Sunday, June 21, 2026

Happy Father's Day on this first day of Summer!

 

Today is the first day of the Summer Solstice, meaning this Father’s Day will see the most daylight of the year.

Surface chart and Radar

 


 



We have high pressure up over the Great Lakes and low pressure to our north producing a trough over the eastern half of the region, we can also see a system out west that is going to push east.

For today, a warm front will begin lifting north, heat and humidity will start to push into the southern part of our region. The best chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be closer to the Canadian Border, in the Adirondacks and across northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and Maine. But isolated showers will be possible across the rest of New York State, northern Pennsylvania, into New England. But most won’t see them.  Storms will be slow moving, so isolated flooding can’t be ruled out.

Tonight clouds will increase ahead of the next weather system, as that system out west approaches, there will be a chance of some showers over the evening hours for western parts of our region. As the system out west gets closer.

 





Monday will see waves of steady rain and some thunderstorms push into Western Pennsylvania and western Maryland, as that wave of low pressure passes to our south across the Middle Atlantic. The rain and storms will push east into the region. How far north the system tracks the farther north the rain and storms. Right now, it looks like heaviest rain will fall across Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jesey. With Steady rain maybe making it as far north as the southern Half of New York State (mainly south of I-90) and across southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire and Maine. Those across northern New York State and the northern half of Vermont and New Hampshire along with northern Maine saying mostly dry with a chance for some isolated showers.  Thunderstorms could become strong too severe across Pennsylvania, New Jersey and points south.  Those with the greatest chance of seeing severe storms will be across a large part of eastern Maryland and Delaware. The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms across Maryland and Delaware with a Marginal Risk stretching into Southern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and NYC and part of Long Island. Severe chances will depend on how much sun appears, as earlier rain could dimmish severe chances.  

 


Monday night into Tuesday will see that low-pressure system track across Southern New England heading into the Gulf of Maine.  This will bring widespread sometimes heavy rain across the southern half of New England Monday night into Tuesday some of this steadier rain could make it into southern inland and coastal locations of Maine. With scattered showers across northern Maine.  The farther west and north you are on Tuesday the less your chance of seeing rain.

Wednesday looks to be a mostly dry day with mild temperatures.  Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday night, ahead of another system for Thursday and Friday. Both days look to be active with showers and thunderstorms quite possible.

Friday, June 19, 2026

Confirmed Tornadoes!

 



So far there have been four confirmed by the NWS from yesterday’s storms.  Here are the complete storm surveys for all four.

#1

NWS Damage Survey for 6/18/2026 Cortland County EF-0 Tornado Event...

Rating:                 EF-0

Estimated Peak Wind:    80 mph

Path Length /statute/:  4.6 miles

Path Width /maximum/:   500 yards

Fatalities:             0

Injuries:               0

Start Date:             June 18, 2026

Start Time:             11:32 AM EDT

Start Location:         3.4 miles west of Cortland NY

Start Lat/Lon:          42.59 / -76.25

End Date:               June 18, 2026

End Time:               11:37 AM EDT

End Location:           1.0 miles east of Cortland NY

End Lat/Lon:            42.6 / -76.16

An EF-0 tornado briefly touched down 3.4 miles west of Cortland in

Cortland County NY around 11:32 AM, moving east-northeast at 50

mph. Tree damage along the route was the most common type of

damage, with a swath of tree damage showing a convergent pattern,

which is an indication of a brief tornado touching down. Going east

along Route 222, and along residential streets south of Route 222,

multiple trees fell in the east-northeast direction, with a few

falling due north. Where convergent damage was evident was just

north of the Cortland County Airport, with a few trees falling in

the southwest direction. Among the damage, some of the most

extensive was mainly large uprooted trees and large snapped trees.

Going further east-northeast, further scattered tree damage was

observed, but did not show a convergent pattern. This indicated

that the brief tornado dissipated heading into town, and was

residual thunderstorm wind damage.

We would like to thank local emergency management and residents

for their help with this survey and for providing eyewitness

accounts.

