The Caribbean...

Still watching the southwestern and central Caribbean.

We will likely see a tropical depression or even a tropical storm form by this weekend or early next week The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the 7-day development odds up to 50%. But I looking at the overall setup, the odds are undoubtedly higher than that.

We’ve been watching this area for awhile now, but the high wind shear has kept a lid on things. But the wind shear is going to weaken in much of the Caribbean next week. The SST are well above average 85 to 88 degrees, with a lot of pockets of deep ocean heat content. There looks to be plenty of moisture. So, this will make for a very supportive environment.

 It remains to be seen, if drier air over the Gulf could get involved with the overall setup.  Right now, pass mid next week, something could try and slip into the Gulf. But windshear over the Gulf could become an issue for any tropical cyclone trying to develop.

There will be a couple other areas to watch, one near Puerto Rico and the other west of the Azores. 

The next name on the list is Patty.

Right now, nothing to worry about, just something to watch.

Happy Halloween!

 

Today is going to be super warm, with temperatures well above average. On the surface chart we see the high-pressure overhead, providing most of us with this sunny weather. But there some of y’all seeing some cloudiness. We can also see that strong frontal boundary approaching. This is the same system that brought all that severe weather to the plains yesterday. But the conditions over the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region, are much less conducive for severe weather, but we will see some wind and rain as it moves through.

The winds are fairly calm this morning, but they will increase as the day goes on, becoming 20-30 mph later this afternoon and tonight. There could be some rain showers and maybe some thunder over western parts of the region this evening, but the bulk of the rain should move in after sunset, say around 8-9 pm for western NYS into northwest PA and 11pm to midnight for most of the rest of western PA. So, most of the trick-or-treaters should stay dry. Outside of the wind the rest of the region should stay dry during the time the ghost and Goblins are doing their thing. With rain moving across New York State and Pennsylvania, after Midnight during the overnight. The rain will make it into New England late tonight into tomorrow morning, with clearing developing by the afternoon. But there still could be a few lingering showers over eastern Maine during the afternoon.

 Behind the front we will turn much cooler, with temperatures becoming seasonal for Friday and the Weekend, it will also be breezy.

We turn much cooler and more seasonable for the end of the week with a chilly breeze, and a few lingering showers on Friday. As, high pressure builds in starting Saturday. Making Sunday the chilliest day of the Weekend. Monday the high pressure starts to push to the east, as a warm front lifts back into the region. Temperatures will warm, but nothing like the increasable warmth we saw yesterday and today. Monday into Tuesday rain will advance southwest to north east across the region. Then on Wednesday a cold front will move through, bringing scattered to isolated rain showers, then high pressure looks to build back in for Thursday.

Drought…

As has been the case over the last several weeks, the bulk of this rain associated with the front will be centered over the Great Lakes into Southeastern Canada. So, the farther south you are the less rain you can expect. Which is bad news for the rainfall deficits.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is showing 1% of the Northeast in exceptional drought, 4% in extreme drought, 7% in severe drought, 18% in moderate drought, and 35% as abnormally dry compared to 1%, 4%, 5%, 14%, and 38%, respectively, last week. I wouldn’t expect any meaningful rain, for the foreseeable future. So these dry and drought conditions will continue and likely worsen.

 

Summer is back!!!

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

The Surface maps show a warm front lifted through the region with strong high pressure providing an upper-level ridge over the region. We have a strong southwest flow providing very mild but breezy conditions, radar shows the vast majority of the region is rain free under sunny skies. Tomorrow will likely be even warmer. Today and tomorrow will see high temperatures challenge or even break record highs, as the air will be well above average for this time of year.

Tonight, should be mild as well. Tomorrow should stay dry but still be breezy. But an approaching strong cold front will bring the chance for scattered rain showers for western parts of the region Halloween evening/night. The rain will advance west to east during the overnight into Friday morning, rain should end over Maine by Friday afternoon.  With the front winds will continue to be breezy, with much cooler air filtering into the region.

High pressure will build into the region on Friday and over the weekend, providing dry conditions with temperatures near seasonal, with Sunday being the chiller of the two days, so overall the weekend won’t be all that bad.

On Monday high pressure will start to exit east, as a warm front approaches. With the front we can expect to see some scattered rain showers, with rain showers lingering into Tuesday. Temperatures will become milder for the beginning of the work week, but we will have a cold front approaching and moving through on Wednesday. This will bring cooler temperatures and a chance for isolated to scattered showers.

