High pressure building in

 A really quick post on the next few days.

 

Surface chart and radar.

 

We still have those persistent complexes of thunderstorms move over the Midwest.  As has been the case for the last several days these will drop south and east.  Looking at the radar we can see some of this is clipping Southwest Pennsylvania.  Most of this should stay south and west of Pittsburgh, But the threat for isolated showers will be there.  The threat for showers will extend across southern Pennsylvania into Maryland Delaware and Southern New Jersey today, rain could be very heavy at times. Across the rest of New York State and New England there could be a few hit and miss showers, with the threat for a few thunderstorms, especially over New York State, these thunderstorms should be non-severe.

Dewpoints across New York State and northern and Central New England are very comfortable. But those dewpoints are still in the 60’s and low 70’ s south of there. The disturbance leaving the Ohio Valley, is going to be heading for the Delmarva Peninsula, as this heads toward the Delmarva, humidity across Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic will be dropping west to east.

We’re going to be dealing with a meandering boundary over the next couple of days, this will be dropping south tomorrow providing the region with a mostly dry Saturday with lower dew points and slightly below average temperatures, then the boundary will be returning on Sunday, as a stronger frontal system approaches and moves through. The leading warm front will allow temperatures and humidity levels to climb, along with the chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms.  Then the trailing cold front will work through, bringing widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe this will be especially true across southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware into New Jersey. Rain could be heavy at times. The heavy rain could trigger urban and flash flooding.

The rain will extend into Monday, but that cold front will clear out the humidity. As high-pressure approaches, temperatures will be fairly comfortable for Tuesday and Wednesday. But days look to be mainly dry. Then another frontal system will roll through for Thursday into Friday.

 

 

Drought Thursday!

 

Many areas in Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southern New England have seen drought conditions ease because of recent heavy rains. For instance, they removed severe drought from southeastern New Hampshire and northeastern Massachusetts, while in portions of New York’s Long Island, Massachusetts, and southeastern New Hampshire. However, conditions deteriorated in parts of northern New England. For example, they introduced severe drought in coastal Maine, and moderate drought also spread in that state.

All in all, Drought conditions are far better than last summer

The U.S. Drought Monitor released this morning showed 2% of New York and New England in severe drought, 12% in moderate drought, and 29% as abnormally dry compared to 2%, 10%, and 22%, respectively, last week. The U.S. Drought Monitor released this morning showed 2% of New York and New England in severe drought, 12% in moderate drought, and 29% as abnormally dry compared to 2%, 10%, and 22%, respectively, last week.

The pattern looks to stay fairly active, so I expect to see continued improvement in the areas that need it. 

A bit muggy with a mix of sun and clouds

 Surface Chart, radar and satellite. 

We can see another MCS tracking along the edge of that heat dome. This will bring severe weather for far eastern Nebraska to part of the Ohio Valley. This is going to drop south and east into the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians. Over our region we can see the thunderstorms that brought all the thunderstorms to parts of southeast New York State and the Middle Atlantic overnight into this morning, are pulling away from the region.

For western Maryland a shower or thunderstorm is possible, especially further south and west. For the rest of us, there will be a mix of sun and clouds along thing things feeling muggy but it will be seasonally warm.  An approaching cold front will bring a chance for isolated showers this afternoon and evening, but the vast majority of y’all won’t see them. There is still a bit of wildfire smoke in the mid to upper atmosphere, while it won’t reach the ground, it could still cause issues for those sensitive to the smoke.

The cold front will slide through tonight and tomorrow morning will bring breezy conditions and some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms; these are most likely to be non-severe

An approaching cold front will bring the chance for a few hit or miss showers in the afternoon and early evening. Perhaps a rumble of thunder. These showers would be very isolated, and any storms are likely to be non-severe. Have the umbrella handy, but most of the day you will not need it.  Tomorrow will be a bit cooler and looks to be mainly dry, with the humidity clearing out in time for the weekend.

