Why wasn't a tornado warning issued?

I’ve seen several very recent discussions about why NWS Albany didn't issue or were late to issue a tornado warning on Wednesday's storms.  It always seems many are eager to go into a National Weather Service-bashfest.

First of all how does the warning process develop?

It starts with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) located in Norman, Okla. The SPC is the  one who determines when a tornado watch will be issued, and where and which  counties will be included.  The SPC will communicate with the local NWS field offices involved in the watch area. After this, the tornado watch is issued.

 Once the watch has been issued, it’s up to the local field office to expand it or cancel it all together, if they think the watch is unnecessary. If there is a need for a severe thunderstorm to be warned, that is up to the local National Weather Service. It is also up to the local field office to issue a tornado warning if the conditions in the storm in question warrant it.

There are many reasons why tornadoes can go unwarned. Here are the major reasons.

 1)  I've been inside the Storm Prediction Center, National Severe Storms Laboratory, and a few local NWS field offices. Everyone in these places works hard and has long hours...this is especially true for the local NWS operational forecasters. They are often understaffed and their shifts are long,. For over a week the Northeast has had a lot of severe weather; when it is like this, the forecasters can work 80 hour  weeks or longer. .So it's not uncommon that forecasters can become significantly fatigued on their shifts. This can lead to human mistakes and errors. that lead to missing things including a potential tornado.

2)  In 2013 the NWS intruded changes in an effort to reduce false alarms.   The changes included both technological and how personal react. The radar algorithms work differently to allow for minute by minute input of observations. The goal of lessening false alarms means that forecasters wait until higher confidence exists before issuing warnings in order to decrease the chance they could be wrong.  Many times NWS forecasters now wait until a tornado has begun before issuing a warning more often than prior to this new policy, As radar technology get better and better,  more low key, generally weaker tornadoes are seen than ever before. These newly visible low-end tornado signatures on radar initiate low levels of confidence for forecasters trying to pick out which signatures features on radar are tornadoes, and which are not. These minor tornado possibilities often do not get warned due to lower confidence.

3)  . Sometimes, the radar simply cannot see them. The Earth's curvature causes radar beams to slope upward after they travel a lengthy distance. This may cause the radar beam to cut through the top of a storm. As a result it is often too high to discern if the storm is rotating.

 

4) Most of y'all know that traditional tornadoes develop from a rotating thunderstorm (also known as a mesocyclone) When a thunderstorm has a deep persistent rotating updraft they are called a supercell thunderstorm. Most of the time a traditional tornado will drop out of a wall cloud under the parent thunderstorm and lower to the ground. Once it touches the ground it is called a tornado.  Sometimes, tornadoes develop from the ground up. This type of tornado is called a landspout.

5)  A landspout requires a towering cumulus cloud to be present over a boundary of converging winds near the ground. This is typically found along a cold front or a gust front. The converging winds  from different directions collide with each other; this results in a small area of spin. sometimes this spinning vortex of air will reach the base of the cloud, once that occurs a landspout tornado is born. Landspouts are typically weaker and shorter lived than their traditional cousins.  Landspout tornadoes typically last only a few minutes; since a doppler Radar scan normally takes 4-6 minutes; the landspout could have formed and dissipated before the scan was completed.   Because radar can’t see rotation at ground level, many times a landspout can go undetected. When dealing with landspouts a tornado warning is often instituted late if at all.

 

 

6) Then there are QLCS tornadoes. When thunderstorms become organized, they are called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) A QLCS (Quasi Linear Convective System) is a type of MCS, where the complex of thunderstorms form a squall line. They typically form along a cold front. The armchair meteorologist reading this, know the squall line contains heavy rain, strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and hail.  Sometimes brief little spin ups can occur along the leading edge of the squall line, .  These spin ups are called QLCS tornadoes. This type of tornado is often short lived and  weaker than traditional tornadoes, but not always. While  they can form and dissipate quickly and be hard to detect, they aren't landspout tornadoes.  This is because they form differently.  For a QLCS, as the cold front advances, it lifts warm air out ahead of it. which in turn forms the rain line, as the squall line develops the rain cools the warm air causing it to sink. This creates what is called a cool pool. The cool pool produces strong winds. These winds cause the squall line to bow out.  The cold and dense winds from the bowing line forces warm air to rise (loft); this process empties the space behind the bow, allowing a small area of low pressure to form. This area of low pressure draws in drier air above the squall line.  This process continues as everything develops and accelerates. This results in a tilted updraft to form over the top of the cold pool.  As this escalates a rear inflow jet forms.  As the process rapidly intensifies, vertical stretching of the updraft, which can lead to tornado formation.  Sometimes tornadoes can form within a subtle weak echo region on the forward flank of the bow containing high precipitation supercell characteristics.  There can also be so called bookend circulations at the tips of the bow echo that can also lead to Tornado occurrence.  QLCS tornadoes are most likely to form when the bow is intensifying.  QLCS tornadoes are difficult to detect and often can go unwarned.