 The region needs rain with rainfall deficits running high in many parts of the region. Unfortunately, no really substantial rain is in the forecast over the next week to ten days. So, the ongoing drought will likely continue to get worse and spread.

 

The Atlantic is going to wake back up and will we see a pattern change over the East Coast?

 

After a surge of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin end of September and the first part of October; the tropical Atlantic is quite right now, but as I’ve been saying that could be changing. So, we will have to keep an eye on the Caribbean end of this week into next week.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. It covers the entire Atlantic Basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

So far, we’ve seen 15 named storms. 10 of these become hurricanes, with 4 of them considered major. The National Weather Service defines a tropical cyclone as a hurricane when maximum sustained winds become 74 mph or higher. A hurricane is considered major when maximum sustained winds become 111 mph or higher. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index currently is approximately 148.6. ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during its lifetime, the higher the number the more powerful the impact. The total number of each storms ACE index is added together to determine the total season ACE total. So, the season has been active as a whole. 

My 2024 hurricane outlook, so far, has done very well.  Back in May I called for 17-25 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, 4-8 major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy of 150 – 210.

There were those who said mine and other outlets was going to be a big bust, when the Atlantic went to sleep August into early September. Then we saw a surge of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin end of September and the first part of October; the tropical Atlantic is quite right now, but as I’ve been saying that could be changing. So, we will have to keep an eye on the Caribbean end of this week into next week. If tropical activity does make a come back, my outlook should fall well with-in the parameters I set. 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 7 which is an unfavorable phase in the Atlantic, resulting in downward motion over the Atlantic. But the MJO is rotating toward phase 8, phase 1, then phase 2. These phases are more supportive for tropical cyclone development, as we end up with rising motion over the Atlantic.  We should be in phases 8 and 1 end of this week into at least the middle of November. So, we could end up seeing at least one system develop during that time. I wouldn’t be surprised if we ended up with 2 or 3 tropical systems during that three-week period.

On the JMA CHI200 yellow generally means sinking air, blue generally means rising air, off white is neutral. What you look for areas of development is between the blue and yellow.  

The most likely areas to see increased chances for tropical activity will be the GOM, Caribbean and Southwest Atlantic off the Southeast Coast.

  

Pattern change is coming, but it will take a little while.

Along with the MJO and other Pacific teleconnections. The Atlantic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are positive now, which promotes general ridging here in the east. But as we get into the 2^nd half of November we should see these become neutral to negative. For those who don’t like the warm weather, this is a sign that the end of November could turn markedly colder. This would line up with what I said in part 1 of the winter outlook.   

 

We need rain...But nothing meaningful is looking likely anytime soon!

 

Today's Northeast weather discussion…

The Surface maps show high pressure is starting to move to the east, with a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley. It also shows a stationary frontal boundary over the region. Rain showers associated with the warm front will start to move into western parts of the region by this afternoon. With the high starting to push east, a southern flow will develop, which will allow for a breeze and warmer temperatures to move into the region.  The rain showers will move west to east into tonight. Those in New England should see some rain tonight.

Tonight is going to be mild.  The rain will be pushing away from New England by tomorrow morning. A southwesterly flow will mean temperatures will be even warmer, with the warming trend going into Halloween Thursday.  Both Wednesday and Thursday will see high temperature records challenged or even surpassed. Both days should be dry.

 A strong cold front will approach Thursday, ahead of the front rain showers and most likely some thunderstorms will break out. The rain will likely reach western parts of the region very late afternoon and evening. The rest of the region should stay dry for trick or treaters for the evening.  The rain will continue to push east during Thursday night into Friday morning. Rain could be locally heavy at times. But as the front moves through there will only be a window of 2 to 3 hours for rain west to east. So meaningful rain, will be hard to come by. Rain should be ending across Maine during Friday morning.

Behind the front skies will clear, with temperatures becoming seasonal, with a bit of a breeze. The weekend and through Monday are looking to be generally dry. But there could be some lake effect rain showers downwind of the Big Lakes. Tuesday will see a warm front approach and push through bringing a chance for some rain showers, with warm temperatures moving back into the region.

As for the Caribbean, there is no change in the overall thinking of something trying to spin up. The NHC still has the 7-day development odds at 40%.

Remember, Daylight Saving Time will end this weekend. So that means we have to set the clocks back one hour before going to bed Saturday night.