Saturday into Sunday is looking to be fairly tranquil with comfortable conditions.  Then things go downhill, a warm front will move into the region overnight Saturday into Sunday, bringing more clouds and increasing humidity by Sunday morning the air will have a tropical feel. Sunday will see mainly cloudy skies with waves of rain and thunderstorms developing and moving west to east. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong to severe. Any storms that develop will have the risk for torrential rain, creating the risk for localized urban and flash flooding.  Frequent lightning is also a danger. Isolated storms could also contain strong winds and hail. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

The cold front will continue to push through on Monday keeping things unsettled.  Tuesday thru Thursday will see a series of troughs and weak cold fronts move through, most of the time should be dry, but there will be a chance for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Tropical

Cristobal

As I said yesterday Tropical Storm Cristobal wouldn’t stick around for long. Currently he is post tropical and should end up dissipating today.

Invest 92L

We still have 92L sitting south of Cristobal heading toward the western Atlantic. The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day odds at 80% (not sure why 92Ls has odds that high or why cone is still red) On satellite it isn’t super organized due to that wind shear and dry air, but it is looking a little bit healthier right now.  Wind shear and dry air will continue to be a problem. if it survives there is still a chance 92L will become at least a depression before it moves into the eastern Caribbean Islands.  Once in the Caribbean that significant wind shear should completely shred this

Invest 94L

The NHC is now calling the disturbance to the east of 92L Invest, 94L.  94L has 2-day development odds of 30% and 7-day odds of 50%.  94L looks unorganized but it is starting to develop some convection (thunderstorms), The conditions ahead are marginally favorable, as 92L as left more atmospheric moisture in its wake. and it may be more apt to develop, as 92L has helped “seed” the lane in front of 94L with added moisture. But it will still have to deal with a lot of wind shear; making it difficult for this to develop. So, for now we will watch and see what happens.

 

 

A quick post on the tropical Atlantic.

 Here's a quick post on the tropics

 

First the Elephant in the room!

Yes, the NHC is showing Cristobal, I don’t necessarily agree with this assessment, it looks more like a ham sandwich to me, but I don’t call the shots. Regardless, Cristobal will be short-lived as it tracks east-northeast out into the open Atlantic and poses no threat to land. Cristobal has max sustained winds of 45 mph, with a min central pressure of 1008mb

We are also tracking two tropical waves in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.

 Invest 92L

The westernmost disturbance is Invest 92L. The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day development odds at 80%. This is likely to become a tropical depression within the next couple of days as it generally heads toward the Caribbean.

I’ve been talking about the two scenarios for 92L: I had thought a scenario of this curving north and becoming a developing storm the most likely.  

But right now, this tracking northward is for the most part off the table. So, a westward trajectory near or over the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean. Or it could head toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for late weekend into early next week. 92L is still dealing with dry air; this will continue to be an issue. But in spite of that, there is a chance that 92L takes the name Dolly down the road.

Wind shear is still very hostile 

Behind 92L

A second tropical wave disturbance. The NHC is giving that wave in the orange cone a 40% chance of development.   If it can hold itself together and develop the track looks to carry it closer to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

The African wave train is picking up steam; we have 4-5 more waves that are sitting over Africa. so it could get interesting as we head toward the peak of the season. 

That's it for today!

 

lower chance for severe weather for now.

 Yesterday the Midwest had a deadly derecho. A derecho is a special kind of mesoscale convective system and is a widespread, long-lived windstorm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. In order to be classified as a derecho, a disturbance needs to stretch at least 250 miles long and be at least 60 miles wide, Tuesday’s derecho traveled 614 miles from start to finish. The derecho started in eastern Iowa and spread through Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky, causing widespread damage, a lot of the damaging wind was along a 400-mile path, with winds of 90 to 100 mph. The good news for our region is that this stayed south and west of our region.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite.

 

(Why do I always show surface charts, radar, and stuff? To help you visualized what I’m talking about).

