Before I get started; I wanted to address a few things. First, I really appreciate all y’all who follow and read my blog post. I try to make it the best I can; it’s listed in 80 Best Weather Blogs to Follow in 2026. All of this leads me to the next thing I want to talk about. That being, while some read the blog post and or take advantage of all the other resources it brings. It needs to grow in viewership. I follow some of the discussion on Socal media, and I see many don’t want to read the blog. I’m not sure why, but I think these people are missing out on a very important and education source about not only the daily weather, but also the broad aspect of weather that impacts our lives. I don’t advertise, I rely on all Y’all to share and pass along not only what is posted, but also the value you get. Again, I want to express my gratitude to all who read and follow the blog, it means so much more to me than I can say. I also what to say thank you to Chuck Lewis, for posting when a new post is on the blog.
Anyway, a
quick post on what’s going on with El Nino.
As the blog
post said, there have been three extreme El Ninno events in the past 50 years.
These were the 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 very strong El Nino’s. The question
is will this current El Nino rival those events or maybe exceed them.
The links to
part 1, part 2 and part 3 are here!
As the
Pacific heats up this summer, the term "super" has grown on some of
the scientists who were uneasy with the word earlier in the summer.
Because this
El Nino is looking to be very strong “super”, people are coming up with a lot of
adjectives to describe it. There using Inconceivable, Monster, Mega, unbelievable,
mind-blowing, devastating and many others.
I’ve avoided
all the extreme hype; sticking to the facts. But the truth is not everything you’re reading
online and hearing in the media is hype. We just have to separate the facts
from the hype.
As I’ve said before, the series compares and contrast the past three Super El Nino’s to this upcoming winter. Are very important to understand. The official multi part Winter Outlook that will start in October will piggyback and build off of them. So having an understanding of what I posted will have make things clearer moving forward.
Current statistics
As of late August, the eastern equatorial
Pacific is generally above 3.0°C warmer than what is considered average.
SST in the
Nino 3.4 region in the equatorial Pacific have been fairly stable and leveled
off over the last couple of weeks, sitting generally around +2.3°C. Currently it
does seem to be climbing again, as of today it’s at +2.351°C.
Image
curtesy of Tropical Tidbits
Officially
El Nino is running +1.8°C
The other Anomalies are at +3.2 °C
The latest
strength forecast.
Latest data
released by the Climate Prediction Center / NCEP on 24 August 2026
We can see the El Nino has slowed down on growing in strength. Does this mean it’s about as strong as it’s going to get. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) does think the El Nino will peak in October or November. . It might not get quite as strong as some think.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center came out with its winter outlook; it does show the general idea I’ve been talking about for the last several months.
There are wildcard
factors that will also impact this coming winter. I talked about some of these
in the other El Nino post. But another is that during very strong El Nino’s we
typically have a supercharged Southern Jet. The northern Pacific isn’t as warm
as it has been in many of the stronger El Nino’s. The temperature contrast
between the very warm equatorial Pacific and the northern Pacific could enhance
that southern jet even more than would be expected. This could have a big influence
on the Southern U.S. As well as the Southeast into the Middle Atlantic.
Here is a
look at snowfall anomalies encompassing the 10 strongest El Nino’s on record.
We can see above average snowfall across the southern half of the U.S, up into
the Middle Atlantic. With below average snowfall across the northern U.S.,
especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast.
We will have
to watch how all of this evolves. But an active and volatile winter is looking
likely!
Let me know what
you think. I will be happy to answer questions.
