Dangerously hot & humid starting tomorrow!

 

The warm front is pushing into the region; behind it there is a lot of high heat and humidity.  We do have a weakening complex that is moving into Northern New York State.  

 

This along with the front will kick off some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening and overnight. Some of these storms will become severe, with the chance for strong gusty winds being the main threat, but hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be a issue as well. There will also be the risk for a few tornadoes spinning up.

 

Tomorrow the heat and humidity we be here in full force, with Thursday likely being even hotter. High temperatures for the entire region will be in the upper 80 through the low 100s.

Each day will feature the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms some of which will be strong to severe. As these thunderstorm complexes continue to rotate into the region.

There won’t be much relief from the heat overnight, with temperatures staying very warm with high humidity.

Although the heat dome will shift toward the south-central U.S. during the holiday weekend, it will continue to be hot and humid conditions across much of Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic. While the Northeast will be cooler than Thursday and Friday, temperatures will still be above average.

Heat indexes (the feel like temperature) will be in the upper 90’s well into the 100s for Wednesday into Friday.  Wildfire smoke may also become an air quality issue.

Here is what the Weather Prediction Center is showing for the heat wave. 

Here’s a look at the daily impacts that can generally be expected. 

This expansive upper-level ridge heat dome will fuel repeated ridge runner thunderstorms capable of producing Mesoscale Convective Systems and derechos across parts of the north-central and northeast into the 4^th of July weekend.

Have a great day and stay weather aware this week. Remember your hot weather safety! 

 

Advisories, Watches and Warnings

As expected, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded to a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for tomorrow. For parts of northern New York and Vermont. As I said earlier, we’re going to be dealing with a warm front lifting into the region, ahead of this there is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms later Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the Storm Prediction Center placing parts of northern New York and Vermont under a Slight Risk for severe weather. I also said there would likely be a weakening complex of storms dropping in out of Canada into New York State and New England.

The main risk will be damaging winds. But large hail, torrential downpours and even an isolated tornado are possible.

 

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather

 

Wednesday will likely also be dealing with severe weather. The SPC still has the region at a Marginal Risk, but there is a good chance this will be upgraded across part of the region.

 

Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather

The model trend continues to point toward warmer and warmer temperatures during the 2^nd half of this week. 

The NWS has also issued a Heat Advisory for tomorrow, as well as an Excessive Heat Watch for much of for a large part of the region for Wednesday through Friday.

 

Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather

Extreme Heat Warning—Take Action! An Extreme Heat Warning is issued when extremely dangerous heat conditions are expected or occurring.  Avoid outdoor activities, especially during the heat of the day. If you must be outside, be sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade. Stay indoors in an air-conditioned space as much as possible, including overnight. Check on family and neighbors.

Extreme Heat Watch—Be Prepared! An Extreme Heat Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for an extreme heat event, but its occurrence and timing is still uncertain. Plan to suspend all major outdoor activities if a warning is issued. If you do not have air conditioning, locate the nearest cooling shelter or discuss staying with nearby family or friends who have air conditioning.

Heat Advisory—Take Action! A Heat Advisory is issued for dangerous heat conditions that are not expected to reach warning criteria. Consider postponing or rescheduling outdoor activities, especially during the heat of the day. If you must be outside, be sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade. Stay in a cool place, especially during the heat of the day and evening.

As we move through the next 24 hours, I do expect the NWS to expand and upgrade all of this, as things continue to warm up!

 

The furnace is about to kick on!

 

After today it will get uncomfortable for most.  I’ve been talking about this upcoming heat for several day, so it shouldn’t be a big surprise.

 This will be a short post, as there is really nothing new to talk about

We have high pressure in control overhead providing a lot of sun and dry conditions. Temperatures are going to be warm, but humidity will stay under control.

We have a warm front approaching the region, this will roll into the region tonight into tomorrow. As that strong upper-level ridge continues to build its way east, along with very warm to hot temperatures and high humidity with dewpoints in the Mid 60s to upper 70s.   By Wednesday the entire region is going to be under the influence of the heat dome.

Surface chart, Satellite and Radar

 

Tuesday and Wednesday the storm prediction center has a Marginal Risk of severe weather, over parts of our region, the risk will include damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and even a tornado is possible on both days. Starting Tuesday, the region can expect a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These will be isolated to scattered, and not everyone will see them, but they could pop up anywhere. As I said yesterday don’t expect any real heat relief from these storms.

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

What about these complexes of storms.

Image curtesy of Earth Nullschool

We have a strong high over the north Pacific and a strong Bermuda High in the Atlantic, both of these are controlling the trough ridge pattern over North America. Looking at the 500 mb pattern over North America, we can see that deep trough over the western US and the steep ridge over the eastern Plains into the Midwest, due to the strong area of high pressure sitting over the Tennessee Valley. The jet is wavy with several shortwaves moving along it.  

