Could some drought relief be in the cards?

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

Surface chart and radar show the ocean storm moving in from the east, along with the storm that was suppressed south off the Coast of Virginia and North Carolina. We also have high pressure building in out of Canada.  Radar shows the rain has moved off the Middle Atlantic Coast, with some rain pushing into northeast Maine. The air is very dry, so the radar has more bark than bite, as much of this isn’t reaching the ground.

Today will be warmer, with breezy conditions, the highest gusty will be over Maine were gust of 30 to 40 mph will be possible at times. Most of the rest of New England could see 20-30 mph gust with New York State, Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic region seeing gust of 10-25 mph.

Tonight, will be cool, but likely won’t be as chilly as the last couple of nights. Saturday will start out a bit chilly, but temperatures will recover by the afternoon with seasonal to slightly above average highs. That ocean storm will be lurking off the coast, so there is a chance for isolated showers for eastern New England, this will be especially true for Maine into Northeast Massachusetts.  The rest of the region should stay dry. Sunday will have high pressure overhead providing more sun and even milder temperatures with well above average highs. We will be watching a frontal system approach from the north and west.  New England will likely be dealing with some coastal flooding today and tomorrow during high tides from the ocean storm.

By Sunday evening isolated rain showers will be possible over New York State into Pennsylvania. These will move south and east Sunday night and Monday, we can expect scattered rain showers, but the front will be moisture starved, so rain amounts should be fairly light. Tuesday will see high pressure back in charge, providing seasonally mild temperatures with dry conditions.  Wednesday will see the mild conditions continue, the high pressure will start to push east, as an area of  strong low pressure moves into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rain could break out over parts of Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic by Wednesday evening.  For Thursday the low in the Great Lakes looks to deepen as a front lift into our region. Cold air will be wrapping around the low into the region. This system brings the best shot of meaningful rain to the region, especially if some tropical moisture can be pulled into the region. we could be talking 0.50 to 1.0 inches of rain for a large part of the region.  I’ve been talking about the possibility of some snow for parts of New York State and Pennsylvania for the last few days. There could also be measurable lake snows downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The could could hang around for several days. There is still time for things to change, so I will know more as we get closer.

Remember due to the long stretch of dry weather, breezy conditions, and lower humidity the wild fire danger is very high.  

 

Tropical Storm Sara

 

Max sustained winds are 50 mph, min central pressure is 997mb, The National Hurricane Center has this moving west at 5 mph.  Sara is likely to hang just off the coast of Honduras for a couple of days. The odds that she reaches hurricane strength is lower than they were.  As the approaching front grabs, her, she will be pulled over the Yucatan where she will weaken and very likely dissipate. What’s left of her, could make it into the Gulf of Mexico. The steering currents would have her move toward Florida. It remains to be seen if she will be able to strengthen a bit over the GOM, but the most likely outcome will be she will be a remnant by the time she reaches Southern Florida, bringing heavy rain, and a chance for tornadoes.

Have a great weekend.