The heat cranks up this week!

The big weather story this week will be the heat.  

We have a strengthening upper-level ridge developing, this is going to bring dangerous heat over the Plains and Midwest today. This will expand eastward through the upcoming week, By Wednesday our region will be dealing with increasingly oppressive heat and humidity ahead of the 4^th of July weekend.

This post will give an overview of what to expect this week, as well as touch on the Tropics 

Surface chart and Radar

 

We will see the heat dome build into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians into the Southeast on Monday. During Monday, the Northeast will start to see the heat increase, but the humidity will be trailing a bit. Late Monday into Tuesday a warm front will be pushing into the region, ahead and along the frontal boundary there is going to be rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms. 

Behind the front on Tuesday the heat and higher humidity will be working in tandem, as that stubborn ridge of high pressure becomes established across the eastern half of the country.  

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

By Wednesday the higher heat and humidity will be over much of New England. We can expect days of high heat and high humidity.  During the week the region as a whole is going to experience its first widespread heatwave.  As that stubborn ridge of high pressure becomes established across the eastern half of the country.  This set up will bring days of high heat and high humidity.  The hot and humid conditions will be in full swing across the region by Wednesday through Friday. Much of the region will be seeing widespread temperatures into the upper 80s to low 100s, combined with high dewpoints in the Mid 60’s to mid-70’s, will result in heat indices approaching or exceeding 100-110 in many places. There will be no real relief at night with the warmth remaining and high humidity sticking around.

Here’s a look at the heat index forecast from the NWS.

 

Each day will also see the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. (this will be especially true for Wednesday and Thursday) But they shouldn’t be widespread. These could pop up anytime. But don’t expect any real relief from the heat as humidity levels will remain high during the event.

On Friday we should start to see this ridge begin to break down, as cold pockets over Alaska and the Northwest Territories start to exert influence on the North American jet stream pattern.  but that would also support an increased risk for showers and thunderstorms here in our region. The coolest weather during the holiday weekend will be over upstate New York and New England, with highs mainly ranging from the 70s to the low 80s F.  The rest of the region will still be dealing with high heat and humidity that will continue into Monday as the heat dome slowly pulls back to the west.  

As I’ve said a few times, we’re likely to see complexes of thunderstorms will rotate around the rim of the heat domes clockwise flow. These could result in an active pattern with severe weather for much of the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic. I’m really concurred about the possibility of severe weather as the dome breaks down.  We very well could see some Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) or even a Derecho.  Another thing that could be an issue will be smoke from the wildfires in the western U.S. If this drifts over to the east, air quantity would be impacting, further aggravating breathing issues.     

 Record highs are currently possible for Tuesday into Friday. This is dangerous heat, especially for those without proper hydration and cooling.

Tips for staying cool during this heat

During extreme heat, it is important to stay hydrated. Make sure to drink water frequently and take breaks indoors or in shaded areas if working outside.

Check on neighbors, friends and family who may be in vulnerable populations, such as older adults or those with chronic medical conditions, to ensure they are taking proper precautions.

Wear sunscreen and loose-fitting, light-colored clothing.

Don't leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Temperatures can reach deadly levels within minutes.

Do activities outdoors in the early mornings or evenings if possible. Temperatures are typically at the highest between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m.

Reduce electric usage during peak times of day to limit the strain on power grids. Run appliances like dishwashers, washers and dryers after 8 p.m., if possible. Increasing the thermostat by a degree or two can also reduce usage.

The Tropical Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking four tropical waves

 

There is going to be a stalled-out front associated with the developing heat dome We’re likely to see a broad area of low pressure develop along this stationary front.

 

We can see that area between the Carolinas and Bermuda that is marked in yellow. The NHC indicates a LOW (20%) probability for tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days. 

If something can try to develop, it would retrograde southwest towards the Georgia and the Carolinas coastlines, from here it could drift down toward Florida and Bahamas.  This would hang around that old front and could possibly try to become a subtropical or tropical depression due to the warm water off the Coast. Over the next couple of days conditions are going to become somewhat conducive for development. This could allow for some slow development. If development does indeed occur, it would likely be toward the end of the week.  As I said the other day, I don’t think this is going to become anything of note. The models are starting to back away for this developing into a subtropical or tropical storm. So, for now we just watch.

Enjoy your Sunday!