05/29/2025

 Here's a look at current conditions.

Looking at the surface chart We can see high pressure up over northern new England giving way to low pressure off the coast in an approaching system from the south and west.

The infrared satellite image shows the system developing over the Tennessee valley.

Today is going to be cool. Radar shows the steady widespread rain is up over New England back into New York State. As this low pressure off the coast continues to live north and east. The rain is going to lessen and become much more isolated To the south and west across the region. A few isolated thunderstorms and rumbles thunder will also be possible today as all this work its way through. Those with the greatest chance of hearing any thunder will be in eastern New York State and especially New England.

During today and tomorrow the system in the Tennessee valley Is going to continue to develop and end up taking over the pattern. As this moves north and east towards our region. We're going to see rain increase.Rain looks to make it into southwest Pennsylvania including Pittsburgh late morning early afternoon on Friday. With rain spreading east during the day. We're going to see this develop into yet another Nor'easter. This will bring widespread rain and breezy conditions to the region Later Friday into the weekend. 

By later Friday We're going to see energy transfer from the primary to another area of developing low pressure over Virginia. The low pressure over Virginia will continue to develop and track north and east towards towards New England. 

Tomorrow rain will develop in southwest Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, and Delaware during the afternoon into the evening. Rain will reach Southwest Massachusetts and Boston Friday night.  Then move into Maine later Friday night into the overnight. Rain should be widespread for Friday night and Saturday. Rain will be heavy at times. General rainfall amounts of half an inch to an inch and a half are likely but there could be localized higher amounts. Unlike the last Nor'easter this one is going to be fairly progressive, meaning it will be a fast mover. Rain should become much more isolated south to north as the day goes on. Sunday will see the Nor'easter lifting out, leaving lingering rain showers across New York State and New England. Monday we'll see high pressure approach and move in. This will end any lingering rain west to east across the region. For Tuesday the area high pressure remains in control providing tranquil conditions and warming temperatures. On Wednesday the high pressure will start to scoot east but we'll still be dry with temperatures continuing to become a bit milder. Thursday a warm front is going to slide through the region, expect scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Once we get into next week the overall pattern is going to Slowly become warmer and dryer with much more sun. 

Tropical

The Atlantic hurricane season starts in 3 days.

While the Atlantic hurricane season hasn't started quite yet. The eastern pacific hurricane season started a couple weeks ago There is currently a tropical depression Just west of Mexico That should become Alvin later today.

In the Atlantic basin, we do have a tropical wave that is moving into the Caribbean. As this continues to work its way west It's going to bring increased rain into the islands of the Caribbean and across northern South America. There are also a couple of very Disorganized Tropical waves to the east across the Atlantic.

Image credit University of Wisconsin Madison.

Looking at the Saharan dust layer (SAL) image. We can see there is quite a bit of dust in the Caribbean and it's  moving into the Gulf of America. There is also a large plume working it's way across the Atlantic. The wind shear chart shows strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic as well as the Caribbean into the Gulf of America.

Given that there's a lot of Saharan dust and dry air all over the Atlantic. (As many of us know Saharan dust and dry air inhibits tropical development. There is also quite a bit of wind shear over the Atlantic. Strong wind Shear is also a factor that's repressive for tropical development.) it looks like, the Atlantic hurricane season is going to get off to a slow start. I don't expect to see any real development of these tropical waves for at least the next couple weeks.