The surface chart is showing that stationary front sitting to our south. On the Satellite image we can see that mesoscale convective system well to our east. As the northeastern edge of the heat dome continues to retreat southwestward today, the severe weather is going to shift toward the southwest as well. We're sitting between 2 disturbances 1 in Canada and 1 to the south. Northern and southern parts of the region could see some rain and maybe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Today

with the activity out west, there is a chance some of this could push into western Pennsylvania, so the SPC has a Marginal Risk 

The region will see more sun and average to above average warmth, but there will be clouds here and there. Today, the Northeast will see a partial solar eclipse beginning at about 1:07 p.m. ET, peaking at 1:54 p.m. with about 9% of the Sun covered, and ending at 2:38 p.m.  The percentage of the sun that will be covered depends on your location, (these are rounded) northern Maine (28%), Portland, ME (19%), Burlington, VT (17%), Boston, MA (16%), and New York City (10%). Washington DC ((almost 4%) Pittsburgh will see (around 2%). Never look directly at the Sun through regular sunglasses, binoculars, or a telescope without a proper solar filter.

Tonight the stationary front will be become a warm front and will be moving north. This will increase clouds (these could interfere, with viewing the Perseid meteor shower which peaks tonight) As the front moves north showers and a few thunderstorms will move with it.  We also have a bit of wildfire smoke to deal with. The heat and humidity will continue to advance slowly through the region.

Thursday night and Friday will see a cold front dropping south. This will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms; the severe threat is low. Skies will be clearing north to south as the boundary slides through. By Friday night the front should be down around the Mason Dixon Line.  High Pressure will move in for Saturday into Sunday. On Sunday the high pressure will be starting push away, but most of the day should be dry. Then Sunday night and Monday a frontal system will approach and move through, the leading warm front will bring isolated showers and storms, with the cold front moving through later, bring a better chance for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms.  High pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Then for Wednesday night and Thursday a cold front will move through.

Have a great day!  

 

Another day of stormy weather.

 

Yesterday saw a lot of severe weather over Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic Region. 

Temperatures today are warm to very warm, with humidity getting higher the farther south you are. The muggy conditions over Pennsylvania and Mid Atlantic will be very supportive for thunderstorms. 

Images curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Surface chart and radar.

That stalled frontal boundary just to our west stands out.  On radar we can see several thunderstorm complexes over the Upper Midwest and Midwest. These show up very well on I/R satellite. 

These are going to drop across Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware. Bringing the chance for severe weather this afternoon and evening.

These complexes will likely move through Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware. Bringing the chance for severe weather this afternoon into tonight. We have that strong high-pressure ridge building out of the Southwest. This is creating a very strong northwest Flow over the upper Plains and dropping through the Midwest. We look to see a Mesoscale Convective Complex (organized complex of thunderstorms) dive out of the Upper Midwest. This could bring damaging winds down through the Midwest and Ohio Valley.  

 This MCC could clip Southwest Pennsylvania. All of these complexes of storms will likely bring a repeat of yesterday's severe weather generally to the same areas. But it could end up slightly farther south.

The Thunderstorms that form this afternoon into tonight, will be capable of strong damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning. And very heavy downpours. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe storms over central and southern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware, with the Slight Risk clipping southwest Pennsylvania. The Enhanced Risk in the Ohio Valley will have to be watched if the SPC expands this later today.

 

Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather

Tomorrow will see the same general pattern continue, but the severe threat will be dropping south and west. 

Today and tomorrow there will be a risk for isolated showers over New York State and New England, but many won’t see them.  We do have a touch of Canadian wildfire smoke creating a haze in the sky

Changes start to develop tomorrow night into Thursday.   That frontal boundary will move north allowing heat and humidity to surge northward.  This will increase the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southern tier of New York state, Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic. North of there the risk will be more isolated.

A cold front dropping south, will bring in much cooler and drier air for the entire region. This cooler drier weather will continue through the Weekend. The higher elevations across northern New York State and northern New England could become a bit chilly.  

Sunday will see the high pressure start o push east, as a warm front approaches from the Ohio Valley.  As these warm front lifts through we could see a few showers. Then Sunday night into Monday a cold front will drop through, bringing scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms. Depending on timing some of these storms could be on the strong side.  The front will be pushing east by Monday night. Tuesday will see conditions improving with lingering showers hanging around. 

