Unsettled and active.

 A quick post on the next few days.

 Surface chart and radar.

 

 

  

The system that produced the severe weather yesterday is now southeast of Long Island and is heading away from the region. Yesterday saw at least 4 tornadoes, the two in New York State resulted from waterspouts that moved ashore. One was in Nassau County on Long Island in west Atlantic Beach; the other was in Rockaways and Five Towns in Queens. There was also a tornado the cause a lot of damage in Dover Delaware. A tornado was reported in York County, Pennsylvania and another was also possibly spotted in Columbia, in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania.

 Other than a few lingering showers, this will pull away enough to make for dry conditions in the Middle Atlantic for the rest of the day.  For southeast New England, it should be mostly dry this afternoon, but the winds will become gusty as the low heads north and east. Behind this we have some short-lived high pressure building in. So, the region should see mostly dry weather, with lower humidity. Tonight, will be another cool one.

unsettled weekend

We have a shortwave of low pressure developing over the Carolinas, this is going to move up the coast for tomorrow. However, as the high pressure slides east, clouds will increase from south to north. Along the immediate coast there will be more in the way of rain, with showers becoming scattered to isolated the farther from the coast you get. But for many of y’all, Saturday stays dry. Then during later in the day. a frontal system will be approaching that will likely bring New York State and Pennsylvania a few scattered showers and storms later in the day, as the warm front lifts into the region. These showers will be moving west to east. Things will turn muggy behind the front.  Then on Sunday the cold front will be swinging through, bringing a better chance for showers and storms. Due to the cold air aloft, some of these storms will be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds, heavy downpours, frequent lightning and small hail. The tornado threat will be low. I do think the severe threat will be more isolated

The unsettled pattern is going to continue next week, with several short waves and troughs moving through the region. This will keep the region coolish with generally lower humidity. Next week won’t see rain all the time, there will be plenty of dry time.

 

Tropical Atlantic

It’s been a while since I posted on the tropics.

Not much going on. But we do have a couple of yellow spots the NHC is watching. The one on the right is heading east toward Portugal. The one on the left is tracking west-southwest, it will stay on this general track into the weekend, before turning northward toward Bermuda, which it is looking to miss, then turn Northeast next week. Neither of these two are going to be an issue for the US.    Both weak disturbances are at 7-day development odds of 20%.

Down in the Main Development Region and Africa.

There is a tropical wave that just came off the West Coast of Africa, with another that will be moving into the Atlantic early next week.  

The 1^st one, is going to be dealing with a lot of wind shear, and dry and dusty air all compliments of this very strong El Nino.

 So, this shouldn’t survive the hostile setup. The 2^nd one will depend on if the 1^st one can carve out an area with less dry dusty air ahead of it.  But the odds of this making the full trip into the Western Atlantic are low. If by some chance it can find a somewhat better environment, any development would be very slow. 

Speaking of El Nino, make sure you read my 3-part series on this year's Super El Nino! 

 

 

A bit stormy and wet for some of us

 

The surface chart shows the cold front is pushing south and east across New England and Pennsylvania. Behind the front the air is very refreshing.  We can see the area of low pressure trailing cold front over southeast Ohio, ready to push across Pennsylvania. The low did allow bands of heavy rain to bring substantial flooding for Ohio this morning.

 

 

Here’s a look at the warnings and watches.

 

We have a couple of boundaries impacting the Middle Atlantic, these will help enhance rainfall and thunderstorm development in this area. This part southern Pennsylvania into Delaware and Maryland and especially central New Jersey and into southern Connecticut could see 2-4 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts due to training thunderstorms.  That part of the I-95 will have a very active evening.

The latest thunderstorm outlook.

 Here’s a look at the SPC day one severe outlook.  Storms that become strong to severe will be capable of damaging winds in excess of 65 mph. torrential rain, frequent lightning, hail, and an isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out.

For tomorrow into Saturday, we can expect comfortable conditions and lower humidity levels.   Saturday we will see another area of low pressure develop. This will extend up through southern New England on Sunday. This one looks to bring more heavy rain to the same areas seeing it this evening.  From Washington DC up through New York City across Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with the risk for some flooding continuing. Then later on Sunday a frontal system will approach from the west bringing widespread rain and isolated storms.

Behind all of this next week looks to be active and unsettled. We’re going to have troughing develop over the region. This will bring in well below to below average temperatures for most of us for much of next week.

