Everything will go downhill from here!

We've been busy getting ready for winter and getting hay in. So, the post have been later than I would like.  

This is going to be a long duration coastal storm….

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

We’re watching low pressure develop off the East Coast, with strong high pressure in place over eastern Canada.

Water has been piling up in the Chesapeake Bay and along the Jersey Shore. These areas are already dealing with tidal flooding. In addition, dangerous rip currents are impacting the Jersey shore. This is ahead of the impact of the nor'easter.

As it develops it will become cut off from the jet stream and meander around as it slowly moves up the east coast. So, we’re going to see rounds of rain develop Friday afternoon from North Carolina to Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The rain will become steady, at times heavy, and these northeast winds will prevail through the weekend continuing to pile up the water.

Wind gusts run 30-60mph, with a chance for localized wind gust approaching hurricane force at the coast, especially across Southeast Massachusetts. With leaves on the trees the risk for tree damage and scattered power outages increases.

Saturday through Monday, windy rain showers will be off and on from New Jersey to Maine.

The storm looks to loop toward New England, So the strongest winds and heaviest rain look to stay away from New York City down into the Middle Atlantic. But this means, the strongest impacts look to occur Friday night through Saturday night along Rhode Island, central and eastern Massachusetts, eastern Connecticut, southeastern New Hampshire and the southern Maine coast.

Rain totals could reach 2-to-4 inches from New Jersey to southern Maine. Higher totals of 4-to-6 inches could impact Boston, Cape and offshore islands, Rhode Island Southeast Connecticut and Long Island, New York. Rain totals of 6+ inches are possible especially from central Massachusetts to Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard.

Waves of 10-15 feet are likely from North Carolina's Outer Banks to the New Jersey shore through Saturday.  Then from Friday to Sunday, huge waves of 15 to 20 feet are possible from Massachusetts to Maine.

Improvement is instore for the mid-Atlantic this weekend, with things improving by Monday for New England.

Given that the nor'easter will be slowly moving and sitting over the very warm water of the Gulf Stream for two or three days, the storm could become subtropical. But regardless of classification, the storms impact for coastal areas will be the same.

The biggest impacts from this nor’easter will be over eastern New England Friday through Sunday, some rain and wind will make it into western New England… northern and central Vermont (including the Champlain Valley), much of New Hampshire, central Maine into eastern New York State during the day on Saturday. Generally, rainfall looks to be around 1-2 inches of rainfall, with gust of 20-40 mph.  rain showers will make it as far west as Central New York into northern Vermont, far northern New Hampshire and northern Maine over the weekend. Rainfall totals look to be 0.25- 1.0 inches with wind gust of 10-20 mph.

Showers and breezy conditions will linger across Southeast and eastern New England Monday before things begin to improve for by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Our coastal is developing

 

This post will cover possible impacts from the developing nor’easter.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

 

Today is the first full day of Fall.

 

The Upper Level Low (ULL) in the northern jet over the Ohio Valley is starting to interact with the developing coastal low off the Southeast Coast. This interaction is going to increase over the next 36 to 48 hours.

These persistent northeast – east winds over the East Coast are already leading to some tidal flooding issues, this is going to be an increasing issue over the next few days.  Here’s a look at the current NWS watches and advisories courtesy of pivotal weather.

 

Satellite shows the subtropical jet pushing tropical moisture northward. We can also see all the clear to mostly clear skies over a large part of the region due to that strengthening high pressure in the polar jet which is currently over southeast Canada.

We still don’t know the full extent of the interaction between the two lows and that high pressure centered north of Maine. All of this will decide strength and track of this developing Nor’easter. That high pressure is going to act like a block, keeping this from going out to sea.

Based on how things look right now.

Along the Delaware Coast and Jersey Shore extending up over Long Island and Southeast Massachusetts, including Marthas Vinyard and Nantucket. Wind gust of 40-60 mph, potentially reaching hurricane force (especially southeast Massachusetts). Many trees still have their leaves increasing the risk of tree damage and power outages.

1-2 inches of rain is likely for Delaware, New Jersey, far eastern Pennsylvania, Southeast New York State (including the Mid-Hudson Valley, NYC and eastern and central Long Island), western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, southern Vermont, southern and central New Hampshire and southern Maine. Those with the best chance of seeing 2-4 inches of rain will be eastern Long Island, eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, southeast New Hampshire (especially the seacoast), and possibility extreme southern Maine.  For most of eastern Pennsylvania into Central Pennsylvania, eastern into central New York State, northern Vermont, far northern New Hampshire and northern Maine 0.25 to 1.0 inches. Elsewhere it looks like mainly cloudy skies and potential showers.

For today into tomorrow, New Jesey and Delaware will be dealing with increasing winds. The winds across Long Island into New England will become an issue for Friday into Sunday.