 

Images courtesy of AG Weather 

These shortwaves are going to become ridge running storm complexes as they run along the edge of the heat dome. Weakening complexes are likely going to start Tuesday as they slide into New York State and New England out of Canada and the Great Lakes.  Wednesday and Thursday will have a similar setup for these complexes. 

 As we get into the 4^th of July Weekend, the heat ridge is going to start slowly retrograding back to the west. As this happens the risk for storm complexes will increase over the Northeast. Those in Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic Region will also see their risk increase.

While the Upper Midwest will have the greatest risk for powerful Mesoscale Convective Systems; the Northeast and Middle Atlantic will also have a chance to see these move through parts of the region.

Have a great day!

 

The heat cranks up this week!

The big weather story this week will be the heat.  

We have a strengthening upper-level ridge developing, this is going to bring dangerous heat over the Plains and Midwest today. This will expand eastward through the upcoming week, By Wednesday our region will be dealing with increasingly oppressive heat and humidity ahead of the 4^th of July weekend.

This post will give an overview of what to expect this week, as well as touch on the Tropics 

Surface chart and Radar

 

We will see the heat dome build into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians into the Southeast on Monday. During Monday, the Northeast will start to see the heat increase, but the humidity will be trailing a bit. Late Monday into Tuesday a warm front will be pushing into the region, ahead and along the frontal boundary there is going to be rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms. 

Behind the front on Tuesday the heat and higher humidity will be working in tandem, as that stubborn ridge of high pressure becomes established across the eastern half of the country.  

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

By Wednesday the higher heat and humidity will be over much of New England. We can expect days of high heat and high humidity.  During the week the region as a whole is going to experience its first widespread heatwave.  As that stubborn ridge of high pressure becomes established across the eastern half of the country.  This set up will bring days of high heat and high humidity.  The hot and humid conditions will be in full swing across the region by Wednesday through Friday. Much of the region will be seeing widespread temperatures into the upper 80s to low 100s, combined with high dewpoints in the Mid 60’s to mid-70’s, will result in heat indices approaching or exceeding 100-110 in many places. There will be no real relief at night with the warmth remaining and high humidity sticking around.

Here’s a look at the heat index forecast from the NWS.

 

Each day will also see the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. (this will be especially true for Wednesday and Thursday) But they shouldn’t be widespread. These could pop up anytime. But don’t expect any real relief from the heat as humidity levels will remain high and temperatures that cool during rain and storms will quickly heat back up during the event.

On Friday we should start to see this ridge begin to break down, as cold pockets over Alaska and the Northwest Territories start to exert influence on the North American jet stream pattern.  But that would also support an increased risk for showers and thunderstorms here in our region. The coolest weather during the holiday weekend will be over upstate New York and New England, with highs mainly ranging from the 70s to the low 80s F.  The rest of the region will still be dealing with high heat and humidity that will continue into Monday as the heat dome slowly pulls back to the west.  

As I’ve said a few times, we’re likely to see complexes of thunderstorms that will rotate around the rim of the heat domes clockwise flow. These could result in an active pattern with severe weather for much of the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic. I’m really concurred about the possibility of severe weather as the dome breaks down.  We very well could see some Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) or even a Derecho.  Another thing that could be an issue will be smoke from the wildfires in the western U.S. If this drifts over to the east, air quantity would be impacting, further aggravating breathing issues.     

 Record highs are currently possible for Tuesday into Friday. This is dangerous heat, especially for those without proper hydration and cooling.

Tips for staying cool during this heat

During extreme heat, it is important to stay hydrated. Make sure to drink water frequently and take breaks indoors or in shaded areas if working outside.

Check on neighbors, friends and family who may be in vulnerable populations, such as older adults or those with chronic medical conditions, to ensure they are taking proper precautions.

Wear sunscreen and loose-fitting, light-colored clothing.

Don't leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Temperatures can reach deadly levels within minutes.

Do activities outdoors in the early mornings or evenings if possible. Temperatures are typically at the highest between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m.

Reduce electric usage during peak times of day to limit the strain on power grids. Run appliances like dishwashers, washers and dryers after 8 p.m., if possible. Increasing the thermostat by a degree or two can also reduce usage.

The Tropical Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking four tropical waves

 

There is going to be a stalled-out front associated with the developing heat dome We’re likely to see a broad area of low pressure develop along this stationary front.

 

We can see that area between the Carolinas and Bermuda that is marked in yellow. The NHC indicates a LOW (20%) probability for tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days. 

If something can try to develop, it would retrograde southwest towards the Georgia and the Carolinas coastlines, from here it could drift down toward Florida and Bahamas.  This would hang around that old front and could possibly try to become a subtropical or tropical depression due to the warm water off the Coast. Over the next couple of days conditions are going to become somewhat conducive for development. This could allow for some slow development. If development does indeed occur, it would likely be toward the end of the week.  As I said the other day, I don’t think this is going to become anything of note. The models are starting to back away for this developing into a subtropical or tropical storm. So, for now we just watch.

