Today is certainly very mild!
Today is gonna feature periods of rain with well above average temperatures for many of us, but not all. It's going to be windy for the next few days.
The surface chart and radar show the low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes with the leading warm front and the trailing cold front. The surface chart Is also showing an upper level low near Colorado and Oklahoma. This is going to swing through and head our way tomorrow. We're going to have the cold front come through into northern New York state and northern and central New England. These areas will see rain change over to winterly precipitation of some snow and mix. While the rest of the region stays primarily rain, But there could be some mix of sleet and or freezing rain in higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos..
This system is going to bring an end to our January thought and temperatures will become quite cold again for Sunday into next week. Sunday we will have a system to our north That could bring some snow to parts of New York State and New England. Then on Monday The region looks to be fairly dry and tranquil as high pressure sets up. Tuesday the high pressure will still be around But it will be starting to shift east ahead of another system approaching from the west. This system will bring a chance for some snow, mix and rain for the region. Then on Wednesday we will see a Arctic front moving through the region. This front and a dip in the jet stream is going to set in the stage for a possible storm for the end of the week!
The Madden Julian oscillation MJO and other teleconnections are showing the demise of La Nina. As la Nina continues to quickly fade We are going to see the southern jet become enhanced and more active! Along with this we are going to see the Polar vortex weaken. This is going to set the stage for the cold second half of January I've been talking about for quite some time. The pattern that's developing is going to be favorable For snowstorms here in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic.
Could we see a storm next Thursday into Friday?
We're going to see a big dip in the jet stream.
The northern component will be up in eastern Canada. As the trough swings in on Thursday We are going to have a piece of southern energy Along the southern edge Of the trough. As I said the other day Timing is going to play a big factor in what happens. Depending on the trough axis position this might go out to sea or it could come up the coast. A third piece of energy dropping out of central Canada into the northern plains Is going to have a say and how does possible coastal storm tracks.
GFS
ECMWF
If the trough becomes neutral or negatively tilted and the southern storm can get ahead of the trough axis It would come up the coast. But that 3rd piece of energy in the northern plains could act as a kicker and send this out to sea!
The Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic is looking cold enough to support snow. The pattern is as such That this will either Bring in closer to the coast Like the GFS is saying or it's going to be a near miss like the Euro is showing. Right now this could still go either way. But the models are trending towards a snowstorm. That 3rd piece of energy that I've been talking about does have the potential of creating some kind of snowstorm for Sunday into Monday. So the pattern has potential And we just have to see how things shake out.
Have a great weekend!