 

 

 

7) Technical difficulties. Radar outages, communication outages, power surges/outages, and thunderstorms near or over the radar site, and terrain issues can cause problems.

There are other reasons a tornado can go unwarned....But this is why all warnings should be taken seriously. Far too many take severe thunderstorm warnings lightly.  I've seen this attitude lead to injury and death.  All severe thunderstorms are capable of producing a tornado in the right environment.  So never let your guard down, when a severe thunderstorm is approaching.

 

 

 

The World is melting, the world is melting....part three.

Part Three:

In Part one and two, I talked about predictions that have been made, showed temperature anomaly data, and I laid out some reasons why I think the planet is warming, including how water vapor concentration and not CO₂ effects global temperature. In Part three, I will discuss how a warming planet isn't necessarily a bad thing. It will cover some scientific ground and a brief walk through the historic history of the  rises and falls of human civilization.

The world is melting part one 

The world is melting part two  

The media and human caused climate change supports always show the negative side of a warming Earth. But they never talk about the other side of the global warming coin; that side being benefits caused by global warming. We're bombarded with reports of how hot it is. The alarms go off for where it is warm, but where it is cold you don't hear a peep. The reports and talk are all centered on the areas that are hot during the Summer. But the areas that are cooler than average seem to always be ignored. The global warming  support side of all this talks a good game about the heat dangers....but fail to show the entire picture. Back where I grew up that is called " All hat and no cattle".

The Good the Bad and the Ugly:

One of the biggest human caused global warming supporters out there is the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC), has said "it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause for the observed warming since the mid-20th century"

In part two, I expressed that I don't think Humankind is the overriding factor causing global warming. I've also posted other blog post about human involvement in global warming, so I don't what to rehash that, at least not right now.  Lets instead look at the time period the IRCC is talking about. If we take a look at how humans have been impacted from 1950 to now, we should be able to see if the IRCC claim is accurate.

The dangers of a warming planet have been talked about for decades.

The weather is getting more extreme, hurricanes are stronger, tornadoes are more frequent, longer and more devastating heat waves,  longer and more widespread severe droughts (the phrase perma-drought is most often used), increased pressure on fresh water supplies, greatly reduced crop yields and shrinking meat supplies, dying forest,  human death rates will become much higher, rising ocean levels, a melting arctic endangering polar bears and walruses, the list goes on.

The IRCC and others are saying "the human, environmental, and economic cost of human-caused global warming are becoming increasingly clear. A failure to act will lead to catastrophic consequences". The word is out that  unless we take immediate action to reduce or eliminate emissions, these issues will get worse and worse, until all y'all's  communities, yourself and family, and even the planet itself is gone.       

So are we all doomed?

As I said in part two, the planet is warming. But as I pointed out in the other parts of this series, the warming rate seems to be gradual and fairly constant, hardly the world is on fire, that many are pushing. Let's take a look at some of these climate crisis issues that are constantly brought up.   

Extreme weather:

The claim that weather is getting more and more extreme. For a weather event to be classified as extreme; it must significantly differ from the normal patterns, be associated with severe impacts and be historically infrequent.

But what evidence is there that extreme weather is becoming more frequent and dangerous?  The answer is none. None of the data shows any trend that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent or dangerous.

There is no direct evidence that shows the number of annual tornadoes, their strength, or the number of outbreaks has increased. over the last 10 years there has be an increase in the number of reported tornadoes. But I believe the lion share of those are a result of more people reporting them, and technological improvements and means of reporting.

Over the last ten years, there have been more years with below average activity then there has been for average to above average activity across the CONUS. The biggest tornado outbreaks that we know of are: the 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, the 1974 Super Outbreak, and the largest being the 2011 tornado outbreak. There is no reason to think that large tornado outbreaks are anything new; there have undoubtedly been outbreaks as large as these, if not larger, going back well before the historical record. There are simply no reliable reports, because few or no one saw them.  The incomplete recorded history of tornado records only goes back to 1950.  Since around 1980 there does seem to be a shift of tornado alley eastward. But could this be a result of a long term pattern, or something else?  No one is really sure.