Tropical Atlantic.

We have two areas being watched

The one in the northern Atlantic is unchanged with a 10% chance for development. But as this continues to move across the open Atlantic conditions will become even more hostile, so any development with this is highly unlikely.

The one south and west of the Cabo Verde Islands, is the one to watch. The National Hurricane Center has upped the odds on this tropical wave. They now have the odds of this developing at 30% over the next 2 days and a high 70% over the next 7 days, that it will develop into a tropical depression or named storm later this week.

If this stays on a southern track and heads toward and into the eastern Caribbean, that strong wind shear will rip this apart.  I still think this is going to Try to take more of a north and west track at some point. There is quite a bit of Saharan Dust to the north of the wave.

Saharan Air Layer (SAL) image shows this.  I have a white circle showing the location of the tropical wave.

The SAL is going to give this wave a lot of problems. If it can survive this and move into the warmer SST to the west it will have a chance. As I said yesterday, the ridge and trough interactions over the East Coast should keep this away from the Coast.

 

 

The Atlantic is waking up.

Tropical Atlantic

As we move toward the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, we’re starting to see signs the Atlantic is trying to wake up. As of today, the National Hurricane Center is identifying three areas to watch for development.

I will start with disturbances 2 and 3

#2

This is being given 2 day and 7-day development odds of 10%. For now, this is a low to moderate area for development. But this won’t last. Upper-level wind shear is going to become less supportive for development, as it heads into an area of higher amount of shear and dust. later in the week. As the approaches the lesser Antilles windshear is going to become very hostile, so this system should completely fall apart.  

#3

Meanwhile, we have that broad area of low pressure over the open north Atlantic north and west of Bermuda, The NHC is giving this a 10% chance for development. This is part of the disturbance that impacted the southeast CONUS over the weekend. This is moving quickly eastward and will travel north of Bermuda into a hostile environment. Regardless of development, it poses no threat to land.

Looking at the wind shear over the Caribbean and Main Development Region, we can see wind shear is quite significant. That shear has to do to a large part to the El Nino pattern I’ve been talking about.

  

The SSTs in the northern Caribbean and Gulf are ranging from around 88°F to around 92°F. Out over the MDR the SST are ranging from 78°F to around 84°F.

Saharan Air Layer 

#1

This wave has a higher chance of development, the NHC is giving this a 2-day chance of 20% and a 7-day chance of 60%.

There are two scenarios

It could move toward the Caribbean where all that shear will likely tear it apart. Or it could track more north and west, if a weakness develops in the Bermuda High. This track will keep this wave north of the #2, where there will be more moisture available in the middle and upper levels for development. This second scenario IMO is the more likely.  If it does take that track there is a good chance this becomes a tropical depression as we get into the end of this week.  The odds of this making an impact on the East Coast is quite low, as there will be a complex ridge/trough setup over the East.

 That's it for today!

An active few days!

The pattern is going to be hot and humid and very unsettled for much of this work week. It will likely extend into the coming weekend.

 Surface chart and radar.

We can see the first in a series of shortwave energy over Ohio. Over the next few days, we’re going to see these complexes of storms roll from northwest to southeast, moving over the top of the ridge.

That stalled frontal boundary is going to move back north as a warm front.

 

Across southern New York State, Pennsylvania, and Middle Atlantic the temperature will be very warm with moderately high humidity. North of there, temperatures are a bit cooler with humidity levels slightly less. As the front slides north and the shortwave advances east, showers and thunderstorms will be around for the afternoon and evening. These should be slowly tapering off tonight and thru overnight. As a cold front will drop through during the overnight, so we should see humidity levels and humidity drop a little behind the front.

The storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Severe weather across most of Pennsylvania and Maryland. With a Moderate Risk that extends across Southern New York State south of the Thruway. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be a possible this afternoon and evening.    the thunderstorms that form will be capable of damaging winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning, with the heavy rain due to the increased moisture in the air, flash flooding will be a big concern.

