Much Cooler

Yesterday saw a least a couple of damaging tornadoes, in Jefferson County, Pennsylvania. One was confirmed around Reynoldsville and Sykesville,. The other confirmed tornado was in the Anita and Knoxdale. A National Weather Service (NWS) storm survey is currently underway to determine the rating for these tornadoes, as well as determine if other tornadoes occurred as well.

Today and Tuesday 

Today is certainly cooler than yesterday along with humidity levels being much lower. The surface chart shows the cold front is currently over Maine and is pushing east. Behind the front other than a few pesky showers the region is dry.   

A cooler than average temperatures with plenty of clouds will be the case today. This much more refreshing and cooler pattern will be with us for the first part of this week. Tuesday will have more in the way of Sun, so temperatures will be a little warmer, there will also be the very slight risk for a few spotty showers during the afternoon into the evening.

A couple of fronts will be dropping south and east out of the Upper Midwest. The first will be Tuesday night into Wednesday and the second stronger cold front, will move across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday.

Wednesday and Thursday

Ahead of these fronts, winds will become southernly allowing for temperatures to climb and dew points to rise. these fronts will approach and move through the region Wednesday and Thursday.

The cold front dropping out of the Great Lakes and Ohio valley on Wednesday will bring the chance for A few showers on Wednesday morning across western Parts of our region. This will work eastward during Wednesday bringing the chance for more in the way of widespread showers and storms. Those with the best chance of seeing thunderstorms will be across the western half of the region. Then the stronger front will move through for Wednesday night and Thursday. Bringing widespread rain showers and thunderstorms, some of these storms will be strong to severe. Winds for Wednesday night and Thursday will be quite gusty. The air will feel tropical on Thursday.as well.

 

Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather

Here’s a look at the storm Prediction Center’s 3-day severe outlook for Wednesday.  Western parts of New York State and Pennsylvania could see some severe storms in the evening into Wednesday night.  Then for Thursday the severe threat will shift east into the southern tier of New York state, part of southern New England, Pennsylvania and the rest of the Northern Middle Atlantic. Right now, the greatest threat looks to be across Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, into New Jersey. storm Prediction Center’s 3-day severe outlook for Thursday.

 

Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather

The strong to severe thunderstorms will have the possibility for damaging winds, hail, localized flooding and possibly a tornado are on the weather table.

 

 

 Friday and the weekend.

By the weekend the cold front will be to our east and high pressure is in charge again. So, the humidity drops again and we are back in the 70s for the weekend. Friday will have the chance for a few lingering rain showers, but many shouldn’t see them.  Both Saturday and Sunday will see a trough hanging around over New York State and New England. This could allow for isolated showers both days. Sunday night and Monday we will see a frontal system approach and move thorough, the leading warm front will warm us up, before the trailing cold front comes through with cooler temperatures and the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. 

 That's it!

 

  

Tornado and severe thunderstorm watch

 Tornado Watch Number 336

SEL6

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 336
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   540 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western and Central Pennsylvania

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 540 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells and a broken line of thunderstorms
   should pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes and scattered
   severe/damaging winds late this afternoon and continuing into the
   evening as they move eastward across parts of western and central
   Pennsylvania.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Dubois PA
   to 5 miles north of Williamsport PA. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...WW 334...WW 335...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 27035.

   ...Gleason

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 337


SEL7

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 337
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   705 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Delaware
     Eastern Maryland
     New Jersey
     Southern New York
     Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 705 PM
     until 100 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will spread eastward this
   evening and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging
   winds, with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph possible. A brief
   line-embedded tornado or two and occasional hail may also occur.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of
   Monticello NY to 35 miles south southwest of Dover DE. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...WW 334...WW
   335...WW 336...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27035.

   ...Gleason

Line of Thunderstorms developing.

 Severe update

The line of thunderstorms is going to move westward across the region some of the storms will turn severe.  The National Weather Service has issued a couple of Severe Thunderstorm Watches.