#2

...NWS Damage Survey for 06/18/26 Yates County EF-1 Tornado Event...

.Yates County Tornado in Rock Spring...

Rating:                 EF-1

Estimated Peak Wind:    90 mph

Path Length /statute/:  1.21 miles

Path Width /maximum/:   150 yards

Fatalities:             0

Injuries:               0

Start Date:             06/18/2026

Start Time:             10:55 AM EDT

Start Location:         1 W Rock Stream / Yates County / NY

Start Lat/Lon:          42.4678 / -76.9309

End Date:               06/18/2026

End Time:               10:57 AM EDT

End Location:           1 NE Rock Stream / Yates County / NY

End Lat/Lon:            42.4704 / -76.9075

Survey Summary:

An EF-1 Tornado hit Rock Spring, NY during late morning on June

18, 2026. Though there were pockets of minor tree damage from the

storm itself, tornadic damage started around Reading Road at

1055 AM. This tornado strengthened to as much as 90 mph from Old

Lake Road to State Route 14, as rotation tightened with the storm

itself quickly moving at 50 mph from higher elevations into the

Seneca Lake basin. Numerous trees were uprooted in a convergent

chaotic fashion, and around 40 vineyard posts were snapped. Twigs

and branches were impaled into the ground as missiles in portions of

the vineyard, and shingles were found more than a quarter mile

from their source. A garage outbuilding collapsed, with some peeling

back of a metal roof and siding damage also noted on the residence

with small branches squeezing into gaps. After crossing State

Route 14 with a continued corridor of uprooted trees, the tornado

ended at the Seneca Lake shore around 1057 AM near Fir Tree Point.

Spotty tree damage was found on the other side of the lake, but not

consistent with tornadic winds.

The NWS Binghamton office would like to thank impacted residents

and vineyard for their assistance in completing this survey, while

providing accounts of what they observed. Thanks also to Yates

County Emergency Management for their coordination. See less

#3

929

NOUS41 KBTV 192118

PNSBTV

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-200930-

 

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service Burlington VT

518 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

 

 

...NWS Damage Survey for Woodstock/Bridgewater Tornado Event...

 

Rating:                 EF1

Estimated Peak Wind:    100 mph

Path Length /statute/:  1.34 miles

Path Width /maximum/:   550 yards

Fatalities:             0

Injuries:               0

 

Start Date:             06/18/2026

Start Time:             02:35 PM EDT

Start Location:         1 NE Bridgewater / Windsor County / VT

Start Lat/Lon:          43.5928 / -72.6089

 

End Date:               06/19/2026

End Time:               02:38 PM EDT

End Location:           2 NE Bridgewater / Windsor County / VT

End Lat/Lon:            43.6036 / -72.5884

 

Survey Summary:

An EF-1 Tornado wound through the valley along Route 4, where it

uprooted and snapped numerous trees. It also warped solar panels,

a metal shed, and took off some roofing before traveling up the

hill where it lifted. A snapped tree collapsed a wooden

structure.

 

&&

 

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the

following categories:

 

EF0.....65 to 85 mph

EF1.....86 to 110 mph

EF2.....111 to 135 mph

EF3.....136 to 165 mph

EF4.....166 to 200 mph

EF5.....>200 mph

 

NOTE:

The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to

change pending final review of the event and publication in

NWS Storm Data.

 

 

$$

4th

 

586

NOUS41 KBTV 192210

PNSBTV

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-201015-

 

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service Burlington VT

610 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

 

 

...NWS Damage Survey for South Lincoln Tornado Event Update #1...

 

This is a correction from the original statement to reflect the

correct date.

 

Rating:                 EF1

Estimated Peak Wind:    105 mph

Path Length /statute/:  0.31 miles

Path Width /maximum/:   200 yards

Fatalities:             0

Injuries:               0

 

Start Date:             06/18/2026

Start Time:             01:31 PM EDT

Start Location:         3 NW South Lincoln / Addison County / VT

Start Lat/Lon:          44.1014 / -73.0156

 

End Date:               06/18/2026

End Time:               01:33 PM EDT

End Location:           3 NW South Lincoln / Addison County / VT

End Lat/Lon:            44.1046 / -73.0113

 

Survey Summary:

A briefly strong EF-1 tornado touched down in the woods

approaching York Hill Rd. The tornado crossed into the nearby

ravine where damage trailed off.

