The Tropical Atlantic and Northeast drought.

 

Tropics

Invest 96L is now Tropical Storm Dolly!

The National Hurricane Center this morning increased 96L’s development odds to 90%. Then at the 11:00 am update, they named it Dolly, becoming the Atlantic hurricane season’s 4^th named system. She has max sustained winds of 40 mph, a min central pressure of 1007 mb.

On Satellite we can see her center is nearly exposed, with most of the convection (thunderstorms) displaced to the south of the center. This is the result of that dry air and northerly wind shear.

The forecast track cone from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Dolly tracking west at 24 mph. Dolly will have a fairly short life thanks to the strong wind shear she will run into this weekend around the Caribbean. The NHC forecast has her remain a tropical storm for the few days; before dissipating as she gets near the northern Leeward Islands.

These satellite images come from Mikes Weather Page … A very good tropical site!

 

 Looking at the Dvorak image we can get a good look at Dolly’s core.

 

Drought

 

 

Write up from the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

“The U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday, August 27 showed drought and/or abnormally dry conditions improve in the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New York. However, conditions deteriorated in northern New England and central New York. There were generally limited changes elsewhere in the region.

Severe and/or moderate drought was reduced in West Viriginia and along a path from the Delmarva Peninsula to New York’s Long Island but expanded in Maine and Vermont.

Abnormal dryness was erased from parts of the Mid-Atlantic, southeastern New York, and central New Hampshire but spread in places like central New York, eastern Vermont, and northern New Hampshire.

Record-low seven-day streamflow was confined to only a few spots in coastal New Jersey, New York’s Long Island, and central Maine.

Seven-day streamflow was below normal or lower in coastal New Jersey, eastern Massachusetts, central and northern New York, and much of northern New England.

Groundwater levels were record low in several areas including central and southern Maryland, parts of New Jersey, southeastern Massachusetts, and southern Maine.

The short-term outlooks September 1-9 predict near- or above-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures for the Northeast, which could potentially bring improvements to locations that see notable rainfall amounts or keep conditions unchanged in areas that see less.”