The world is melting, The world is melting.... part 4

Welcome to the final installment in my the world is melting the world is melting series.

The other parts went into the details, so I won't retrace that ground.

In Part one of this series, I talked about the claims and predictions that global warming supporters and the main stream media have been saying over the last several decades . I also showed facts that debunk all of that, at least in my opinion (IMO).

Part One

In part two, I talked about what I think is causing the Earth to warm. I used a lot of real data that shows how water vapor and not CO2 is at the heart of what is going on.

part Two

In part three, I showed how  human prosperity across the entire planet has never been better, than it is right now.   I also used the historic record to show how the Earth has had warm ups and cool downs over the millennia.  The data showed that humankind always gains affluence and sees abundance during the warm periods; but sees scarcity, hardship and abject poverty during the cool downs.

Part Three

In part four, I will sum things up:

Part four:

My Mother, has told me how the climate change discussion back in the 60's and 70's was all about global cooling, and concern we were all heading into an ice age.  The culprit back then was  industrial pollutants, vehicular emissions, coal combustion emissions, and other such human caused possesses  causing smog.

Here is a News Week article from 1975 that shows what the media back then was abuzz with.

 

 

But to be fair, many scientist of the time we're talking about a warming globe.

 

During the 1980's the media attention switched to global warming; again the guilty party was humankind and our machines and technology .  The initiative didn't change, only the temperature was going up instead of down.

During the 1990's the phrase coined became climate change. But calling it climate change, the scope of everything went well beyond just a warming planet.

We are told, that human caused global warming/climate change is a scientific fact.  But it really isn't.  Instead it's a theory.  Scientist have many tools available they use to try to describe how things work.  In common usage, the words hypothesis, model, law, theory, and fact have different interpretations and many times aren't use all that accurately. But when it comes to science these words have exact meanings.  

My Father was a huge fan of Star Trek. I remember, watching an episode with him ( I think it was the original Star Trek). Anyway, the captain was being court marshaled. During the show, in response to a lawyers question, Mr. Spock, said something like "If I let go of a hammer, I need not see it fall to know that it has in fact fallen."

Fact, when you drop a hammer, it falls to the ground (or your foot).  A fact is an observation that has been confirmed time after time. So many times, that for all intent and purpose it is accepted as true. But science leaves the door always open, because there is a chance that the hammer might not always fall.

Example of a hypothesis, a hammer fell to the ground because an unseen force is pulling it down.

Example of a law, all objects attract each other with a force of gravitational attraction. Gravity is universal. This force of gravitational attraction is directly dependent upon the masses of both objects and inversely proportional to the square of the distance which separates their centers. This is the law of gravity.  Using another law, Newton's Law Of Gravity, we can calculate the gravitational force between the Earth and the Hammer, which would let us calculate the hammers acceleration as it falls, calculate the force it would exert when it hit the ground, and how much force it would take to pick the hammer back up, etc.

A theory is an explanation of some aspect of the natural universe we live in that's well-substantiated by facts, tested hypotheses, and laws.

Example of a theory, the laws of physics are the same everywhere. Because of this the behavior of all objects in space and time are affected , so Mass and energy cause space/time to curve and warp, and the force of gravity arises from the curvature of space/time. This is  Albert Einstein's famous theory of relativity. The idea that space and time were fluid, upended centuries of the scientific idea space and time were fixed and unmovable.

So the general idea this theory is talking about, is that gravity is the result of a curving or warping of space, instead of an invisible force that attracts objects  to one another.  The more massive the object the more it warps the space around it. In the case of our original hypothesis, the hammer isn't being pulled down by an invisible force, it is being affected by the warping and curvature of space/time, due to the difference in mass between the hammer and the Earth.

An example on a larger scale, the sun is massive enough to warp space across our entire solar system...a bit like if our hammer fell to rest on a rubber sheet visibly alters (warps) the shape of the sheet. As a result the Earth and the other planets move in curved paths (orbits) about the sun.  