There is a good chance for mild to moderate coastal flooding with this nor’easter, as tides start running astronomically higher too.  Seas will be very rough, with big waves building offshore, wave heights of 15 to 20 feet with a pounding surf through the weekend, significant beach erosion is looking likely.

The nor'easter looks to be pulling away on Monday.  

  

Graphics from National Weather Service Mount Holly

 

 

 

Graphics from National Weather Service Boston

Early season nor’easter!!!

 Fall starts at 8:05 p.m. EDT this evening.

Sorry, this is so late....

Today

Much of the week ahead will be coolish and a bit unsettled for Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlatnic. but high pressure just to our north, looks to keep the northern part of the region mainly dry Wednesday and Thursday; all in all, it will be fairly nice fall weather. But that could change as we approach the weekend.

The week ahead

 The persistent northeast – east flow over the East Coast is going to push water into the coastal plain.  So, this will enhance high tides, and even low tides will see higher water levels than they would normally be. As the week goes on, all of this will build on itself leading to higher and higher water levels in the inlets, bays and sounds.

 

How the polar and subtropical jets interact will be very important to what happens this weekend! We have the upper-level low (ULL) over the Upper Great Lakes and developing low pressure off the Florida Coast.   The low over the Great Lakes is going to track south and east; the low off the Southeast Coast is going to track north and east. Both of these will end up interacting and develop a storm, off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The timing of all of this will be the key in how strong the Coastal Storm gets.  We’ve been having shortwaves associated with the ULL in the Lakes track across Pennsylvania into the Mid-Atlantic, these also have their part to play in storm development. We also are going to have tropical moisture winging its way into the mix. This is a very complicated storm setup.

Because of the onshore flow, tidal flooding could start tomorrow for the Delmarva up through New Jersey. Thursday and Friday will see the coastal flooding risk increase, with New England dealing with coastal flooding over the Weekend.

We still have the two scenarios I talked about yesterday, #1 had the storm closer to the coast and then move toward the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast., resulting in a big impact storm. #2 had the storm staying a little farther east taking some of the heavy rain with it. Both scenarios have the coastal become cut-off and meander for a few days. Those looking for this to head out to sea, will be out of luck, as the block doesn’t allow for that to happen.

As the storm tracks northward, onshore winds and rain increase. Wind gust of 50-60 mph is possible, with gust of hurricane force possible for some along the coast. Along the coast, 1-2+ inches of rain is possible, with parts of southeast New England and closer to Boston seeing a chance for 3-4 inches of rain. Rain amounts will be falling off the farther north and west you go. This could keep part of eastern Pennsylvania into Central New York State on the fringe. The strength and position of high pressure over southern Canada, will have a big impact on the exact track and when this becomes cut-off, will determine who sees what.  Friday and the weekend will see a storm/nor’easter the only question is how strong it becomes.  The water off the Middle Atlantic and Southern New England Coast are abnormally warm. With this meandering around, there is a chance this becomes subtropical.

 

The Atlantic

Tropical Storm Fay has been downgraded to a tropical depression and has max sustained winds of 35mph, min central pressure is 1010mb. TD Fay is tracking southwest at 10mph. She ended up becoming the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone this season with max sustained winds of around 70mph, But she is now in the process of dying over the open northeastern Atlantic.

 

We also have that tropical wave that is coming off of Africa. The NHC has the development odds for this at 30%. As it gets off the African Coast it should track northwest then north because of strong steering  winds.  Those in Europe should keep an eye on this. 

Welcome to the last full day of summer

Autumn officially begins Tuesday evening at 8:05 PM.  The weather will be on a loop for the first half the week before we start to see a coastal storm bring impacts for the second half of the week.

We’re going to have a frontal boundary that will stall to our south with a few areas of low-pressure systems tracking along the boundary from an upper-level low over the Great Lakes. These little shortwaves will keep it unsettled across Pennsylvania, New Jersey and points south. We’re also going to have strong high pressure to our north over eastern and Atlantic Canada. All of this will keep us in a fall pattern with fall like temperatures.  However, we do have summer like heat in the Tennessee River Valley, that will keep southern moisture streaming northward. All of this is going to interact as the first big storm of the fall is developing. If that ULL over the Great Lakes and the coastal systems interact and work in tandem, a coastal storm is forecast to form and strengthen into a nor'easter along the mid-Atlantic coast this week.

 

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

 

Today

Today will be damp and dreary with on and off showers and areas of drizzle, however, skies will begin to clear as the day goes on. But the first big storm of the fall is starting to develop.

The week ahead

Nor’easter/hybrid

Tuesday into Thursday we will be dealing with a persistent northeast to easterly wind keeping things coolish. The onshore flow will aid in the coastal flooding that could develop as a strong coastal storm moves up the coast.

