A quick post on winter 2025 and 2026

 A lot of official data is unavailable right now due to the shutdown. But I thought I would make another look at the upcoming winter and the evolving pattern.

Snowfall extent and Arctic ice cover is growing quite quickly across the northern hemisphere.

The arctic pattern is quickly shifting

These images from Tropical Tidbits show that warm air is encroaching on the arctic region. Which is displacing the cold into the lower mid latitudes. Right now that is sitting over Eurasia. So that cold is going to promote even more snow growth across Siberia into Alaska. The growing sea ice extent is going to help continue to help build that bridge needed to bring that colder air over Siberia across the Bering Sea into North America and eventually into the continental US.

Sea Surface Temperature

The map shows those coolish SSTs with a weak La Nina Look. It also shows all those warm waters in the north pacific But we are noticing a bit of cooling trying to develop in the Gulf of Alaska as opposed to the last time I posted The SSTS for winter outlook. So we will have to see if this trend continues. But right now I still think this is gonna promote rigging Alaska and Pacific West Coast

Here is what does climate prediction center CPC is thinking for general temperature and precipitation patterns for October into December. But they could be Overdoing it a bit for the temperature pattern here in the Northeast, As parts of the region could have snowfall opportunities before thanksgiving.

The  El nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

As I've said many times The ENSO involves Sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific. Which consists of the warmer phase called El Nino and the cooler phase called La Nina, with neutral conditions seeing temperatures considered average across the equatorial pacific.

The government is still shut down. So the Climate Prediction Center isn't updating their information. But looking at the overall conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific It does look like we are drifting towards a very weak la Nina. But the question is will we meet official La Nina standards. It is almost as likely that that we will experience a neutral ENSO this winter which means neither El Nino or La Nina are influencing global conditions. If we do see a weak La Nina It should be very short lived.

The above maps show the typical windstream pattern during la Nina and El nino

But remember no to El nino's or La Nina's are exactly the same.

A weak La Nina would open the door for other factors and teleconnections to exert influence on our weather here in the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic. So winter 20252026 could be quite Variable with conditions ranging from mild to sometimes volatile.

But regardless of reaching the official threshold For La Nina; a cool neutral ENSO will act somewhat like a weak La Nina. Where the global wind pattern resembles that of a La Nina. 

Average snowfall anomalies during weak La Nina winters

Some analog winters

2013-2014, 2014-2015, 2024-2025

Last winter was considered a weak La Nina that was very short-lived. Lasting from December 2024 into early 2025.

Typically La Nina Increase the odds For above average winter temperatures and wetter than average winters here in the Northeast. This is basically because La Nina weakens the northern Pacific jet and pulls it westward,  which strengthens the polar vortex and leads to less waviness and less volatility in the polar vortex pattern. But as I said in another update I did, those very warm SST in the North Pacific will likely throw a monkey wrench into the works.  It is possible they will keep that northern jet from exerting a lot of influence on the polar vortex. Which in turn will lead to a weaker polar vortex that is much more wavy leading to chances for cold outbreaks to work into the lower latitudes of North America. We saw this occur last winter. That had very similar conditions and was considered a weak La Nina.

Other winters that had a similar look, also typically had colder than average temperatures over the Northeast into the Middle Atlantic. As well as higher chances for higher than normal snowfall over northern parts of New York State and northern New England.

The winter of 2013-2014 was an active winter here in the Northeast with generally below average temperatures and above average snowfall for many areas.

Here are some general thought for the upcoming winter. I'm basing this on the three analog winters As well as the conditions that look to be developing so far. This is a rough estimate of what could happen but isn't an official outlook.

Overall December through February temperatures look to be 0°F to --2°F around average to slightly below average for most of the Northeast region. Western Pennsylvania and western New York State could see generally -2° F to -3° F below average temperatures during December through February. The northern Middle Atlantic region could see overall temperatures 0° F to +2 °F average to above average during December through February.

The I-95 corridor will likely see more snow than you saw last winter. But general snowfall could still be lacking a bit as far as the long-term average

The Great Lakes could do very well this winter as far as snowfall. So those leak effect belt regions could be very busy.

That's it Hope you enjoy reading!