I hope everyone had a wonderful and safe thanksgiving!
Here is a look at the current surface chart and regional radar.
We can see the cold front is advancing along with lake effect snow falling downwind of both lakes Erie and Ontario. There is an upper lake connection with Lake Huron and Georgian Bay helping enhance the snow coming off from Erie and especially Ontario. Winds today will be 10-25 miles an hour, With some cost of 40-45 mph. With the cold temperatures and gusty winds The lake effect is tracking well inland. The lake effect is going to continue to fall through tonight with heavy snow continuing under the most intense parts of the bands. The lake snow is going to continue into Saturday morning and then gradually diminish and wane. Away from the lakes there will be a chance for a few scattered snow showers especially in the higher elevations of New York State and northern into central New England. A general 2-4 "Is likely over much of the Greens, Berkshires and White mountains. Elsewhere across much of New York State and New England a coating to possibly a couple inches will be possible. There could be some minor accumulations in the Catskills and Poconos. We have the cold temperatures There's a possibility for spots of black ice So take care when you're driving.
Starting tonight through tomorrow high pressure is going to briefly build in. This would lead to much more sunshine away from the Great Lakes. This high pressure will drift away from the region tomorrow night. Then we're going to see an area of low pressure approaching the region for Sunday.
This winter pattern is going to continue to be active. On top of that, we're going to see waves of cold air continue to come in well into December. These waves are going to continue to reinforce the cold air that was in place before them keeping us very cool to cold for at least the next couple of weeks. This doesn't mean there won't be some warmth Intermixed in with these cold waves. But generally and overall It looks to be cold as we move through at least the 1st half of December.
Looking at the next 5-7 days.
We're looking at back to back storms across the northern tier of the United States. I started talking about these Earlier this week. The second storm is looking much more likely than it was.
Storm # 1
We have a disturbance over the northwest Pacific. This is going to move across the Rockies and exit into the plains heading towards Iowa. We are likely to see a swath of heavy snow on the northern side of this system in the northern Rockies and across the northern Plains. The same will be in store for the Midwest into the Great Lakes as this system cuts over the Great Lakes and tracks into Ontario Canada. Tomorrow there's going to be a lot of snow falling over the Midwest and up over the Great Lakes, Places like northern Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota will see a lot of snow. The heavy snow will shift into Canada as well.
For western Pennsylvania and western into northern New York State A northern into possibly central new England, this will likely start as snow snow mix That as the winds change more to the southerly direction We should warm up enough that this should turn over to rain. These areas will likely end up with a few inches of snow, with several inches of accumulation in the higher elevations, before things switch over to rain. The poconos and Catskills could end up with a light accumulation of perhaps as much as an inch.
Storm #2
This storm is currently sitting up near the Aleutians. This fairly weak piece of energy is going to head for the Pacific Northwest by tomorrow and then drop into the Rockies from here it'll work its way south and east, heading towards Oklahoma and Kansas. At this point we will have a weak disturbance near the Gulf of America with a lot of moisture associated with it.The system that will be heading towards the Ozarks looks to interact with this disturbance and Gulf moisture. This interaction will cause the system to deepen and continue strengthening as it heads north and east towards the Carolinas and or Virginia. By the time it makes it close to the Middle Atlantic It could become fairly potent. After this forms near the Middle Atlantic It will likely travel north and east south and east of New England heading towards the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. This is going to be dragging in plenty of cold air across a large part of our region.
Based on how things look right now . Tuesday and Wednesday this looks to leave heavy plowable snow over Eastern Pennsylvania, the eastern half of New York State and into much of New England. For Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey into New York City and Long Island this will likely be all rain or rain mix, with the heavier snow falling north and west of there, there will still be some snow over western Pennsylvania and western New York State. But the heavier snow should be to their east. These are preliminary thoughts as there is plenty of time for this to change The snow amounts and impacts are going to depend on how this possible storm tracks.
We are going to see high pressure build back in overhead for Thursday and Friday.