 

&&

 

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the

following categories:

 

EF0.....65 to 85 mph

EF1.....86 to 110 mph

EF2.....111 to 135 mph

EF3.....136 to 165 mph

EF4.....166 to 200 mph

EF5.....>200 mph

 

NOTE:

The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to

change pending final review of the event and publication in

NWS Storm Data.

 

 

$$






Tropical Write Up

 The remints of Arthur are meandering around the Southeast.

Arthur didn’t remain a tropical cyclone for long, but it did bring of torrential rains and severe weather across parts of the Deep South yesterday, resulting in widespread flooding across south and central Louisiana into southeastern Mississippi and lower Alabama.




As this pushes east off the Coast, it is currently over the Carolinas, there is a very slight chance this could try to redevelop during the next 7 days as it moves off the U.S. east coast.  The window for any development is very short. As this will merge with the large area of low pressure to the north.  Earlier today the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had a 10 % chance of this developing. But that has since been lowered to a 0% chance.




The window for any development is very short. it appears to merge with the large area of low pressure to its north.


 

There is a large tropical wave emerging into the East Atlantic off the West Coast of Africa. But conditions aren’t conductive for development with a lot of dry dusty air and high wind shear.




In spite of the hostile conditions the cyclone formation probability forecast is currently a 10 to 20% probability for development of this wave. While the odds of development are very low, I will keep an eye on it over the next 48 hours.



Tranquil Father’s Day weekend!

 



Surface chart and Radar

We see yesterday's cold front that brought all the severe storms to New York State and New England, is now off the Coast, with just a few isolated rain showers from far northern New York State to Maine. There are also a few rain showers over Southern Maryland and Delaware.

 


Yesterday saw dozens of Severe storms across NYS and New England. As the cold front quickly moved across the region. The atmosphere was moderately unstable, but there was strong deeplayer wind shear over New York State and New England, due to the strong synoptic forcing over that area. This is called a low-Cape high shear environment. This type of environment can produce severe weather outbreaks that are capable of significant tornadoes, straight-line winds, and hail. That was certainly the case yesterday. In a LCHS setup tornadoes are very hard to detect. So, in spite of there being at least one area of rotation that produced an apparent debris ball (TDS) between Groton to Cortland. The NWS issued no tornado warnings for NYS. But the NWS will be conducting surveys in Yates County as well as in Tompkins and Cortland Counties to determine with any occurred.  Another area that had a possible tornado was in Woodstock, Vermont, to see if there was a tornado.

With the El Nino effecting the pattern we can expect the see saw pattern to continue along with the chance for more severe outbreaks.

What about this weekend.

Today is going to see scattered sun and clouds and should be mainly dry. Temperatures will be slightly below average with lower humidity. Winds will continue to be gusty with gust of 30 to near 40 mph possible. For Father’s Day weekend, winds will continue to be gusty. With temperatures looks to be around seasonal. There will be the chance for isolated rain showers but the bulk of the weekend to see plenty of sunshine and looks to be dry.

The first day of astronomical summer is this Sunday and occurs at 4:24 A.M.

Next week

There is a chance of rain returning as early as Sunday night across western parts of our region ahead of our next system.  More in the way of widespread rain and Thunderstorms chances return on Monday. We’re going to have a leading warm front that is going to bring milder temperatures and higher humidity into the region. The warm front looks to stall over northern parts of the region. Then a trailing cold front will approach and move through, bringing rain and thunderstorms, some of these storms could be strong to severe.  The setup could be quite similar to yesterday, that had a lot of forcing over New York State and New England. So, the chance for strong to severe storms looks to be greater there. This would mean, much of Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic would have less of a chance for strong storms. The setup supports a possible severe outbreak, along with the chance for some tornadoes. We will see how things evolve.

