Our coastal is developing

 

This post will cover possible impacts from the developing nor’easter.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

 

Today is the first full day of Fall.

 

The Upper Level Low (ULL) in the northern jet over the Ohio Valley is starting to interact with the developing coastal low off the Southeast Coast. This interaction is going to increase over the next 36 to 48 hours.

These persistent northeast – east winds over the East Coast are already leading to some tidal flooding issues, this is going to be an increasing issue over the next few days.  Here’s a look at the current NWS watches and advisories courtesy of pivotal weather.

 

Satellite shows the subtropical jet pushing tropical moisture northward. We can also see all the clear to mostly clear skies over a large part of the region due to that strengthening high pressure in the polar jet which is currently over southeast Canada.

We still don’t know the full extent of the interaction between the two lows and that high pressure centered north of Maine. All of this will decide strength and track of this developing Nor’easter. That high pressure is going to act like a block, keeping this from going out to sea.

Based on how things look right now.

Along the Delaware Coast and Jersey Shore extending up over Long Island and Southeast Massachusetts, including Marthas Vinyard and Nantucket. Wind gust of 40-60 mph, potentially reaching hurricane force (especially southeast Massachusetts). Many trees still have their leaves increasing the risk of tree damage and power outages.

1-2 inches of rain is likely for Delaware, New Jersey, far eastern Pennsylvania, Southeast New York State (including the Mid-Hudson Valley, NYC and eastern and central Long Island), western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, southern Vermont, southern and central New Hampshire and southern Maine. Those with the best chance of seeing 2-4 inches of rain will be eastern Long Island, eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, southeast New Hampshire (especially the seacoast), and possibility extreme southern Maine.  For most of eastern Pennsylvania into Central Pennsylvania, eastern into central New York State, northern Vermont, far northern New Hampshire and northern Maine 0.25 to 1.0 inches. Elsewhere it looks like mainly cloudy skies and potential showers.

For today into tomorrow, New Jesey and Delaware will be dealing with increasing winds. The winds across Long Island into New England will become an issue for Friday into Sunday.

There is a good chance for mild to moderate coastal flooding with this nor’easter, as tides start running astronomically higher too.  Seas will be very rough, with big waves building offshore, wave heights of 15 to 20 feet with a pounding surf through the weekend, significant beach erosion is looking likely.

The nor'easter looks to be pulling away on Monday.  

  

Graphics from National Weather Service Mount Holly

 

 

 

Graphics from National Weather Service Boston