The extreme heat
has broken for most of us.
This will be
a short post that goes into the general weather pattern for this week.
We’re going
to see strong ridge of high-pressure setup up over the Southwest CONUS. This is
going to force a strong ridge of high pressure over the Western into Central CONUS,
bringing very warm temperatures into that region. This high-pressure ridge will
swell into the Plains by Midmonth. For the Eastern part of the country
including our region, we’re going to see temperatures that are much cooler than
they were last week. This shift west of the heat is going to last through at
least mid-month. So, this will set up a
different pattern. The large part of this week will feature generally seasonal
temperatures with lower humidity. Then as we get toward the weekend into the
first part of next week, we could see cooler than average temperatures set back
up over the region.
As the ridge shifts west most of the severe weather will eventually follow it. But first a part of our region is going to have to deal with a lot of rain, as all that atmospheric moisture gets wrung out of the air. Today into Tuesday rain will be increasing over Pennsylvania and the MidAtlantic Region.
We can see
the frontal boundary on the surface chart. This has basically stalled from New England down into to
Virginia We’re going to see low pressure develop along the boundary tonight and
tomorrow. This will bring the risk for widespread rain across Southern New York
State (mainly south of I-90), Pennsylvania, and the MidAtlantic. north of there
the rain shouldn’t be as widespread.
The severe risk continues to slip south. For today, the SPC has a slight Risk of severe weather is in place with any storm bringing the chance for gusty winds and some heavy rain. Any storm has the potential for heavy rain, there is a risk for localized flash flooding, especially in already saturated spots. The best timing for storms will be this afternoon and evening.
The Severe risk is even farther
south tomorrow as the front sets just to our south. The SPC has a Marginal Risk
for severe weather across southern Maryland (south of DC)
By Tuesday
all the heat and high humidity will be out of the region. The severe risk
should be over, but there is a chance for a rogue strong storm, but the risk
should be south of the region. With the change in the pattern, as we get into
the coming weekend, the rainfall chances should increase over Pennsylvania and
the MidAtlantic Region. At the same time New York State and New England should
stay generally drier.
Over the
next few days Eastern Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, lower Hudson Valley
including New York City, Long Island and Southern New England are at a greater
risk for flooding. These areas could see 2 to near 5 inches of rain.
Here is a
look at the excessive rainfall outlooks for the next 3 days.
That’s it,
have a great Sunday!