The SPC isn’t indicting much saying things are too uncertain to make a discission one way or the other.  


Tuesday high pressure will move in and with lingering rain showers, but things dry up as the day goes on.  Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday but a weak disturbance to the north could bring a few rain showers especially across northern parts of the region.  Thursday sees the chance for widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms increase as a low-pressure system moves through. Friday will stay unsettled with rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.

 Enjoy today and the weekend. Take time to spend time with the dads to celebrate for all they do!

 



Thursday, June 18, 2026

Tornado Watch Number 352 and 353

  Tornado Watch Number 352


SEL2

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 352
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1000 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western Massachusetts
     Central and Eastern New York
     Vermont

   * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM
     until 300 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A line of fast-moving thunderstorms will sweep eastward
   across the watch area through the early afternoon, posing a risk of
   damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Elmira NY to 25
   miles east of Montpelier VT. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 349...WW 350...WW 351...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
   storm motion vector 26040.

   ...Hart

 Tornado Watch Number 353




 SEL3

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 353
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   140 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern Connecticut
     Central Massachusetts
     Western Maine
     New Hampshire
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
     700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible

   SUMMARY...The fast-moving line of thunderstorms will spread across
   the watch area through the afternoon.  Corridors of damaging winds
   and a few tornadoes are expected with these storms.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 60 miles northeast of Berlin NH to 20
   miles east southeast of Windsor Locks CT. For a complete depiction
   of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 351...WW 352...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24040.

   ...Hart



Scattered to isolated showers and severe thunderstorms for today.

 

Looking at the surface chart and radar

 



We can see the frontal system heading toward the Saint Lawrance Valley, with the warm front lifting through and the trailing cold front over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This is going to make for an instable atmosphere with rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The radar shows the line moving across New York State. This afternoon some of these storms can be strong-to-severe, with damaging winds, torrential downpours that can lead to flash flooding, hail and frequent lightning. There is a risk for a few isolated tornadoes as well.






Ahead of the cold front winds will be quite gusty with gusts of 40-50 mph. This could lead to   sporadic power outages due to downed trees and power lines.  Some of the thunderstorms could produce gust of 60-70 mph.

 The NWS has issued a Tornado Watch that is in effect through 3 p.m. across upstate New York and Vermont and parts of Massachusetts, currently there are a few tornado warned storms in New York State  

 



Arthur

On Wednesday afternoon the wide center of disorganized Tropical Storm Arthur officially made landfall just northeast of Matagorda Bay, southeastern Texas, and is expected to move further inland. It will continue to weaken as it moves inland into parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, while still dumping heavy rain,



Tornado Watch Number 352

 SEL2

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 352
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1000 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western Massachusetts
     Central and Eastern New York
     Vermont

   * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM
     until 300 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A line of fast-moving thunderstorms will sweep eastward
   across the watch area through the early afternoon, posing a risk of
   damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Elmira NY to 25
   miles east of Montpelier VT. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 349...WW 350...WW 351...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
   storm motion vector 26040.

   ...Hart








Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Scattered to isolated showers for today.

 Todays post will go over this week’s regional weather and touch on the El Nino and Tropical Storm Andrew

A look at the surface chart shows,

 





Looking at the wind direction chart, form Windy. We can see there is a southwest flow is directing warmer temperatures and higher humidity into the region.  But we also have a southeast flow into the Middle Atlantic and New England, this is directing a moist more stable air mass into those areas. This is creating a battle between the two air masses over the region.  We have a weak warm front lifting into New York State down through Virginia connected to low pressure up over the mid Great Lakes. Then we have another stronger frontal system out to our west. This area of low pressure will head toward the Saint Lawrance Valley tomorrow. The cold front attached to the low pressure move through the region setting off rain showers and thunderstorms.  