Everything I said earlier is still in play. These storms will be very capable of producing damaging winds of 60+ mph. winds this strong could knock down trees and power lines bringing the risk for scattered power outages. Moderate to perhaps large hail could also cause damage to personal property.   With the chance for heavy rain localized flash flooding could cause issues too. . Isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333

SEL3

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 333
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Far Southeast Indiana
     Extreme Northern Kentucky
     Ohio
     Western Pennsylvania
     Northern West Virginia
     Lake Erie

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until
     800 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in
   coverage and intensity along and ahead of a cold front moving
   eastward across the Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts will be the
   primary severe hazard, although isolated hail is possible within the
   strongest updrafts. A low-probability threat for a line-embedded
   tornado exists as well, particularly across eastern Ohio and western
   Pennsylvania later this afternoon/early evening.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 135
   statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast
   of Cleveland OH to 20 miles south southwest of Athens OH. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27035.

   ...Mosier

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 334

SEL4

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 334
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   245 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western New York
     Far Northern Pennsylvania
     Lake Erie
     Lake Ontario

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region
   this afternoon, along and ahead of a east-moving cold front. Overall
   buoyancy will likely remain modest, but moderate to strong
   deep-layer shear is in place, supporting the potential for
   occasionally organized bowing segments capable of damaging gusts.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
   Rochester NY to 10 miles south southeast of Bradford PA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27035.

   ...Mosier

Disturbance in the far western Gulf.

 I do have people who live along the gulf who do follow this page, so I wanted to do another post on the tropical Atlantic.

The low-pressure area I mentioned the other day that is a combination of a tropical wave that moved across the Caribbean and the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristina that moved across Central America from the eastern Pacific, is still sticking around.

Looking at the Gulf satellite image shows a broad area of low pressure sitting just off the eastern coast of Mexico south of Texas. The image shows this is poorly organized and is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. There is a strong area of high-pressure system sitting over the northeastern Gulf of America, this along with an approaching front is going to help steer the disturbance northward toward south Texas. 

The environmental conditions are going to be only marginally conducive for tropical development, at the 2 PM update NHC has assigned a low 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days. So, this will only have a short window to develop into anything.

Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical depression, Gulf moisture associated with the disturbance as it merges with the front will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to the southeastern portion Texas.

 

A Severe Sunday!

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Slight Risk for severe storms, across Western New England, New York State, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms over Eastern New England.

 

The surface chart shows the location of the slow-moving strong cold front getting ready to move across the region this afternoon through tonight. Ahead of and along the front rain showers and thunderstorms will move through region for northwest to southeast.

Unlike Friday, the wind profile is going to be more supportive for the development of severe thunderstorms, including the possibility for a few discreet supercell thunderstorms.

The biggest threats will be locally damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. There will also be the risk for hail, frequent lightning and even the risk for an isolated tornado or two.

The greatest chance for severe weather across the region will be between 2 PM and 11 PM today. General rainfall will be half of an inch to an inch. But those who get under severe thunderstorms could see rainfall of 2 to 3 inches, which could lead to Isolated to scattered localized flash flooding due to torrential downpours.   The timing of the front looks to be enough that the severe threat southern New England will be less, rain and thunderstorms will move through between 9 PM and 4 AM. There is a chance some of these could be severe with gusty winds and the possibility for heavy downpours.  

Here’s a look at the SPC’s excessive rainfall outlook. 

The map shows northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and a large part of Maine under a 10-20% chance of flash flooding. With the rest of Maine, western New England, New York State, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey at a 5-10% chance of flash flooding.

Behind the cold front cooler and lower humidity will move into the region for Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday will see temperatures start to climb, but it will still be comfortable. The chance for higher temperatures will increase for Wednesday into Friday, along with rain showers and thunderstorms, late Wednesday and Thursday could see more severe weather.

Stay weather aware today and have a way to be warned if severe weather approaches your area. 

Cooler today and dry, but rain comes back tomorrow.

 

I had to go to Plattsburgh Yesterday for a family matter. So, I wasn’t able to post anything for all y’all. Here is a quick post for the rest of this weekend and next week.

It has been sweltering the last few days with highs ranging from the upper lower 80s into the mid 90’s with heat indices in the middle 90s into the triple digits.  

The surface chart shows the cold front has move through the region, leaving temperatures a little cooler with lower humidity. So, for today there will be a mix of sun and clouds, and it will be a bit breezy. Ahead let another approaching cold front, there will be a chance for isolated rain showers and perhaps a rouge storm mid-to-late afternoon. The greatest risk for this will be closer to the Canadian Border. But most of the region will remain dry.

So, what happened with the severe weather over much of the region yesterday?

