Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite
High
pressure is still in control of the local pattern; but that higher pressure is
going to start to slide to the east this afternoon. On the radar we can see the
rain associated with the cold front over the Great Lakes into the Midwest.
Today
After a
crisp start this morning, The southerly flow ahead of the warm front will allow warmer air to move
northward into the region so temperatures are going to recover leading to a
nice afternoon. The increase in humidity is going to wait until tomorrow. Outside of a stray shower today should be
dry. As that cold front gets closer and a shortwave trough will move across eastern Canada; there will be a slightly better chance for rain showers
across northwest Pennsylvania and western into northern New York State tonight
into early Wednesday.
The rest of this week
Tomorrow
will see the warm front continue to push into the region, allowing temperatures
to continue to climb. Dew points will also be climbing for Wednesday and Thursday,
the low pressure in the Great Lakes is going to track toward Hudson Bay. The trailing cold front will approach
Wednesday night, and slide across the region Thursday into Friday morning. Rain
and isolated thunderstorms will be sliding west to east beginning Wednesday
night and continue for Thursday. Rain could be moderate to perhaps heavy at
times. Thunderstorms should be non-severe,
but a couple could be on the stronger side, with gusty winds and heavy rain the
main issue.
The cold
front will be sliding off the Coast on Friday morning, with lingering rain
across eastern New England into the Middle Atlantic Coastal plain. The cold
front is going to push the humidity out of the region for Friday. As high
pressure builds in temperatures are also going to be plummeting as the day goes
on. The high pressure won’t stick around for long
and will be pushing off the Coast on Saturday leading to seasonal to slightly
below average temperatures. A nearby frontal boundary could lead to a few
scattered rain showers. Then later
Saturday and Sunday a warm front will be once again pushing into the region. The front should get hung up over Pennsylvania
so those with the best chance of seeing more in the way of rain will be across
Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic. But if the frontal boundary can
push farther north, the rain will also move north with it. South of the
boundary temperatures will be slightly above average, while those north of the
boundary see seasonal temperatures. The
boundary will continue to push north on Monday, with widespread rain pushing
into New York State and New England. Then on Tuesday a cold front will approach and
move through bringing scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms.
Tropics
We have that
broad area of low pressure continuing to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.
As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center is still giving the disturbance sitting well east-southeast of Bermuda a medium 40% chance of developing within the next 7 days., right now it’s sitting in about the only safe spot in the Atlantic not being disrupted by El Nino. So, there is a short window later this week where it could develop into something subtropical or even tropical. As conditions become more favorable. If it does it will take the name Fay.
News.
The National
Weather Service announced Monday that it is beginning the process of renaming
Lake Ontario to "Lake America" on all of its maps and weather
forecasts. I will likely be saying both names during the next few months, old habits die hard!
