This week most of the CONUS is dealing with a zonal flow. So our region is going to be generally milder for the next few days.
The surface chart shows high pressure is nosing in out of the Ohio valley. Satellite and radar is showing away from the Great Lakes most of the region is seeing a lot of sun and is dry; around great lakes they are experiencing clouds and the lake effect has pushed north and is mostly in Canada or out over lake Ontario. If you step out today you will notice the temperatures are a bit milder than they have been.
The region has been so cold So long, that today and tomorrow it's gonna feel like beach weather. But in actuality these temperatures are considered seasonal across the region for this time of year. Wednesday the high pressure is going to be moving off shore.
Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front a strong southwest flow means temperatures are going to finely climb to above average. But these warm temperatures aren't going to stick around for long.
Image credit tropical tidbits
Rain is going to start late Thursday afternoon and work it's way west to east Thursday night into Friday morning. Don't be surprised if there are some embedded thunderstorms as well. This is gonna be a fast moving system so it'll be pushing out of most of the region Friday morning into the early afternoon. With Maine dealing with the rain during the day, with rain ending Friday evening. General rainfall amounts across the region will be 0.5" - 1 .0". But there could be localized lower amounts of maybe around 0.25" and localized higher amounts that get up around 1.5" to 2 .0". The mild conditions along with the rain will lead to snow melt. While I don't expect a lot of flooding; there could end up being some ponding on the roadways or even some minor street and urban flooding due to clogged storm drains. Another thing to keep in mind is the possibility of heavy localized fog due to the melting snow.
The one thing we have to be on the lookout for Strong winds that could even be damaging in some areas. Winds of 10 to 20 miles an hour with wind gust of 30-50 miles an hour and localized wind gust of maybe as much as 60-65 mph will be possible. Behind the cold front Temperatures are going to plunge. With the wet roads black ice is gonna be a concern, as temperatures freefall.
It will continue to be windy on Friday; along with a chance for a few snow showers and or flurries away from the Great Lakes. Those around the great lakes would be dealing with more lake effect that could drop several inches of snow. Saturday Is looking like a more in the way of a tranquil day but lake effect will continue to be an issue for those downwind of the big lakes.
Sunday we will see another clipper move across Canada. This will drive another cold front allowing temperatures to once again get very cold Sunday night and Monday. With the front there will be a chance for a few snow showers and flurries. Then on Tuesday a stronger cold front comes through bringing snow showers and or rain showers.
For Christmas week
A large part of New York State; as well as northern and central New England Will continue to see shots of cold air Scooting across the region. Bought for Pennsylvania Maryland Maryland Delaware, New Jersey And into southern New England temperatures will average a little warmer, as you will be closer to that southern ridge. It's not going to be what I would consider a blowtorch. But it will be warm enough for rain or a mix. There is a good chance that y'all who do not have a deeper snow pack are going to lose most or all of your snow I would say this would be a specially true for those who have less than a 6" snow pack
For Monday into Tuesday We will have a cold front bringing a shot of colder air. Then for Tuesday into Wednesday we're going to have another cold front approach and move through. This is going to allow colder air to move into the region. Just after this cold air comes into the region we are going to see a short wave disturbance heading north and east towards our region. How far north does disturbance track is the big question. If it tracks far enough south With the cold air in place There is a good chance for a snowstorm Christmas Eve and or Christmas Day. If the storm track is further north Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic would have less of a chance of seeing snow. So for now, I think A large part of New York State and northern and central New England have a fairly decent shot at seeing some kind of fresh snow on the ground around Christmas Day.