Are hurricanes becoming stronger and stronger?  Are we seeing increasing tropical cyclone numbers? Again the answer is no.

Before the satellite era the only way to track tropical cyclones was through ship reports or more frequently when they made landfall somewhere. There could have been many active years, that no one simply doesn't know about.  The first reliable weather satellite was launched by NASA back in April of 1960.  The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be extremely inactive. Looking at the recorded history, we know there have been many quiet seasons, just as there have been active seasons. The 1930's and the 1950's as a whole were more active than the last 10-15 years.  Historically there have been several powerful and deadly hurricanes. There is no real evidence that shows our current hurricanes are stronger and deadlier than hurricanes of the past.

Are heat waves, droughts, and cold outbreaks worse and more frequent?  If we look at the historical data, there is no real conclusive data that shows the claim to be true.   Over the last several hundred years there have been severe heat waves, droughts, arctic cold outbreaks, Many of these were worse than what we've experienced over the last couple of decades. The 1930's saw one of the worst droughts in recorded history (The Great Dustbowl Era). But that reversed. Recently we've seen the destructive droughts in California, Southwest, and Texas. Many were calling these perma-droughts, because they would forever be there. But these too passed.

The talk of heat has been around a lot not just recently, but going back for years.

Of late Boston and New York City have topped the list. But places in Europe and Japan have been in the news as well. According to the record, Boston has reached 100°F or higher 22 times Once was on July 22, 1926. The last time Boston reached 100°F or higher was July 22, 2011. Boston reached 104°F back on the 4th of July in 1911; so clearly Boston gets hot in July.  In New York City they have reached 100°F or higher 60 times. Here are three charts that has been compiled for Central Park.

  When we consider the charts; we can see the late 40's and the 1950's  had on average more numerous and longer lasting heat issues than we've seen currently. We also can see the how things have actually improved with regard to oppressive heat since the 1950's.

The same thing can be said for ice storms, blizzards, arctic outbreaks.  

I could go on, but I think I've made my point. Yes different spots on the planet have extreme weather events, sometimes these events can last for years. But the weather doesn't stay extreme, everything cycles back to more or less average conditions.  So a warming planet, doesn't necessarily  increase the risk for death and destruction.  

Agriculture will become near impossible:

The claim is, a warming globe is a major threat to agriculture that will completely disrupt food supplies. Is this accurate? Not really. In spite of increased fossil fuel use, global crop yields such as corn, wheat, and soy have been increasing since 1960. The yield increased over 25% since 2000, around 44% since 1990, and a whopping around 88% since 1980.  Looking at the data, since 1960 the global food supply has increased around 6% for each person on the planet; while at the same time the global population has increase by more than 17%. As a result of the increased food availably, the number of undernourished people has declined nearly 5% since 2000; it was 15% now it is near 10%.  

Here are several charts that show how crop yields are increasing and agriculture is improving.

Over the last half century the global temperature has risen by nearly 1°C. That is half of the dreaded 2°C increase that will lead to global starvation; but there hasn't been a massive decline in crop yields or in food production.  In spite of reaching the half way point in the global warming melting point, there hasn't been global calamity , especially when it comes to food production, over that 1°C temperature increase.

I'm not saying increasing temperature is causing increased crop yields. What I'm saying is the view that warming temperatures will drastically lower crop yields is wrong. I just don't see anywhere in the data that rising temperatures are lowering crop yields. Farmers adapt and adjust when and how they plant, based on the weather and climate. Scientist and farmers keep developing seeds, products, and methods  that increase yields. So while there is no doubt a temperature rise point exist where crops are effected, I don't see crop yields going down, they might not go up, but I don't see them going down.  

Human life and prosperity will suffer:

As I said above, the global temperature has risen by nearly 1°C over the last century or so. That is half of the dreaded 2°C increase that will lead to death and destruction. Many times when global warming is mentioned a "Mad Max" type bleak future is described. But is it really true that warmth like we're currently experiencing or even warmer will lead the collapse of civilization and the end of human prosperity? The historical record says the answer is no. In fact it shows the exact opposite.

The last great ice age lasted for 100,000 years, Humans struggled to survive and human advancement was almost nonexistent. In the 12,000 years since then we've had warm periods and cold periods. During the warm periods humankind prospered, while during the cold periods humans suffered and civilization regressed.     

