Hot...Hot....Hot.

The first half of September has been hot. After this little mid month cool down, temperatures will head back to above average.

I've noticed the main stream media and several in the climate science community, have thrown how hot September has been. Once again the Global Warming Crowd (GWC) is throwing out terms like record breaking,  unprecedented, and historic to describe the current late season summer. I didn't hear any of them talking about our cool July and August. I guess they didn't notice.

As most of you know, I'm not a believer  in the idea of humankind's greenhouse gas emissions are behind this idea of global warming. I've stated many times I believe patterns and cycles are why the weather on earth behaves like it does.  

Here is a blog post I did a few years ago on the subject. You can find it here.

My outlook for winter 2014-2015 was right on the money.  If you remember, I stated back in March, how the spring and much of summer would be cool in the Northeast. That was certainly the case. I forecasted that September would start well above average, cool down, and then warm right back up again.... over a month and a half ago. Again, that is what we are seeing. I've stated the current El Nino would weaken and become central based, as we got closer to winter into the first half of winter. The model are now showing my idea looks likely.

I posted my preliminary winter 2015-2016 outlook weeks ago. The warm September and the trend of the El Nino go hand in hand with the winter pattern outcome I outlined.

None of this is done with magic..... I've used pattern recognition.

I'm sure others see the same things I'm seeing.....but it seems that those who think everything we're seeing today is something brand new....get all the coverage.

I'm not saying I have all the answers....but I've just outlined a few examples of doing long range forecasting....and have it come to pass. I've been wrong sometimes, but I've been right much more than wrong.

Yes this September has been hot. But it is hardly record breaking.

Here is a chart showing how this September stacks up to past years in Central Park. 

 

Boston, Hartford, and Providence have seen warmer Septembers.

Boston's September record is 102 back in 1881. Hartford set a September temperature record of 101 back in 1953.  Providence set its record high of 101, back in the last September Northeast heat wave in 1983.

The Mid Atlantic has had a long stretch of 90+ days. But back in 1953 records show there was a September heat wave of 100+ for five consecutive days.  That was set at the old weather bureau office in Washington DC. The records taken at the old weather bureau most of the time aren't included in the official records used today.

This is only a small sampling of the records I looked at. If you want to research, you can find a lot of data at KNMI Climate Explorer.

Despite what the main stream media and human-made global warming groups want us to believe, all the evidence shows, the vast majority of the record highs were set at least 50 years ago. 

This shows the 1890's and 1930's were very hot decades. This was before large increase in CO2 levels.

  

Given the fact of the amount of urbanization and incredible growth of CO2 levels since 1960.  The lack of heat records does seem odd, if you believe in manmade global warming.

Per NOAA, 82% of all maximum records were initially set prior to 1960 and prior to the accelerated growth of human CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 levels.

The records show, through 2011, no maximum temperature records have been set since the 1990's. This is simply astounding since all the climate doomsday pundits have stated that recent global warming was "unprecedented" and that U.S. temperatures were rapidly increasing due to CO2 levels.

Based on the hysterical hype-ridden talk from mainstream media sources, one would naturally have expected to see new maximum temperature records set in recent years.

 

    

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)

This year, we have a very strong El Nino going on. In the northern hemisphere, Global SST temperatures have risen +0.042 deg C over July, June and August. The global SST have decreased in the southern hemisphere.

An interesting side note.....during the 1997 Super El Nino, no temperature records were broken in the U.S. If you think greenhouse gasses cause global warming...you would have expected to see thousands of record highs....instead there were none....anyway back to SST's

As was the case last year the north Pacific has seen the most warming. Many have nicknamed this area the "Blob"  The blob started in 2012. Before that there was no warming on whole for decades and decades.

Note all of these charts were put together by Bob Tisdale

Here is the SST anomaly chart for the north Pacific. The chart covers the satellite era from 1981 to 2014.

 

According to NOAA   the north Pacific covers about 21% of surface area for global oceans...(an area bigger than Asia, Europe, and North America). starting from 2013 you can see the unusual spike in SST. prior to 2013 there had been no warming for almost two and half decades. The NOAA link is here.

 

What is amazing is that during those two and a half decades of no warming...greenhouse gasses were running amok......It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see something not involving greenhouse gasses is going on.

 

shows no real warming.....

 

when you add 2013 and 2014 you see a spike. A spike that looks like a very strong El Nino......what....don't we have a strong El Nino going on?  Why Yes We Do...could that be a coincidence? I think not.

 

Here is one more chart...it shows what the climate models say should be happening verses what the actual data shows.

 

You can see the models used by climate scientists doubles the SST from that is actually occurring. Clearly the data being input is faulty. This just shows how unreliable climate models truly are.

 

In conclusion, I've shown how this September warmth is not at record levels nor all that unusual. I've also shown how greenhouse gas emotions can't be the cause of global warming nor ocean warming.

The things that drive climate and weather on the planet Earth are the Sun and the Oceans. El Nino and La Nina are a major factor in warming and cooling across the northern hemisphere. Oceans are behind the rise in temperatures...look how much just the north Pacific has impacted SST and air temperatures.          

Winter 2015 2016 preliminary outlook

Here is a look at my preliminary winter 2015-2016 outlook, My final outlook will be posted in 4 to 6 weeks.

This will be based on Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). The final one will include SST but it will have other factors involved as well.

