The fall pattern is developing

 An impressive pattern change is taking place for upcoming week.

 The heat ridge across the U.S. that has been a constant issue for most of the lower 48 has nearly broken down. The vast majority of the CONUS is seeing a zonal pattern. As is typical of this time of year, the polar vortex is forming above the Arctic this will be with us through the winter season. As many of y’all know the Polar Vortex is broad area of circulation over the northern (and southern) hemispheres. The Polar Vortex acts as a spinning wall over the polar regions, rising from the surface into the stratosphere. The stronger the vortex the greater the chance colder air gets locked up in the arctic.  The vortex is only a small piece of this winter's puzzle. Historically, strong El Ninos has increased the likelihood of the PV weakening at times. So, if it weakens from mid-January to February, it could allow colder-than-average temperatures to drop into the mid latitudes.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

Today

Today will feature on and off showers, that will be heavy at times, due to all that tropical moisture in the air.  The widespread nature of the rain, over New York State and Pennsylvania will be tapering off from west to east gradually as the afternoon progresses. With the exception of New England, most of the rain should be over by this evening. For New England rain will stick around for the evening into tonight before ending. But the Cape and offshore Islands could see lingering rain during the overnight.

The week ahead

For Monday and Tuesday, the front will stall to our south, with a frontal boundary hanging around for a few days. A couple areas of low pressure will move along this boundary keeping Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey unsettled.  Some of this could extend into the southern tier of New York State and parts of southern New England. But north of their Monday and Tuesday is looking dry. The Autumnal Equinox begins on Tuesday at 8:05 PM.

The coming work week is going to be very cool, with temperatures generally running 5-10 ° F below average for this time of year.

 Northern areas look to stay mainly dry for much of this week, but Wednesday and Thursday we look to see an upper-level low over the Middle Atlantic, there is a good chance a surface low will develop offshore and possibly form a Nor’easter by the weekend. With the strong high over eastern Canada winds will become very gusty, with gust greater than 30 mph possible.  The SST are quite warm, so this could try to develop into a subtropical disturbance.

 

The Atlantic

Tropical Storm Fay was named early this morning. Making her the 6^th named storm of the 2026 season. Fay is going to meander around the open northern Atlantic and looks to not be a threat to any landmass. Fay has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, min central pressure of 1004 mb, moving northeast at 3 mph. She is going to track southeast tomorrow, heading into hostile conditions for development, so her lifespan will only be a few days. The conditions ahead should keep her from becoming the season’s first hurricane, but stranger things have happened. 

Starting Saturday night...several days of wet conditions.

The first cold front has dropped through the region with the 2^nd one poised to drop through today.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

  

Today

Temperatures a cooler and humidity are lower across New York State and New England as well as northern Pennsylvania, but the rest of Pennsylvania central and southern New Jersey are still seeing some humidity with warmer temperatures. The satellite shows north of southern Pennsylvania is seeing quite a bit of Sun, but southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey are seeing more clouds than Sun.

As the 2^nd cold front drops in from the north, those temperatures and humidity will drop as drier air moves in. These cooler and dry conditions

 

The weekend

The second cold front is part of a trough that is dropping into the region. This trough is going to interact with the warm humid air associated with the Southeast ridge extending into the Tennessee River Valley.   

High pressure is building in and will be setting over the region on Saturday. Leading to plenty of sun and below average temperatures. That will change come Saturday night and Sunday, as a warm front lifts in bringing widespread scattered showers and some thunderstorms, this will be a soaking rain which parts of the region need very badly. Western and central Pennsylvania and New York State will likely be dealing with rain on Saturday night, with the rest of the region seeing the rain on Sunday.

We’re going to have high pressure shift into the Gulf of Maine, sitting over southeastern Canada. So, the front will stall over the region, meaning cloudy skies and periods of rain for our Sunday.  Rain will be heavy at times, as the two air masses duke it out.

We can see that on the 850mb temperature anomaly from Tropical Tidbits.

That area of high pressure will set up an atmospheric block, which will bottle up the flow. So, we going to be dealing a stationary boundary for Monday and Tuesday, keeping things unsettled. Then for Wednesday and Thursday a cold front associated with another trough; that will keep it unsettled with scattered showers and cooler than average temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday.  Low pressure with another cold front will move through on Friday, this will mean periods of rain, heavy at times for Friday.

 

Staying unsettled

 We have the stalled cold front sitting over northern and western New York State. This will slowly drop across the region with increasing clouds and rain showers with isolated thunderstorms.  Southwest winds ahead of the boundary will allow temperatures and humidity to increase ahead of the frontal boundary.  Then for Friday into Saturday Canadian High pressure will build in with below average temperatures and lower humidity.