Enjoy your Sunday!

 

 

 

 

We’re about to put June into the rearview mirror.

This is going to be a quick post!

Surface chart and Radar

Today marks the last Friday in June as this active weather pattern continues.

Looking at the surface chart, we can see a couple of stationary boundaries over the region, along an area of low pressure moving into the Saint Lawerence Valley with an attached cold front sitting over western New York State extending back through northwest Pennsylvania into the Ohio Valley. There is high pressure sitting up over the Great Lakes.

Today is going to going to see seasonal temperatures with variable cloud cover.  As that area of low pressure in northern New York State drifts eastward, it will move over northern New England this evening into tonight. This will bring scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a Marginal Risk for severe weather over Northeast New York State including the Champlain Valley, most of Vermont and New Hampshire into Maine. The main risk will be strong gusty winds, hail and some heavy downpours, the storms will be moving fairly quickly, so the flood danger is rather low. The tornado risk is very low.

 

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

Tonight we’re going to see an area of low pressure move along a boundary to our south. At the same time, we’re going to see high pressure move into New York State.  This will create a complex setup across the region for the weekend.

This area of low pressure will be tracking east across Pennsylvania Friday night into Saturday morning. The rain will move back into western Pennsylvania this evening and into Saturday morning, the rain will make it into eastern Pennsylvania tonight into the overnight rain as it heads for the Delmarva Peninsula. Saturday there will be areas of heavy rain, especially around the Masion Dixion Line and points south. The rain will be ending west to east on Saturday; things look to taper off early Saturday afternoon across the Middle Atlantic and eastern Pennsylvania. For the most part Sunday looks to be dry and quite warm and muggy, across our southern areas.  Across northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire into Maine, both weekend days, look to be mostly dry, but there will be chances for rain showers each day. For the rest of the region between these two features, it should be mainly dry, with only the slight chance for a rouge rain shower.

Last night I posted on the ring of fire that is going to be setting up next week, if you haven’t read it, you might find it useful to do so!

The high-pressure ridge heat dome is going to be setting up. over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. This is going to trap hot and humid air under this dome. Some of this heat and humidity will make it into western parts of our region, but central New York State will be on the edge of the heat, but it will still be quite warm and humid. As this ridge builds, we’re likely to see thunderstorm complexes rotate around the dome. These could impact a large part of the Northeast into the northern Middle Atlantic.

That’s it, have a great weekend

A Ring Of Fire!

 

I’ve been talking over the last few days about the high-pressure ridge heat dome that is going to be setting up. Currently the feature that is going to cause this is over the Northern Pacific.

This will build a deep trough in western North America with a steep ridge of high pressure over the eastern half of North America. This is going to bring a lot of heat into the Midwest, Southern Plains and Southeast.

 

The high-pressure ridge is going to be a heat dome bringing a multiday heat wave that’s going to impact the Plains and Midwest. Some of this heat is going to extend east into the Northeast and Coastal US.  

Under the dome there is going to be widespread upper 80’s and well into the 90’s. With the southern Plains getting into the 100’s. Heat indexes (combination of heat and dew points) are going to be extremely uncomfortable. As I said in the earlier post very hot temperatures and humid conditions in parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will be oppressive early next week. For much of next week, the core of the heat is likely to be centered over the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys.  While the Northeast will be on the edge, some of that heat in the Midwest is going to extend into Western Pennsylvania and Western New York State. It will be a bit cooler across the rest of the Northeast.

The heat dome will drift back west as we get past the fourth of July and will likely basically sit there as we head toward the middle of July.  Something else I said in the last couple of post about this, we’re likely to see rounds of ridge-riding thunderstorms mesoscale convective systems (organized thunderstorms) and even mesoscale convective complexes (special type of MCS that is a large, circular, long-lived cluster of showers and thunderstorms) and possibly some derechos (fast-moving clusters of thunderstorms with destructive winds), rotate around the rim of the ring of fire impacting areas of the Upper Midwest, Northeast into the Middle Atlantic. So, there is a chance for some active severe weather in this pattern.

The Tropics

There’s nothing really going on in the Atlantic tropics right now. Currently the tropical environment is unsupportive. There are rumors of something trying to form off the Southeast Coast. But I think the odds of this becoming anything tropical are very low.  As we move forward in time the conditions in the Atlantic Basin will become somewhat more favorable for development with lower wind shear and less dry air. But even with that, I don’t think we’re going to see anything tropical develop over the next 7 days to maybe 10 days.

The National Hurricane Center agrees with this assessment.  

 

 

Have a great night!