Surface
chart and radar.
We have that
cold front dropping across the northern part of the region; we do have a few rain
showers ahead of it over New York State. During the afternoon there will a chance
of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern New York State and
northern New England. behind the cold
front gusty northwest winds with gust upwards of 30 mph, will clear the
humidity out across northern half of New York State and northern New England.
While the
heat will lessen and slowly ease back over the northern part of the region. The heat dome is going
to be in full effect over central and southern parts of the region. On the surface chart we can see high pressure
is centered over the Virginias. This cold front is going to continue to drop
south and east today. Along this boundary there will be the slight chance for
some isolated showers and rogue thunderstorms, but most of Y’all won’t see any
rain. Those that do will have the chance for very heavy downpours.
The northwest
flow is going to drag Wildfire Smoke out of Canada into the region. Due to this
there are Air Quality Alerts over parts of the region. Most of the region is in the Moderate range. Which
means the very young and those with preexisting respiratory problems should limit
their time outdoors. But across Central New York State into the twin tiers of
NYS and PA and extending across Central New England the air is rated unhealthy
for anyone outside.
Thursday we’re going to see another cold front drop in. This trend of frequent cold fronts dropping through the region every day is going to slowly erode the heat, as the heat dome retreats back to the west. As the dome slides back toward the Plains, are chances for scattered rain and thunderstorms will increase. Each day from Thursday into Sunday. During this time there will be the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms, with strong gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning and very heavy downpours. This will be especially true for Saturday as a warm front lifts into the region followed by a cold front later in the day. So, Saturday will be very unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. The cold front and trough will be lingering around for Sunday, again with scattered showers and some thunderstorms. None of the days should be a washout, but rain could pop up anywhere. Wildfire smoke will continue to cause hazy skies and air quality issues.
Tropical
As I
mentioned a few days ago, we would have to watch the Northwest Gulf for
something trying to develop. Today the National Hurricane Center’s tropical
weather outlook is showing an area of yellow. The NHC is giving this a 20%
chance of tropical development over the next 7 days.
A front is going to leave a bit of moisture near the Big Bend of Florida. With the very warm sea surface temperatures. There is a chance that a little disturbance out of the Straits of Florida, could tie into this and maybe start to develop something this weekend. Overall conditions will make any development difficult. Due to moderate to at times strong wind shear caused by a weakening upper-level low that will be nearby this weekend. Depending on how everything interacts, this could continue to move across northeast Florida and then move along the Coast of Georgia and the Carolinas. But there is also a slight chance this could track back to the west heading for the Central Gulf. If this does occur it very well could develop into a tropical entity. If it tries to come up the East Coast it could be assisted by the jet, to become something Subtropical. But it will also have to deal with some dry air should this up the coast scenario occurs. Regardless of development this will bring needed rainfall, starting along the northeastern Gulf and Florida. As I’ve been saying we’re going to have to see if any of this tropical moisture tries to make it into our region during the first part of next week. This is going to be something to watch. There is another wave that came off the West Coast of Africa. The NHC has a 10% chance of development on this. But as this continues to push into the Atlantic conditions are going to become unfavorable for development.
Monday, we look to have high pressure overhead, providing mostly dry conditions, with seasonal temperatures. Then another cold front will be approaching for Tuesday. If the Gulf system does move up the East Coast, it would likely interact with this cold front as it moves across the region. Increasing the chance for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms. It’s all going to come down to timing. The cold front should sweep this out of here during Wednesday. The rest of next week will likely see average to below average temperatures across the region.
Have a nice day.
