Rain is looking more and more likely for the 2nd half of the week

 

Northeast weather discussion for this week…

Today is seeing mild conditions and much less winds. We do have a cold front approaching that will move through the region tomorrow. The front is moisture starved, so it won’t bring a lot of rain, but scattered to isolated rain showers can be expected Monday, especially for New York State and New England. South and east of there the rain chances look to be widely isolated.  bringing us scattered rain showers. Winds will be breezy with the front.

Thursday through Saturday.

A system will come into the Pacific, as this moves east it will become cut off, as a jet streak forms on the southern side of the system. The system will dig in and rapidly deepen as it moves toward the Midwest, by the time it reaches the Great Lakes it will be very strong.  This looks to be widespread rain event, where 0.50-1.0 inches could fall.  The storm will bring about Dynamic cooling as it creates its own cold air.  With the cold air there could be some snow/mix for parts of northern New England, New York State, into Pennsylvania. There could be heavy snow in the Appalachians and lake effect snow downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The weekend will be cool and breezy as the storm pulls away on Saturday.

Tropical discussion

Tropical Storm Sara did stall, as a result she drenched the northern coast of Honduras, where up to 40 inches of rain fell in some areas. She has now started moving again, she is moving west-northwest at around 5 mph.

Tropical Storm Sara’s center is close to the Coast of Belize; once she moves across Belize she will track into Guatemala, and then across Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Once inland she is going to quickly weaken then dissipate tonight or Monday over the southern Yucatan, or in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. From here, a front will steer her remnants towards the northern east Gulf Coast or the central Florida Coast, her remnants are going to bring rain and some wind Wednesday. There will also be the risk for some tornadoes.

 

The official end of Hurricane Season 2024 is in sight.

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30^th.

While a can’t say there won’t be anymore tropical disturbances after Sara dies; the odds do get lower. While the SST in the Gulf are generally below the tropical formation threshold of 80°F. The SST in the Caribbean are 84°F to 85°F. it will take other factors besides just warm water, but warm water is a key ingredient. So, it is possible we could see a rouge tropical cyclone form during the rest of November or even in the off-season during December.