We have an MSC (organized thunderstorms) out in the Midwest. This will bring a lot of severe weather out there in the Midwest Tristate today. It’s quite possible this MSC evolves into a derecho. But other than a few isolated stronger thunderstorms across far western Pennsylvania, the region shouldn’t see any severe storms today.




Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Centers Day 1 and day 2 severe outlook.  The leading warm front will lift through today and tomorrow morning. With the warm front scattered rain showers and some rumbles of thunder will move through the region. As the southerly flow strengthens temperatures are going to become much warmer and humid than they are today. The timing of all of this increases the risk for severe weather across eastern New York State, New England into the northern Middle Atlantic. The storm prediction center has these areas under a Slight Risk for severe weather Severe weather will still be possible west of there, but it will be more isolated in nature. Those with the greatest risk for severe storms will be across New York State and New England. The storm prediction center places a Moderate Risk for severe weather over most of the rest of the region. The storms that form tomorrow, will be capable of strong damaging winds, heavy downpours, perhaps some hail, and frequent Lightning. The risk for a tornado is low but not zero. The best time for severe weather will be noon through 9 or 10 pm. The thunderstorms will be hit and miss so some of y’all might not see them.

Tomorrow ahead of the front, we’re going to be dealing with gusty winds. Storms could tap into that increasing the risk for damaging straight-line winds roll.

The area of low pressure is going to linger to our north and east for Friday Juneteenth into Saturday, as the cold front stalls off the Coast. This will keep us unsettled for Friday and the Father’s Day weekend. The weekend will feature cooler conditions and isolated rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. But there is going to be plenty of dry time as well.  But the entire weekend will experience breezy conditions.  Sunday night and Monday will see another frontal system move through bringing widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms.  Tuesday will see high pressure build in providing much better conditions.

  

El Nino

Another quick update on the El Nino.

El Nino has arrived, on June 11, NOAA officially announced that El Nino conditions had developed in the tropical Pacific. Waters in a zone of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean near the equator have warmed to more than 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9°F) above average.

As I’ve said many times, The El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO is a periodic climate cycle originating in the equatorial Pacific that has an influence on weather across the entire globe. It goes through three distinct phases: El Nino (the warm phase), La Nina (the cool phase), and ENSO-Neutral. It swings between the two main phases on an irregular basis, typically every two to seven years.


El Nino is favored to persist through the upcoming 2026-27 Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. It also is looking to be a strong to very strong El Nino



There is a chance this year’s El Nino  could rival or surpass the strongest El Nino in intensity on record, that would be the 1877–1878 event.

As the El Nino intensifies it is going to cause our region to become more and more unsettled for the summer. We’re going to continue to see these cold fronts with the threat for rain showers and thunderstorms for the rest of this summer.

 

Tropical Storm Arthur

The first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

The NHC has Arthur having max sustained winds of 45 mph with a central pressure of 1000mb. He is tracking northeast at 9 mph.



I’m very surprised that this has become a tropical storm, he has just been hugging the coast and he has been very disorganized.



This does show up in the satellite image. Most of the convection (strong thunderstorm activity) is displaced to the south and east of the center. But I don’t call the shots.

 Arthur is going to bring a lot of rain, another 3-6 inches with locally higher amounts of rain is likely, this is in addition to all the rain that has already fallen. 





That's it







Tuesday, June 16, 2026

A Tropical Disturbance And Severe Later This Week!

 A quick look at Wednesday and Thursday.

Cloud cover will thicken overnight ahead of a weakening frontal system approaching the region. This will move through the region Tonight and Wednesday. Rain Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible late tonight through the overnight for western New York State and western Pennsylvania. The frontal boundary will move through on Wednesday, kicking off the chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. There could be an isolated downpour, but everything will be hit and miss, and many might not see anything. For the most part any thunderstorms should be non-severe, but far western Pennsylvania could end up with a few thunderstorms on the strong side.





Thursday will see heat and humidity return as we deal with a strong southerly flow keeping things quite breezy.  Then a strong area of low pressure and a cold front will approach and move through making showers and storms likely. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. The greatest danger from these storms will be strong damaging winds and heavy downpours.

