It sure feels like the tropics.

This will be a very quick post

Surface chart and radar.

 

We have an upper-level low sitting over the Great Lakes into Canada. The surface chart shows that simi stationary front off to our west.  We also have that strong Bermuda High centered just offshore.  The clockwise circulation around that high is allowing high humidity and tropical moisture off the Southeast Coast and Gulf to move up the Coast.

Radar is showing rain showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of that frontal boundary.

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Slight Risk from around New York City down across Southeast Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey northern Delaware into Maryland. The Marginal Risk is from the NYS Southern Tier, Southwest Connecticut, the rest of Pennsylvania and points south and west.

The risk is there for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. But the risk for damaging winds isn’t the major concern. There is also a risk for frequent lightning and some hail. Winds at the surface are weak and variable, they generally stay that way aloft. With all the humidity in the air, we’re going to be prone to very heavy downpours. Weak winds mean any storms will be slow moving.  So, while a few storms will be capable of damaging wind gust, the real danger is going to be urban and flash flooding.

Here is a look at the NWS Weather Prediction Center excessive rainfall outlook for today and tomorrow. The general pattern looks to continue for next week.

The weekend is looking to be a rinse and repeat. Hazy-Hot-Humid with daily scattered showers and thunderstorms. The weekend won’t be a washout, with plenty of dry time. But showers and storms could pop up anytime.

It won’t be until we get toward the middle of August that this current pattern breaks down!

I encourage y’all to read my two El Nino post. These will be prominent to the weather discussion going forward especially for the winter outlook series starting in October. I will be releasing a part 3 covering the Super El Nino of 2015-2016, sometime over the next couple of weeks.

Part one

Part two

 

Have a great rest of your day!