Wx4cast

This will go into Saturday’s tornadoes, this week’s weather and cover Tropical Depression 2.

Saturday’s tornadoes

The NWS Pittsburgh confirmed that several tornadoes touched down across Western Pennsylvania.

One tornado was confirmed to have touched down northeast of Latrobe near Stewart and Pandora roads in Westmoreland County.

A second was reported just south of Summerville in Jefferson County.

Another tornado also formed, near Houtzdale, Clearfield County. This one has been given a preliminary rating of EF-1 with peak winds reaching around 110 miles per hour. The track was roughly 1 mile long and up to 400 yards wide.

The National Weather Service Buffalo has confirmed an EF-1, with peak winds estimated at 95 mph tornado touched down in New York's Southern Tier during Saturday's severe storms, across parts of Broome and Delaware counties

I’m having a hard time getting information on the tornadoes in Pennsylvania. I will continue to try and get more on the storm surveys on the tornadoes’ strength and path.

Surface chart and radar.

High pressure is in control and will provide seasonal temperatures with lower humidity. The entire region should remain mostly dry for most of the day.

Today we’re going to see that Southwest Ridge start to build again. By Midweek this should expand into the Plains. With the intense heat over the Southwest, it will allow for a southern flow, pushing in moisture out of the Pacific and the Gulf of America. The monsoonal rainfall is much needed and will be welcomed. As this pushes east we will get a piece of it by Tuesday.

We have a stationary front to our south. This is going to become a warm front later today. As this starts to move north, it will allow some of the wildfire smoke back into the region, but it won’t be anything like it was last week. This front will push through later Monday into Tuesday. The front is also going to push in much warmer air with higher humidity; we can expect scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms to move into southern parts of the region during the overnight into tomorrow morning as the warm front approaches and moves in.

Tuesday, we’re going to see that warm front lift through the region, allowing heat and humidity to surge into much of the rest of the region. As a trough and the cold front approaches cooler and less humid air will expand from Canada and the Great Lakes into the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. This will clash with very warm and humid air in place after the warm frontal passage. There is going to be a risk for severe storms across Western New York State, Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic as the front moves east. Storms could be very numerous across western Maryland, western into central Pennsylvania, where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) have a Enhanced Risk for severe weather. The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms across the rest of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, western/ central and southern New York State including NYC and part of Long Island, western Connecticut and southwest Massachusetts. a Marginal Risk is over the rest of New York State and western into Central New England.

The main hazards will be damaging wind gusts up to around 70 mph. flash flooding especially were we see training thunderstorms. But there is also the risk for moderate to large hail, frequent lightning and isolated tornadoes. The storms should gradually decrease after sunset. The cold front will be moving quite slow, so it likely won’t move off the Coast until later Wednesday afternoon, which means the risk for severe weather will continue on Wednesday during the morning into the afternoon. Again, the risk will be strong damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. I can’t rule out an isolated tornado or two. Skies should be clearing by Wednesday evening.

High pressure will work in behind the cold front. So, Thursday through Sunday is looking to be mostly sunny and fairly tranquil with average to below average temperatures, light winds, and low humidity for the entire region. There is a very slight chance of an isolated shower on Sunday. Monday will see another cold front approach and move through, with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The Tropics

Currently TD 2 has max sustained winds of 35 mph, a central pressure of 1007 mb and is tracking northwest at 3 mph.

Looking at the satellite image, it is a very ragged system.

Right now, shear is fairly low. TD2 has carved out a moist environment in the dry air that surrounds it, but some of the dry air being pulled into the circulation. This should slow down development, but there is a chance TD 2 could become a tropical storm Bertha, later today.

TD 2 is sitting between two areas of high pressure. The location of these ridges is leading to weak steering currents. Which is why TD 2 is moving so slowly. Given the setup TD 2 should move slowly to the west northwest over the next two or three days. This would place TD 2 closing in on the Coast of Louisiana by Wednesday. By Tuesday the mid and upper-level wind pattern will become a little more favorable for some development. As I already said, with the midlevel moisture remaining favorable TD 2 has a chance to become Tropical Storm Bertha later today if not today then on Wednesday. But conditions won’t be super supportive so there is a chance this doesn’t develop into a tropical storm at all. We should see this increase its forward motion in a couple of days. gradual westward bend expected to take it near or over the Texas/Louisiana coast toward Houston by Friday.

Here’s a look at rainfall and surge possibilities