Friday as the cold front settles into our south conditions will slowly dry out and we will cool off and turn less humid once again, there will be west-northwest breeze lingering for Friday and Saturday.

 Tropical Write UP

The disturbance I’ve been following (Invest 90L) is now Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 (called this because it doesn’t have a well-defined center) Its apparent center is currently located over southern Texas, drifting eastward toward the Gulf.  There is potential for this to become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm as it tracks over the northwest Gulf. So this has a short window to become Tropical Storm Arthur.


Sea-surface temperatures in that part of the Gulf are around 29°C (84°F). with moderately favorable atmospheric conditions. All of this could support the development of a brief tropical system.

A look at the surge forecast.


Storm Surge possibilities from PTC #1, Surge of up to 4 feet is possible

Where will PTC 1 track?



It looks to track just off the central and southeastern Texas coastline later today before tracking more to the north northeast toward the Golden Triangle of Texas or southwest Louisiana





Regardless of this becoming a weak tropical storm, the primary impact is going to be tropical rainfall with amounts of six inches to eight inches, with locally higher amounts possible across Southeast Texas through Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.



 

 

Monday, June 15, 2026

Much Cooler

Yesterday saw a least a couple of damaging tornadoes, in Jefferson County, Pennsylvania. One was confirmed around Reynoldsville and Sykesville,. The other confirmed tornado was in the Anita and Knoxdale. A National Weather Service (NWS) storm survey is currently underway to determine the rating for these tornadoes, as well as determine if other tornadoes occurred as well.

Today and Tuesday 

Today is certainly cooler than yesterday along with humidity levels being much lower. The surface chart shows the cold front is currently over Maine and is pushing east. Behind the front other than a few pesky showers the region is dry.   






A cooler than average temperatures with plenty of clouds will be the case today. This much more refreshing and cooler pattern will be with us for the first part of this week. Tuesday will have more in the way of Sun, so temperatures will be a little warmer, there will also be the very slight risk for a few spotty showers during the afternoon into the evening.


A couple of fronts will be dropping south and east out of the Upper Midwest. The first will be Tuesday night into Wednesday and the second stronger cold front, will move across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday.

Wednesday and Thursday


Ahead of these fronts, winds will become southernly allowing for temperatures to climb and dew points to rise. these fronts will approach and move through the region Wednesday and Thursday.

The cold front dropping out of the Great Lakes and Ohio valley on Wednesday will bring the chance for A few showers on Wednesday morning across western Parts of our region. This will work eastward during Wednesday bringing the chance for more in the way of widespread showers and storms. Those with the best chance of seeing thunderstorms will be across the western half of the region. Then the stronger front will move through for Wednesday night and Thursday. Bringing widespread rain showers and thunderstorms, some of these storms will be strong to severe. Winds for Wednesday night and Thursday will be quite gusty. The air will feel tropical on Thursday.as well.

 


Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather

Here’s a look at the storm Prediction Center’s 3-day severe outlook for Wednesday.  Western parts of New York State and Pennsylvania could see some severe storms in the evening into Wednesday night.  Then for Thursday the severe threat will shift east into the southern tier of New York state, part of southern New England, Pennsylvania and the rest of the Northern Middle Atlantic. Right now, the greatest threat looks to be across Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, into New Jersey. storm Prediction Center’s 3-day severe outlook for Thursday.

 


Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather

The strong to severe thunderstorms will have the possibility for damaging winds, hail, localized flooding and possibly a tornado are on the weather table.

 


 

 Friday and the weekend.

By the weekend the cold front will be to our east and high pressure is in charge again. So, the humidity drops again and we are back in the 70s for the weekend. Friday will have the chance for a few lingering rain showers, but many shouldn’t see them.  Both Saturday and Sunday will see a trough hanging around over New York State and New England. This could allow for isolated showers both days. Sunday night and Monday we will see a frontal system approach and move thorough, the leading warm front will warm us up, before the trailing cold front comes through with cooler temperatures and the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. 

 That's it!