal with a lot of rain, as all that atmospheric moisture gets wrung out of the air.   Today into Tuesday rain will be increasing over Pennsylvania and the MidAtlantic Region.

We can see the frontal boundary on the surface chart. This has basically stalled from New England down into to Virginia We’re going to see low pressure develop along the boundary tonight and tomorrow. This will bring the risk for widespread rain across Southern New York State (mainly south of I-90), Pennsylvania, and the MidAtlantic. north of there the rain shouldn’t be as widespread.

The severe risk continues to slip south. For today, the SPC has a slight Risk of severe weather is in place with any storm bringing the chance for gusty winds and some heavy rain. Any storm has the potential for heavy rain, there is a risk for localized flash flooding, especially in already saturated spots. The best timing for storms will be this afternoon and evening. 

The Severe risk is even farther south tomorrow as the front sets just to our south. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather across southern Maryland (south of DC)

By Tuesday all the heat and high humidity will be out of the region. The severe risk should be over, but there is a chance for a rogue strong storm, but the risk should be south of the region. With the change in the pattern, as we get into the coming weekend, the rainfall chances should increase over Pennsylvania and the MidAtlantic Region. At the same time New York State and New England should stay generally drier.  

Over the next few days Eastern Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, lower Hudson Valley including New York City, Long Island and Southern New England are at a greater risk for flooding. These areas could see 2 to near 5 inches of rain.

Here is a look at the excessive rainfall outlooks for the next 3 days.

That’s it, have a great Sunday!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448

 SEL8

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 448
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   325 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northern Delaware
     Northeast Maryland
     New Jersey
     Southern New York
     Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
     1100 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over southern New York and
   northern Pennsylvania in a hot/humid air mass.  These storms will
   track southeastward through the afternoon and early evening, posing
   a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
   statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of
   Binghamton NY to 40 miles west southwest of Wilmington DE. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...WW 446...WW 447...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   29030.

   ...Hart

 

It gets worse before it gets better!

 Well we made it to friday.

The end is in sight, as the dome starts to ever so slowly begin to break down.

 

Looking at the temperature and dew point charts, we can see the high heat and humidity are still over the region, this means the Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings are still in place effect, but northern New England is seeing a little relief. The Advisories and warnings look to be in place across northern New York State into this evening.  But for the areas south the Extreme Heat Warning will continue until Saturday.

 

Looking at the surface chart, we can see that weak cold front approaching out of Canada. This is going to be dropping south through the region this 4^th of July weekend.  

Today will also feature a chance for scattered showers and storms, and some could be strong to severe, The SPC has the region under a slight Risk of severe weather today, with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. The best chance for storms will be midafternoon through this evening across New York State into New England, so most of the fire work displays should be ok. But the timing of all this could place some of the firework displays across parts of Pennsylvania as the chance for some storms will extend into tonight and the overnight.

Tomorrow that cold front will continue to slow drop into the region. Kicking off showers and storms, the SPC has the Southern Tier of New York State into southern New England under a Marginal Risk of severe weather, with a Slight Risk area across most of Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic, with damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours being the biggest risk in any storms that turn severe. Timing for any storms would be similar to today.

The severe risk is even farther south on Sunday, with a Marginal Risk over much of Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey into Long Island. The Slight Risk is over much of southern Pennsylvania, Southern New Jersey as well as Maryland and Delaware.  

 As the heat dome continues to retrograde back to the west, we will see this gradual reduction in the hot conditions across the region. As the high-pressure ridge setup across the west.  That cold front will continue to drop south Sunday night and Monday, so it will be cooler and less humid north of the frontal boundary. But southern Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic will still be dealing with some heat and humidity. Those areas will also see increased risk for showers and storms. Some of this could linger into Tuesday morning before things quiet down. Tuesday and Wednesday should be much cooler than they have been, with temperatures returning to somewhat seasonal.

Have a great Friday.  

 

 

Another Hot Day!

 Monday was a very busy severe weather day.

There were dozens of damage reports.

The National Weather Service office in Binghamton confirmed the tornado in Pittsfield was an EF-1 tornado with an estimated peak wind of   105 mph, track of just over 8 miles, with a maximum path width of 300 yards.

The National Weather Service Buffalo confirms a tornado touched down in Lewis County on Tuesday. They say an EF-1 tornado with wind speeds of 95 to 105 miles per hour caused damage at around 2 p.m. between Castorland and Croghan. The tornado traveled about three-quarters of a mile.

There were also two confirmed Microburst in Lewis County.  One was in the town of Denmark, at around 2 p.m. The other was in Glenfield. Both had winds estimated at 95 to 105 miles per hour.

Yesterday was also a very busy severe day, again with dozens of damage reports across New York State and New England. Several areas were severely damaged. I haven’t heard of any tornadoes or microburst, but that very well could change.