Looking at the 500mb pattern on the GFS from Tropical Tidbits. We can see the blocking pattern that will develop. This will lead to these shortwaves tracking east out of the Midwest stalling. Then a strong cold front will push offshore. All of these pieces will interact, and low pressure will develop and move up the Coast.

The key to all of this is the interaction between the system in the Midwest and the Coastal. If they interact just right, we’re going to see this develop into a strong nor'easter. This will bring about two scenarios. How these scenarios play out will have a lot to say about the risk of flooding rain, damaging winds, storm surge and beach erosion. Starting late Wednesday and Thursday, we’re going to be watching all this develop!

scenario #1 The storm will track closer to the Coast, where it will become cut off and meander offshore for a few days, then retrograde (drift west) closer to the Coast for Friday into the Weekend. If this is the case, high surf, strong winds of 60-70 mph, several inches of rain, coastal flooding and severe beach erosion, with offshore waves reaching 15 to 20 feet.

As I said above we’re going to have an onshore flow, that will last through multiple high tide cycles, this will add to the potential problems as water stacks up along the coast, this will be especially true for the bays and sounds of New Jersey, Delaware, and Long Island.

Scenario #2 will have the storm track farther east and away from the Coast. This scenario still brings a lot of wind to the Coast, but we end up with much less rain.

Scenario #1 would mean a lot of coastal flooding extending from the Carolinas up through the Middle Atlantic and Long Island during the work week, then this would push into New England for Friday and the Weekend.  It is unclear if much of this will make it into Maine, where the rain is very much needed.

There is a chance that this coastal/nor’easter ends up developing into a hybrid system (a combination of a cold core and warm core system). There is also a chance this becomes the next named system, if it does the next name, is Gonzalo.

  

The Atlantic

Tropical Storm Fay has max sustained winds of 50mph (down from last night's 70mph). Fay’s min central pressure is 1000mb. Fay is going to keep wandering out in the middle of the open northern Atlantic and she poses no threat to land. The window for her to develop into the first hurricane of the season is closed, she will continue to weaken and dissipate as the week moves forward.

The fall pattern is developing

 An impressive pattern change is taking place for upcoming week.

 The heat ridge across the U.S. that has been a constant issue for most of the lower 48 has nearly broken down. The vast majority of the CONUS is seeing a zonal pattern. As is typical of this time of year, the polar vortex is forming above the Arctic this will be with us through the winter season. As many of y’all know the Polar Vortex is broad area of circulation over the northern (and southern) hemispheres. The Polar Vortex acts as a spinning wall over the polar regions, rising from the surface into the stratosphere. The stronger the vortex the greater the chance colder air gets locked up in the arctic.  The vortex is only a small piece of this winter's puzzle. Historically, strong El Ninos has increased the likelihood of the PV weakening at times. So, if it weakens from mid-January to February, it could allow colder-than-average temperatures to drop into the mid latitudes.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

Today

Today will feature on and off showers, that will be heavy at times, due to all that tropical moisture in the air.  The widespread nature of the rain, over New York State and Pennsylvania will be tapering off from west to east gradually as the afternoon progresses. With the exception of New England, most of the rain should be over by this evening. For New England rain will stick around for the evening into tonight before ending. But the Cape and offshore Islands could see lingering rain during the overnight.

The week ahead

For Monday and Tuesday, the front will stall to our south, with a frontal boundary hanging around for a few days. A couple areas of low pressure will move along this boundary keeping Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey unsettled.  Some of this could extend into the southern tier of New York State and parts of southern New England. But north of their Monday and Tuesday is looking dry. The Autumnal Equinox begins on Tuesday at 8:05 PM.

The coming work week is going to be very cool, with temperatures generally running 5-10 ° F below average for this time of year.

 Northern areas look to stay mainly dry for much of this week, but Wednesday and Thursday we look to see an upper-level low over the Middle Atlantic, there is a good chance a surface low will develop offshore and possibly form a Nor’easter by the weekend. With the strong high over eastern Canada winds will become very gusty, with gust greater than 30 mph possible.  The SST are quite warm, so this could try to develop into a subtropical disturbance.

 

The Atlantic

Tropical Storm Fay was named early this morning. Making her the 6^th named storm of the 2026 season. Fay is going to meander around the open northern Atlantic and looks to not be a threat to any landmass. Fay has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, min central pressure of 1004 mb, moving northeast at 3 mph. She is going to track southeast tomorrow, heading into hostile conditions for development, so her lifespan will only be a few days. The conditions ahead should keep her from becoming the season’s first hurricane, but stranger things have happened. 

Starting Saturday night...several days of wet conditions.