The Bronze Age occurred during the Minoan Warm Period (MWP).  The bronze age is the first truly technological revolution. The making and use of bronze was a huge improvement over the Stone Age. The Bronze Age started around 3300BC and lasted for around 3,000 years. The use of bronze caused profound changes to global civilization and human advances and social development. The Bronze Age is divided into three parts( early, middle, and late)  During this period, we saw the rise of the Egyptian civilization; during the late period was Egypt's most prosperous time and Egypt was at the height of its power. During the Bronze Age Greece also became a world power, and the first major civilization in Europe. This is considered the birth of western civilization. During the late bronze Age, the Alpine glaciers shrank to one-fifth of their the 19th century BC  coverage, allowing people to move goods from southern Europe to northern Europe through the Brenner Pass.  During the MWP we saw such things as the invention of mathematics and writing. The beginning of cities, and the fermentation of wine.  The climatic record shows this age was most likely warmer than our current age.     

A cooling event in the Arctic, called the 4.2 Kiloyear Bond Event, marks the beginning of the end of the Bronze Age.

We know this because of the Greenland ice core data. This event lead to a global drought, areas of intense rain, and a drastic and long lasting cold period,  that began around 1177 BC and lasted between 100 and 400 years.  Here is a chart that shows the areas we know to have been effected by this event, It could very well have been much more widespread than is shown, because most written records of that time are nonexistent. The global disruption has been dubbed the Meghalayan Age (for the area around the Mediterranean it has been called the Greek Dark Age). During this age, came the sudden collapse of  the Egyptian Old Kingdom; and the  major disruption of many global civilizations and empires of the time, such as the Minoan, Mycennaean, Hittite, Egyption New Kingdom. In Asia it caused the collapse of the Akiadian Empire in Mesopotamia, the Lingzhu culture in the Lower Yangtze River Valley, and Indus Valley Civilization. In the Americas it lead to the collapse of the Maya civilization.

After the Meghalayan Age, we enter the Roman Warm Period (RWP). During the RWP, the collapse of civilization reverses, leading to robust civilizations recovering or developing in the Americas, Mediterranean, China, and India.  By the time of Alexander The Great, global civilization had become very advanced. Major Cities sprang up. It was a time of major cultural, economic, and technological development, across Europe, Asia, and India. The RWP marks the beginning of modern civilization. During this age humankind's written history of most major climatic and cultural events takes place. Based on the written record, ice core data, and tree ring observation, the RWP was as warm and most likely warmer than our current age.   

But as happened in the MWP, the RWP ended with an extended and very cold period, along with an European into western Asia drought. There is also a mega-drought in western North America into South America during this time. Parts of the globe were also impacted by too much rainfall. An Italian scholar Francesco Petrarch named this period the European Dark Age (EDA) and is still called that  by many (but many also call it the Early Middle Ages).   During this time we saw the total collapse of the Eastern Roman Empire and the European Civilizations.  The EDA ran from around 500 AD to around 1100 AD (some say it went to 1500 AD). Then from around 450 AD to 950 AD the climate became quite cold. As is often the case during transitions from a warm period to a cooler period, we see human warfare and human migration.   Around 500 AD Rome was sacked, as a result, the western Roman civilization, transferred to the eastern part of the Roman Empire. The Eastern Roman Empire, became known as the Byzantine Empire. The Song  Dynasty in China along with the Byzantine and Islamic Empires didn't suffer the climatic upheaval caused by cold and drought as bad as it effected Europe and the Mediterranean.  This gave rise to feudalism as the major political and economic system in Europe. During the EDA famine, disease and pandemics were widespread, Europe was devastated by a major outbreak of the Bubonic Plague (Black Death), again the Byzantine and Islamic Empires were affected by the Black Death outbreak, but not as bad as Europe. The Black Death killed 100-200 million people. While there were some technological advancements and scientific discoveries during the EDA, the rate of advancement was vastly slower than during the RWP.  The Middle Ages is often divided into the Early, High, and Late Middle Ages.

The Medieval Warm Period  occurred during the Late Middle Ages. It went from around 950 AD to around 1250 AD.  During the early part of the period we saw around two hundred years where the global temperature rose by 2°C. This warm period brought about the redevelopment of European civilization as well has other civilizations in other parts of the world.  During the last part of the Late Middle Ages, from the 14th to 17th centuries (1300 AD-1600 AD) the Renaissance. came about.  The 15th century saw Renaissance ideas of art, literature, science, and technology spread from Italy to the rest of Europe. European culture, enlightenment, prosperity, and lifestyle rapidly moved forward. The Renaissance is a direct bridge between the Middle Ages and our modern world. During the MWP temperature anomalies were at least as warm as they are now.

