The Northeast is not done with cold and snow!

 

This is going to be a long post and how I think we're generally gonna stay cold right through march. I know many  of y'all are tired of all the cold and the snow we've seen so far. Like  what  Punxsutawney Phil said, we're not done with winter by a long shot!

Yesterday and today have been very cold. Between the air temperature and the wind chills this has been the coldest stretch we have seen during the winter. I doubt temperatures are going to get quite this cold during the rest of the winter. But I still think overall the rest of the winter will end up generally below average as far as temperatures go. Later in the post I will go into some reasons why I think this is the case. I've been saying this for a long time and regardless of those who disagree with me I haven't changed my mind.

A quick look at the rest of this week!

As I said this weekend has been extremely cold. Tomorrow we'll start out very cold and then temperatures are going to moderate slightly. We are going to see Milder temperatures during the coming week but they still will likely be slightly below average for  this time of year. But after these bone chilling cold days and nights It might feel quite balmy.

We are going to see a weak wave moves through around midweek. That could produce some light snow and wintery precipitation across parts of the region. And then Friday  into Valentine's weekend. We will have to be on the lookout for possibly a bigger event that could bring some snow and mixed precipitation to the region.

Here is a look at the persistent pattern we've experienced over the winter of 2025-2026.

Current 500MB pattern

The trough that's going to be digging into the West Coast Is going to change the pattern we've seen for big part of this winter. This winter has seen a lot of persistent troughing over the Eastern US. As the trough builds into the west, we are going to see the ridging work its way east and move over the East Coast around the 14th to the 18th or so. We could see fairly milder temperatures here in our region during that time. But I don't think it's going to last (I will touch more on this later in the post); I think the trough thats going to be out over the Atlantic is going to try to push back east into our region;  which will cool us back off As we move past the 20th.  After that brief warm up I do think that for the rest of February into at least mid March, we are  going to see overall temperatures that are slightly too moderately below average.

As that trough builds over the western US; It will likely force the storm tracks south, where we are  gonna see storms coming in off the Pacific, working there way over the Southwest US and then move east across the southern states. With this setup there is a much better chance than we see some of these storms  work the way back up north and east, tracking into the Great Lakes or along the Appalachians and moving over parts of the Northeast  or move up the Coast. The pattern could lead to some severe weather outbreaks in parts of the Plains and across the southern US. But it would also increase the odds of storms for the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. With the cold air still looking to persist at least in my opinion. We would have increased chances for more snowstorms as we move through the end of February and into March. We can still see a surprise major storm impacting our region moving forward.

Around the end of February there are some storm signals that show a possible storm impacting at least part of the region.

February and March 2014 analogues

Top three analogues going forward.

As I 've said, 2014 was the top performing analogue for this winter. When we look to the current teleconnections, the upper level pattern that looks to be developing and things like the polar vortex 2014 is still predominant. But two other analogues are also good matches. Those analogue years are 2009 and 2018.

The winter of 2008-2009 also saw a weak La Nina develop late in 2008. This La Nina went into the winter. Then dissipated and became neutral during the March to May time frame in 2009. The winter of 2017 and 2018 also saw a weak La Nina develop. This also formed towards the end of 2017 and became neutral during the first half of 2018. 2009 and 2018 also saw El Nino developed during the summer of those years. Both of these years saw significant snowstorms here in the Northeast.

When we make a composite for these analogue years we get the following

February through March analogues

Spring temperature correlation with the three top analogs

We still have plenty of cold in the pattern and I think we're still going to be able to tap into that over the next several weeks. The pattern does support the idea for more cold during the rest of this winter. That doesn't mean there won't be warm periods with milder temperatures. As I've been saying for quite some time We are going to see warmer temperatures move in for the February 15th to the 20th time frame. But also as I've been saying the deep snow pack and all the ice on the Great Lakes is going to keep us from getting super warm, so it will not be a torch. Instead we are going to see temperatures slightly above average during that time.  But we're going to see more cold outbreaks. I have no doubt about that.

So with the idea of us still having a chance for more cold weather and the storm track favoring phasing between the northern and southern jets and a favorite snow track possibly for our region. I'm still counting on some snowstorms.

La Nina

La Nina continues to rapidly weaken. In fact when we look at the data. We are already in neutral conditions. 

The trade winds have switched and they are driving warmer water eastward.  The waters east of the dateline are not only warming at the surface there's also a deep pool of warm water that is developing. There is no doubt that as we move into spring the la Nina is going to become neutral. When this happens it will continue to lose it's influence on the pattern. What were seeing is undoubtedly leading to the development of a El Nino. If El Nino forms it very well could occur during the summer into the fall of 2026. It's too early to talk about the strength of a possible El Nino. But we could start to feel its effects During the summer. If we do end up with an El Nino It very well could have a big impact on the 2026 hurricane season. El Nino typically increases wind shear over the Atlantic basin; which could help inhibit tropical cyclone development. This could reduce the overall number of hurricanes this coming season. With the possible development of El Nino It would likely last through winter 2026-2027. This would make for a very different pattern than we saw for this winter. El Nino's typically see low pressure in the eastern Pacific with the northern jet further to the north. This can make El Nino winter here in the Northeast milder and less snowy. But the northern Middle Atlantic can fair quite well as far as snow The storm pattern typically sets up so that from the central Appalachians down into the Delmarvia Peninsula can see quite a bit of snow.

Even though the Climate prediction center hasn't officially declared ENSO neutral yet. As I just stated above, we are no longer in a La Nina background state. As we get into the end of this month We will probably start to see more of that neutral influence in the patten, with the southern sub tropical jet becoming more active allowing more Gulf moisture into the pattern and with the Northeast remaining colder. Which is typical for neutral ENSO conditions. We will have more opportunities for snowstorms, possibly big storms, towards the end of February and through a large part of March.

The madden Julian oscillation

Looking at the diagram We can see currently the MJO is on the border phase 1 and the null phase (center circle) . Then it looks to move into phase 2 then phase 3

During the winter Phases 8, 1 and 2 are considered cold phases. Phase 3 typically sees warmth in the southern part of the United States But the Northeast and to some extent the Middle Atlantic Stay cold. Then phases 4, 5 and 6 are warmer phases at this point in the year. And then Phase 7 acts as a transition back to a colder phase.

The euro ensemble Looking out towards the end of February Is showing the same idea where warmth is in the south but over the Northeast into the Middle Atlantic it's staying cold.

NOAA is also supporting this idea. Showing increased moisture in the pattern as we move into the end of February and march

So to sum all this up So far this winter has been very cold here in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. The region has been inundated with clippers but we've also seen a few Moderate and even big widespread snowstorms. Because of the cold the vast majority of us  have seen close to average and most of us seeing above average snowfall so far for the season; leaving a deep stone pack across a large part of the region The last part of February and most likely the entirety of march is going to be below average in temperatures. With an active subtropical jet increasing allowing and abundant moisture into the pattern. This is going to increase the odds for snowstorms moving forward through March. I can't guarantee every one of them will be snow storms But there will be a mixture of snowstorms, some mixed storms and maybe southern rainstorms at times. But I think the snow that will be coming is going to guarantee the entire region ends up with above average snowfall for the 2025-2026 winter season.

Well I hope you enjoyed looking through this and maybe learned a few things but I definitely hope you learned that what I've been talking about is very much within the realm of the science of meteorology and not wishcraft.