 

 Drought

Northern Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont had limited rainfall in the past week, leading to degradations in drought. Deterioration of soil moisture and streamflow were noted in this area. Elsewhere, localized precipitation resulted in small improvement in drought conditions in upstate New York and in central and eastern Massachusetts. Similarly, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia had some improvements where there was significant rain during the past week.

 

 

Stay safe!

 

A quick post to cover today

 The surface chart shows a stalled front trying to move into the region.  

 

Low pressure will form in Pennsylvania along the front, as the front slowly slides east this low pressure will move east with it. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will form over Pennsylvania into the southern tier of New York State. The farther north you go the more isolated the showers will be, across areas south of Syracuse showers will be widely isolated. Right now, it looks like north of the New York State Thruway should stay mainly dry.

As the front stalls, the low pressure will hang around, with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms moving into Eastern Pennsylvania, the Middle Atlantic, and southern New England. As is the case in New York State, southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, southern Maine could see some isolated showers. But northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northern Maine should see dry weather.  

The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe storms across most of eastern Maryland, Delaware, southeast Pennsylvania and southern and central New Jersey. The main risk will be gusty damaging winds and heavy downpours, that could lead to urban and localized flash flooding, the hail and tornado risk is also there but lower.

An area of high pressure builds late Thursday and clears skies out overnight.

Cold front moving in today

 

High pressure is pushing east as a cold front moves out of the Great Lakes, bringing some showers and a few thunderstorms. The front will slowly move through the region today, with the high pressure exiting tonight.

On Thursday the cold front with the low pressure will continue to move through and produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Marginal Risk for severe storms for the Delmarva, Maryland, Delaware, Southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, this includes Washington DC and Philadelphia. So along and east of this part of the I-95 corridor, the main risk will be damaging wind gust and heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding. There will also be a slight risk for some hail.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has this part of the region at risk for some flash flooding.  

For Friday late afternoon into Saturday low pressure will form along the boundary, bringing the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Most of these won’t be severe. But I can’t rule out a few strong to severe storms across southern Maryland and Delaware, but those with the best chance of seeing severe storms will be from southeastern Virginia down into central and coastal areas of the Carolinas. For the rest of the region Friday shouldn’t be too bad with only the risk for a few isolated showers.  Saturday will see this area of low pressure move north and east, bringing rain showers and some thunderstorms to southern New England. Then for Monday through Wednesday, we will be dealing with troughs, keeping things unsettled. 

It stays unsettled!

 

I met to put this up this morning, but a horse issue came up, that made that the priority. Anyway, here is a quick post.  

Surface Chart and regional radar.

 

 

We can see the frontal boundary set up over southern New Jersey, back into Delaware and Maryland., with a cold front just off the Coast. High pressure is nosing out of Canada; this will keep us dry with mostly sunny skies with seasonably warm temperatures and humidity is still going to be a bit high for today into tomorrow.

A cold front will approach on Wednesday so our chance showers and a few storms increase. Across northern New York State and into Northern New England as early as tomorrow morning. The front will slowly be moving out of the Great Lakes into the region during the afternoon into Wednesday night. With the frontal passage there will be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms moving west to east. As the front moves into southern New England and Pennsylvania it will be weaken and slow way down, it does look to lose some of its moisture.  For western Pennsylvania, New York State into northern and central new England Friday and Saturday should be fairly dry.

The front is going to end up stalling to our southeast near the Mid-Atlantic coast, we’re going to see a series of little areas low-pressure form along the boundary, for Friday into Saturday. These will move along the boundary. Bringing the chance for widely scattered rain shower across Maryland, Delaware, into New Jersey and Southern and southeast New England. Exactly where these front stalls will say how much rain some people see and who sees what, right now the best chance for more in the way of rain stays closer to the coast. The cold front will bring a noticeable drop in temperatures and humidity, making Friday into the weekend very comfortable. Sunday and Monday we will see troughing along with a cold front approach and move into the region, keeping things a bit unsettled, but there will be plenty of dry time. The trough looks to hang around for Tuesday as well.

Yesterday, I posted on what looks to be a very strong El Nino and some implications on winter.

From Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits.