Following the Medieval Warm Period, we again reverted to a relatively colder, wetter, and stormier pattern. This time it was called the Little Ice Age (LIA). The  LIA was a period between around 1300 AD and 1830 AD. The LIA had two phases the first ran from 1300 to into the end of the 1400's; when temperatures dropped off quickly.  It was during this time that the Norse colonies in Greenland were abandoned due to starvation, cold and the growth of the glaciers and sea ice.  Then during the  first half of the 1500's the temperature warmed slightly. The cold came back substantially around 1560 and lasted for over 200 years. The height of the LIA was between 1600 and 1800, with the coldest part between 1645 and 1715, this was during the Maunder Minimum; which was an extended period of little or no solar sunspot activity. The decreased solar radiation caused by sunspots was reduced, adding to the climatic upheaval of the colder environment. There was a very brief warmer period between 1830 and 1870, then a brief cool down from 1870 to around 1910.  During the LIA winters were bitterly cold and summers were short and often cool and wet. Winter temperatures were about 2°C colder than they are on average now. The Baltic Sea froze over, as did the most of the lakes and rivers of Europe and in Eastern Canada, New England, and the Mid Atlantic Region. Winter started very early and ended very late; this shortened the growing season and lead to widespread crop failure, famine caused by drought or too much rain, and a population decline in parts of North America and Europe.  During the LIA the great famine of 1315.  There was an intense mega-drought in north-central Europe that lasted from 1437 - 1473 . In addition there were three severe droughts that impacted Europe during the years. 1540, 1590, and 1719. North America and many parts of the Northern Hemisphere was also impacted with droughts during the LIA.  The year 1816 has been called The Year Without a Summer. A major volcanic eruption in Indonesia added to the already severe conditions,  Many people and animals starved or froze to death. As a result of  the 1816 cold and famine, Many New Englanders migrated to the Midwest and Plains.     The history in Northern Europe was effected in different ways. Areas like the British Isles, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg had diversified their agriculture and they had access to the major trade routes, were able to cope with the severe  weather conditions much easier, as they could import food and other things they needed.  The European High Lands and areas like Central Europe suffered with Famines and droughts. The same thing happened in North America, some areas thrived while others struggled. In 1780 the New York Harbor completely froze over. Unlike the previous cold periods the overall economies, cultures of Europe and North America were only moderately impacted. For the 1st part of the LIA there was no technological advancement for 150-200 years; then during the later part of the LIA, we saw the creation and development of ship building technology that allowed for the establishment  of seaborne trade routes. And the birth of the Spanish and Portuguese and then a little later, the Dutch, English and other European nations colonial empires. Also at the end of the LIA The 1st Industrial Revolution took place. As in past cold periods, during the LIA, the world saw major conflict and warfare. The French Revolution, the English 30 year war, The collapse of the Chinese Ming Dynasty due to the Manchurian invasion and the revolt and uprising of Chinese Peasants, American war for independence along with the American Civil War fought during the brief warming toward the end of the LIA, and many others.  

The Modern Warm Period began around 1910, but some say it started as early as 1870.  In a little over a century humankind has made incredible medical, scientific, industrial, and technological advances. The speed at which our modern global civilization is advancing is breathtaking.  

    

Looking back at what I just wrote...I'm not saying drought and flooding didn't happen during the warm periods....All I'm trying to show is that by far, during the cold periods global upheaval caused by drought, flood, and other natural and human caused processes lead to a very hostile environment. Disasters that led to a lot of death and hardship, in some cases even the complete collapse of some civilizations in different parts of the world.  

I think it is clear that during the warm periods humans prosper, with the reverse being true during the cold periods.  The current warming we're experiencing isn't something new. When we hold up the mirror of history, we see the similar and in many cases worse periods of warming. Humans have survived the cycle of warming and cooling of the past, (there have been several of these over the last 18,000 years).  There is no reason we can't survive our current warming period...or the cooling period that will undoubtedly follow it at some time in the future.

I'm not saying we live in a perfect world. We face issues and threats from several fronts. But it is very important to keep things in perspective, the world today is far more prosperous, healthier, better educated than ever before. Each of us, has a higher standard of living than our ancestors could possibly dream of. If we don't let ourselves be sidetracks by political or social issues the future is very bright.  To answer the questing are we doomed? To me, the answer is a resounding no!

I've decided to post a part four to this series, to try and sum things up

Link to part 4.