Warm for now!

 Very warm for the first half of the week but changes are coming!

A quick post and what to expect this week.

We have a cold front moving across the region.  Slightly cooler are moving in behind the front, As high pressure will be moving in.  The rain showers associated with the cold front have mostly slipped to the east and the majority of the region is dry.

For tomorrow as the high pressure sits overhead south southwest winds will allow much warmer air to work into the region. This high pressure is going to stay overhead for Tuesday into Wednesday. That southwest flow will allow Tuesday to be even milder than Monday,

During the first half of the week, high temperatures records are going to be challenged and even broken. These warm temperatures are going to lead to a lot of snow melt and the good chance of ice dam flooding. If you're in a flood prone area stay aware!

Here's a look at the 5 day  850MB ECMWF temperature ensembles, Courtesy of tropical tidbits.

Wednesday is gonna start out very mild. But we're going to watch a strong system approaching. The cold front associated with this system is likely going to be causing quite a bit of severe weather out over the Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday. As this front comes through our region later Wednesday and Thursday The severe component should be lower. But we are going to be seeing much cooler Canadian air work into the region; putting an end to the super mild temperatures.

Ahead of the front on Wednesday We are going to watch rain showers work into the region. These are going to be sliding south and east ahead of the frontal boundary. Possibly impacting parts of northern New York State and western parts of our region later Wednesday. Along with the rain will come to chance for some thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. As the front continues to push through during Wednesday into Thursday; the rain showers and thunderstorms are going to continue to move across the rest of the region. On Thursday is that cooler air is moving into the region rain is likely going to change over to some snow/mix showers across at least the northern half of Pennsylvania all of New York State and New England. 

 

The snow could be accumulating especially in the higher elevations. Those downwind of the Great Lakes are also likely to be dealing with some lake effect snow. We are going to have to watch for the possible redevelopment of a coastal low. Friday into Saturday we are going to see a clipper system move through reinforcing the cold air in the region and bringing rain and snow showers with it

Wednesday into Thursday we're going to be seeing strong winds with the frontal boundary, wind gust of 30-40+ miles an hour will be quite possible. The winds will lessen but it's still going to be gusty as we head into Friday and the weekend. For the second half of this week and through next week the temperatures are going to be up and down as the pattern stays very active with several areas of low pressure coming through the region.

This cooler trend Is going to be with us for at least the next couple of weeks. The Climate Protection Center 8-14 day temperature outlook does agree with this assessment.

Have a great rest of your Sunday!