Today is the 1st day of meteorological winter!
The Midwest and Great Lakes was hit hard over the weekend With a lot of snow. Yesterday some of that snow got into northern Pennsylvania and New York state into parts of new England. As that storm continues to pull away today is going to be very cool and fairly tranquil with high pressure sitting overhead. But There are a few light snow showers over parts of the region. This high pressure is going to be very short lived and it is going to start to push east during today into tonight.
On the infrared satellite Image we can see the disturbance that is developing to our west With the northern component moving over the central Plains into the Midwest. and that southern component with the Gulf moisture south of it heading north and east.
I've been talking about this storm development and set up for several days. So I don't think I have to get back into all of that.
For tonight's into tomorrow's Storm.
General timing
The leading edge of snow looks to be starting over western Pennsylvania Monday around 11PM into maybe 1AM on Tuesday. This will continue pushing east during the overnight into Tuesday morning. Reaching central New York State and central Pennsylvania around 3AM to 5AM. The leading edge of the rain and snow Will be pushing into New England, far eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware 6AM to 8AM. The heavier snow will already be falling to the west over New York State and Pennsylvania. Ice accretion could be a big deal for Eastern Maryland, the Appalachians and across up into Northern Maryland and south central and part of southeast Pennsylvania. The snow should be moving into eastern New England around 8AM to 11AM, then the steadier and heavier snow will be working in late morning Into the early afternoon.
As I said yesterday this is going to be a fast moving storm. The northern shortwave which is starting to weaken as it heads our way , and the southern component with all that moisture associated with it. The storm should be pulling away west to east in the afternoon into the evening for Pennsylvania, New York State and the Middle Atlantic. Across most of New England the snow should be winding down Tuesday night. But for Maine the snow won't be winding down until late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Here is a look at what the GFS and HRRR models are thinking as far as snowfall.
General P-type and accumulation.
There should be a sharp cut off on the southern side of the storm. That rain/snow line closer to the coast will also be meandering back and forth a bit.The
These amounts are general. So local amounts could vary, based on where the meso-scale bands possibly set up.
Delaware and central and southern New Jersey down into the Delmarvia Peninsula should be dealing with just a rain mix to rain.
Freezing rain and ice could be an issue for parts of the Appalachians into parts of western Maryland and south east Pennsylvania.
The amounts I posted the other day seem to be basically still looking good (But I did make a few minor tweaks). But areas north and west of the I-95 corridor see more in the way of snow.
For the I-95 corridor from Washington DC to Boston You will be dealing with a wintery mix that results in a trace to 2 inches, This will also include eastern Long Island, southern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.
For southern New Jersey and along the New Jersey Coast up over western Long Island, Southern Rhode Island into the Cape and off-shore islands generally this should be just rain
Across central Massachusetts into much of western Connecticut 2-4 inches of snow is possible The rest of Connecticut not mentioned could see 1-3 inches of snow.
The heaviest impacts still look to be from across northeast Pennsylvania, Northwest New Jersey, southeast New York state including the central Hudson Valley, as well as parts of the Adirondacks, Northwest Connecticut, Much of Massachusetts north and west of Boston especially north and west of the 495, Southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, central into southern Maine. These areas look to see 4-8 inches of snow This will be especially true for areas from the Catskills up into the Berkshires and southern Greens where 10-14 inches of snow is possible.
For northern New York State as well as Northern Vermont, Northern New Hampshire And northern Maine and coastal Maine 1-4 " of snow is possible. For central New York State down into central Pennsylvania 3-6 " of snow is possible. Across western New York State Into western Pennsylvania a general 1-4 inches of snow is possible.
This won't be a blockbuster storm but it is the first regional synoptic snow event that we have seen so far.
Wednesday we'll see high pressure move in overhead providing a fairly nice and quiet day. Turn on Thursday we will see a very strong cold front Roll through Allowing very cold air to move into the region. With this With this we will see widespread snow showers and some snow flurries north of the I-95 with rain snow mix South of the I-95. For the vast majority of us this shouldn't have any major impacts. But there could be some lake effect snow squalls downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario for Thursday afternoon into the evening Before they weaken and taper off Thursday night. Friday shouldn't be too bad. We will see a dip in the jet stream That is going to allow cold air to move in overhead for the weekend. Then we'd be watching a Shortwave disturbance in the northern stream and an area of low pressure in the southern stream for Saturday. How these two interact will have a major impact on if we see widespread snow across the region. Right now it looks like they're not going to phase or at least completely phase So it's looking more like a mixed bag with some snow some mix/ice and some rain. If these two do end up phasing this could be a bigger deal for parts of the region. If this cold air advances into the region faster than anticipated It could even push this storm out to sea. So there's a lot of scenarios that could happen with this. Sunday we will have a weak shortwave trough will work through bringing a chance for some scattered snow showers and a few flurries across much of the region. Then on Monday high pressure builds in with temperatures running very cold.
