We have the high-pressure
heat ridge that was in the Plains, is building back to the west. From Texas
into the far Southwest, it is going to continue to be very hot and dry. Disturbances
are going to form north of the ridge and drop into the Northern Plains into
the Tennessee Vally. The flow will also drive drier air into the Southeast. For
up here in the Northeast, it’s going to be the opposite, with cool conditions.
As we deal with low pressure sitting over the Hudson Bay bringing deep
troughing over the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Region.
Here is a
look at the 500mb showing the general look of the overall pattern.
The
Northeast and Middle Atlantic is going to continue to be active this week, as we
deal with a series of shortwave troughs and frontal systems, as the rotate
around the low pressure to the north, this will keep us unsettled.
Surface
Chart and radar
Today
That area of
low-pressure that was in the Gulf of Maine is now impacting the Canadian
Maritimes, the primary surface low pressure in leaving the Great Lakes heading
into Canada. With a cold front moving through. This front is in the process of stalling and as the
chart shows it is occluding, So, we’re dealing with below average temperatures,
and it’s wet across the Northeast. Along with the rain showers, there will be
some thunderstorms, some of these storms could be strong to severe. With damaging
gusty winds, heavy rain, and hail. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal
Risk for a large part of the region.
Out ahead of
the warm front moving through New England, temperatures and dew points are
higher, there will be the chance for showers that could be heavy, particularly
for Connecticut, Rhode Island, southeastern and western Massachusetts.
Behind the cold
front cooler and drier air will drop in from Canada.
Tomorrow
We will see rain showers and thunderstorms over northern New York State and New England, some of these could be strong to severe, especially over Maine, where the SPC has a Marginal risk.
Across the region it will feel very fall-like, Winds will be gusty once again. Right now, the southern Half of New York State and Southern New England look to be mainly dry. For Most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, there will be increasing sun and things generally look dry.
For a large
part of the region, Wednesday is looking to be dry and tranquil. Temperatures
will slowly start to climb.
Rest of
the week
Past
Wednesday we’re going to see a series of disturbances move through, so it will
be unsettled with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be climbing.
By next weekend, the Southwest ridge is going to start to move east, with a deep trough building into the Pacific Northwest.
The tropical Atlantic.
Last Thursday marked the unofficial start of the most active
part of the Atlantic hurricane season. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane
season occurs in early to mid‑September, with September 10
identified as the climatological peak. Nearly two-thirds of all activity
happens between now and October.
There are three areas to watch out in the Atlantic Basin.
The first area to watch is located in the central Atlantic.
The first area is a non-tropical system near Portugal that
is producing strong winds, but there isn't any chance this becomes a tropical system. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving
this 2 day and 7-day odds of 0%
The third area is a strong tropical wave that will be
rolling off the West Coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic tomorrow. The NHC is giving the wave moderate odds to
develop into a tropical depression, with the 7-day odds at 50%
Once in the Atlantic, the wave will face its share of
atmospheric hostility, wind shear is still impacting the eastern Atlantic, but
it is more favorable over the western Atlantic. But there is still high shear in the Caribbean and Gulf. As this approaches the leeward and windward
Islands it looks to stay north and east of there, this would allow it to track
toward more favorable conditions. So, there is a window for this to develop
into a Tropical Storm or even the first Hurricane of the season. If this survives to get into the western
Atlantic Basin, it looks to stay away from the Bahamas and East Coast, but that
could change. Bermuda and the Atlantic region of Canada would have a greater
chance of having some at least some impacts.
Right now, it’s really too early to know for sure if this survives and
where it will exactly track.
The next name on the list is Dolly.
