Active week ahead!

 

The weekend wasn’t too bad the region saw a great Saturday. While Sunday saw spotty showers/storms during the afternoon, but most of us didn’t see them.

We have that high pressure heat dome building out west, we're going to have shortwaves rotate around this bringing the risk for thunderstorm complexes that end up severe.

Some of Y'all wanted to see more detail in these daily post. So, I'm going to try it. Let me know what you think.

 

 

 

Surface chart and radar.

 

High pressure is starting to side east, but it is still generally in charge.  But we do have a trough dropping in; this is resulting in clouds and isolated rain showers this morning into the afternoon. Pop-up thunderstorms will also be around this afternoon; these could bring heavier rain.  The wind flow is such that we do have some wildfire smoke working into the region. But overall air quality won't be too bad. You can see the slight hazy showing up on radar.  Other than these isolated rain showers and thunderstorms, most of us should stay dry today, with temperatures and humidity levels going up.

On the radar we can see that area of low pressure over the northern Great Lakes with a cold front. That cold front will start to slide down over the lakes and move into Ohio along with western Pennsylvania this evening and tonight, we’re going to see several rounds of rain and storms rotate around the low bring the chance for heavy rain into New York State and Pennsylvania this evening and tonight. This will lead to the chance for located flooding. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a slight Risk over the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania and southwest New York State. The biggest threat will be isolated damaging winds (especially across Pennsylvania) and torrential downpours.

The low pressure will end up stalling east of Ohio through Wednesday.  This looks to setup up over Central New York, developing into an upper-level low; that will have disturbances associated with it rotate around it. Keeping things unsettled.  This upper-level low is going to start to cool the temperatures back off starting tomorrow, this cooling trend will continue through the rest of the week. On the other hand, humidity is going to stick around.  The chance for rain and storms will continue on Tuesday night and Wednesday; as shortwaves rotate around the primary low. One of these shortwaves of low pressure will setup off the coast. Bringing the risk for rain and thunderstorms across the Middle Atlantic, eastern Pennsylvania, lower Hudson Valley into southern New England.  There is going to be a chance for bands of heavy rain to setup, resulting in the risk for localized flooding.  Some of the storms will become strong to severe. Those with the best chance of seeing widespread severe storms, will be southeast Pennsylvania, eastern Maryland, Delaware, and South Jersey.  

 

 

During the 2^nd half of the week, the upper-level low is going to start to slowly weaken. It is going to start to meander around keeping the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region for Thursday. For Friday the low is going to start to drift east, but it will be close enough to keep it unsettled for both Saturday and Sunday. There will also be the risk for thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday as well.    Sunday night and Monday will see a cold front move across the region.  No one will see a complete washout Friday Saturday and Sunday, but anyone could end up seeing some rain and or storms.

 All this rain will be beneficial for the areas that are dealing with rainfall deficits and drought. 

Have a nice day!