Milton is gone...what happens next?

Today in the Northeast U.S. it is Sunny with seasonal temperatures winds are gusty with gust of 20-30 mph possible. We do have a weak cold front dropping through. Tonight, thru tomorrow rain will track northwest to southeast.  The air coming in is going to be well below average. So northern parts of New York State and New England will see mixed precipitation with the higher elevations seeing some wet snow. The highest elevations of New York State, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, could end up with a few inches. Next week is going to be very cool and blustery. Monday is looking wet, with scattered rain/snow showers hanging around for Tuesday and Wednesday.

This front is going to continue to drop south during the upcoming week, making it all the way into Florida. This dip in the Jet Stream, will keep any tropical systems out of the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic north of the Main Development Region. The Atlantic Basin has been incredibly busy the last couple of weeks, so this is a welcome reprieve. Speaking of the tropics…

Tropical Write Up

The season started out very busy then we had a 3-week break, after that the Atlantic got very busy again. So far there have been five landfalling hurricanes on the US mainland.

Leslie

Post Tropical Storm Leslie is in the open center Atlantic, with sustained winds of 50 mph and a central pressure of 1000mb, she is racing northeast at 31 mph. she might pass close to the Azores.

A Tropical Disturbance dubbed Invest 94L is in the Eastern Atlantic. The conditions for development are favorable so this could become a tropical depression in a few days. The National Hurricane Center is giving this 2 day and 7 day develop odds of 30%.  This is generally tracking west, and could be near the Lesser Antilles end of next week. The pattern over the US should keep anything away from the CONUS for the next 7 to day days. But this is still something to keep an eye on.  

There is a chance we could see something try and form later next week in the southwest Caribbean. The GFS model is the most bullish on this developing, with the other models less so. Again, this is something to keep an eye on. If anything does develop it would likely become an issue for Central America.

 Image Credit Wikipedia 

 

This has been a strange hurricane season. The overall number of tropical cyclones this year have been slightly above average. But the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes have been well above average. As of now, there have been 13 total storms, with 9 of then becoming hurricanes, and 4 of them becoming major hurricanes.  There is still 7 weeks left in the season, with the SST in the Atlantic Basin (especially in the Main Development Region) being exceptionally warm there is still a chance for more late season activity. This will depend on how favorable the atmospheric conditions remain. The official hurricane season ends on November 30^th, but it is possible we could see tropical disturbances develop past that date.