Spring 2019 outlook for the Northeast.

When making long-term forecasts, we have to look at global patterns such as those of persistent jet streams and El Nino. (El Nino—warmer-than-average eastern tropical Pacific ocean temps.), Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). Weather signals are easier to read when El Nino temperature anomalies are more extreme, because I can base my outlook on historical El Nino activity. But , Right now, we are in a weak El Nino. So things are more difficult.

 For Spring 2019:

Analogs:

The analogs I've chosen are: 1969, 1987, 2007,1995,1914,1973,1997,1961,1978,  2015. These are based on the SST, ENSO and other factors that deal with the upper level air pattern.

The analog years of 1969,  1987, 2007 are important.... These years experienced late-developing El Nino events, similar to what we had this winter. 1914 was a match on six key parameters, with 1961, 1973 and 1997 tied for second.  Of all the years 2015 is the closest match to global SST at the current time. I've placed extra weight on 2007, 2015.

These analogs, will also play a big part in the hurricane outlook that will be issued later down the line.

 Teleconnections:

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in Phase 4 than it looks to head into the Null (circle of death) phase. While in the Null phase the MJO will stop being a major factor in our weather, allowing other teleconnections to exert more influence. The MJO will stay in the Null phase for the middle of next week. Then as the MJO should enter phase 1 for a brief time leading to below average temperatures for the 17th to the end of March, maybe into the first week of April. Then we should be able to put winter 2018-2019 behind us going into the rest of April and May.
 

 With the pattern remaining active with a strong Pacific Jet, we will have to be on the looking out for possible wintry tricks.  Could we see one or two moderate to major winter storms before we close out March? Yes it is possible, but doubtful. But we very well could see several  light to moderate winter events by the end of the month. This time of year with the higher sun angle and warming temperatures timing has to be perfect for big winter events. I do think the models are under doing the extent of the cold for the 2nd half of March.

The  Southern Oscillation Index (SOI):

 The SOI has surged more negative. As of this writing it is at -6.51. This should help push some of that warm water in the western Pacific into ENSO region 3.0. Which should help strengthen the El Nino.

 

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):

The ENSO has been quite weak for the last few months. But, the ENSO has strengthened in the last 10 to 14 days. I do think the current El Nino will extend beyond Summer.

 

The SST:

The SST's along the Southern and Eastern Coast are very warm.

 

The Verdict:

Temperature:

Those warm SST along the Mid Atlantic and New England Coast, will have a part to play in overall temperatures. But the Great Lakes still do have a lot of ice on them. This and the snowpack in New York State and New England will help to moderate the effects of the warmer SST off the Coast.

March should end-up on average 2-4 degrees F, below average for the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Temperatures for April won't be near as cold, ending up a little below average overall over Northern New York and Northern New England around -1 degrees below average.  The rest of the New York State into Southern New England should see average to slightly above average overall temperatures.  Pennsylvania (especially Southeast Pennsylvania) into the Mid Atlantic could end up as much as +2 to +3 above average.  May should see overall temperatures average to slightly above average.  May should see temperature anomalies over Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic  0 to +2 degrees F, above average. New York State and New England could end up below average 0 to -2 below the average.  Temperatures for Spring (March, April, May) 2019 overall  should end up -1 to perhaps -2 degrees F, below average for most of the region.  I also expect these lower than average temperatures to extend into Southeast and Atlantic Canada. There is the risk that temperatures could end up being cooler than the analog years indicate.  

 

precipitation:

Long range precipitation possibilities, are much harder to quantify than long range temperature.

As I said above, I don't think we're completely done with wintry weather. There is a shot at a storm around the 19th of March. But P-type for the rest of March will depend on the timing of the shortwave disturbances.  Over the next three maybe four weeks we should see us adding to the existing seasonal snow totals.  But unless you live in northern New York or northern New England your odds of seeing all or mostly all snow events are quite low. The farther south you go the greater your odds of seeing more in the way of all rain.

Looking at the entire picture of our pattern along with my feel for this pattern; I think this Spring will be wetter than the analogs indicate. This is a big risk on my part, but it is what I think. Based on this, April and May could be quite wet.

March through May for most of Upstate New York State, Vermont, New Hampshire, and the Northern into Central Maine will see  overall precipitation slightly above average … 0 to +0.5. with the rest of the region seeing average precipitation.  New York State into Vermont and maybe Northwest Massachusetts and far Northern Maine precipitation anomalies of 0 to -0.5 look about right.  For Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic precipitation will be above average +1 to +2. For the entire region,  I don't anticipate any large scale drought issues.    

 

My thoughts for the US severe/tornado season for Spring into Summer 2019:

When we look at the tornado statistic from 1995 to 1918 we come up with an average of 1,154 tornadoes annually in the United States.  That's a lot, right around 75% of tornadoes around the world every year.  When we look at the analog years; we can get an idea of the possible tornado season for the US in 2019.

1914 there is no way that I can show any kind of accurate tornado count. But there were some very destructive and deadly tornadoes from Pennsylvania into New England in 1914. One interesting tidbit, the 1914 hurricane season was the least active on record.

1961 saw a total of 697 tornadoes.  The 1961 Atlantic hurricane season featured the highest number of major hurricanes.

1969 saw a total of 608 tornadoes.

1973 saw a total of 1102 tornadoes.

1978 was very inactive, with 595 tornadoes reported.

1987, was well below average with 656 reported tornadoes.

 1997 was slightly below average,  reported tornadoes were 1,148. This year saw some violent tornadoes, one of which was the Jarrell, TX F5.

2015 was the only analog that had above average activity with 1,178 tornadoes reported.

Based on these analogs, the 2019 severe/tornado season across the CONUS, should be below average, but higher than last year's count. Most likely slightly below mean average.  May could be quite active; then things should quiet down for June...July could go either way. But my guess is below average activity. A few of these analogs saw quite a bit of tornado activity in the Northeast. So we could see more activity this year than normal. Last year saw a lot of tornado activity in New England. If I'm right about the overall pattern this year could see above average tornado activity over Pennsylvania into the Mid Atlantic.

This covers my thoughts on how Spring 2019 for the Northeast into the Northern Mid Atlantic will turn out. There are many factors I didn't get into, they would have made this far too long, but I've been covering most of these factors off and on  with post on my Facebook weather pages.

I will be happy to answer any questions or respond to any comments Y'all care to make.  


 

Images courtesy of Australian  Bureau of Meteorology, WeatherBell Analytics, and NWS/NOAA .