The first cold front has dropped through the region with the 2^nd one poised to drop through today.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

  

Today

Temperatures a cooler and humidity are lower across New York State and New England as well as northern Pennsylvania, but the rest of Pennsylvania central and southern New Jersey are still seeing some humidity with warmer temperatures. The satellite shows north of southern Pennsylvania is seeing quite a bit of Sun, but southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey are seeing more clouds than Sun.

As the 2^nd cold front drops in from the north, those temperatures and humidity will drop as drier air moves in. These cooler and dry conditions

 

The weekend

The second cold front is part of a trough that is dropping into the region. This trough is going to interact with the warm humid air associated with the Southeast ridge extending into the Tennessee River Valley.   

High pressure is building in and will be setting over the region on Saturday. Leading to plenty of sun and below average temperatures. That will change come Saturday night and Sunday, as a warm front lifts in bringing widespread scattered showers and some thunderstorms, this will be a soaking rain which parts of the region need very badly. Western and central Pennsylvania and New York State will likely be dealing with rain on Saturday night, with the rest of the region seeing the rain on Sunday.

We’re going to have high pressure shift into the Gulf of Maine, sitting over southeastern Canada. So, the front will stall over the region, meaning cloudy skies and periods of rain for our Sunday.  Rain will be heavy at times, as the two air masses duke it out.

We can see that on the 850mb temperature anomaly from Tropical Tidbits.

That area of high pressure will set up an atmospheric block, which will bottle up the flow. So, we going to be dealing a stationary boundary for Monday and Tuesday, keeping things unsettled. Then for Wednesday and Thursday a cold front associated with another trough; that will keep it unsettled with scattered showers and cooler than average temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday.  Low pressure with another cold front will move through on Friday, this will mean periods of rain, heavy at times for Friday.

 

Staying unsettled

 We have the stalled cold front sitting over northern and western New York State. This will slowly drop across the region with increasing clouds and rain showers with isolated thunderstorms.  Southwest winds ahead of the boundary will allow temperatures and humidity to increase ahead of the frontal boundary.  Then for Friday into Saturday Canadian High pressure will build in with below average temperatures and lower humidity.

 

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

 

Today

Temperatures and humidity will make it feel quite muggy. Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms will be dropping south and east during the afternoon into tomorrow morning. A few showers could be heavy at times. Which could lead to ponding on roadways and lead to some poor drainage flooding. As the front slowly advances skies will slowly clear behind the front with conditions becoming drier. the cold front will move through across New England and the northern Middle Atlantic tonight, with scattered rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. 

Friday

 

The cold front will slide off the coast, and skies will clear as high pressure builds in. northwest winds will drive out the heat and humidity, the day will be chilly with low humidity

 

The weekend

High pressure will be setting over the region on Saturday. Sunshine should be abundant, with temperatures across the region being below to slightly below average.  The daytime hours should be dry. But an approaching warm front could allow rain showers to return Saturday across southern parts of the region, depending on the speed of that front. The warm front will continue to advance through the region on Sunday, with seasonal to slightly above-average temperatures. The front will stall over the region, meaning cloudy skies and periods of rain for our Sunday. 

Next Week

The stationary boundary will be hanging around for Sunday into Tuesday with periods of showers. Localized areas could see enough rain, that some flooding will be a concern.  Temperatures will be average to slightly above average for early Fall, as the frontal boundary finely clears the area by Wednesday.

High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday, with temperatures turning chilly once again. Then on Thursday low pressure with a cold front will move through with widely scattered showers.

The Autumnal Equinox is next Tuesday at 8:05 PM.

 Drought Conditions.

Per the Northeast Regional Climate Center

 

“September 17, 2026 - Conditions deteriorated again this week in Maine, where extreme drought was introduced and severe and moderate drought grew in coverage. In addition, moderate drought expanded in northern New Hampshire. There were only minor improvements in the region. This included a reduction in severe and moderate drought in southeastern Massachusetts and shrinking coverage of abnormal dryness in small sections of central Massachusetts, northern Connecticut, and western and central New York. The U.S. Drought Monitor released on September 17 showed 1% of New York and New England in extreme drought, 4% in severe drought, 31% in moderate drought, and 18% as abnormally dry compared to 0%, 5%, 25%, and 27%, respectively, last week.”

The Atlantic

The disturbance spinning several hundred miles east of Bermuda is now labeled Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center. The NHC lowered the odds yesterday. But improving conditions has allowed I-98L to become slightly better organized. So, the NHC has raised the odds back up to 40%

I-98L isn’t in the most favorable environment right now. But conditions will improve enough over the weekend that will give 98L a window to slowly develop. After that dry air will cause some issues.  Those with Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor 98L.  but for now, the odds of significant strengthening are low. 98L poses no threat to the U.S, as it will turn north and then northeast next week.