The last few years I've released my preliminary thoughts for the upcoming winter around this time.  But this year, I've tried something new; I also posted how things looked to be shaping up over the Summer and how those would impact the coming winter.

Before I start talking about the winter...I want to look at how the summer turned out.

Temperature wise the northeast saw a slightly below average to average Summer.  The precipitation pattern has been active, but still ended up being below average.

Here are a few charts I made up to show how the current setup matches what we've seen this summer. 

  

Above is taking the analog years and put them into a chart. The chart shows the average temperature pattern we should have see this summer.

 



Above is shows how the last 90 days shaped up in the temperature department. You can see that it matches up well to what the analog years said should happen.

If you've followed my Facebook weather pages...you know I've been saying for about two months, that September would start out warm, then cool off around mid month, then heat back up for the end of September into the first part of October. Here are a few charts that show the models agreeing with my thoughts. 

 Above shows the cool down for mid month..

 

 



Above is showing how we warm up to above average temperatures for the last half of September into the first part of October.... After that I do think we will see things cool off a bit for the rest of October into November....before we warm up again for December.

The above images show how the precipitation has shaped up so far this Summer.

The reason I've showed the last 90 days, is to give you confidence that this analog approach to doing long range forecasting is a very good tool.

Ok what about the upcoming winter?:

My Analog years:

1919-1920, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1991-1992, 2009-2010, and last winter 2014-2015.

ENSO El Nino:

As most of you know, we have a strong El Nino right now.

An El Nino winter tends to be milder, than a weak El Nino or a La Nina. But Like I've posted before, the PDO, AMO, AO, and the NAO also have a lot of influence on our climate up here in the Northeast. Below I will post images of our current El Nino and how our current pattern compares to winter 2014 - 2015.

But first, I've been saying for the entire summer, that the current El Nino was going to shift west later this fall into the winter. This is now starting to happen. Here is the Current El Nino, I've also place a chart showing the El Nino regions.

Here is what the El Nino looked like last month.

And here is July

You can see the SST off the West Coast of South America are cooler than they were a month ago. The warmer water is a little farther west.


Here is last years SST setup.

I've marked five areas that have a major influence on our temperature patterns.  The sea temperatures in these areas are the reason last winter was so cold.

1) Warm SST in the Gulf of Alaska. This correlates to a ridge out west and a trough over the East.  

2) Warm SST off the West Coast and the Baja. This also correlates to cold in the Northeast.

3) When we see cooler SST's northwest of Hawaii, we often have colder air in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic.

4)  A weak El Nino Modoki also means it's typically cold on the East Coast.

5) Cold SST's in the North Atlantic around Greenland, is a good sign for cold in Eastern Canada and the Eastern U.S.

Here is the current setup.  I've marked the same five areas.

You can see area 1 has extended farther west.

Area 2 is much warmer and also has extended west.

Area 3 is still cold but the warmth to the east has eroded it's over all size a little.

Area 5 is still cold.

The biggest change is area 4.

The warm El Nino will have an impact on our winter of 2015-2016.

A cool La Nina or a weak central based Modoki is typically a cool sign in the Northeast. Last winter we had a neutral ENSO or a weak Modoki El Nino. This effected the Jet Stream. it helped setup the ridge out west and the persistent trough over the East. It also allowed the southern sub tropical jet to move further north....which helped the northern and southern jets to phase.  This is why New England saw all the snow.

The warm El Nino is going to effect our fall into winter. As I said the current El Nino is starting to shift west. I do expect this to continue into the first part of winter, I also expect the El Nino to be weakening late fall into winter. . The question is how far west and will the El Nino weaken?



Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):

The PDO involves the warm SST in the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest.  Here is a chart that shows the typical impact of the PDO warm and cool phases. 

Here is how the years with a strong El Nino, stacked up to the years that had a weak El Nino.

 

1997-1998 was a super El Nino.  The winter of 1997 - 1998 was extremely warm in the Northeast. But 2015 -2016 has a different set up.....

The big differences are the warm waters around Greenland, the warm waters northwest of Hawaii. and the PDO had a much weaker warm phase.

So while the strong El Nino is hinting at a warm winter, the PDO is saying the exact opposite.  The El Nino will have a big impact, but of the two, the PDO will have a bigger impact.

 As we head into fall.  I've already shown how September looks to be warm.  I think we will see things cool off a little for October and November. But we will warm back up for December.

Using the current factors here is how December looks to be

When I factored in the Analog years......here is how things look to unfold this winter January into March.....

February is looking to be very cold.

Here is how the precipitation outlook looks to unfold....if things trend the way I think they well.

So right now this is how it looks to be this winter.

Heading into winter October and November will seasonally cool. Then we will see a big warm up for December.

Winter will start out mild. But then things look to get cold for January, February, and the first part of March.

Temperatures look to be below average for the southern tier of New York State (south of the Mohawk Valley), Southern New England, Pennsylvania, and the Mid Atlantic. With Northern New York and the Rest of New England seeing average to slightly below average temperatures. 

The indications are that around the Great Lakes through Southern Pennsylvania and into the Mid Atlantic would see lots of snow.... amounts of  40% to 50% above average are looking possible. Northern Pennsylvania and New York State south of the Adirondacks would see average to 25% above average....Northern New York and northern New England look to be around average........

Here are some rough maps showing what I've just said.

Snowfall outlook

Precipitation outlook

Well that's about it.  What I've shown here is now things look at this time... I will modify all of this when I issue my final outlook sometime in October.