Hello Winter!

Over the next 7 to 10 days the Northeast States look to be locked into a wintry weather pattern. This week is going to start off cold and blustery with bouts of Lake-effect snow (LES) impacting central and eastern New York State (NYS) as well as some enhanced upslope snow showers across the higher terrain of easternmost NYS and western New England (WNE).

Today's activity is pretty impressive for LES across eastern NYS and WNE. By this evening additional accumulations are expected:

on top of what you may have already received in your locality:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
648 AM EST MON DEC 6 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE

PAST 3 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING

OUR REGION.  APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.  THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT


MASSACHUSETTS

...BERKSHIRE COUNTY...
   NORTH OTIS             1.0   450 AM  12/6 SPOTTER

NEW YORK

...ALBANY COUNTY...
   KNOX                   2.0   642 AM  12/6 WXNET 6
   VOORHEESVILLE          0.9   600 AM  12/6 NWS EMPLOYEE
   SOUTH BERNE            0.5   542 AM  12/6 WXNET 6
   VOORHEESVILLE          0.4   644 AM  12/6 WXNET 6

...GREENE COUNTY...
   ASHLAND                4.0   622 AM  12/6 WXNET 6
   ELKA PARK              3.0   519 AM  12/6 SPOTTER
   HAINES FALLS           2.0   524 AM  12/6 SPOTTER
   HALCOTT CENTER         2.0   644 AM  12/6 WXNET 6
   HALCOTT                1.0   356 AM  12/6 SPOTTER

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
   PALATINE BRIDGE        2.0   610 AM  12/6 WXNET 6
   GLEN                   1.0   617 AM  12/6 WXNET 6

...SCHENECTADY COUNTY...
   PRINCETOWN             1.3   553 AM  12/6 WXNET 6
   DUANESBURG             1.0   626 AM  12/6 WXNET 6

...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...
   JEFFERSON              5.8   428 AM  12/6 WXNET 6
   GILBOA                 2.0   620 AM  12/6 SPOTTER
   RICHMONDVILLE          1.5   530 AM  12/6 WXNET 6

...ULSTER COUNTY...
   SAUGERTIES               T   410 AM  12/6 WXNET 6

VERMONT

...BENNINGTON COUNTY...
   WOODFORD               3.5   553 AM  12/6 WXNET 6

With winds varying between West and Northwest through tomorrow these areas of LES

and upslope snow will likely persist but the bands of heavier 
vary in their location.

During Wednesday and Thursday of this week a shot of BELOW normal cold will move 

down across the Northeast. On these days it looks like temperatures will be near 

10 degrees below normal for the daytime highs; this means for Albany afternoon 

temperatures will stay below freezing for the highs (upper 20s)

On Friday a low pressure system coming in from the northwest(we call 

this a "Clipper" system)will pose the threat for some periods of light snow

and snow showers. There is a chance that a secondary are of low pressure may

try to form near the east tip if Long Island or over southeast New England. 

While the possibility of this development appears to be slight at this time and 

if it were to occur it would be a weak system,it could nonetheless result in a 

period of steady snow for a few hours during the afternoon and evening time from 

Albany east across Western New England. This might result in a few inches of snow.

By Friday though the weekend, temperatures will be moderating some getting back

to almost normal. 

By later Sunday into Early next week another storm threat looms and this one could be 

a significant winter storm for many of us. Its way too early to start to talk about specifics just know 

that there is at least a threat for such an event to occur. 

Below are images from some of the longer range weather data for Sunday and Monday of next week.

This is the weather model known as the EC and this chart shows the expected conditions 

for next Sunday evening 12 Dec for 7pm at night. 

The upper right map is a forecast for the surface (showing areas of high and low pressure.)  

This chart is valid for Monday evening, 7pm the 13th of December: 

This is data from the GFS (weather model): 

The forecast is valid for Sunday (12 Dec) evening 7pm:

 

The above map is valid for Monday afternoon the 13th (1pm).

Both look nasty for sure thus our concern.
More updates to follow over the upcoming days....