Here is the latest data showing temperature anomalies in Nino 3.4 showing an SST anomaly of +2.327, if this remains the case over the next few weeks, then we’re already in a Very Strong (Super) El Nino!  This is already having a big impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and it will have a big impact on Winter 2026-2027.

I hope y’all can find the time to look it over (yes I know a three part series is a lot of reading), but I think it provides a lot of insight into what is going on. It will also lay the groundwork  for my multi part winter outlook that will start being released in October.

 

A look at the current El Nino development and the 2015-2016 Super El Nino

 This will be the last post in this series covering the Super El Nino’s of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

Links to part 2 and part 1

1982-83 

1997-98  

The El Nino in the equatorial Pacific continues to quickly strengthen.

The El Nino of 2015-16 is in the same class as the El Nino’s of 1982-83 and 1997-98, and it set new records in the NINO4 and NINO3.4 regions in the western and central Pacific.

The 2015-16 El Nino broke warming records in the central Pacific, represented by the NINO3.4 and NINO4 indices. At its peak in November 2015, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly reached 3.0°C, breaking the previous record of 2.8°C set in January 1983. In the NINO4 region,

What are the current conditions.

 We have a very strong El Nino signal with SST anomalies well above average off the Coast of South America and out across the Eastern into Central equatorial Pacific.  This is a classic El Nino signature.

As I’ve said in the other El Nino post, an SST anomaly in Nino3.4 of 1.5°C is considered a strong El Nino.  The El Nino is considered very strong or “super” when the anomaly is just over 2.0°C. If the models are right, the forecasted anomaly by early winter 2026-2027 will be 3.5°C to 4.0°C which would be historic and off the chart.

While the relative anomaly for the week centered on 29 July was +1.5°C, placing El Niño in the category of a strong event, since then a further increase of 0.3°C, taking Niño 3.4 to +1.8°C.

 

This means just 0.2°C remains before the phenomenon officially reaches the +2°C threshold used to define a very strong El Niño, although the peak of the event is expected to occur between October and December. Meanwhile, the Niño 1+2 region, off the coast of Peru, has already reached a 3.2°C relative anomaly, an exceptional value, Nino 3 is at 2.5°C with Nino 4 at 0.2°C.

We can see the subsurface has a lot of hot water. These super warm temperatures extend down around 650 feet. 

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), an intraseasonal variation in the tropical atmosphere that occurs on timescales of approximately 30 to 60 days, is forecast to move across the western Pacific and subsequently into the central Pacific. The current forecast indicates a reorganization of the MJO and its eastward propagation over the coming weeks, in an evolution that could interact positively with El Nino and contribute to even more intensification.

 As I've said before, the MJO is a pulse of convection that moves from west to east and can cause significant variations in tropical winds. As it passes across the Pacific, the weakening of the easterly winds can favor the formation of an oceanic Kelvin wave, which also propagates eastwards along the equator. During the warm phase, these wave lead to downwelling, this helps increase the heat content in the upper layer of the ocean, reducing the impact of the cold waters that would normally reach the surface. 

The 3–30-day chi200 JMA forecast

All of this is particularly important in the current scenario, as there is currently a large amount of heat stored below the surface, and the possible favorable influence of the MJO could help transfer some of this energy to the surface. With Niño 3.4 already at +1.8°C, this mechanism could be important in allowing El Niño to exceed the +2°C threshold in the coming weeks.

The stratospheric polar vortex interacts with the polar jet stream and with the phases of the El Nino/La Nina pattern to influence weather in the Eastern U.S. and Europe.

The polar vortex sits above the Arctic and is linked to the jet stream. Both of these can be impacted by El Nino, bringing a lot of changes to the weather patterns.  When the PV is strong it helps look the cold up over the Arctic. But a weak PV can lead to many more arctic air intrusions into the central and eastern U.S.

If the polar vortex remains strong this winter, it will mean an overall mild winter in spite of El Nino

Here's a look at the general precipitation pattern based on the relative strength of the El Ninos. 

Departure from average snowfall for El Nino winters since 1959

Details on the Super El Nino of 2015-2016

Average sea-surface temperature anomalies in November 2015, when the El Nino event peaked in the NINO3.4 region. The chart shows SST anomalies compared to the 1981–2009 average.

While some aspects of the 2015- 2016 El Nino were similar to the El Ninos of 1982/83 and 1997/98, it was also much different in important ways. Unlike the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Ninos, which had the above-average SST anomalies in the eastern into central equatorial Pacific; the super El Nino of 2015-2016 had the well above average SST in the western and central equatorial Pacific but were milder near the coast of South America. The El Nino episode reached its peak strength during November-December 2015.

