Tuesday, March 5, 2024

2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook part one

Hard to believe, but hurricane season is less than 100 days away. So, it’s time to start talking about the Tropics. Based on data from 1991 to 2020, an average season typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.  Before we get into the 2024 season, let’s take a quick look at the 2023 Atlantic season.

A look back at the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season...

Part one

Part two

Part three

In 2023 the tropical Pacific experienced El Nino. Typically, El Nino suppresses tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin, due to increased atmospheric stability and increased vertical wind shear.  But last season, in spite of it being a strong El Nino; The season was very active. In fact, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season ranks 4th for most-named storms in a year. Looking at the numbers, there were 20 named storms (including an unnamed subtropical storm that formed on January 16), seven of which were hurricanes, three of them became major hurricanes (Cat 3+), and the season had an overall Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 146. In total there were 3 landfalling tropical cyclones on the U.S. main land. The numbers show 2023 saw the most named storms in the Atlantic basin of any El Nino influenced year in the official record. Another thing that is generally true with El Nino impact on the Atlantic tropical season, is that the upper-level wind pattern is more supportive of storms recurving north before they reach the U.S.

When I released part three of the hurricane outlook back in May, my final numbers were 14-20 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes. The CONUS would see 2-4 landfalls with one of them possibility being major. The ACE would be 100-150. So, my outlook ended up as close to perfect as you can get.

I did a post on why the season was so active, you can find it here.  

OK let start talking about the 2024 tropical season in the Atlantic…

My outlooks are based on yearly weather patterns. During the preseason, I look at that overall pattern and how major teleconnections and things like Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) will play into all of that.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts on June 1st.



Teleconnections…

EL Nino is fading, and looks to be quickly replaced by La Nina

 


La Nina, increases the odds for tropical cyclones. Because there is generally increased atmospheric instability and decreased vertical wind shear. Also, since La Nina has by and large the opposite El Nino impact on the Atlantic tropical season, so tropical systems have a greater chance to come farther west, into the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.

 

SST Anomalies…

 


 


The SSTs in the Atlantic Main Development Region (the area where most of the hurricane’s form) between the West Coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles are well above average.

 Right now, SSTs in the North Atlantic Basin are running 2°F above the 1990-2020 average, and around 3°F above the average SST back in the 1980’s.

Here is a chart make by Brian McNoldy (University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, Senior Research Associate) that shows just how dramatic these temperatures are.

 


This warm water provides developing tropical cyclones the fuel they need to develop and become more intense.

General thoughts for the 2024 season…

 

The combination of La Nina and well above average SST means, 2024 has a good chance to be as active or even more active than 2023 was.

The current trend of the La Nina, looks to be in place for June and July. If this happens, the middle and end of this hurricane season could be very active, maybe even hyperactive.

When we look at the projected Atlantic rainfall anomalies, we see where the highest anomalies (the green swath) are located, pointing into the Caribbean and along the Southeast Coast. While this doesn’t show tropical cyclones, it does show where thunderstorms are more likely to form and track. With all that warm water, La Nina potentially lowering wind shear, this would make sense. As it would support hurricane development in this part of the Atlantic.





Hot Spots…

Based on the pattern that looks to be setting up, these are the areas I think are at the greatest risk of seeing a landfalling tropical cyclone this season.




The models are generally pointing to the Caribbean, the eastern and central Gulf Coast and along the Southeast Coast. So, hurricane impacts are particularly concerning for these two areas.  

That doesn’t mean the Middle Atlantic and Northeast can relax this season. The areas away from these hot spots are at a lesser risk, but that risk isn’t zero.  New England is long overdue for a hurricane impact. Last season New England dodged a couple of bullets. With the odds favoring tropical cyclones making it farther west this season, New England has a better shot at seeing a direct impact.  

The official list of tropical cyclone names in the Atlantic basin for 2024 includes…

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valeria, William.

Final Thoughts…

This is the time to get prepared for the upcoming hurricane season, develop a plan for you and your family that will keep you safe, also make sure that a hurricane kit is ready to go, just in case.

It’s too early to try and figure out the possible numbers of hurricanes this season. So that detail will be covered over the next couple of months.

This is an early outlook that is calling for an above average active hurricane season, due to the record warm SST in the tropical Atlantic and El Nino likely switching to La Nina at the peak of season. But if La Nina doesn’t form or takes longer to develop that could change things.  Still, plenty of time to watch how things trend and evolve.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) will release NOAAs seasonal hurricane outlook around May 23rd. Other major weather outlets will be releasing outlooks during April into May.

I will release part two sometime in April and then part three in May.

I will also be releasing a post on several changes the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be issuing for the 2024 season.







   

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