Yesterday the severe weather ended up being more or less a bust. To get widespread severe storms you need three basic ingredients: instability, wind shear, and moisture and a lifting mechanism to provide the “nudge.” We had moderate instability, with plenty of hot and humid air. But the progressive nature of the cold front, and the lack of a lot of wind shear (changes in wind speed and direction with height), was enough to keep the severe weather in check, with only some localized severe storms, the isolated storms were more of an issue for Southeast New York State into New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware.  In order to get a lot of severe storms we need everything to lineup just right.  

Tomorrow

 

A stronger cold front will move through tomorrow. The southern flow ahead of the front will become breezy and will allow for warm temperatures and higher dew points to move back into the region. With this there will be the chance for widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Some of these storms will bring the potential to be strong to severe. The greatest danger of any storms that end up forming will be damaging winds and heavy downpours. There will be a lesser risk for hail. With the humidity frequent lightning will be a risk. While one or two brief tornadoes are possible, the risk for this is very low, those closer to the Canadian Border and the northern Middle Atlantic have the best chance of seeing any tornadoes if they end up forming. The greatest time for severe storms will be around mid-afternoon into the evening.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the entire region under a Slight Risk for severe storms, across the Southern Tier of New York State (south of I-90) into the lower and mid-Hudson Valley, most of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms over western and Northern New York State as well as western New England.

As we saw yesterday, the potential for severe weather doesn’t always come to fruition. 

 The cold front will be moving over eastern New England Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing the chance for some badly needed rain, and maybe a few thunderstorms, due to the timing the severe chances will be very low.  

Next Week 

Behind the cold front, we’re going to see much more comfortable conditions.  Monday and Tuesday are looking to be mainly dry with much cooler temperatures and low humidity. Then Wednesday we’re going to have a weak disturbance move across southern Canada with a slow moving cold front approach and move through. This will bring back some heat and humidity along with the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. The unsettled pattern will stick around for Thursday and Friday, with the chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, this will be especially true for later Thursday and Friday.  Behind the front, cooler (seasonable) and comfortable humidity will move back in for the weekend.   

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1091

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1091
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic into southern New York and
   southwestern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111902Z - 112100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
   afternoon across the mid-Atlantic northward into southern New York
   and southwestern New England. Severe wind gusts and hail are
   possible with the strongest storms.

   DISCUSSION...Some deeper convective attempts are underway this
   afternoon across portions of the mid-Atlantic, particularly in
   southern New York as of 1900z. This development is occurring in a
   warm, unstable airmass with surface temperatures in the upper 80s
   and lower 90s F and MLCAPE values around 2000+ J/kg. The 18z
   ALB/Albany, NY sounding sampled the northern periphery of this
   airmass (along the CAPE gradient) with 0-6-km shear of 24 kts. This
   has supported some sporadic, more organized thunderstorm development
   recently.

   As the afternoon progresses, diurnal heating should support
   additional thunderstorm development across the region. Furthermore,
   a mid-level impulse in eastern OH -- influencing the ongoing
   convection in WW312 -- will continue moving eastward and should
   provide additional support for convective initiation and maturation.
   Bulk shear is expected to remain generally in the 15-25 kt range
   which, amidst forecast large MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg, will
   promote strong updrafts capable of producing wind gusts and hail.
   Uncertainty remains as to how much convection will develop and
   coalesce/strengthen in the short term, but trends will continue to
   be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

   ..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39937855 42097738 42657579 42777436 42337326 41237290
               40177310 37717495 37397648 37777765 38937842 39937855 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Mesoscale Discussion 1092

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1092
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   Areas affected...west-central Pennsylvania...western New
   York...western Maryland...and northern West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

   Valid 111948Z - 112145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across WW312,
   primarily across portions of southwestern Pennsylvania ahead of a
   more organized convective line.

   DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm complexes have developed across
   western NY and PA, eastern OH, and northern WV. Some damaging wind
   reports have occurred as a result, particularly with the convective
   line in southwestern PA. KPBZ sampled around 50 kts around 700 ft
   ARL as the line passed at 1900z. Although bulk shear will remain on
   the modest side (around 20 kts), it should be sufficient to maintain
   more organized thunderstorm complexes as they move eastward into a
   region of MLCAPE around 2000+ J/kg. The greatest short-term threat
   for severe wind gusts will be in southwestern PA ahead of the
   organized convective line.