Quick post on the Caribbean

 

As I said in the last tropical post, the SSTs are very warm, more than warm enough for something to spin up.  The most likely spot for something to try and form will be east of Panama.  From here it could drift and meander for a few days, as high pressure over the East Coast blocks it into the Caribbean. Dry air and windshear will likely be an issue at least early on. So, any development that tries to get going would be slow. The models are showing support for something to form, some are more bullish than others. The wind shear over the Caribbean is strong now. The question is will this weaken?  Until something forms, there isn’t really anything else to say.  

The National Hurricane Center has the development probability odds at 40% over the next seven days.

 

Welcome to Monday

 

The surface chart shows high pressure overhead, providing a cool start under sunny skies. We do have a weak frontal boundary hanging out over New York State into Southern New England. The day will be dry with temperatures warming by the afternoon.  

We’re going to have a ridge build in providing warming temperatures, as a warm front lifts through the region. There could be a few hit and miss rain showers for Tuesday into Wednesday, but most shouldn’t see them.  By Wednesday temperatures will be well above average for this time of year.

For Halloween Thursday the warmth continues, with many places away from the coast, challenging temperature records.

A cold front is forecast to move through west to east Thursday evening into Friday morning. Those western parts of the region could see some rain showers in time for trick or treating. Everyone else should stay dry during the evening. The front with the rain will be pushing through New England during the overnight hours. This will bring us a chance for scattered rain showers during the overnight hours into Friday morning skies will be clearing behind the front with rain ending over New England by Friday afternoon.

The coming weekend will see high pressure moving in overhead. The high pressure will be with us through Monday providing sun, seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures and dry conditions.

Patty are you there?

 

In the last few posts, I’ve been talking about the possibility of a tropical storm or hurricane forming in the Caribbean.  There is model support for the idea of something forming in the southwestern Caribbean around Halloween into next weekend.  We’re going to see the return of a broad area of general low-pressure form, this is called a Central American Gyre; this feature has appeared earlier, and helped create Tropical Storm Nadine and before that hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are still a very warm 86°F to 88 °F, with pockets of deep ocean heat content where warm water extends hundreds of feet under the surface. The SST in the Caribbean are still near-record high. For now, wind shear on the other hand is high. So, anything that tries to spin up will have to deal with that. So, development would likely be slow. But wind shear looks to become more favorable down the road. So, we will see! 

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the development odds at 30% over the next 7 days.

Nothing to worry about right now, just something to keep an eye on!

The next name on the list is Patty.

We’re not done with warm weather yet!

 

Todays Northeast weather discussion…

That long stretch of well above average temperatures, spoilt many of us. The cold frontal passage brought some rain and even a few thunderstorms, but the rain wasn’t all that much, and didn’t do anything for the drought conditions plaguing parts of the region.  Behind the cold front that came through we seen the days start cool, but then we warm up during the afternoon.  

Today is going to be dry. But a weak cold front approaching will bring the chance for light rain showers into western parts of the region this evening. This front is moisture starved so it won’t have a lot to work with when it comes through. The front will come through Saturday into Sunday. Winds will be breezy with the frontal passage. There will be a chance isolated rain showers and high elevation snow showers for Saturday into Sunday. The rain could be a bit more substantial across northern New York State and northern New England, as these areas will be closer to the low pressure. Those downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will be dealing with scattered lake effect rain/snow showers. This lake effect shouldn’t be too heavy, more of a nuance than anything.

High pressure will build in for Sunday allowing for sunshine. Most of Sunday should be dry. This dry stretch looks to last into Thursday. Next week the high pressure will start to drift east, a warm front will bring a strong southern flow that will bring a return of very warm temperatures for Tuesday into Thursday. Nights into early mornings will be quite cool, so there will be frost issues. Then we will see another weak cold front approach for Halloween Thursday. Depending on timing, this could set off some rain showers across western parts of our region for Halloween, along with cooler temperatures. The front would continue to move through on Friday, bringing the risk for isolated to widely scattered showers.

We’re not done with above average temperatures I expect the first half of November to be overall seasonally warm.

The Drought

 In spite of the wet summer. The region needs the rain, many parts of the region haven’t seen a lot of rain since the end of August. So, rainfall deficits, some of these deficits are over 10 inches; leading to a large swarf of moderate, severe and even extreme drought.

This week

Last Week

The U.S. Drought Monitor Map released yesterday, shows extreme drought in the southwestern corner of the Northeast. Severe drought expanded in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. Moderate drought increased in coverage in areas closer to the coast from Maryland up to Maine. Abnormal dryness expanded in Maine, New Hampshire, Maryland, and West Virginia.

