December 20th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

The surface chart shows the Arctic Front approaching from the West, along with an area of low pressure developing off the Coast.  The Clipper to our west will be tracking south and east, where it will transfer its energy to the Coastal Low. The Clipper is moisture starved so it won’t bring a lot of snow with it. Western parts of New York State and northern parts of Pennsylvania could see a general 2 to maybe 4 inches out of this with some seeing as much as 3-6 inches especially in those higher elevations. Those in Southwest Pennsylvania into Western Maryland could see a T to 1 inch.   Those across Central, northern into most of eastern New York State and western Massachusetts and Vermont look to see 1-3 inches of snow. But the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and into the Green Mountains could see 2-4 inches.

The air coming in is going to be very cold, As the Coastal develops and moves north and east toward Atlantic Canada, it will work with this cold and become a powerful nor’easter. But it is enough south and east, to keep its impacts away from much of our region.  But as the cold air moves into the Middle Atlantic and southern and eastern New England it will change rain over to snow. Northern Southeast Pennsylvania (including Philadelphia, New Jersey into New York City, and far western Connecticut could see 1-maybe 2 inches. Central Connecticut into Central Massachusetts a T to an inch is likely but there could be upwards of 2 inches in the higher hills. Eastern Massachusetts (including Boston) 1 to maybe 3 inches is possible, but Southeast Massachusetts including the Cape and Offshore Islands 2-4 inches with a chance for locally higher amounts. For New Hampshire and western Maine a T to an Inch or so is likely, Eastern Maine could see 1-3 with Down East Maine seeing 3-6 inches.

The storm will be pulling away tomorrow, heading into the Canadian Maritimes, where it will bring blizzard conditions.

As the storm pulls away it will allow winds to switch to the Northwest, winds will be come gusty, with gust of 20-30 mph. This will make the Arctic air feel even colder, it will also allow for Lake Effect snow bands to setup Southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.  Those under the most persistent bands could see 3-6 inches with pockets of higher amounts possible.

Over the Weekend into Monday a series of troughs will move through keeping things a bit unsettled, with a chance for a few snow showers and flurries.  

Saturday night and Sunday strong high pressure will move in from Canada. This will shut down the lake effect, winds will diminish, but temperatures will drop even more. Northern areas could struggle to get into the teens, while places like Washington DC end up in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.

Monday continues with the Cold, with light and variable winds. For Christmas Eve, a weak system will approach and move through, this will bring light snow showers to parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern and Central New England. Those south of there will likely see a mix. The best chance for any accumulation will be over the interior. Christmas Day, the system should be exiting with clearing developing west to east.