Surface
Chart, Radar and Satellite
The winter
pattern has been quickly developing. Over the next couple of weeks, the Pacific
is going to become very active, we look to see a split flow, with a parade of lows
hitting Alaska down into the Pacific Northwest. We’re going to see a lot of
kinks develop in the Jet Stream resulting in steep ridges and deep troughs moving
west to east across North America. Due
to the struggle between the El Nino warmth to the south and the colder air
dropping in from the north the subtropical jet is going to take steroids and
will be supercharged.
Today
We have that
upper-level trough moving through, keeping things a bit unsettled with isolated
showers across New York State, New England, into Pennsylvania. Temperatures are
seasonal for this time of year. This
afternoon skies will start to clear, with these gusty winds continuing for
today. Wind gust of 20-30 mph will be possible at times.
For the
rest of the week
Tomorrow,
will see temperatures become a little milder, with winds dismissing a little. Tonight,
and tomorrow high pressure will build in
Another
disturbance will be pushing through Canada Tuesday into Tuesday night. Northern
New York State and northern New England could see a few passing showers, but
much of the region should stay dry. The farther north you are the more clouds
you will see. The rain will be scattered with a chance for a few snow showers
late afternoon into the first half of the night in the higher elevations and
far northern Maine. Veterans Day Wednesday
is still looking like a decent day with a mix of sun and clouds
Coastal
Low
We have a disturbance in the northern stream over the Upper Plains and a disturbance in the southern jet moving out of Texas heading for the Southeast. We’re going to see an interaction from the colder air dropping in behind the disturbance in the polar northern Jet. As this evolves, the disturbance in the southern subtropical jet, will infect warmer air and moisture. This will lead to a coastal storm developing. As the disturbances try to merge, we look to see a coastal storm try to develop and intensify.
As I said yesterday, this Coastal/nor’easter depending on track, will bring some snow that will be elevational driving for parts of the region. This is going to be a slow mover, impacting the region from later Thursday into Saturday.
With the
warmer Atlantic little to no snow is expected along the Coastal Plain. So,
places like Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston should only
see rain.
Right now, I
suspect there could be cold showers with a chance for some snow showers for
most across western and northern Pennsylvania, New York State and northern and central
New England. There could be some snow generally above 1,000 feet in elevation. With
more in the way of accumulating snow for those above 2500 feet in elevation. The highest elevations could end up with
several inches of snow.
Who sees what and how much will depend on the exact storm track and intensity of the storm. The storm could track more west or more east, a western inland track would mean most of y’all end up with mainly rain with some snow in the mountains. If it tracks a little offshore would lead to a better chance for interior snow as well as rain mix closer to the coast, while a track further to our south and east would keep the storm out to sea would mean limited impacts. How much lake effect rain/snow hits those areas downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will also depend on the track. The European and GFS are showing completely different outcomes, but as we get closer the models will come into much better agreement.
