A peek at the longer range
The northern
Jet has been very active; we’ve had a lot of big storms slam into Alaska. There
are signs that the polar vortex is going to become disrupted or even split.
Currently we have a very rare November sudden stratospheric warming event occurring.
Typically, 10-14 days after an SSW cold air drops out of the arctic into the
lower latitudes like the eastern half of the CONUS. In conjunction with this, we’re about to see
the southern subtropical jet become much more active than it has been so far
this season. This is due to the influence of the Super El Nino in the Pacific,
along with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO). All of which I talk about in the
Winter Outlook. As these pieces of energy move across the southern U.S. They
could become entangled with cold air dropping south. The result of all of this likely will led to a
powerful storm right after Halloween during the 1-4 November time frame.
The
zonal-mean zonal wind (i.e., the west-to-east wind averaged across longitudes)
at 10 hPa and 60°N is a common diagnostic of the strength of the Arctic
stratospheric polar vortex.
The EURO and
GFS are in close agreement
The charts show the zonal wind weakening a lot, as we get into November and becoming very weak by the 5th of November. This is a good sign that a PV disruption is about to occur. The models are showing a piece of the vortex moving into Southeast Canada, this could mean the Northeast will get quite cold during the first week of November.
Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite
Today
Is quiet and
tranquil with high pressure in complete control. Temperatures are quite mild
for this time of year. There is a weak
cold front approaching from the north – but it is very moisture starved, other
than some widely isolated rain showers over northern New York State and northern
New England, the vast majority of the region won’t see any rain from it
We can see a couple of frontal systems over the Plains, but as these head our way, they will basically run out of moisture as they weaken.
For the rest of the week
Tomorrow will be cooler than today Wednesday will see temperatures start to warm with plenty of sunshine.
On Thursday
the high pressure will start to exit, leading to a southwest flow that will
allow temperatures to climb quite a bit. We will have another cold front approaching
from the north. This cold front will be weakening as is drops south and east
through the region on Thursday into Friday. Those across the northern half of New York
State and northern into central New England will have the best chance of seeing
more in the way of widespread scattered showers, but many might not see much in
the way of rain. As the front continues to drop across the region rain will become
very isolated for southern New England, southern New York State, Pennsylvania
and the Middle Atlantic. All in all, this won’t be a big deal.
The weather will become beautiful for Thursday, Friday, and Halloween Saturday with plenty of sunshine allowing temperatures to warm, considering the time of year, temperatures won’t be all that bad for trick-or-treating on Halloween!
Remember the clocks fall back this weekend, so remember to set your clocks before you go to bed on Saturday. For Sunday we will have a weak trough hanging around that could lead to a few isolated showers for some of us. Monday high pressure looks to keep conditions nice and mild.
As I talked
about at the start of this post. We’re going to have to keep an eye on things
during the first week of November into the mid part of the month, as there is a
chance for a big pattern change with colder temperatures and the possibility of
a storm for someone.
