Was this winter's last hurrah?

 

A look at the surface chart, current radar and satellite

High pressure is overhead, but it's drifting east. This is providing chilly conditions with plenty of sunshine and some clouds mixed in.  The lake effect that set up yesterday and last night has fizzled out. But not before dropping several inches of snow underneath the most persistent bands. Other than a few widely isolated snow rain showers today is tranquil.

Compliments of tropical tidbits

Currently the East Coast is sitting under a polar trough, with a monster ridge out west.

These chilly conditions are gonna last for a couple of days. But the temperatures will be progressively warming as we  head towards the weekend. Thursday and into Friday we'll see a chance for rain /snow showers. Later Friday into Saturday morning an area of low pressure will be passing through.  we'll see a warm front lifting through the region allowing a stronger southern flow to direct milder temperatures into the region. With the front there will be a chance for scattered rain and snow showers. On Sunday A cold front will be approaching out of Canada. Ahead of that cold front We will see very mild air move in, as that southwest flow continues. But as the front drops north to south temperatures will drop during the day on Sunday The front will continue to be dropping south and east Sunday overnight into Monday morning. Behind this front we will go back to reality with much cooler temperatures. Along with the drop in temperatures will come the risk for snow and rain showers. High pressure is gonna set up For later Monday into Tuesday . But then But another area of low pressure Will move through on Wednesday bringing back the chance for rain and snow showers. This temperature rollercoaster is typical for this time of year and it is going to continue as we move forward. So when will real spring arrive? 

Yes the Spring Equinox arrives this Friday at 1046AM. But this tug of war between winter and spring is going to continue for a bit longer. 

In yesterday's post I touched on how we're currently in an El Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO) neutral setup. With El Nino looking to be quickly developing, as the pattern evolves I do expect us to be in an official El Nino by the time we reach early summer. But before that, we still have to stay on this rollercoaster, with frequent shifts in temperature.  

We had that sudden stratospheric warming event that occurred earlier this month. We had high pressure sitting over the pole. With the polar vortex split, half over North America and the other half over Asia. This has led to the current generally below average temperatures we are seeing now. There is still plenty of  cold air in the pattern. I expect we're still going to be seeing effects of that sudden stratospheric warming event as we head into at least mid-april. 

Courtesy of tropical tidbits

Over the next few days We're going to see that western ridge expand eastward. Looking at the 24 hour temperature change From Penn state's E. wall We can see temperatures are warming up nicely in the central US. The East Coast is going to be experiencing some of this warmth as we get into the weekend. 

 

The Madden Julian Oscillation  looks like it's going to move from phase 7 into phase 8. Then eventually into phases 1 and phase 2. Closer to the end of March into the 1st week or so of April. This is a sign that during the end of March into April the pattern could become quite active. With the idea that will not completely done with cold air excursions coming out of Canada; that leads to the possibility of perhaps a few more snowstorms over the next few weeks. So I wouldn't be putting away those shovels and snow blowers for now.