The map shows 1% of the Northeast in exceptional drought, 4% in extreme drought, 7% in severe drought, 18% in moderate drought, and 35% as abnormally dry compared to 1%, 4%, 5%, 14%, and 38%, respectively, last week 

Tropical Atlantic.

The Atlantic is quiet right now, but we will have to keep an eye on the Caribbean for the middle to end of next week. Conditions look to be favorable, so we will see!

The 2024 and 2025 Northeast Winter Outlook Part One

 

Meteorological winter is just around the corner, officially beginning Sunday, December 1st. So, it’s time to start talking about what may be. The season will have ups and downs, alternating between warm and cold. At times we could see a few bouts of bitterly cold air. There will be a chance for a few significant snow events as well.

What is a seasonal outlook?

A seasonal outlook is different from short and medium range forecast. Instead, it tries to predict the overall pattern when it comes to temperature and precipitation pattern that could occur during the entire season. It attempts to place some light on the three possible outcomes, above average, average, and below average.  A seasonal outlook deals with the overall global climate pattern that looks to be prevalent.  It is more of an overall snapshot of what to expect, instead of the a more accurate shorter-term forecast.

The 2024-2025 winter outlook will be divided into two parts. Part one will be based on early analysis. If I see more interest or the pattern looks to make a big change, I would issue a part three.

 

Okay, let’s take a look at how things might unfold.

 

Sea Surface Temperatures:

 

Last October

 

This October.

 

Comparing last October to this October we can see some difference and a lot of things that look similar.

In the Pacific we can see warm SST in the northwestern Pacific, with more cooling in the northeast Pacific.  The SST in the equatorial Pacific look much different than last year. Last October we had an El Nino that was transitioning to ENSO neutral. This year we’re transitioning from ENSO neutral to what looks like a La Nina. The current SST anomalies in the western Atlantic are even warmer than last Octobers’.

 

 Teleconnections:

 

The Atlantic Oscillation (AO)…

The AO deals with the strength of the Polar Vortex (PV) and determines whether or not there will be a supply of Arctic air available to fuel winter weather. I will explain more about the PV when I discuss the current snow cover. A positive AO indicates that the PV will be strong and Arctic air will have a greater chance of cold arctic air staying locked up near the pole while a negative AO indicates the potential for a weaker PV leading to a greater chance for arctic air to escape southward. The AO can flip phases on a weekly basis.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)…

The NAO, in its negative state, indicates high-latitude blocking over Greenland. This lingering area of high pressure causes the flow to stagnate. The storm track is often underneath it and can result in persistent storminess for the Eastern US. On the contrary, a positive NAO has no such block and the storm track moves quickly across the CONUS and out into the Atlantic. Like the AO, the NAO can switch Phases often.

Can the eastern US still get winter weather with a positive NAO? Yes, but they’re often quick-hitters and rarely significant events.

 

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)…

 The PDO deals with sea surface temperature anomalies over the Northern Pacific (north of 20° north latitude), as with all teleconnections it has a positive and negative phase. These phases typically last for decades. The PDO represents the oceans response to the atmosphere.  In this way it is a prime driver for low pressure systems in the north Pacific, for example the Aleutian low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. Depending on how strong this low is, it will have a different impact on wind flow, and the pressure gradient. If the Aleutian Low is very strong, we tend to see a stronger southernly flow along the immediate West Coast.

The positive phase is characterized by cool SSTs north of Hawaii and warmer than average SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast of North America. The negative phase we see the opposite, warmer than average SSTs north of Hawaii and cooler than average SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast of North America.

During the positive phase the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is more likely to experience overall below average temperatures for December, January and February. During the negative phase the opposite is true, with the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast likely to experience overall above average temperatures for December, January and February.

 

Pacific North American Pattern (PNA)…

The PNA involves the flow pattern over the Northeast Pacific. As a result, it is a major player in the weather pattern over North America. The PNA is very variable, changing between positive and negative every few weeks.

 

The PDO and the PNA are closely linked to each other…

 

There is a direct correlation link between the PDO and the PNA. During the winter the correlation is greater than 0.80.

 

The PNA is closely related to the strength of the Aleutian Low and the strength of the PDO

 

The PNA for our purposes here, is the PNA is the main driver of the trough ridge pattern over North America

 

During a negative PNA there typically is more overall upper level troughing over the western U.S leading to cooler and wetter conditions, while the eastern U.S. is more likely to see overall ridging leading to drier and warmer conditions. During a positive PNA the eastern U.S. sees more in the way of troughing while the western U.S. sees more in the way of ridging.  