 

 

Today the heat dome is going to expand even more. This should allow those MCSs and Clusters of storms to end up farther north across far northern New York State into northern New England.  This is where the NWS has a Marginal Risk for severe Storms.

 

Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

As has been the case, those under the dome are going to have more of a cap due to the hot air at the surface as well as aloft. This will make it much harder for thunderstorms to form under the dome, so thunderstorms here, will be isolated.

Images curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

With the dangerous heat and humidity, remember your hot weather safety rules and stay safe.

On the Surface Chart we can see that strong high is still parked over the East Coast, with a trough extending from the Carolinas up through eastern New England. This could be the focus for some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Radar is showing nothing going on over the region.  Given the conditions, any thunderstorms that form along the trough will be isolated. We will have to keep an eye on those MCSs in the Midwest. These could rotate in later today into the overnight. Any storms that due pop up around the region, could become severe very quickly, the danger will be strong downburst and straight-line winds, tropical downpours, hail and vivid frequent lightning. The tornado risk is low but not zero.

 

Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

The region is going to be under the Extreme Heat Warmings and Heat Advisories for the next couple of days, then these will slowly drop over the weekend, north to south.

Tomorrow a cold front is going to be approaching from Canada, as the high-pressure ridge continues to slowly push south and west. Temperatures and Humidity will be slightly lower over northern New York State into northern and central New England. This setup will increase the risk for thunderstorms complexes on the edge of the ridge as it drops south.

 

 

A better chance for showers and thunderstorms for Southern New York State, Pennsylvania, and the northern Middle Atlantic through the day on Saturday. Some of these could linger for the 4th of July fireworks displays.  These storms will be scattered and not everyone gets to see them.

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

Sunday is going to have an area of low pressure sitting over the Ohio Valley along with a back door cold front dropping down out of New England. Between these two there will be the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The northern Middle Atlantic into Pennsylvania will see an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms later Sunday into Monday as the cold front move through the region. The slow-moving cold front drops to our south on Tuesday, likely breaking the heat wave, for the entire region. Things will be cooler through the middle and end of next week.

I’ve been trying to post something every day, which is difficult due to taking care of the horses in the high heat, but I do hope you’re getting something out of them.

Have a safe day!

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432

The NWS has decided to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch due to the threat of thunderstorm clusters and complexes. The watch will go into 11:00 pm. The NWS has confirmed a tornado that occurred yesterday in Pittsfield in Otsego County. 

SEL2

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 432
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   455 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northeast New York
     Vermont

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 455 PM
     until 1100 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to southeastward across
   the region through this evening, with damaging winds and some hail
   as the primary hazards.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles south southeast
   of Glens Falls NY to 10 miles east northeast of Massena NY. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...WW 431...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
   31025.

   ...Guyer

Mesoscale Discussion 1423

The SPC is covering what I was talking about!  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible.

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1423
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...Western New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012008Z - 012215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...One or more bands of thunderstorms may impact portions of
   western New York through the evening hours. Trends will be
   monitored, and one or more watches are possible to address the
   potential for severe winds.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS radar mosaics and GOES IR imagery show steady
   growth and intensification of two convective clusters near the
   Ottawa, Canada region. Regional velocity data shows the early stages
   of cold pool development within the southern cluster, which further
   supports the idea of an organizing convective band. Regional VWPs
   are sampling mid-level winds on the order of 25-35 knots on the
   northern fringe of the upper-level ridge. While modest, this may
   provide sufficient deep-layer shear to promote further organization
   and downstream propagation into northern NY where MLCAPE has
   increased to around 3500 J/kg. Consequently, the potential for
   severe winds may increase in the coming hours, though exactly how
   far downstream this threat will extent remains somewhat uncertain
   given the modest deep-layer shear and poor assimilation of recent
   obs/trends by latest high-res guidance.

   Further west, the southern flank of an ongoing MCS has shown signs
   of intensification over the past 30-45 minutes per lightning counts
   and GOES IR imagery. Deep-layer wind shear generally decreases with
   southward extent towards the upper ridge, but latest MLCAPE analyses
   depict a buoyancy gradient draped from southeast MI into western NY.
   Storm propagation along this gradient appears possible based on
   latest convective trends. If this continues, some severe wind threat
   may manifest across the greater Buffalo, NY region in the coming
   hours. Across both regions, convective trends will be monitored and
   watch issuance may be required.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42507890 42627912 42887917 43077912 43267901 43327877
               43367822 43317765 43287727 43367670 43607632 43827620
               44127624 44267618 44927524 45057480 45057367 44837340
               44527346 44347360 42327701 42137752 42187787 42507890 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Today the dangerous heat is over most of the region!