   Strong thunderstorms have also formed in western NY along the
   northern periphery of the unstable airmass. Here, bulk shear is
   slightly more supportive of discrete rotating updrafts (as evidenced
   by some low-level rotation in the cells east of Buffalo, NY as of
   1945z) but buoyancy is more limited. A local wind and small hail
   threat could persist here with any sustained storm.

   Additional convection in the western portions of WW312 may also pose
   a short-term severe threat, but should be tempered by cold outflow
   (10-15 F deficits) in the wake of the leading convection.

   ..Flournoy.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   40987991 41597960 42317858 42967749 43157687 42737615
               41527733 40067830 39377929 39048002 38988052 39238081
               40318013 40987991 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Something tropical in the Atlantic Basin to talk about

 

Tropical Write UP

Energy that crossed over Mexico from Cristina is interacting with a tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula.  This is going to move over the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of days.  

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) in the Bay of Campeche are 83° F -84° F which is warm enough for tropical development.

Image curtesy of the National Climatic Data Center

Images curtesy of the NHC

But other parameters like moderate to high wind shear and dry air make for fairly unfavorable development conditions

Images curtesy of the University of Wisconsin

So, any development will be quite slow. The National Hurricane Center has given the system a 10% chance of forming within the next seven days. as it moves onshore the coast of Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. So, any window this has to become a named system is going to be very small and quite short.  But if it becomes a tropical storm, it will take the name “Arthur”.  Regardless of this becoming a tropical storm, it will likely be a gusty wind and rain maker which would lead to localized flooding as it moves ashore in Mexico. 

High level of heat and humidity continues

 Surface chart

We have a mesoscale convective vortex; all of this means a well-organized cluster of storms. This is bowing and heading east. This is associated with the cold front over the Midwest.

Radar

For us in the Northeast, we’re dealing with the trough Satellite is showing quite a bit of clouds over the region. These clouds are going to lessen, the more sunshine we see today the greater the risk for severe weather. 

Today is going to be another hot and humid day, with near record to record temperatures for some of us. Temperatures will be in the mid 80’s well into the 90’s. This will make for heat indexes in the mid-90’s into the triple digits This uncomfortable heat, means everyone must stay hydrated and if you’re going to be working outside you will need to take breaks. Also keep an eye on kids, the elderly, and your animals. heat advisories are up for parts of the region.

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent during the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms will become strong to severe.  The storms will be capable of locally damaging wind and hail. Storms would be capable of gusts of over 60 miles per hour; this could lead to downed trees, branches and power lines. With the high humidity torrential rain leading to the chance for isolated flooding and frequent lightning will also be an issue. Remember lightning is one of nature's biggest killers, so keep that in mind when storms are approaching. The risk for a tornado or two is also on the table. The Tri-State area is at the most risk for these possible tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe storms across southeast New York State and eastern Long Island, western Connecticut, eastern and southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey. With a Marginal Risk across western, Massachusetts, much of the rest of Connecticut, southern tier of New York State, and northern and northwest Pennsylvania.

Images curtesy of Storm Prediction Center

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather

Friday will be another very steamy day and will likely be the hottest day of this current event. But we will have an approaching cold front bringing downpours and thunderstorms. Friday will see a better chance for widespread severe storms across the region. The SPC has the whole area under a Slight Risk for severe weather as of right now over the Eastern half of New York State, a large part of New England and Pennsylvania as well as Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.

The Weekend

 Behind the cold front, it will be a little less hot or humid for the weekend, but it will still be quite warm with a touch lower amount of humidity.  High pressure will be building in allowing skies to become partly sunny on Saturday, and it looks to be mostly a dry day On Sunday, expect conditions.  Another cold front will approach from the Great Lakes Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, bringing back the chance for showers and thunderstorms later Sunday and Monday as it slides through.

 

Quick Post for today!

 

I have to be away today, but I wanted to make a quick post about today’s severe threat.

The surface chart shows low pressure moving north of the Great Lakes, with an attached warm front. On Radar we have thunderstorms approaching western New York State and rain showers over western Pennsylvania.

 .

Very warm air with increased humidity is driving northward behind the front. This summer time heat and humidity will set off scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Any storm that pops up will have the potential to produce damaging winds, hail and frequent lightning and torrential rain that could lead to localized flash flooding. The risk for an isolated tornado is very low, but it’s not zero

 

The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms