Snow is coming

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion.

The surface/radar charts, show weak high-pressure overhead, with a few showers over northeast New England from the storm off the Coast.  We can also see that developing storm in the West.

We’re going to have a warm front lifting through, other than a few showers, many of us should stay mainly dry into Wednesday. We’re going to see mild air move back in ahead of the storm to the West.

We have high latitude blocking over eastern Canada and Greenland. This is going to allow the storm in the Plains, to move toward the Great Lakes, where it will deepen, and then it will be forced to move south and east toward the Middle Atlantic for later Wednesday and Friday. Friday into Saturday this looks to become a Nor’easter as in moves north and east around the block. Cold air will wrap in behind the low pressure, bringing colder temperatures into the region for Wednesday night into Friday.

This is going to bring much needed rain to the region.  Later Wednesday rain will likely break out over western areas, this rain will work its way east during the Wednesday night and Thursday. As I said yesterday, a general 0.50 to 1.25 of an inch is likely with higher amounts possible.

Cold air wrapping in behind the storm will change rain over a mix/snow in the Appalachians and higher elevations of Northeast Pennsylvania and New York State on Thursday. The change over to higher elevation snow will start in western and northern New England Thursday night into Friday.  As the Nor’easter develops, it is going to drag in even colder air, this will likely lead to moderate to perhaps heavy snow in the higher elevations across the Poconos, Catskills, the hills south of the Mohawk Valley as well as part of the Tug Hill and Adirondacks, northwest CT western MA, and Greens in Vermont along with the higher elevations of New Hampshire and Maine.  It’s too early for specifics but these areas have a chance of seeing 2-5 inches, with the higher peeks seeing perhaps 12 inches, maybe with locally higher amounts possible. But who sees what will depend on how cold it gets and the exact track of the storm. As air cools it will be possible for a mix and maybe some flakes in the lower elevations and valleys.

The cold air is going to hang around for the weekend, with the cold air moving over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, lake effect snow is likely to set up, east and south east of the big Lakes. The temperature profile doesn’t look robust enough for a significant event, but limited lake effect should bring at least a few inches for those downwind of the lakes in the typical snowbelts.

Thursday thru Sunday is going to be breezy. With the cold air, rain/snow showers will be possible over the Weekend.

Next week is looking chilly and blustery.