10/15/2025

 It's cool and breezy.

Here is a look at the surface chart and radar.

We can see the cold front moving into New England and the Middle Atlantic region. Behind the cold front we're getting a reinforcing shot of cold air, with scattered rain showers and breezy conditions behind it. So you might want to wear a sweater or jacket and have an umbrella just in case.

Tomorrow high pressure is going to move in overhead providing dry and very tranquil conditions for tomorrow and right through Friday. Both Thursday and Friday temperatures will be below average for this time of year. Wednesday and Thursday Will remain very breezy, Then Thursday night and Friday winds will start back off.

Friday night and Saturday we will be watching a warm front approach and move through the region. Along the front there will be a chance for a few rain showers But the vast majority of y'all shouldn't see any rain. Saturday we'll see temperatures rebound becoming average to slightly above average. Much of Sunday Is looking to remain dry with seasonally warmer temperatures, As the high pressure overhead starts to push east ahead of  a cold front approaching from the west, ahead of this front winds will once again become breezy.  These warmer temperatures won't last as we will see that cold front approach for Sunday night and move through on Monday. With the cold front will come the chance for widespread scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. 

Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday are looking to remain active as we watch a series of troughs approach and move through the region. With these troughs we will see much needed isolated to scattered rain showers across the region.

Image credit tropical tidbits.

Tropical Atlantic

Tropical storm Lorenzo has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, with a minimum central pressure Of 1005MB. He is tracking north northeast at around 14 mph. 

Image credit Tomer burg

He is dealing with a lot of dry air along with wind shear. All of this is keeping him looking very ragged and I don't expect him to remain a tropical storm much longer. But regardless of what becomes of Lorenzo He is going to be very short-lived and won't pose a problem for anything but fish and some shipping  interest.

Image credit tropical tidbits

We have a strong tropical wave sitting off the West Coast of Africa south of the Cabo Verde islands.  Typically at this time of year conditions are over the central and western Atlantic aren't all that conducive for Tropical storms to develop, as this wave deals with that wind shear and dry air impacting Lorenzo, it should keep things in check;  so this shouldn't develop out over the Atlantic. This time of year the conditions in the Caribbean and Gulf of America are generally much more supportive than the rest of the Atlantic basin. As this wave gets into the eastern Caribbean early next week We could see some slow development as it pushes west towards and into the western Caribbean. A larger problem the wave will have to overcome is at entering the Caribbean at such a low latitude. Being that far south could cause it some issues due to  land interaction with South America.

The Caribbean and Gulf of America are very warm with a lot deeper oceanic heat content, this is especially true in the Caribbean. So if conditions permit this will have a chance to develop into a tropical depression or even a named system. Wind shear as we head towards the second half of next week looks to be lower in the western Caribbean east of Honduras. Here is a chart courtesy of tropical tidbits.

Image is slowing the Euro Ensemble's thoughts.

So if this can gain a bit of latitude, there is a chance this could develop over the southwest Caribbean during the second half of next week.