All of this is why this is looking to be a possibly record breaking El Nino,

Regional Impacts

Like the other Super El Nino’s the winter of 2015-16 had major snowstorms. There were also multiple smaller snowstorms and a significant ice storm in early-to-mid February, producing ice accumulations of 0.25–0.75 inches in parts of New England.

Overall, the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region saw well above average temperatures, and generally below average snowfall. Shifted storm track: The very strong El Nino altered the position of the northern jet stream over eastern North America, had had a very strong southern subtropical jet, creating conditions for occasional heavy snowfalls amid generally warmer and wetter background conditions. The entire winter was more or less dominated by a zonal flow that kept frigid Arctic air mostly to the north, resulting in a slow start to the winter season.

December 2015 set records for warmth across the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic Region.  January 2016 brought more variability in the pattern. While brief cold snaps and lake effect snow occurred in Northwest Pennsylvania western and northern New York State. But in spite of those cold snaps, the overall average temperatures remained above average. February started out warm but then the coldest air of the season moved in around February 14. The event was short-lived and February ended up well above average across the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic.  The Winter came to an end generally as the end of February approached.

 Temperatures

Precipitation 

As with the past Very Strong El Ninos there were major snowstorms.

The Biggest snowstorm of the season.

It started as a shortwave trough that came ashore onto Pacific Northwest on January 19, 2016. The disturbance dropped south and east and continued to strengthen over the Great Plains, As the disturbance got over Central Texas an area of low pressure developed. This tracked east strengthening along the Gulf Coast due to all the tropical moisture. The primary low, transferred energy to the Coast where a new low-pressure area began to develop on January 22.   The coastal low tracked up the East Coast and rapidly deepened, off the middle Atlantic Coast.

The January 22–24, 2016, snowstorm dumped over 20 inches of snow in the Northeast and over 10 inches for people in the Southeast."  The higher elevations in the eastern mountains were struck by amounts of over 2 feet of snow. The storm was given the nickname Snowzilla and it produced snowfall amounts of 3 ft to near 4 ft in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Early on January 24, as the nor’easter was pulling away from New England, the system began to become elongated, as a secondary low developed to the southwest of the storm's central low. The storm lingered into January 25, as the blizzard left the East Coast of the United States.

Here is a look at the track. As well as the general setup and snow impact.

The storm ranked as a Category 5 "extreme" event for the Northeast on the Regional Snowfall Index, and a Category 4 event for the Southeast. It was the first winter storm to rank as a Category 5 winter storm since the 2011 Groundhog Day blizzard.

It had a remarkably similar storm foodprint from the January 1998 blizzard.  

I-95 Corridor

During the winter of 2015-2016, Along the I-95 the vast majority of seasonal snowfall fell during Snowzilla.

New York City recorded a total of approximately 32.8 inches of snow in Central Park

Baltimore experienced significant snowfall, with a total accumulation of approximately 57.4 inches for the season,

Philadelphia recorded a total snowfall of approximately 27.5 inches, making it one of the moderately snowy winters in recent years.

Boston received a total of approximately 36.1 inches of snow, which was significantly milder compared to the record-breaking 110.6 inches the previous winter.

Washington, D.C. received an estimated total of 31.2 inches of snow.

The lake snow belts

The El Nino kept most of the cold air bottled up north. But there were periodic cold snaps that allowed for a few lake effect snow events, but they were short-lived and often followed by rapid melting.  As a whole the snow belts saw slightly below to below average seasonal snow totals.

 The other Super El Ninos serve as a potential tease of what could come during the 2026-2027 winter season if the temperatures in the Pacific Ocean continue to grow.

Typical El Nino Pattern.

 

 

Summary

The winter of 2015–2016 in the Northeast was dominated by warmth and a delayed snow season due to El Nino, yet storm events like the Blizzard of 2016 and lake effect snow episodes created localized heavy snow accumulations, making it a winter of contrasts with an overall mild but eventful profile

the seasonal snow fall totals were for the most part below average in most areas. The winter was mild for most of the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic, with the heaviest snow confined to the snowbelt and the January 2016 blizzard.

