06/29/2025

 Post on the end of June into July.

Here is the current 500 mb pattern over North America, courtesy of tropical tidbits. I was talking about this last week. We can see the trough dropping out of Canada, we have that big red developing out west. Here in the Eastern US we can see that monster ridge we had just a few days ago is gone.

As the trough and shortwave continue to drop in; it will have an impact on our weather by midweek. Today most of the region Is experiencing season temperatures with moderate humidity, behind a cold front pushing east. But the Mid Atlantic Including the I-95 corridor Between New York City and Washington DC will be much warmer.

Tomorrow as that trough continues to approach, we're gonna see a ridge start to build here in the Northeast. This will allow our temperatures and humidity levels to increase.

Currently we have sun building from the west and southwest As high pressure Builds  in. So areas under the clouds now in New York State into New England will see some sun this afternoon.

So all in all not a bad day with generally seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures. This will change by tomorrow when we'll see higher temperatures and a noticeable increase in humidity. With the higher dew point the feel like (heat index) temperature will be uncomfortable. Looking  back at the surface chart, the system associated with the shortwave out over the northern and central Plains; will be dropping south and east. Tomorrow we will see isolated to scattered rain showers develop and move across New York State and Pennsylvania; there will be isolated thunderstorms as well. Some of the storms tomorrow will be strong to severe. The main danger will be damaging wind gust, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Some hail is also possible. The tornado risk will be very low but  as is always the case in these kind of situations it is never  zero. The best timing for any severe weather will be 2PM through 9 or 10PM. Those were the greatest risk of seeing the severe weather will be across eastern/southeastern New York State, Pennsylvania and into New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware tomorrow evening  into tomorrow night.

Tuesday as the actual cold front swings through we will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. There will be a greater chance for severe storms. Again the main threat will be Strong damaging winds heavy downpours and some hail. 

Wednesday and Thursday we'll see high pressure approach and move in overhead. Thursday a week disturbance will pass through that could set off some rain showers and maybe isolated thunderstorms; but the majority of us should stay dry. July 4 friday is looking to be dry, with cooler temperatures and lower humidity behind the cold front. Right now The high pressure looks to stick around for Saturday into Sunday providing nice weather for the weekend.