I know some of y’all have seen below average snow totals for this point in the season, while others, especially near the Great Lakes have seen well above average amounts. The pattern so far this winter has favored Clippers; with the southern jet suppressed well to the south. Which has basically resulted in less snow opportunities for parts of the Hudson Valley, down into the Middle Atlantic and over New England. But this pattern is now changing. So, over the next few weeks these areas could see more in the way of storminess.
I’ve been talking
about the brutal cold and Sunday into Monday storm for a while now. This post
will go into some detail for Sunday’s storm. Today and tomorrow is going be
seasonally mild through tomorrow.
The setup
and first thoughts on possible amounts.
The persistent
low pressure that’s been hanging out over Atlantic Canada, has finely pushed
east. We now have a trough in the northern polar jet dropping into the Upper
Plains and northern Rockies. This is the beginning of the cold air we’re going
to be dealing with next week. The Cross Polar Flow is going to mean a true
arctic airmass out of Siberia will end up overhead. As this trough drops down
toward the Gulf Coast. It will interact with that southern subtropical jet. This will allow for the cold dry air to
interact with the warm moist air. With that upper level low out in the Atlantic,
nothing is going to keep this from developing and moving up the Eastern
Seaboard. Saturday night into Sunday the
polar and subtropical jets are going to phase. This will result in low pressure
forming and moving up the coast, the setup supports this strengthening into a
moderate nor’easter. The lack of any
blocking means this will be a very fast storm, which will help limit the amount
of snow that will fall.
Central
Pennsylvania, up around Albany into far southern Vermont 1-2 inches of snow is
possible.
Far southern
New Jersey into southern Maryland and southern Delaware 1-3 inches. Is possible
this area could see some mixing as well.
For most of
eastern Maryland, including Washington DC and Baltimore 3-6 inches of snow is
possible, this zone would extend up through part of Northeast Pennsylvania up
across the middle Hudson Valley and across much of northern Massachusetts.,
For the I-95
Corridor north and east of Baltimore, Philadelphia, up through New York City,
Providence and Boston could see 4-8 inches with a few localized higher amounts, this would
include southeast Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey, Southeast New York State,
including Long Island, most of Connecticut, Rhode Island and southern/southeast
Massachusetts including the Cape and Offshore Islands.
Based on how things look right now this looks to be too far south and east to allow much if any snow across western Pennsylvania, most of New York State and northern New England. But any change in track could change this.
Timing will be between the afternoon into the overnight. with the storm pulling away Monday morning.
The airmass
next week is going to be the coldest we’ve see in several years, so keep that
in mind if you’re going to be outside.
