Post Thanksgiving

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

How did my forecast work out for your area? 

Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving despite the messy storm that went through. That storm has pulled away, and if you’re not downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, conditions are seasonable cold, with temperatures running 10-15 degrees below average for this time of year. But other than nuisance isolated snow showers and rain showers, it’s not bad. But for those downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, it’s a completely different story.  Radar shows the lake bands off the lakes due to west-to-west southwest winds, moving over the warmer water, is producing a heavy band off of Lake Erie and another heavy band off of Lake Ontario. Snowfall rates of 2to 4 inches per hour will produce upwards of 3-5 feet of snow under the most persistent bands for the Tug Hill Plateau and the snowbelt south of Buffalo.  

Lake Effect Snow Warnings are in effect off of Lake Erie for Southern Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. Off of Lake Ontario Lake Effect Snow Warnings are in effect for Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego, and St. Lawrence counties. These warnings off of both lakes will last through Monday.

For Sunday night and Monday, a trough will work through, this will cause a wind shift that will move the snow bands south and east of the lakes, these areas will be dealing with accumulating snows.

The region will be dealing with breezy winds right through the weekend.

The first half of next week should be mainly dry but cold. Then for Wednesday and Thursday a clipper system will approach and move through bringing rain and snow showers.

As I’ve been saying, waves of cold are going to be an issue for at least the next 10-14 days. This is going to ensure below average temperatures. With the pattern staying active and the setup favoring clipper systems, there will be additional chances for snow as we move forward.

 

Drought Conditions.

U.S. Drought Monitor

Per the Northeast Regional Climate Center…“The region received some needed precipitation this week. West Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania saw enough improvement in soil moisture and streamflows for one-category improvements, eliminating extreme drought. Maryland also saw improvements this week. Elsewhere, the precipitation was enough to pause conditions from deteriorating but not enough to improve conditions. The U.S. Drought Monitor released on November 27 showed 4% of the Northeast in extreme drought, 24% in severe drought, 33% in moderate drought, and 36% as abnormally dry compared to 6%, 25%, 31%, and 35%, respectively, last week”.