Tranquil today but cold air is on the way!
Surface chart and latest radar
Satellite
The long wave trough continues to move through along with continued shortwave troughs moving across the region. Winds during the day are generally gonna be out of the northwest 5-15 miles an hour and occasionally some higher gust. Today is going to be milder and feature a mix of sun and clouds with a chance for a few isolated rain showers or higher elevational snow showers/flurries. The wind direction means there will be a chance for some limited lake effect snow/rain showers downwind of lake Erie and lake Ontario, but any accumulations should be extremely light. All in all not a bad day for this time of year. All this precipitation should be basically ending by this evening. But winds will start increasing tonight and over the overnight.
For tomorrow morning winds will continue to increase as that low pressure that's sitting up over the Canadian maritimes retrogrades back toward the west, There will also be some high pressure approaching and moving in. Conditions during the day on Saturday should be mainly dry with seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures. But the pressure gradient will be tightening between the Low and high pressure areas, keeping winds gusty.
Saturday evening into Sunday we will be watching a storm system currently exiting the northern Rockies into the plains, approach from the northwest. A warm front will be lifting into and through the region later Saturday into Sunday. Winds will become southwesterly and will be breezy, allowing temperatures to turn even milder, with temperatures being above average for this time of year. With the front there could be some isolated rain and a chance for a few higher elevation snow flurries/showers. There could be a few thunderstorms especially over parts of Pennsylvania. The trailing cold front will be approaching early Sunday morning and moving through on Sunday. Over Pennsylvania and New York State the rain showers should turn over to some low elevation on and off snow showers and higher elevational sleet ice mix and some snow during Sunday with more in the way of snow showers developing over the higher elevations as time goes on. The rain and some ice will be working into western New England By Sunday evening. Then move into eastern New England Sunday night into the overnight. I'm not expecting much ice, but there will be enough of it that driving could be tricky in spots. As the cold front continues to advance into the region. Temperatures are going to plummet during the day. All rain will likely be moving into Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and for southern New England later Saturday evening going into Sunday morning, Then things should start to generally to clear up. Sunday morning Maine and New Hampshire will see snow change over to rain south to north. The rain and snow over Maine should start to lighten up during the afternoon on Sunday. Across northern New York State into Vermont and northern Massachusetts including the Berkshires a general 1-4 inches is likely. The Poconos and Catskills could see limited light accumulations. The Adirondacks, Greens and Whites will have the best chance of seeing the most accumulations with a general 3-8 inches. With the higher peaks in the mountains seeing upwards of around 12 inches. Northern Maine into northern New Hampshire Look to see a general 3-6, with central Maine into central New Hampshire Seeing a general 1-3 inches. The areas that see mainly rain are gonna see rain totals of around 1⁄4 of a inch to 1/2 of an inch.
Off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario lake snow/rain will be developing later in the day becoming stronger on Sunday night, becoming all snow. Areas to be mainly impacted Will be across northwest Pennsylvania, western New York State and East of lake Ontario across northern New York State. The lake effect bands will continue into Monday Those who sit under the heavier and more persistent lake snow bands will likely end up with several inches of snow once again.
Temperatures are going to be very chilly for this time of year. Monday a trough be working through Keeping things a bit unsettled Rain showers and snow higher elevation snow showers. High pressure looks to move in for Tuesday and looks to last through Thursday keeping the weather fairly tranquil but cool. There could be a few lingering snow rain showers Tuesday morning But then things should dry out for a few days. On Friday a warm front will lift into the region allowing temperatures to warm up But this is going to be followed by yet another cold front later Friday and Saturday.
I've been talking about the polar vortex possibly weakening and moving into the lower latitudes as we get further into November Heading into December. It is looking increasingly likely this is going to happen and it looks like The brunt of the cold could move in over the eastern half of the United States. This would allow for a very cold end of November and 1st half of December with the pattern looking to remain active it could become quite snowy during the 1st part of December. This would all tie into what I said in the winter outlook.
