Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite
Today
We have a
couple of weak cold fronts dropping through the region, with a few isolated
showers over New York State and northern New England. But, high pressure is
building back into the region
Satellite
shows quite a bit of cloudiness over New York State and northern New England,
with everyone else seeing a mix of sun and clouds, with skies becoming mostly
sunny the farther south you are. Winds
are out of the west/northwest bringing in much cooler temperatures than we
enjoyed yesterday, winds are breezy with gust of 15-30 mph.
For the
rest of the week
That high
pressure will be sticking with us over the Halloween weekend, allowing for
cooler seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. Halloween Saturday will
feature plenty of sunshine, with the cool temperatures those doing trick or
treating might have to ware something warmer under their costume, but the lack
of rain will make it nicer than many past Halloweens. Temperatures are going to fall quickly on
Saturday night with clear skies so if you’re doing any late parties make sure
to have a jacket. Don't forget to reset
your clocks on Halloween night, as we fall back an hour, with the changeover to
standard time. The change will mean sunset will be before 5 pm on Sunday.
Sunday will
still be seasonally chilly but it will end up slightly warmer than Saturday
with clear skies.
Monday,
Tuesday into Wednesday look to stay mostly dry, as high pressure will remain
overhead. But a weak disturbance will be moving across Canada on Election
Tuesday, so I can’t rule out a few rain showers, especially across New York
State and northern into central New England. For the first half of next week
temperatures will be recovering and turning milder. Winds will be light and variable so all in all
it won’t be bad at all. Wednesday will see that high pressure starts to push
east as a low-pressure system and a trough approach. Thursday will be our next
chance for rain showers as a warm front approaches and moves through. As the
area of low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes into Canada, a cold front
will move through for Friday into Saturday, providing an even better chance for
rain showers, we will cool down once again behind the front.
For the last
week, I’ve been trying to show how the pattern is adjusting to the rapidly
strengthening El Nino.
I’ve been
talking about the current developing major stratospheric disruption for several
weeks now. But because of that westerly QBO there isn’t a lot of cold air in
Alaska and Northwest Canada. So, while this is an historically early Polar
Vortex split, the QBO will help mute its impact. There is a chance we could see another PV
event later in December. The question is how much will the QBO effect that one.
I do expect the region to cool off somewhat
for the end of November into December, how cold it will be is unclear, but I do
expect to see some snow falling across the Northeast, especially in those
higher elevations of New York State and northern New England. If this El Nino
generally behaves like past strong El Nino’s the pattern will become colder and
snowier for January and February. During this time nor’easters will become an
issue. We could end up seeing quite a
few Miller A and Miller D type nor’easters with a decent chance for a few
Miller B’s thrown in as well. We’re not going to get away from seeing some
Alberta Clippers during the winter. While this Super El Nino will be a dominate
feature, providing overall above average temperature profiles, there is going
to be enough cold air episodes to ensure accumulating snow, as I said in the
Outlook, the major cities in the I-95 will likely end up with above average
snowfall for the season.
