11/24/2025

 The changes I've been talking about are almost here!

Today is rather quiet as a weak trough drops down across the region. On the surface chart We can see the high pressure Centered just to herself over the Virginias.

Regional radar shows only a few isolated snow showers mainly over New York State. Today is going to feature light winds seasonal temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Bought a few Rain showers and higher elevational snow showers will be possible.

But on the infrared satellite image we can see changes are on the way!

The disturbance centered over the Ozarks Is going to head our way. The leading warm front will lift through the region tomorrow followed by the trailing cold front on Wednesday. 

Ahead of that warm front on Tuesday we will see clouds increasing; With rain showers advancing across the region southwest to northeast. As the day goes on winds will be increasing Generally 5-10 miles an hour with gust of 20-25 miles an hour possible. For Wednesday ahead of that cold front Winds could become very gusty With gust of 40-50+ miles an hour possible. It is going to turn very mild for Tuesday and Wednesday. So for Tuesday and Wednesday most of the region will be dealing with just rain showers. The peaks of the high elevations and perhaps northern Maine could see a few snow showers. These rain showers will be more scattered in nature. Neither day will see a wash out.  The  best time for moderate to perhaps briefly heavy rainfall should be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 

Wednesday will start out with lingering rain and a chance for some higher elevation snow showers Then we will get some dry time. Before we watch a line of rain, snow showers with embedded thunder work its way across the region. This will be ahead of the cold front. The winds will remain very strong with gust of 50+ miles an hour quite possible. Behind this cold front We are going to see very cold air move into the region with temperatures plunging Wednesday night into Thursday.

The Lower Great Lakes.

The national weather service has already issued Winter storm watches for areas downwind of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. As we get closer to the event we will see these watches turn to  warnings. We're also likely to see wind advisories and warnings issued as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Image courtesy of pivotal weather

The cold air moving over The great lakes will wake up the lake effect snow machine. Things will likely start out as a rain snow mix, Then changeover to all snow. The lake effect looks to start later Wednesday evening off of Lake Erie. The band off from Erie looks to primarily target the areas just south of Buffalo.  Then on Wednesday night as the cold air filters in we will see lake effect snow start to fall northeast of Lake Ontario up over Jefferson and Saint Lawrence counties off of Lake Ontario. For Thursday We will see Heavier bands of lake effect snow one north of buffalo over the Niagara frontier and another one primarily south of Buffalo. The bands will continue to shift south Into the Southern Tier and Finger lakes during the day. For lake Ontario, During the day on Thursday The lake band looks to be mainly over The northern Tug Hill, Northern Oswego, Northern Lewis and into Jefferson counties. Then on Thursday night this band looks to start to drift south heading over the Tug Hill,  Southern Oswego County and northern Oneida county. On friday the lake bands will be impacting area south and east of Lake Ontario in and around the Syracuse areas and area south and east of Lake Ontario This will also be true for the Southern Tier of New York into northwest Pennsylvania. It's too early for precise snowfall amounts. But snow amounts of  6-12+ inches plus are likely for areas that get under the heaviest parts of the snow bands. For places like the Tug Hill and Chautauqua County off of Lake Erie localized snow amounts in excess of 18" are highly likely.

These lake snow bands will not be confined to just areas closer to the lakes. they are going to extend inland. Bringing accumulating snow to areas away from the lakes.

Black Friday winds will remain blustery, 10-25 mph with gust around 40 mph possible. The vast majority of the region should remain dry and cold, There could be a few flurries or snow showers especially over the higher elevations. But the lake effect will be continuing south and east of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. High pressure is going to build in briefly for Saturday This will provide nicer conditions But it's still going to be quite chilly. The lake effect off in the lakes should die out. The high pressure moves back out for Sunday, as we watch a system with a warm front approach the region. With the warm front we will see a chance for scattered rain showers and higher elevation snow showers. The cold front will come in later on Sunday bringing more chances for rain showers and snow showers. This cold front will quickly exit the region As high pressure will move back in for Monday. We look to see another big shot of cold come in for Tuesday and Wednesday!

That's it for today I will likely do another post tomorrow But likely for Wednesday and Thursday I won't be posting.