We need rain badly!

 Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

The surface chart and radar show, low pressure up over Maine and Southeast Canada; outside of some leftover lake effect rain and snow showers, most of the rain is out of here.

Behind the front, we have high pressure building in from Canada, providing northwesterly gusty winds driving in very chilly air.  Tonight, will see winds lessen, into tomorrow morning will be downright cold for this time of year. These below average temperatures will be even chillier tomorrow.  Tomorrow night into Thursday morning will see the coldest temperatures so far this season.

Thursday Will see low pressure moving into the Great Lakes, there will be an ocean storm out in the Atlantic along with strong high pressure in Canada acting as a block; so, this low will transfer to the south, taking most of the rain with it. So other than cloudy skies, any rain will be hit and miss for most of us. Those with the best chance of seeing more in the way of rain will be in western Pennsylvania into part of western New York State.

By Friday, the inland low will continue to drop south, due to that ocean storm. High pressure will be building in, this will keep most of us dry and bring sunshine and warmer temperatures, winds will be a bit breezy which will make air temperatures feel a bit chillier. There is a chance parts of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware see some rain, which is badly needed. But most of the rain will be from the Delmarva and points south.  Saturday into the first part of Sunday will experience seasonal temperatures. It looks like that ocean storm near Atlantic Canada, will try and backup maybe bringing some rain into New England (rain has a chance to make it into NYC), with a chance for mixed precipitation over parts of northern New England. The rest of us should see dry conditions. Most of Sunday should be dry with high pressure overhead, then a clipper like system will move into the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday, this will bring a chance for rain. Rain amounts don’t look to be all that much.  Tuesday high pressure builds in and sets up overhead, providing another stretch of dry conditions.

With the near term looking fairly dry with more in the way of breezy winds, the wild fire danger is very high, so don’t light any fires outside.

 

The tropics.

The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day development odds at 40% and 80%. With very favorable conditions ahead; there is a good chance that by this weekend into early next week we will have hurricane Sara to deal with.

This is heading slowly to the west toward the Yucatán Peninsula. It’s looking likely the system is going to lose a lot of the steering currents so it will likely end up meandering in the western Caribbean for a few days, with the deep ocean heat content, there is a chance this could become another November major hurricane.

The odds of this trying to take more of a northernly track next week, means this could come into the Gulf and possibly even Florida. So, everyone needs to keep an eye on soon to be Sara.