The National
Hurricane Center (NHC), is making some changes to the way it handles tropical
systems. These changes to their products
and services, will be implemented on an experimental basis for the 2024
hurricane season. This stems from the need to better inform the public on the
potential multiple impacts that a tropical cyclone may deliver. The changes
are…
(2 Watches and Warnings on Intermediate
Advisories
(3 Extension of Tropical Storm Wind Radius
Forecast
(4 Website Links in Advisories
(5 Forecast Cone with Inland Watches and
Warnings
(7 New marine forecast for offshore
waters
(8 Change to the Time zone Reference in the Eastern Pacific
Spanish Text Products…
The National
Hurricane Center will expand information provided in Spanish to include:
All public
advisories.
The tropical
cyclone discussion.
The tropical
cyclone update.
Key
messages.
The NHC will
be using AI to generate the Spanish-language documents.
Watches
and Warnings on Intermediate Advisories…
The NHC said
watches and warnings could now be adjusted more frequently and not during the
set times of 5 A.M., 11 A.M., 5 P.M., and 11 P.M. when the full advisory
packages are typically issued.
This change
will allow for flexibility when issuing tropical storm, hurricane and storm
surge watches and warnings and more current and valid watches and warnings to
be posted more frequently.
Extension
of Tropical Storm Wind Radius Forecast…
The National
Hurricane Center currently issues tropical storm wind radius forecasts out
three days.
Starting in
2024, those forecasts will extend out five days.
Website
Links in Advisories…
The public
advisory for the 2024 hurricane season will include links that provide
"graphical hazard information."
The links
are "intended to help reduce the length of the Tropical Cyclone Public
Advisory ... and to direct the focus to the most significant and impactful
storm surge and rainfall hazards and areas," the NHC said.
Forecast
Cone with Inland Watches and Warnings…
The NHC will
be making changes to its cone of uncertainty, adding watches and warnings for
interior areas starting around Aug. 15, 2024. Previously, watches and warnings were
issued only for coastal areas.
With this
experimental product, both coastal and inland watches and warnings will be
shown with the forecast cone to illustrate that storm hazards can extend beyond
the inside of a forecast cone.
Here is an
example of the experimental version of the cone graphic.
The National
Hurricane Center warns that since this is an experimental product, it may not
be available at the same time that the current cone of uncertainty graphic is
released but it should appear within 30 minutes of the advisory release.
Rainfall
Graphics…
An
experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America will be
available in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
The graphic
will provide forecast rainfall totals for tropical cyclones or disturbances for
a particular time period.
New marine forecast for offshore waters…
This change starts ahead of hurricane season
The current
offshore waters forecast for the southwest and tropical north Atlantic will be
divided into two forecasts starting March 26, 2024.
The new
offshore waters forecast will consist of:
Offshore
waters forecast for Southwest North Atlantic Ocean: Consists of all the
Atlantic zones currently north of 19N.
Offshore
waters forecast for the Caribbean Sea and Tropical North Atlantic: Consists of
the remaining zones in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic waters south of 19N.
Change to
the Time zone Reference in the Eastern Pacific…
This won’t affect
us here in the Northeast.
Most of
Mexico no longer observes Daylight Saving
Time,
therefore Central Standard and Mountain Standard time will be used in lieu of
Daylight
Saving Time
within those two time zones. Since Daylight Time is used within portions of
Baja
California
and the southwestern United States, Pacific Daylight Time will continue to be
used
within that
time zone when Daylight Saving Time is observed. The time zone of reference in
NHC tropical
cyclone products is based on the initial position of the tropical cyclone at
the
advisory
issuance time, except for the caveat noted below. The time zone that appears in
eastern
Pacific tropical cyclone products will be determined by the initial longitude
of the tropical
cyclone as
follows:
Central
Standard Time: longitude at advisory time is east of 106.0W.
Mountain
Standard Time: longitude at advisory time is between 106.0W to 114.9W.
During
Daylight Saving Time, Pacific Daylight Time: when the longitude at advisory
time is
west of
115.0W. Otherwise, Pacific Standard Time will be used. Please note that this
guidance
applies to tropical cyclones that may affect Southern California.
CAVEAT: If
the final forecast point for a tropical cyclone in the Tropical Cyclone
Forecast/Advisory
(TCM) is west of 140W, the advisory will use Hawaii Standard Time.
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ReplyDeleteCentral Standard Time: longitude at advisory time is east of 106.0W.
Mountain Standard Time: longitude at advisory time is between 106.0W to 114.9W.
During Daylight Saving Time, Pacific Daylight Time: when the longitude at advisory time is
west of 115.0W. Otherwise, Pacific Standard Time will be used. Please note that this
guidance applies to tropical cyclones that may affect Southern California.
CAVEAT: If the final forecast point for a tropical cyclone in the Tropical Cyclone
Forecast/Advisory (TCM) is west of 140W, the advisory will use Hawaii Standard Time.