Spring fever is here. But is it a false spring?

 current setup

Today is gonna be fairly tranquil The radar shows not a lot going on overhead with just a few very isolated rain showers or snow showers. The surface chart does show a cold front will be moving through tomorrow. With the cold front we will see rain showers moving through the region. There will be a chance for some thunderstorms. So don't be surprised if you hear a  rumble of thunder. The storm protection center does have the risk for some severe storms over the western parts of our region into the central parts of our region. The SPC currently has a Slight Risk for severe storms over western New York State and western Pennsylvania with a Marginal Risk stretching east from there.

Once this moves through It will set the stage for some warmer weather to move into the region

It certainly starting to feel like spring.

Images courtesy of tropical tidbits

But we still have a lot of cold in the pattern up over Canada. That cold is basically going to stay locked up in Canada into next week. Over the weekend We are going to start. warming up. But the real warmth will be for Monday into Wednesday.

Images courtesy tropical tidbits

As we move towards The 14th and 15th of March The pattern does look like it will support colder temperatures moving into the Plains and East Coast. The

Images courtesy of tropical tidbits

Why do I think  this? The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Is in it's neutral phase Which means it's not putting too much influence onto the pattern. Instead other teleconnections like the Madden  Julian Oscillation are having a greater influence  on the overall  pattern

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) currently is in Phase 5 heading for phase 6. Typically during this time of year,  these phases put a  a trough in the west and a ridge in the east. This is going to set up the tropical forcing  in such a way; that we see the warmth move in that is going to be here for several days. But currently the amptitude is low so the MJO influence in those phases will be rather weak; Nevertheless we are going to see  above average temperatures.  But the MIO looks to move into phase 7 and 8 which will promote a  ridge in the west and a trough here in the east. Looking at the diagrams we can see it is forecasted to be at a higher amplitude. Which means the MJO will be exerting more influence than it is currently. This is signaling a return to a pattern that is unsettled, cool and stormy.

The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) is currently neutral.  This is a signal for cold air to move into Canada. At the same time, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is very strongly positive. Typically that's a warm signal. But the polar vortex is rather weak right now. 

Due to the weak nature Of the Polar vortex it will have a wavy appearance And be more Attuned  to bring colder air to the lower latitudes.

For the Northeast  the WPO will help the polar vortex stretch. As that cold air is pouring into Canada it will act as a counter to the NAO. As the pattern evolves We will see troughs move through with waves of cold moving into the northern US. With the southern parts of the United States really starting to warm up This will set the stage for some storminess, with the threat for severe weather outbreaks. The question will be, can one of the short waves in the southern stream interact with these waves to the north enough that we could see a bigger storm try to push ahead and into the Northeast? We really have no way of knowing if we will see a big storm up here or not. but the pattern does support the idea, with better chances for phasing between the streams..

A few weeks ago it looked like the polar vortex would be aimed more at north America But now It looks like the main flux of this will be aimed away from north America. So we are going to see pc of cold move to our region As we see troughs move through the North American pattern. The models are all basically showing the same thing. Here is the GFS courtesy of tropical tidbits.

This shows that we're going to see cool spells and warming spells moving through the next few weeks.  The EURO ensemble shows how the warmth that we're seeing now and into next week is going to fade as we move forward as a cooler pattern moves into the region. These images are courtesy of tropical tidbits.

There is no guarantee that we're going to see any big storms here in our region over the rest of march into the first part of April. But as I just went through, the pattern does support the idea that we could see a big storm. But the odds of seeing a big winter storm is long. As were in that time of year where these storms have to come together perfectly and thread a needle.

The second half of March is definitely going to be overall much cooler than the first half. Will the second half overrule the first half when it comes to overall temperature anomalies for the month? Maybe maybe not, but I am leaning towards the not. But I'm telling you all y'all That we're gonna  be on a temperature rollercoaster with ups and downs and turns and curves. But then again that's typical for spring.