 

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)…

The QBO is another prime teleconnection driver of climate. The QBO deals with stratospheric winds. The negative phase leads to the winds blowing in an easterly direction, with the positive phase having winds in the westerly direction. The QBO is a major driver of the strength of the Polar Vortex. When the QBO is positive the polar vortex tends to be stronger overall. A negative QBO tends to see a higher likelihood of a weaker polar vortex.

  

EL Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)...

The ENSO involves Sea Surface Temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific. It has a warm phase called El Nino, a cool phase called La Nina, when neither is in place, the ENSO is considered neutral.

Like I said above last winter was an El Nino, typically that means cooler temperature anomalies for southern half of the U.S. with a warmer temperature anomaly over the northern tier. Precipitation during a El Nino typically sees the northern tier anomalies drier in the northern tier, and wetter in the southern tier.  During La Nina we see the opposite occur with temperature and precipitation anomalies.

The temperature and precipitation correlation anomalies during La Nina can be seen in these two graphics.

 

 

 

Physical Sciences Laboratory

 

 

Physical Sciences Laboratory

 

We’re in the process of transitioning from El Nino to La Nina

 

La Nina:

 

A La Nina would affect the weather this winter in the US, he said. The north may experience colder-than-average conditions while it would be warmer to the south.

This La Nina should be weak to moderate, but a weak one is much more likely.

 

Weak La-Nina’s tend to be fickle with a lot of variability. So, teleconnections like the MJO, PNA, NAO and AO will play a huge role in how things play out week to week as we go through the winter season.

 

The call for a colder wetter winter is based on a La Nina forming out West and impacting the jet stream

I expect the northern polar jet will be very variable, with the southern subtropical jet being weaker.  This would generally correlate to seeing wetter anomalies in the north and drier anomalies in the south.

 

Models:

 

National Multi Model Ensemble (NMME)

Precipitation

 

November – January

 

 

January - March

 

 

Temperature

 

Nov to Jan

 

Some possible analogue winters:

Weak La Nina years

1950-1951, 1954-1955, 1964-1965, 1967-1968, 1971-1972, 1974-1975, 2000-2001, 2005-2006, 2008-2009, 2016,2017, 20017-2018, 2022-2023

 

Closest match for Weak La Nina years

2016-2017

 

ENSO Neutral Winters

2017-2018

2022-2023

 

Primary storm track:

Storm tracks will be a result of a weak La Nina and strong influence from the NAO and AO.  The pattern setting up supports the idea of

Clippers

Lake Cutters

Appalachian runners

Inland runners (Miller B nor’easters) that transfer to the coast.

The classic Miller A nor’easter will be very hard to come by.

 

Putting it all together:

Based on the current look of the teleconnection and the analogue package I’m using for now.

With the Idea of the polar jet stream being amplified and the subtropical jet being weaker; we will have a pattern that could support a strong ridge in the west that would increase the odds of polar air masses into the eastern U.S.

Much of the winter will be driven by the slowly developing weak La Nina and a positive QBO. This would mean they will fight each other at times during the upcoming winter.

A positive QBO will tend to decrease the odds for high latitude blocking, which means we will see stretches of zonal (west to east) flow. This combination would lead to a higher likelihood of less cold air outbreaks during the winter. So, while polar air entering the pattern is there, arctic outbreaks might be more difficult to happen.

Based on this we could see winter start out a little more hard-hitting during the 2nd half of November. With the heart of winter being variable. Then Spring arriving a bit sooner than we’ve seen the last few years.   

 

I’m going to break the region into zones. I think this will make it easier to understand what I’m generally expecting. This will be biased on the 30-year average.

.

Zone one…

Those of y’all in zone one, will see overall slightly below average temperatures during December to end of February. As far as general precipitation it should end up being wetter than average. With the cooler temperatures snowfall should end up slightly above average to above average as well. I expect those near the Great Lakes will experience several lake effect snow events. So, the typical snowbelts should end up with overall above average to well above average snowfall for the season.

This doesn’t mean there won’t be warm periods. As I said above, La Nina tends to bring highly variable conditions so every storm will depend on how the pendulum is sitting.   

Winter while not the old fashion winters from decades pass, it shouldn’t be all that bad.

