10/09/2025

 This great fall like weather will last  through tomorrow before we deal with a monster storm.

Looking at the surface chart we can see the cold front has moved off shore as high pressure builds in out of Canada.

The radar and satellite imagery show dry conditions over the entire region With plenty of sunshine.

 

The high pressure overhead is going to produce very cool but tranquil conditions for today and tomorrow. Tonight under these clear skies It's going to become very cold for this time of year; frost warnings are up across many areas.

Image credit Pivotal weather

The areas in white across New York State and New England, indicate where the national weather service has already declared the growing season over; so they don't issue any frost/freeze warnings for those areas. Tonight's conditions will likely lead to the end of the growing season for New York State, New England and much of Pennsylvania.

The satellite continental Image shows not much going on across the CONUS. But we can see the disturbance in the pacific northwest that will lead to a snowstorm in the northern Rockies in a few days. It also shows the area off the Southeast Coast that will be our next big weather maker coming together.

A formidable coastal storm

As I said yesterday we're going to have an upper level feature thats going to be diving out of the Great Lakes, then interact and eventually merge with the coastal storm. This is going to try to pull the coastal storm north up the coast. But we're also going to have that strong high pressure to the north that's going to try and block this at least somewhat.

Another player in this is going to be Tropical Storm Jerry. Which by the time we're dealing with this coastal storm, he should be Hurricane Jerry. He is going to be to the east And he is going to keep that eastern door shut. So this coastal can't pull east at least too far. Jerry is also going to have a say on how far north this coastal can actually get.

Right now, this looks to possibly come as far north as Southern or even Central New Jersey. Where it will hang out and spin a bit for later Sunday and Monday before starting to slide back south and east, and head further east into the Atlantic.

In anticipation of this, the National Weather Service, Mount Holly has issued watches and advisories along the Coast from the Carolinas up into New Jersey

The factors that I've been talking about the last few days are going to start coming together tomorrow off the Southeast Coast between Florida and South Carolina. Then the coastal low is going to start to deepen late Friday into early Saturday. Sunday into Monday The storm will become quite strong.

The models are in decent agreement as to how things transpire. But they do have some subtle differences.

Image credit tropical tidbits

As I also said yesterday, this is going to be a long duration event which will likely impact.  The east coast for 36-48 hours, with big swells, strong winds and moderate to heavy rainfall at times. It's a little too early to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rains will be. But I can guarantee that some people are going to see an awful lot of rain out of this. That stiff easterly fetch of 20-30 mph winds with gust of 40-60+ mph could very well lead to moderate to perhaps significant coastal flooding and beach erosion. Those from Virginia up into New England will have to go through several High Tides, increasing the risk significant coastal flooding. In addition to that there could be quite a bit of property damage. This looks to make a big impact along the Coast from the Carolinas north into long Island and part of Southern New England. This will be especially true for Virginia up through the Delmarva Peninsula and Southern New Jersey.

Rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches with locally heavy amounts possible are likely along the Coast from the Southeast up into New England. 7 day precipitation Ideas from Pivotal Weather.

 

The impacts of this across Western into Central Pennsylvania, Western, Central and Northern New York State as well as Northern New England will be much less than those closer to the coast. Due to the wind and rain impacts becoming less and less the further inland you go.

Tropical storm Jerry

The 11:00 AM update from the national weather service has Jerry's maximum sustained winds at 65 mph with a central pressure of 999 MB. He is tracking west northwest at around 18 mph as he approaches Leeward Islands

Jerry is still dealing with wind shear, so he is having some issues trying to get his act completely together. His strongest winds are on the east side.

Image credit tropical tidbits

He looks to pass just north and east of the islands later today. Then turn north And then north and east Well south and east of Bermuda. As conditions become slightly more supportive And he moves over the warmer Gulf Stream, he should obtain hurricane status tomorrow morning. 

Image credit Tomer Burg