Tropical
Atlantic
As we move toward the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, we’re starting to see signs the Atlantic is trying to wake up. As of today, the National Hurricane Center is identifying three areas to watch for development.
I will start with disturbances 2 and 3
#2
This is being given 2 day and 7-day development odds of 10%. For now, this is a low to moderate area for development. But this won’t last. Upper-level wind shear is going to become less supportive for development, as it heads into an area of higher amount of shear and dust. later in the week. As the approaches the lesser Antilles windshear is going to become very hostile, so this system should completely fall apart.
#3
Meanwhile, we have that broad area of low pressure over the open north Atlantic
north and west of Bermuda, The NHC is giving this a 10% chance for development. This is part of the disturbance that impacted the
southeast CONUS over the weekend. This is moving quickly eastward and will
travel north of Bermuda into a hostile environment. Regardless of development,
it poses no threat to land.
Looking at the wind shear over the Caribbean and Main Development Region, we can see wind shear is quite significant. That shear has to do to a large part to the El Nino pattern I’ve been talking about.
The SSTs in
the northern Caribbean and Gulf are ranging from around 88°F to around 92°F. Out
over the MDR the SST are ranging from 78°F to around 84°F.
Saharan Air Layer
#1
This wave
has a higher chance of development, the NHC is giving this a 2-day chance of 20%
and a 7-day chance of 60%.
There are
two scenarios
it could
move toward the Caribbean where all that shear will likely tear it apart. Or it
could track more north and west, if a weakness develops in the Bermuda High. This
track will keep this wave north of the #2, where there will be more moisture
available in the middle and upper levels for development. This second scenario
IMO is the more likely. If it does take
that track there is a good chance this becomes a tropical depression as we get
into the end of this week. The odds of
this making an impact on the East Coast is quite low, as there will be a
complex ridge/trough setup over the East.
That's it for today!
