A quick post and discussion.
A large part of November and much of December has experienced a lot of cold weather. Also, for the last 6-8 weeks the pattern has been very active.
Image credit Prison group at Oregon state university
The pattern looks to remain active for at least the next 2-3 weeks. The winter outlook I released a few months ago, so far has been right on the money, In the outlook, I did state that many people were gonna be surprised by how this winter unfolds and I think that has surely been the case For many of y'all . The pattern did relax for a few days heading up to Christmas and during the Christmas holiday. But that pause is now over and we're ready to see the return of the pattern we've been experiencing for the last couple of months.
The cold has been reloading in the Northwest Territories of Canada.
The 850mb chart above Shows the cold air in Northwest Territories and the cold air now sitting over the East Coast of the US. Over the next few to several weeks we are going to see bouts of cold air Drop out of northwest Canada And drop in to the Great Lakes, Northeast and Middle Atlantic.
This week is going to feature a lot of lake effect falling downwind of lake Erie in lake Ontario Those areas in the snow belt that sees the lake snow are going to end up with feet of snow by Friday. Then in between the lake effect event, we are going to have an arctic front drop through on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. The arctic boundary won't extend far enough south to bring a bigger chance for snow to the region but western and northern Pennsylvania, most of New York State and much of new England will have a chance for a general 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. For southern Rhode Island, southern Connecticut, Back to New York City, Long Island, southeastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey there shouldn't be much of anything, except rain.
Behind this system very cold arctic air is going to set up over the region for the weekend into the 1st part of next week. We look to see another clipper dive across southeast Canada next Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a snow mix rain threat to the region. Then starting Wednesday we are going to see a shortwave in the northern stream and a disturbance in the southern stream over the Southwest. Any impacts for our region will depend on the timing between the northern and southern streams. The current pattern setup suggest that disturbance in the southern stream isn't going to end up phasing with the northern stream energy and will end up going out to sea. But if the timing adjust enough there is a chance that the southern storm could end up coming up ahead of the trough bringing some impacts to the Middle Atlantic and parts of the Northeast for next Thursday and Friday. Right now it's a wait and see!. Then we look to have another chance for a complex system to bring snow mix and rain to the region for the following Monday and Tuesday This disturbance will also depend on the timing between the two streams. Both of these systems have a lot of potential we just have to see if it's realized!
That's it for now!