Zone two…

This zone looks to see overall near average temperatures, along with average general precipitation. There will be an issue with mix events during the winter. As far as snowfall that looks to be overall average to slightly above average.

Winter will end up being a bit of a roller coaster, but there should be some snow events.

 

Zone three…

This zone looks to see overall average temperatures to slightly above average, along with average general precipitation. There will be an issue with mix events during the winter. So, expect to see many events start out as a mix then switch over to snow, or starting out as snow and changing to a mix. But there will be a chance for pure snow events.  As far as snowfall that looks to be overall average to slightly below average.

Winter will end up being very hit and miss.

 

Zone four…

This zone looks to see overall Temperatures above average with precipitation near average.  Snowfall accumulations will be below to well below average, when everything is said and done. Unless a storm tracks just right, I don’t except to see much in the way of snow. some of your storms will be a mix. But generally, many of them could be all-rain events. It is possible some places in zone four, won’t see any snow this winter.

Winter will end up being lack-luster

 

That very warm Atlantic..

Above I mentioned the super warm SST in the North Atlantic. As I’ve said before, there is no doubt that the oceans and atmosphere are becoming warmer. This is impacting weather patterns and storm tracks.  The warm water temperatures mean more water is evaporating, while the warmer air temperatures mean the atmosphere can hold more water vapor.  

I have to try and factor this idea into my outlook. As the ocean/atmosphere dynamics will lead to a greater chance for above average amounts of heat. This won’t only effect storm tracks it could also impact storm intensity.

Over the summer, the entire Northeast saw the effects of this idea; there were several very significant rain events, that lead to major flooding. This idea will likely impact winter storms, with more available moisture for storms to drop snow on parts of the region.

Coastal storms like nor’easters strengthen over warm ocean waters. The interaction of the warm water and colder polar/arctic air can create monster storms. A La Nina pattern impacts the jet stream, which reduces the odds for coastal nor’easters. But depending on what the other teleconnections are doing at the time. Those warm waters could produce a massive storm.

So northern parts of the region should see some cold and snow, while the Middle Atlantic and I-95 could see a warmer winter and maybe little in the way of snow. It will depend on how the AO and NAO behave. The last few winters have had many setups that resulted in close calls with snowstorms, but one thing or another didn’t line up, leading to storms being suppressed to the south and east, resulting in a lack of real winter weather.  

Well, that’s it for part one.

 

I hope you found this interesting and educational. As always, I can’t answer questions about the outlooks from other outlets. But I will always answer all y’all’s questions in regards to my outlooks and forecast.

Link to part two.

.

The party is over, at least for now!

 Todays Northeast weather discussion…

 

The high pressure that has brought all the beautiful weather, is starting to exit stage right; as a cold front approaches the region out of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The front will bring rain showers and cooler temperatures.

Clouds will be increasing west to east across the region, with scattered rain showers moving into our western areas this evening. More in the way of widespread scattered rain will be closer to the Canadian Border as the low pressure will be moving across southern Canada into the Saint Lawrence Valley; the farther south you are the more in the way of isolated rain showers you will see. Winds ahead of the front will become breezy.

The front will be a quick mover, so the rain will be pushing away during the overnight into tomorrow. The rain should end over eastern New England tomorrow morning. Behind the front winds will become northernly which will bring in much cooler air to the region. The rain that is coming won’t be near enough to reverse the drought conditions parts of our region are experiencing.

Tomorrow afternoon into next mid-week skies will be mostly sunny and mostly dry. Friday night into Saturday morning another cold front will push through, most of us will stay dry, but this will bring the chance for a few rain/snow showers. Those in far northern New York State Vermont, New Hampshire and especially northern Maine will have a better chance of seeing the rain and higher elevation snow showers. Friday into Wednesday will see seasonal to seasonally cool. The high pressure should keep the bulk of the region dry during that time. Later Wednesday we will see the high pressure start to give way to another frontal system, approaching from the west.  This system will move through late Wednesday and Thursday, bring back the chance for rain and snow showers.

The Tropical Atlantic...

What's left of Oscar is heading away from the U.S. East Coast toward Bermuda and then Atlantic Canada late Thursday/Thursday night. He will bring strong winds of around 40 to near 60 mph ( 60-90 km/hr.) and a lot of rain to parts of Newfoundland. There will be a risk for localized flooding. Currently the rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet. This should last for the next 7 to 10 days. But then the Atlantic Basin should wake back up as we get near Halloween into the first half of November. As I said the other day, I still think Patty is out there.