Todays post will go over this week’s regional weather and touch on the El Nino and Tropical Storm Andrew
A look at
the surface chart shows,
Looking at the wind direction chart, form Windy. We can see there is a southwest flow is directing warmer temperatures and higher humidity into the region. But we also have a southeast flow into the Middle Atlantic and New England, this is directing a moist more stable air mass into those areas. This is creating a battle between the two air masses over the region. We have a weak warm front lifting into New York State down through Virginia connected to low pressure up over the mid Great Lakes. Then we have another stronger frontal system out to our west. This area of low pressure will head toward the Saint Lawrance Valley tomorrow. The cold front attached to the low pressure move through the region setting off rain showers and thunderstorms.
We have an
MSC (organized thunderstorms) out in the Midwest. This will bring a lot of
severe weather out there in the Midwest Tristate today. It’s quite
possible this MSC evolves into
a derecho. But other than a few isolated stronger thunderstorms across far
western Pennsylvania, the region shouldn’t see any severe storms today.
Here is a
look at the Storm Prediction Centers Day 1 and day 2 severe outlook. The leading warm front will lift through
today and tomorrow morning. With the warm front scattered rain showers and some
rumbles of thunder will move through the region. As the southerly flow
strengthens temperatures are going to become much warmer and humid than they
are today. The timing of all of this increases the risk for severe weather across
eastern New York State, New England into the northern Middle Atlantic. The storm prediction center has these
areas under a Slight Risk for severe weather Severe weather will still be
possible west of there, but it will be more isolated in nature. The storm
prediction center places a Moderate Risk for severe weather over most of the
rest of the region. The storms that form tomorrow, will be capable of strong
damaging winds, heavy downpours, perhaps some hail, and frequent Lightning. The
risk for a tornado is low but not zero. The best time for severe weather will
be noon through 9 or 10 pm. The thunderstorms will be hit and miss so some of y’all
might not see them.
Tomorrow ahead
of the front, we’re going to be dealing with gusty winds. Storms could tap into
that increasing the risk for damaging straight-line winds roll.
The area of
low pressure is going to linger to our north and east for Friday Juneteenth
into Saturday, as the cold front stalls off the Coast. This will keep us
unsettled for Friday and the Father’s Day weekend. The weekend will feature
cooler conditions and isolated rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. But
there is going to be plenty of dry time as well. But the entire weekend will experience breezy
conditions. Sunday night and Monday will
see another frontal system move through bringing widespread rain showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Tuesday will
see high pressure build in providing much better conditions.
El Nino
Another
quick update on the El Nino.
El Nino has arrived,
on June 11, NOAA officially announced that El Nino conditions had developed in
the tropical Pacific. Waters in a zone of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean
near the equator have warmed to more than 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9°F) above
average.
As I’ve said
many times, The El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO is a periodic climate cycle
originating in the equatorial Pacific that has an influence on weather across
the entire globe. It goes through three distinct phases: El Nino (the warm
phase), La Nina (the cool phase), and ENSO-Neutral. It swings between the two
main phases on an irregular basis, typically every two to seven years.
El Nino is
favored to persist through the upcoming 2026-27 Northern Hemisphere winter
2026-27. It also is looking to be a strong to very strong El Nino
There is a
chance this year’s El Nino could rival
or surpass the strongest El Nino in intensity on record, that would be the
1877–1878 event.
As the El
Nino intensifies it is going to cause our region to become more and more unsettled
for the summer. We’re going to continue to see these cold fronts with the
threat for rain showers and thunderstorms for the rest of this summer.
Tropical
Storm Arthur
The first
named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
The NHC has
Arthur having max sustained winds of 45 mph with a central pressure of 1000mb. He
is tracking northeast at 9 mph.
I’m very surprised
that this has become a tropical storm, he has just been hugging the coast and
he has been very disorganized.
This does show up in the satellite image. Most of the convection (strong thunderstorm activity) is displaced to the south and east of the center. But I don’t call the shots.
Arthur is going to bring a lot of rain, another 3-6 inches with locally higher amounts of rain is likely, this is in addition to all the rain that has already fallen.
That's it
