Summer like, with hot and humid conditions developing.

Quick look at the week ahead

Y’all who like hot and humid weather are going to be happy, everyone else not so much!

 We’re going to see a hot and humid pattern develop through the first half of this week.  Then a cold front is going to cool us back off.

 Plains and the Midwest

The central US into the Midwest are going to be dealing with several rounds of severe weather today into Monday. This is likely to be a large and dangerous severe weather outbreak. The storms are going to be capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Centers Convective Outlooks for today and Tomorrow.  There is a good chance the SPC ends up issuing a high-risk level later today or tomorrow.

TODAY in the Northeast

Surface chart and radar

We have a back-door cold front pushing south out of Canada, this could bring a few rain showers into parts of northern New England into northern New York State later this afternoon and evening. But any showers will be short-lived. We could also see A few showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon across western New York State into northwestern Pennsylvania. Most of the region should end up warm and mostly dry with only a slight chance for rouge showers or perhaps a couple rumbles of thunder, due to the trough hanging around overhead. Today will also be breezy.  

 We’re going to have a warm front approach the region tonight with scattered clouds. The winds are going to start coming out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

 TOMORROW 

 We’re still going to be under the influence of the trough. This will produce scattered clouds and isolated rain showers.  The warm front is going to continue to approach and move through the region with increasing clouds and scattered isolated thunderstorms.  Winds will be coming in from the southeast at 5 to 20 mph.  With the southern flow temperatures are going to become warmer than today.

 TOMORROW NIGHT

We’re going to be watching a cold front cuts approach from the west. As this moves east the severe thunderstorm threat is going to shift into our region and much of the eastern United States. Ahead of the front winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 20 mph. There could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm ahead of the approaching cold front.

Tuesday and Wednesday are going to see near to or record high temperatures. Humidity is also going to be quite high.

TUESDAY

 The cold front will getting close to western parts of the region with increasing clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in afternoon into the evening.

The storm dynamics should be lessening as the front moves in. But some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. As the front moves into the heat and humidity. Here’s a look at the SPC outlook for Tuesday.

The main risk from these storms will be strong damaging winds, heavy downpours, large hail, and frequent lightning. A couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out.

 WEDNESDAY

The cold front will continue to advance across the region. Again, some of these storms will be strong to severe, with the risk of high winds, large hail and sudden heavy downpours. With all the humidity frequent lightning is also going to be an issue.  Tornadoes can’t be completely ruled out. Our high temperatures ahead of the front will be in the mid 80’s into the mid to upper 90’s.

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On Thursday the cold front will be moving into New England with showers and thunderstorms in the morning.  During the day, skies are going to be clearing west to east. The cold front will be moving away from New England on Friday. There will be the risk for leftover showers, but these should be fairly isolated.

 We going to have high pressure move in behind the front, this is going to cool us back off to around seasonal temperatures for the end of the week and through the weekend.  Saturday is looking to be dry. But we will be watching an area of low-pressure approach on Sunday. This could produce scattered showers and thunderstorms