The concept of gravity is undoubtedly much more complex than what Einstein's purposes, so at some point we will have to move beyond the theory of relativity to a more comprehensive theory that explains the things that the theory of relativity can't explain.

But at this time, Einstein's theory is best description of how gravity works.  

Mr. Einstein actually has two theories of relativity. One is the theory of general relativity, the other is the theory of special relativity. The subject matter of both of these theories goes beyond the scope this post wants to cover. But If y'all want, I can make a separate post sometime that deals with both theories of relativity.

I've sidetracked myself and all of y'all long enough....back to global climate change.

Climate change/global warming is a very hot button topic. There is so much noise surrounding the debate, that it can be difficult to see the forest for the trees.  In this multipart series, I've tried to show the science and major facts behind the current climate debate, as I understand them. I'm a meteorologist not a climatologist; but that doesn't mean I don't have a good grasp of the subject of climate. changeability

The 2019 hurricane season started out very slowly. There wasn't a lot of talk in the media about global warming until hurricane Dorian; since then the global warming alarm has been ringing nonstop.  To me it seems the climate change alarmist, strike when the iron is hot; When a hurricane is having a major impact, we hear about how human caused climate change is the cause for it. When we have a major tornado outbreak, again the cause is human caused climate change.  Major flooding like that caused by Harvey, Florence, and now Imelda is caused by...you got it,  human caused climate change.  They say, hurricane Dorian stalling over the Bahamas was a result of climate change.  We always seem to hear about all the record breaking heat....but never really hear anything about, where there is record cold.

On September 20th, over a million school children, were allowed to miss school, in order to demonstrate and show support on the issue of global warming/climate change.  For me personally I find it more troubling that the schools encouraged the walk out, and that many in government (like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders) and the media supported the idea of the school walkout, than I do about the subject of global warming / climate change.  The so called climate strike was backed by more than 100 environmental and political activist groups and other institutions. IMO it is virtually child abuse, to use seven and eight year old children, as pawns in a complex issue like this. But, that is my option, y'all can have a different option and that is fine. I think one of the biggest obstacles in the climate change debate is the apparent inability to listen to other peoples options.        

Earth's climate is extremely complex. It's effected by solar output,  our orbit, atmospheric gases, volcanoes, as well as a multitude of teleconnections and other atmospheric drivers. 

The planet's climate has constantly been changing over geological time. The global average temperature today is about 15C. in the previous parts I showed how it has been much warmer and much colder in the past. The claim is that our current warming period, is advancing more rapidly than many past events. The climate change supporters are concerned that the natural fluctuation in our climate is being overtaken by a rapid human induced warming element that has serious implications for the stability of our climate oscillation ebb and flow. 

But weather isn't climate. This is the most important thing I want all y'all to take away from all of this.  Humankind hasn't been keeping any kind of real temperature records for very long.   The United States has been keeping records going back to around 1875; while Europe has been keeping temperature records a bit longer going back to around 1850. So our observations and real records only go back a short distance in time. Before the modern historic record, it is mostly guesses as to what was really going on. If those guesses are input into the climate models, if the guesses are wrong, the end result will be something far from reality..... garbage in garbage out.  Over the last several years, the data has been adjusted to better fit the theory of what is going on. Instead of adjusting the models and thinking to what the data is saying. IMO, this makes the water so murky, no one could see the answer if they tried.  As facts change the theory evolves, not the other way around.   

Climate change is an extremely complex subject.  But we can't let emotions and fear tactics to drive the dynamics. We need to let science and reason control the narrative. 

In parts one, two, and three, I said there is no doubt that the globe is warming. I just disagree with those who support the idea that the sole reason is it's  human caused.  But that doesn't mean, I don't support efforts to reduce the influence humankind has over the Earth's Climate.

The idea that we know all the reasons the Earth is warming, is beyond arrogance into the absurd. We need time for real science to figure out what's going on , and what we can do to slow it down. But If I'm right that the vast majority of the current warming is due to natural reasons...there isn't much we can do about it.

That's about it, hope you enjoyed it....and can see my side of this climate change debate.