Milder, with rain and storms then cold air moves in!

 

We have yet another strong storm is going to move into Alaska and the Northwest Territories. This is the same pattern we’re going to be seeing as we head through the winter. These large Aleutian Lows are the result of the cold air over Siberia into Alaska and those warm SST in the northern Pacific. The temperature contrast is creating a lot of kinks in the Pacific Jet. This is resulting on very deep troughing which ends up driving tropical moisture out of the Central Pacific northward into Alaska, Yukon and the Northwest Territories.  The Pacific Jet pushes the cold air into the Arctic, while warmer air moves into Canada due to the ridge that sets up due to the placement of the trough over the Aleutians. This is the main pattern I think we’re going to see on display for this winter. All of this will lead to a very strong southern Subtropical Jet with the storm pattern having the storm track going into California, instead of British Columbia and the Pacific Northeast. This will allow a lot of energy to track along the southern jet, then as shortwaves travel along the polar jet, these kinks in the stream could lead to phasing chances between the subtropical and polar jets.   Some of those disturbances in the southern stream will move up the East Coast, then if the cold air is in place, big nor’easters will be possible.

I laid all of this out in the first part of my winter outlook, so if you haven’t read it; I encourage you to do so!

Anyway, what about the Northeast this week.

 

 

Today is going to be mild but gloomy with widespread rain and downpours along with isolated thunderstorms, across New York State and northern into Central New England, this will be especially true for the western and northern parts of New York State. Some of these storms could be strong to severe; the main threat will be localized damaging wind gust and possibly a brief tornado. Here’s a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) thunderstorm outlook, they have a Marginal Risk over Western into Central New York State.  South and east of there will be scattered rain showers. The farther south and east you get the less rain you will see.  With the frontal boundary winds will be gusting up to 30-40 mph along and south and west of the boundary.

For Wednesday the cold front will slowly sag southward later in the day. As this drops south, some isolated showers will be possible across Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. Most of these showers should be spotty and shouldn’t amount too much. We will stay breezy for tomorrow.

Thursday High pressure will make for a mostly dry day, with seasonal temperatures. But the mild weather will be short lived as a strong cold front will drop in for Friday.  Friday will feature not only rain but up to 30 to 40 mph winds. Much colder air settles in behind the front on Friday. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will work through the region; some of these storms could be strong to severe. As the front drops south, a big area of low pressure will set up in the Canadian Maritimes.  As temperatures plummet behind the front, the coldest air of the season will drop in. With the cold air in place, snow showers in the higher elevations of northern half of New York State as well as central and northern New England; it's possible there could be some snow showers even in some of the lower elevations. Those with the best chance of seeing some accumulating snow will be the Tug Hill along with the Adirondack, Green and White Mountains. 

Saturday will stay cold, the colder air moving over the Lower Great Lakes, will allow for some lake-effect rain, and the potential for some mix/snow to develop downwind of both Erie and Ontario over the weekend. Skies will clear and winds will drop across the entire region Saturday night, setting up the potentially for a widespread frost and or freeze, for southern New York State Pennsylvania, and maybe even parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic could see the end of the growing season.

I've been doing a lot of work to get ready for the upcoming winter, So the scope of these posts are smaller than they have been. But I've been working them in for all y'all!

Have a great rest of your day.