Tomorrow will see a very tropical airmass for areas south of the stalled frontal boundary. While areas north of the boundary will be a little cooler with lower dewpoints. Another shortwave will move along the boundary, so it will be another day with scattered showers and thunderstorms some of which will be strong to severe. Again, some of these storms could contain damaging winds, heavy downpours with frequent Lightning. The flooding risk will continue.

The pattern will continue for Wednesday. Muggy air will be surging back north, as a warm front pushes in, with showers and thunderstorms rolling through later Wednesday into Thursday.

Friday will see a cold front approach and try to move through.  Ahead of the front winds will become quite breezy.  High pressure will be overhead, so Friday into Saturday look to see cooler temperatures with humidity much lower.  The region should be mainly dry with only a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Sunday, an approaching area of low pressure with a front will produce few isolated to scattered rain showers.  Some of these storms could be on the strong to severe side.  Monday will see the front pushing east, with lingering rain showers. Temperatures and humidity will become very refreshing.

 

 

 

A dry and fairly comfortable Sunday.

 This will be a quick post that covers the overall weather setup for this week.

Today the temperature is a little cooler, and humidity is way down from what it was!

 

 

Surface chart and radar.

We can see that upper-level low over central into eastern Canada. With a strong ridge over the Southeast extending toward the Southeast US.  

That heat dome in the Southwest is going to move into the Plains.  As has been the case all summer, thunderstorm complexes are going to rotate around that high pressure ridge. The flow between the two dominate features, is going to direct these complexes into the northern Plains and then drop south and east across the Midwest.  The setup means that the Northeast is going to be sitting under a trough during this week.  

 

Tonight we’re going to see a very large thunderstorm complex (MCS) develop in the upper Midwest this will drop down into Indiana and Ohio. Tomorrow morning this could clip southwest Pennsylvania.  There will be the chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms, heavy rain, damaging winds, and frequent lightning are going to be the primary concerns. Tomorrow that cold /stationary front is going to push back north as a warm front, bringing with it a shower or thunderstorm. Temperatures will climb and humidity will start to climb. Then a cold front will drop in and will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

 

Another complex of storms looks to drop into Western Pennsylvania on Tuesday. bringing the threat of damaging wind and heavy downpours leading to localized flooding.  Those with the greatest chance of seeing scattered thunderstorms and isolated severe storms will be across Pennsylvania, into the Southern Tier of New York State and across Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey.

 

Wednesday will see the cold front stall over the region with increasing clouds and showers and storms will fire Wednesday afternoon/evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. As will be the case tomorrow and Tuesday, those with the greatest chance for seeing severe storms will be across Pennsylvania into the rest of the northern Middle Atlantic.

Across New York State and New England, the weather will be unsettled for Monday thru Wednesday, widespread severe weather is unlikely, but there could be some isolated strong storms.

For Wednesday into the coming weekend, it will remain a bit unsettled. But a trough is going to drop into the region, allowing for below average temperatures and lower humidity.

 

 Tropical Atlantic

There are a couple of areas in the eastern and central Atlantic that the NHC is watching. The first wave has a 20% chance for development over the next 7 days, while the 2^nd coming off of Africa has a higher 50% chance.

Conditions are somewhat favorable for the next 48 to 60 hours.  Then we’re going to see wind shear, Saharan dust and dry air in the mid-levels develop. SSTs are below average, but there are pockets where SST are closer to 82°F. As this approaches the Caribbean conditions are going to be very unfavorable.

However, the first wave could indirectly influence the environment ahead of the second disturbance set to move off Africa early next week.

As the First wave moves through the Atlantic, it could clear out some of the dry air and dust allowing the environment ahead of the second wave somewhat more favorable. That will depend on how far north will be as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Both tropical waves are going to continue moving westward across the Atlantic, the overall setup doesn’t bode well for them, but it that second wave develops quick enough it has a shot as some development.  The ridging over the Southeast into Middle Atlantic could pull this toward the East Coast, then it would likely be forced north and east around that Northeast Ridge.  We will see how all of this goes, but I’m not expecting much out of these tropical waves.