Looking at the surface chart radar and satellite We can see a couple of shortwave troughs moving over the area and areas away from the Great Lakes is seen mainly a mix of sun and clouds and will be mostly dry. Lake effect snow is falling downwind of lake Ontario, With some weaker bands coming off of lake Erie. Winds are still gusty today And we're seeing cold temperatures But they're not as cold as it was yesterday. These lake bands will sit in place today. Then this evening into tonight These bands will drift northward as the wind direction changes. This current session of lake effect should end tonight.
Tomorrow we're going to have another clipper approach and move over the region
This clipper Will have a warm front lifting and followed by a cold front. Scattered snow showers Could a company the warm front And then when the arctic front comes through we could see a squall line develop moving across New York State. For most of New York state into northern and central New England 1-3 inches of general snowfall is likely.
Weak lake effect will develop off lake Erie north of buffalo this evening. Off of lake Ontario widespread weak lake effect will develop Saturday morning. During the day tomorrow The lake effect off of Erie will drop down through buffalo and head for the South Towns and ski country into the finger lakes. The lake Ontario band will lift north consolidate and set up over northern Oswego into northern and central Lewis and south Jefferson into Saint Lawrence counties. Bands off both lakes will become quite intense; under the heaviest parts of these bands snow rates of 3-4 inches an hour will be possible. Off of lake Erie Saturday into Sunday a foot and a half to two feet of snow will be possible south of buffalo. While east of lake Ontario especially the Tug Hill will end up with 2-3 + feet by Sunday afternoon, along the edge of the main lake band and into the western Adirondacks 6-12+ " or so will be possible Then around the edge of that zone 3-6 inches of snow. For the rest of the region conditions shouldn't be too bad.
We have a disturbance sitting over northwest Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba into southern Nunavut. This is going to ride the ridge down into the northern tier of the United States where it will move over the upper Great Lakes and then head towards the Ohio Valley. Then we will see this redevelop off the New Jersey coast. The last couple of days I have been talking about a ridge out west. And how it will help enhance the jet and jet streak over the Middle Atlantic into southern New England. I also said that the progressive nature of the pattern means this will be a positive tilted trough that won't allow this low pressure to dig in. So it will quickly move out to sea.
This won't be a blockbuster storm, It's a fast mover with a sharp cut off on the north and southern sides of the snow shield. But it will bring 1-4 inches of snow to the I-95 Corridor for Washington DC and New York City along with eastern Long Island. This 1-4 inches of snow will also encompass northern New Jersey, southeast New York State (Lower Hudson valley), most of Connecticut, northern Rhode Island into southeast Massachusetts including the cape and offshore islands. There could be an area of higher snow amounts of 3 to maybe 6 inches of snow across northeast Maryland, northern Delaware into southeast Pennsylvania these areas would include Philadelphia and Baltimore, Southern into central New Jersey, western Long Island, Southeast Connecticut into southern Rhode Island. Most of Massachusetts including Boston extending over into the central Hudson Valley and Capital District of New York State, into northeast Pennsylvania (Including the Poconos and Catskills) as well as part of southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire will see a coating to one inch of snow. Near and along the southern coast of Maine there could be an accumulation of less than an inch of snow. Outside of these areas away from the Great Lakes there will be a few snow showers and or flurries. The storm will quickly be exiting by later Sunday afternoon
Monday we will see a weak trough move through bringing a chance for a few rain snow showers and flurries. Monday is going to continue to be quite cold. On Tuesday another little weak trough will move through again bringing a chance for a few snow showers or flurries along with the possibility of some lake enhanced stuff coming off from the Great Lakes. Tuesday we'll see the temperatures warming up a little bit But it's still gonna be quite chilly. Wednesday high pressure will start to exit the region This will set up a southernly flow which will turn our temperatures milder. Thursday we will see a system coming out of the Midwest and Great Lakes ahead of the warm front we are going to have a southwest flow that's going to become quite gusty this will drive our temperatures even higher and they will likely be above average for this point in the season. With the warm front we will see widespread rain across the region. Then for later Thursday into Friday the cold front is going to swing through and temperatures are going to plummet. Rain will change over to widespread snow.
.