 

 Side note, while we’re burning up, they had a snowstorm out west in the northern Rockies, including Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming,

Yesterday afternoon and evening saw a damaging MCS move across the northern Half of New York State. Then another MCS dropped into New York State down from Canada during the overnight into early this morning. The 2^nd MCS had a ton of lightning with it, as it slowly weakened as it dropped south and east across New York State into southern New England.

 

Looking at the current surface chart and temperature profile

We can see several troughs over the region.  These troughs and shortwaves that will be dropping through could cause thunderstorms to quickly flare up. If the cap breaks, they could become strong to severe.  

 

 

The radar image shows the MCSs in the Upper Midwest, that are going to rotate around the dome and drop into New York State later today. 

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Image courtesy of Pivotal Weather  

Today the heat dome is going to be in complete control of our weather in this region. So expect it to be hazy, hot and humid.  Air temperatures are going to be in the upper 80’s into the low 100s north to south across the region, high dewpoints are going to make feel like temperatures in the mid 90’s and well into the 100s. This is dangerous heat. If you’re going to be outside working, make sure you’re well hydrated, by drinking plenty of water. Take several heat breaks in shaded or air-conditioned areas. These conditions make it easy for anyone to have heat-related illnesses    There is also going to be the risk for scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. As was the case yesterday, shortwaves are going to be rotating around the edge of the ridge. These are going to cause powerful MCSs to move over the Upper Midwest north of the Great Lakes across southern Canada, and then drop down into New York State into New England. There is likely going to be at least a couple of waves of these thunderstorm complexes during the day extending into the overnight. Bringing the threat of damaging winds of 70+ mph, along with heavy downpours, moderate to large hail and frequent vivid lightning.

 Images courtesy of Pivotal Weather 

Those of Y’all who are under the dome in much of Pennsylvania and the middle Atlantic region the thunderstorms will be slow moving. While the thunderstorms and complexes dropping out of Canada and the Saint Laurence Valley and moving over New York State into New England will be moving quicker.

 

Thursday will likely be even hotter than Wednesday, as the heat builds on itself, again with the risk for severe weather.

 

Image courtesy of Pivotal Weather 

 

Friday is going to see the ridge start to retrograde west and south. Temperatures will slowly start to lower across upstate New York State and northern and Central New England. But temperatures are still going to be above average. Those under the dome will likely see their temperatures as warm or warmer than Thursday. The Ridge responsible for all the heat in the east is going to start move off the southeast Coast along with a ridge building once again over the Plains and points west.

Image courtesy of Pivotal Weather 

Saturday and Sunday is going to still be very hot across southern New England. the I-95 including New York City and points south down into the Southeast. Sunday will see the heat start to back off across Connecticut, Rhode Island and New York City. But places like Washington DC, Philadelphia, Atlantic City and Western Pennsylvania including Pittsburgh will still be experiencing a lot of heat. As the dome starts to break down showers and storms including severe weather will be possible each day of the July 4th weekend for Pennsylvania and the Northern Middle Atlantic, especially on Saturday.  Sunday will see the thunderstorms become more widespread ahead of an approaching cold front, due to the clouds and rain it will be a little cooler. The cold front will be slowly moving through on Monday bringing more widespread showers and rain.  This cold front is going to break the heat, allowing for temperatures to be much cooler by Tuesday as we sit under a trough. Wednesday will see high pressure moving in from Canada.  

Stay cool and safe out there! 

 

Dangerously hot & humid starting tomorrow!

 

The warm front is pushing into the region; behind it there is a lot of high heat and humidity.  We do have a weakening complex that is moving into Northern New York State.  

 

This along with the front will kick off some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening and overnight. Some of these storms will become severe, with the chance for strong gusty winds being the main threat, but hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be a issue as well. There will also be the risk for a few tornadoes spinning up.

 

Tomorrow the heat and humidity we be here in full force, with Thursday likely being even hotter. High temperatures for the entire region will be in the upper 80 through the low 100s.

Each day will feature the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms some of which will be strong to severe. As these thunderstorm complexes continue to rotate into the region.

There won’t be much relief from the heat overnight, with temperatures staying very warm with high humidity.

Although the heat dome will shift toward the south-central U.S. during the holiday weekend, it will continue to be hot and humid conditions across much of Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic. While the Northeast will be cooler than Thursday and Friday, temperatures will still be above average.

Heat indexes (the feel like temperature) will be in the upper 90’s well into the 100s for Wednesday into Friday.  Wildfire smoke may also become an air quality issue.

Here is what the Weather Prediction Center is showing for the heat wave. 

Here’s a look at the daily impacts that can generally be expected. 

This expansive upper-level ridge heat dome will fuel repeated ridge runner thunderstorms capable of producing Mesoscale Convective Systems and derechos across parts of the north-central and northeast into the 4^th of July weekend.

Have a great day and stay weather aware this week. Remember your hot weather safety!