09/19/2025

 A great weekend ahead.

The surface chart and radar shows that weak moisture starved cold front moving over the region with the entire region rain free. The air is very dry But I suppose it is still possible for a few very very isolated rain showers today. But I will be surprised if anyone sees any. 

Satellite shows not much going on across the Eastern US. But we do have a  disturbance near the Mississippi river valley. This could Influence our weather early next week. Until then Today and the weekend will be spectacular with plenty of sun but quite coolish temperatures.

For Monday and Tuesday we will be dealing with a few Shortwave troughs moving through. That could spark off a few isolated showers. Then for later Tuesday and Wednesday a stronger but still moisture starved cold front will move across the region bringing a better chance for some scattered isolated showers across the region. There's a chance for a few thunderstorms but the odds of those are low. Then for Thursday and Friday high pressure will set back up overhead providing dry conditions with plenty of sun. On Friday we will be watching another system approach from the south and west; that could possibly bring some rain into parts of western Pennsylvania later friday.

Right now I don't see any major storms Impacting our region anytime soon

Tropical Atlantic

Gabriel is looking a little more organized  than she was yesterday. The National Hurricane Center has her maximum sustained winds at 50 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1004 MB, tracking west northwest at 12 mph..

Image credit Tomer Burg

Looking at satellite, as she is shrugging off  all that dry air and wind shed she is developing more Convection (thunderstorms). She looks healthier than she has since she was 1st named. Because she is becoming more developed Her tropical storm force windfield has shrank down to around 150 miles from her center.

She is moving into Warmer waters around 84°F and wind Sheer will continue to lessen. So she should continue to strengthen and could become a hurricane by Sunday.

By tomorrow She should start to make a track more to the north northwest generally towards Bermuda.

Image credit Tomer Burg

She still looks to pass just to the east of Bermuda Sunday and Monday. Then turn into the open northern Atlantic likely staying south and east of Atlantic Canada.

There are a couple of tropical waves to the east of Gabriel having a much better chance of heading towards and if they survive making it into the Caribbean.  The NHC is giving 20% odds to the one that just came off the West Coast of Africa. These waves will be facing wind shear and dry air issues as they head towards the Central Atlantic.

The SST's in the Caribbean are running 86°F to 88°F. With parts of the Gulf of America even warmer.  So anything that gets into the Caribbean and Gulf of America could have a chance to rapidly intensify. 

Have a great weekend!