Laura and
Marco are generating a lot of attention; not only about their development and
track; but also, about what could happen to Laura and Marco if they meet and
merge?
The press
has been talking about it, many times not correctly. Social Media is flooded
with talk about them becoming a giant hurricane, which is not true. It’s true
there have never been two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time; there is a
good reason for this and that has to do with the size of the Gulf and available
energy. While the Gulf of Mexico is very large, it’s small when talking about
oceans. The gulf is about 930 miles wide. So, two hurricanes would have to stay
well away from each other (like on opposite ends of the Gulf) If they were
closer, they might compete for energy resources and kill off one or both of
them. Being that far west or east would make for a lot of land interaction,
which would be very detrimental for a hurricane to survive. While Marco’s and
Laura’s tracks overlap in the Gulf possibly making landfall within miles and
around 24-48 hours of each other, this doesn’t mean a super hurricane is going
to happen.
As far back
as the record goes, there hasn’t been two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at
the same time. But that doesn’t mean there haven’t been two tropical cyclones
in the Gulf at the same time. In early September of 1933, two hurricanes were
tracking toward the U.S. -- one dubbed the 1933 Cuba-Brownsville Hurricane
(Hurricane 8) in the Gulf of Mexico headed toward Texas and the other
(Hurricane 11) near the Bahamas, the Treasure Coast Hurricane, tracking toward
the east coast of Florida. On Sept. 4, the Treasure Coast Hurricane made
landfall as a Category 3 near the border of Palm Beach and Martin counties in
Florida at the same time, the Cuba–Brownsville hurricane was slowly tracking
toward Texas. Here is an old U.S. Weather Bureau weather map that shows this
(courtesy of Philip Klotzbach). The storms made landfall within 24 hours of
each other, But the Treasure Coast Hurricane weakened to a tropical storm over
Florida before entering the Gulf. The other time was on June 18, 1959, during a
brief time there were two tropical storms spinning over the Gulf
simultaneously. One was Tropical Storm Beulah, the other was a newly formed
tropical storm that would later develop into Hurricane Three.
Anyway, back
to 2020, the year of the strange and unexpected….
Here is my
latest answer on the idea of these two merging….
Laura and
Marco won't as you say merge and combine forces to form a single larger and
more powerful storm.
There are
three scenarios that occur when tropical cyclones get close to each other. By close
I mean within 190 miles of each other. That spacing will be hard to do in the
Gulf, given it’s about 930 miles wide. But that be as it may.
The first
scenario is, if they are around the same strength, and if Laura and Marco come
in close enough proximity, they will dance and rotate counterclockwise around a
common midpoint, otherwise known as the Fujiwhara effect. I covered the
Fujiwhara Effect a couple of weeks ago during Friday weather school.
The second
scenario is, if you have two hurricanes of the same relative strength in close
proximity, then their respective sinking air can weaken both storms
simultaneously.
The third
scenario is, if one tropical cyclone is significantly stronger than the other
tropical cyclone, then the weaker of the two can rotate into the stronger storm
and weaken even more as it does so. The larger tropical cyclone absorbs the
leftover moisture from its dying counterpart, though this absorption could make the parent larger, it does not
make the larger parent storm any stronger.
So if any of
y’all are thinking Category 6 out of some kind of collision, don’t hold your
breath.
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