Friday and a storm on the way.
Here's a look at the surface chart and radar.
Looking at the surface chart and radar we can see high pressure is giving way to the low pressure over the Great Lakes with the leading warm front lifting into the region and the trailing cold front approaching. Ahead of the cold front temperatures are seasonal with winds increasing and they will become gusty later today and tonight. The rain is going to be working its way west to east and steady rain will be making it into central New York and approaching central Pennsylvania mid to late afternoon. The rain will be making it into Eastern New York State into eastern Pennsylvania late this evening into tonight. The rain for work into western New England, Lehigh valley, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey tonight.And then into eastern new England during the overnight. The rain is going to turn over to some snow in the typical higher elevation areas leading to minor accumulations. The steady rain should only last for 2-3 hours before it becomes much more spotty. Lingering rain for Saturday morning but temperatures will rebound and skies will become sunny and dry. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the next seven.
Our next storm.
Here is a look at the GFS 500 mb vorticity chart. Looking at it we can definitely see that upper level low sitting up near Hudson Bay. But we can also see a little disturbance moving out of the Pacific Northwest. Both of these are going to work in tandem for our winter cold event starting Sunday and lasting into Tuesday.
The disturbance in the Pacific Northwest is going to drop south and east. then work its way east and deepen as it heads into the Central Plains. As this is progressing east we're going to see a clipper like storm drop out of Canada, south of the Great Lakes and then turn north and east up into the Northeast and Southeast Canada. The act of disturbance #1 lifting through is going to pull that upper level low in behind the clipper. The upper level low is going to drop south into the Tennessee Valley and then move east to sit over the Carolinas. This is going to cause a huge dip in the jet stream (trough). That's going to drag all of that cold polar and arctic air that has been locked up in Canada into the eastern half of the United States.
For the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic we are going to see an arctic front dropping south and east across our region starting Sunday afternoon. But ahead of that arctic front we are going to see a warm front lift through the region for later Saturday into Sunday This will turn our temperatures fairly mild for this time of year. As the warm front lifts through the region we could see a few scattered rain/mix showers and maybe some high elevation snow showers. Then the arctic front is going to sweep through dragging in very cold air. with widespread rain on the front side of the storm.
The big story with this entire event is going to be the amount of cold air that is pouring into the eastern United States. But winds are also going to be a big deal. I've been talking about both of these things for the last several days and that really hasn't changed enough to say anything more about it. All you all can go back and read about those details in yesterday's and Tuesdays weather post. I've also been talking about accumulating snow. The accumulating snow will be on the back side of the system as the cold air is coming in. This type of event is always difficult to forecast. But this will be primarily elevation driven. The Appalachians, Adirondacks, Greens and Whites will likely pick up a few inches of snow out of this. The Poconos, Catskills and Berkshires could also pick up a bit of accumulating snow. With those lower elevational areas in western Pennsylvania across New York State away from Southeast New York State, Northern New England into northern Massachusetts seeing perhaps a dusting to perhaps an inch or so in spots! I've never said this was going to be a big snow storm for areas away from the lake effect snow belts. I just want to make that clear; so that nobody is disappointed. The areas that are gonna see more in the way of significant snow, will be in the lake effect snow belts on the leeward side of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. For later Monday into Tuesday these areas will see lake effects bands set up, with the possibility of moderate to heavy lake effect snow squalls setting up. These bands should be moving around a little bit. But those who get under the more intense bands could pick up several inches of snow.
I will likely be posting over the weekend. As details become more clear.
While there will be no snowfall accumulation in the I-95 corridor, snowflakes will be possible for Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York City and points into the Coastal Plain
