This post will be a little longer than my typical Sunday update, due to the amount of what's going on. But you don't have to read the entire thing you can cherry pick what you want to know about.
A quick look at this week's weather...
Surface charts and radar
We have that week cold front dropping down through the region Most of the right region is dry but there are a few very isolated showers. Behind this cold front We are going to see Canadian high pressure drop down into the region for the entire week. Providing the vast majority of the region with dry Conditions and above average temperatures. The question is going to be What happens in the tropics.
Right now future Imelda Looks to keep the bulk of her moisture Over the southeast and south of our region. But it is possible A bit of this precipitation gets into the middle Atlantic region And Wednesday. I do think the Canadian high pressure will keep it south of the region but I can't completely rule that out so I'm gonna throw in the chance for a few rain showers for Maryland and Delaware.
This dry spell looks to last into maybe Mid-Next week When we will have a stronger cold front come through that will bring a better chance for widespread rain showers.
The tropics...
Humberto:
Hurricanes Hurricanes Hurricanes Have a hard time maintaining category 5 strength For very long Umberto is now a strong category 4 hurricane with 150 mph maximum sustained winds, A minimum central pressure of 934 MB , tracking west northwest at 13 mph. This weakening is due to an eyewall replacement cycle earlier this morning.
We do have the Bermuda high In the Atlantic, Humberto is going to be working on this and most likely will weaken its influence on the steering pattern. This will have implications On TD9 down the road. Humberto still looks to pass a couple hundred miles west of Bermuda. But he looks to bring tropical storm force conditions to the island.
Image credit Tomer burg
Tropical depression 9
TD9 should become Imelda at some point today.
Currently TD9 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, a central pressure Of 1002MB Tracking north at 7 mph.
Future Imelda still looks to slow down and stall north of the Bahamas. We have to trough We have the trough over the southeast that is going to try to hook TD9 and pull it towards the Carolina coast. Then we have the Bermuda high That is going to try to pull TD9 north. This will allow a roadway for TD9 to follow toward the southeast coast.
Image credit tropical tidbits
But because Humberto has weakened the Bermuda high and being as strong as he is, he is going to override the influence of the southeast ridge. So as he pulls to the north, his influence on the steering pattern is going to try and nudge TD9 south, with the net result of stalling TD9 east of the Florida Coast. Why off Florida? TD9 taking longer to develop than I anticipated and the faster forward pace of Humerto, has TD9 Just south of Humberto's circulation, Preventing TD9 from coming further West and north. Then later Tuesday into Wednesday Humberto will pull TD9 sharply to the east away from the Coast.
Because of the influences will stay Further south and east then she looked yesterday. As a result rain totals are down along the coast. Central east Florida can expect gusty winds From future Imelda, There are tropical storm watches up along parts of the Florida coast in case tropical force conditions make it that far to the west. The east coast of Florida will likely be dealing with some rain locally heavy rain will be possible.
As the rain Plume moisture hits that stalled front over the southeast, moderate to heavy tropical rainfall will be over far north eastern Georgia and the eastern Carolina's. general rainfall amounts for these areas look to be 3-6 inches.
Humberto will bring Bermuda some impacts We will have to see if future Imelda does as well.
A little bit of this and that...
The Atlantic basin has become active since my last post the accumulated cyclone energy index has made great improvement.
Because of Humberto reaching category 5 and future Imelda the ACE index could reach 93-100 by the end of September. That is right around average for this point in the season which means We have seen a huge upward adjustment from the last post I did on the ACE index. My hurricane outlook I posted early this year might not be in as much jeopardy as I thought it might be. We will see
A quick look at the upcoming winter pattern
Siberian snowfall so far this September is notable due to its unusually heavy accumulations and large extent. This could have large implications for our weather here for winter 2025-2026. As I said in the last upcoming winter post; the increase in snowfall is a result of increased atmospheric moisture. With the larger snow extent increased earlier cold across Alaska into northern Canada is likely, with a better chance for more cold fronts bringing in more colder air into our region early on.
There is a correlation between Siberian snow extent and the strength of the polar Jet. The more snow we see in Siberia the greater the chance for a weaker northern jet, leading to a much better chance of disrupting the polar vortex allowing for colder and snowier conditions for the northern and eastern United States including the Northeast and Middle Atlantic region, As the weakened polar jet Polar vortex allows colder air to penetrate further into our region. It can also create a disruption in the winter pattern leading to a chance for severe winter storms.
It looks like we're off to a fairly decent start we'll see if the pattern continues
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