08/11/2025

On the surface chart High pressure over the East Coast.  This will allow for a southern and southwest flow that should bring plenty of heat And overall Tranquil conditions. Current radar shows dry conditions over the region.

The next couple of days should stay not with near record to record heat, Allowing the entire region to experience a heat wave. The humidity is down a little bit today But it will come back for tomorrow and Wednesday. Today and tomorrow will stay generally dry with a chance for some isolated showers and rogue thunderstorms.

We do have that cold front to our west. On the infrared satellite we can clearly see the disturbance associated with the cold front. 

A prefrontal trough will be approaching the region tomorrow This could set off a few isolated showers or thunderstorms across part of New York state into Pennsylvania tomorrow afternoon into the evening. But the vast majority of y'all should stay dry. The Pre frontal trial will continue to move across the region on Wednesday again bringing the risk for some rain showers and thunderstorms into New England and the northern middle Atlantic region. The approaching cold front Into New York state and Pennsylvania on Wednesday New York State and Pennsylvania will see more in the way of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could be strong to severe. The best timing for thunderstorm will be during the afternoon into the evening. Thunderstorms could be capable of some strong gusty winds and localized heavy downpours. The cold front will be moving over New England Eastern Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. Again some of these storms could be strong too severe, With the risk of strong gusty winds and locally heavy downpours.

Behind the cold front We will lose The high temperatures and humidity for Friday into Saturday. But over the coming weekend temperatures and humidity will start to climb. Overall Friday and Saturday is looking to be dry, but any lake or sea breezes could set off some isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. On Sunday We will have a cold front approaching from the west and north This will likely bring widespread scattered rain showers and thunderstorms into New York State and northwest Pennsylvania during the afternoon into the evening. This cold front will continue to move over New England, rest of Pennsylvania and northern Middle Atlantic  Sunday night into Monday bringing widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe.

The tropics

We do have a few areas that are being monitored in the Atlantic basin The 1st and 2nd are Invest 96L and another area to its north and west Both both of these have a 10% chance of development and I don't expect much out of them

Erin

As I said yesterday Invest 97L is in a low shear environment and over very warm water along  with having quite a bit of moisture around it. This has allowed 97L to become quite organized and it became Tropical Storm Erin. Erin late this morning. She looks fairly impressive on satellite.

Currently Erin has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb, generally tracking west at around 18 mph-20 mph. She is a relatively small tropical storm.

I have no doubt Erin Is going to become a hurricane and eventually a major hurricane.  Currently the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warning cone is showing the same general idea.

For the next few days Erin should generally stay on its current track due to that strong area of high pressure to its north. She will be dealing with a little bit of dry air But her small size Should help her shrug off the dry air. Wind shear is going to remain very favorable over the next few days.  But as we get close to the weekend, the blocking high should push a little further east this along with high pressure sitting in the gulf of America, will create a weakness, that will give Erin a window to start to turn north and west. This should mean that she will pass north of the Leeward Islands, later Friday or Saturday. Generally moving between Puerto Rico and Bermuda. There is a chance that Erin could try to track between the Bahamas and Bermuda, But it's just too soon to know for sure. Model guidance Is showing fairly tight agreement for the next 4-5 days 

After that the guidance becomes much more broad in nature and there's a lot of variance in the possible track. It is too early to know what exact threat Erin poses to the United States. A US landfall Will depend on the trough configuration over the eastern US. So While Erin will be approaching the United States it is unsure if she will make a landfall or just pass close and recurve back out to sea. At this time we shouldn't panic, Just prepare, Just in case.