08/07/2025

 I have a lot of personal stuff going on tomorrow, so I will not be posting anything on Thursday. But I decided to post something tonight For the next 6-7 days So everyone can stay informed as to my latest thinking.

Over the last several days, the region has been enjoying summertime warmth with low humidity. But that will be changing soon.

The Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic region have also been experiencing mostly dry conditions for the better part of a week now. But a few places have seen some rain, with the slow moving nature of some of the thunderstorms  resulting in quite a bit of rain falling in very localized areas. But generally the region is becoming dry.

Thursday's Surface chart

Thursday air quality forecast from air now.

This dome of high pressure that's resulted in all this; Is going to continue for the next few days. Temperatures and humidity will gradually be increasing over the next couple of days. The wildfire smoke from north central Canada is also going to continue to be an issue, as this general zonal pattern and wind flow keeps bringing it into the region. Over the weekend The high pressure will start to drift off shore. This will change the flow from the onshore we're experiencing now to a southern and southwest flow. This should lead to the overall general smoke conditions starting to improve slowly. The weekend flow is also going to allow for it to be hot, humid and mostly dry with only a chance for a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. The same setup should continue for Monday into Tuesday as well.

Tuesday we will watch a system with a warm and cold front attached approach the region. Out ahead of the cold front the heat building into the Midwest will be advancing our way. Temperatures will become very warm and humidity will become oppressive. Rain showers and thunderstorms working their way east, should start to develop later Tuesday afternoon over western parts of New York State and Pennsylvania. These will be slowly moving east across New York State and Pennsylvania into the evening. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe with the danger of strong damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with a chance for localized flooding. The cold front will continue to move across the region on Wednesday with the threat for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms continuing, again some of these storms could be strong to severe. Thursday should be cooler and much less humid. The cold front should also help sweep the Canadian wildfire smoke finally out of here.

A quick  look at the tropics 

Yes we still have Tropical Storm Dexter out in the Atlantic; but due to the fact that it is moving away from the East Coast and doesn't pose any threat to us and Maritime Canada I'm not really posting on it. That developing area of low pressure off the Southeast Coast still has a chance to develop into a tropical depression over the weekend. Currently as of  1130PM Wednesday night, the National Hurricane Center has the development odds at 30%. The general conditions over that part of the Atlantic basin do indicate there's a chance for some gradual development over the next few days But regardless of any development the high pressure over the East Coast should keep this thing generally moving north and then north and east and out to sea. I don't really see this having any direct impact on our region, But there could be some rip tides over the weekend. So keep that in mind If you're going to the beach. That area in the central Atlantic is designated invest 96L. The general setup also allows for this to gradually develop over the next few days. Currently the National Hurricane Center Is giving this a 60% chance of tropical development. It's too soon to be completely sure but this does look like it's going to stay away from the East Coast of the United States. There is a frontal boundary now over the Gulf of America. So we will have to keep an eye on  that area.  As I indicated yesterday The wave that will be coming off the West Coast of Africa over the weekend, is the one I think we really should keep a close eye on; as the sea surface temperatures are warm, wind shear will be relatively low and the  atmospheric moisture looks to be increasing over that part of the main development region. With the strong high pressure to its north; This one will have a much better chance of tracking West across the Atlantic and possibly move into the Caribbean or head towards the Bahamas  or Southeast coast during the second half of next week. Too soon to know exactly how this will track if it gets into the western Atlantic but it is well worth keeping an eye on it.