The season was unusual warm overall interlaced with intense cold outbreaks, with parts New York State, Pennsylvania, and New England seeing temperatures that got quite cold in mid-February. The Mid-Atlantic, to experience generally warmer-than-average conditions for December through February.

What does looking back at these Super El Nino’s tell us about the upcoming Fall and overall winter pattern?

Fall 2026

Temperatures

Overall, these should run average to slightly above average for September, October and November.

Precipitation

Generally, the southern tier of New York State, Pennsylvania and the rest of the Middle Atlantic should run around average, with a chance for southern Maryland and Delaware to run above average. Northern parts of the region should end up generally below average.

This summer has seen a lot of severe weather.  September should see severe chances winddown across New York State and New England. But across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware there could still be quite a bit of severe activity.

 

Winter 2026 -2027

Going over the El Nino’s of 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 we saw they had similarities and dissimilarities.  We also saw that wintertime outcomes came down to several factors, not one individual storm. Looking back, we can see no two El Nino events are the same, each season has its own atmospheric setup.

So, what can we decipher?

Each of the Super El Nino’s had an active screaming southern subtropical jet.  So, this winter should be the same, this will keep the main storm track extend across southern California, through Texas and along the Gulf Coast up into the Southeast CONUS.

An active Subtropical Jet should support increased precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic, with the rest of the Northeast seeing overall drier conditions. 

In the North, conditions look more volatile with a more variable pattern. The Great Lakes should end up with average to slightly above average temperatures. There should be many Fast‑moving clippers, sudden snow squalls, sudden cold snaps, and bursts of bitter air that will intermingle with thaws. While the snowbelts will end up with slightly below average-to-average snowfall; these cold snaps and milder periods will lead to rapid freezing and melting cycles making maintaining a deep snowpack difficult. Overall temperatures in the rest of the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic should end up slightly below to below average, but there will be cold outbreaks.

It does look like the Northeast and Northern Middle Atlantic will be in the battle zone as all the features interact.  The strong southern jet along with shortwaves dropping south and east out of western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, could cause headaches from time to time as these two things interact, allowing for areas of lower pressure to form in the southern Plains. Some of these will end up becoming lake cutters and Appalachian runners.

The pattern is also going to feature a secondary storm track up and along the East Coast. As disturbance move west to east along the southern Jet. The history of these very strong El Nino’s show there a chance for Appalachian snowstorms that move into the interior Northeast. Super El Ninos also make for an environment that supports major Coastal Storms (Miller A Nor’easters) each one of the Super El Nino’s had at least one.  Temperatures are going to be very volatile during the entire winter. But based on past history the snowiest part of the winter should be January into February.  As these disturbances approach and move through temperature and storm track will determine whether they bring rain, sleet, or heavy snow across interior areas with the coastal zones generally trending toward rain and mixed precipitation. I anticipate at least one blizzard this winter.

Right now, we have to wait and see how things evolve.

I will release the first part of my official 2026-2027 winter outlook sometime in October.

 

 

Rain this week, but there will be lots of dry time.

Surface chart and radar 

We have a warm front with a few weak boundaries lifting through the region, this is leading to isolated to scattered showers. While temperatures are seasonal, the front is bringing high dew points, which is making the air feel quite muggy. Scattered thunderstorms will be around this afternoon and evening.  With the high humidity, a few storms will be capable of dropping very heavy rain. The weak cold front swings through tonight and the overnight, it will take down the temperatures a bit, but it will still be warm, but it will put a dent into the humidity.  

High pressure builds in for Tuesday. There could be lingering rain showers, but most won’t see them, and it should be a fairly nice day.

As the high pressure exits, low pressure with a couple of fronts arrives out of the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.  The cold front will be slowly moving northwest to southeast. The rain won’t be super widespread, so the flood risk is low.

The cold front will bring a noticeable drop in temperatures and humidity, making Friday into the weekend comfortable. Most of the region should be dry on Saturday, but a coastal low will form and move along the coast.  This will bring scattered showers along the coast, with rain becoming much more isolated away from the coastal plain.

Sunday we will be dealing with a trough bringing the chance for isolated showers. Monday will be a wash rinse and repeat. 

Invests 92L and 94L that we were watching last week, have succumbed to the high windshear and dry air. This is a result of the current strengthening El Nino. I will be posting the last part of the super El Nino series sometime over the next couple of days.