 

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

 

Today

Temperatures and humidity will make it feel quite muggy. Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms will be dropping south and east during the afternoon into tomorrow morning. A few showers could be heavy at times. Which could lead to ponding on roadways and lead to some poor drainage flooding. As the front slowly advances skies will slowly clear behind the front with conditions becoming drier. the cold front will move through across New England and the northern Middle Atlantic tonight, with scattered rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. 

Friday

 

The cold front will slide off the coast, and skies will clear as high pressure builds in. northwest winds will drive out the heat and humidity, the day will be chilly with low humidity

 

The weekend

High pressure will be setting over the region on Saturday. Sunshine should be abundant, with temperatures across the region being below to slightly below average.  The daytime hours should be dry. But an approaching warm front could allow rain showers to return Saturday across southern parts of the region, depending on the speed of that front. The warm front will continue to advance through the region on Sunday, with seasonal to slightly above-average temperatures. The front will stall over the region, meaning cloudy skies and periods of rain for our Sunday. 

Next Week

The stationary boundary will be hanging around for Sunday into Tuesday with periods of showers. Localized areas could see enough rain, that some flooding will be a concern.  Temperatures will be average to slightly above average for early Fall, as the frontal boundary finely clears the area by Wednesday.

High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday, with temperatures turning chilly once again. Then on Thursday low pressure with a cold front will move through with widely scattered showers.

The Autumnal Equinox is next Tuesday at 8:05 PM.

 Drought Conditions.

Per the Northeast Regional Climate Center

 

“September 17, 2026 - Conditions deteriorated again this week in Maine, where extreme drought was introduced and severe and moderate drought grew in coverage. In addition, moderate drought expanded in northern New Hampshire. There were only minor improvements in the region. This included a reduction in severe and moderate drought in southeastern Massachusetts and shrinking coverage of abnormal dryness in small sections of central Massachusetts, northern Connecticut, and western and central New York. The U.S. Drought Monitor released on September 17 showed 1% of New York and New England in extreme drought, 4% in severe drought, 31% in moderate drought, and 18% as abnormally dry compared to 0%, 5%, 25%, and 27%, respectively, last week.”

The Atlantic

The disturbance spinning several hundred miles east of Bermuda is now labeled Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center. The NHC lowered the odds yesterday. But improving conditions has allowed I-98L to become slightly better organized. So, the NHC has raised the odds back up to 40%

I-98L isn’t in the most favorable environment right now. But conditions will improve enough over the weekend that will give 98L a window to slowly develop. After that dry air will cause some issues.  Those with Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor 98L.  but for now, the odds of significant strengthening are low. 98L poses no threat to the U.S, as it will turn north and then northeast next week. 

 

The end of one pattern and the beginning of another.

 

Daily Write up

 

We have a couple of approaching cold fronts and high pressure is exiting the region opening the door to a cool and wet setup for the next several days. We also have a trough trying to set up in the Canadian Maritimes, as the high-pressure heat dome pushes into the Midwest and Southeast. While the heat will be to our south and west. We’re going to be cool and unsettled as disturbances rotate along the edge of the dome, and we deal with the trough to our north and east.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

 Today

We’re going to see temperatures climb with increasing humidity. So the air will feel a bit muggy this afternoon and evening.

That slow-moving front will move into western New York State and Northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon.  With rain showers and thunderstorms with the chance for heavy downpours. The front will continue to push south and east tonight.

  

The rest of this week

Temperatures and dewpoints will be falling behind the front, but ahead of the front it will be quite humid for Thursday with dew points in the low to upper-60’s/low 70’s. As the front continues to drop south and east it will be weakening and drying up, so there won’t be as much moisture too work with. But there still could be some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.  The front will be sliding toward the coast Thursday night and move off the coast Friday morning. The rain will push offshore, and temperatures and humidity will fall back skies will become mostly sunny, as Canadian high pressure works in for the weekend.

The 2^nd cold front will come through Saturday night, Sunday and into Monday with scattered showers hanging around. Generally, 1/2" to 1" of rain for the region looks likely.

 

 

 

 

Warmer temperatures and rain on the way!

 Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

 

High pressure is still in control of the local pattern; but that higher pressure is going to start to slide to the east this afternoon. On the radar we can see the rain associated with the cold front over the Great Lakes into the Midwest.

 

Today

After a crisp start this morning, The southerly flow ahead of the warm front will allow warmer air to move northward into the region so temperatures are going to recover leading to a nice afternoon. The increase in humidity is going to wait until tomorrow.  Outside of a stray shower today should be dry. As that cold front gets closer and a shortwave trough will move across eastern Canada; there will be a slightly better chance for rain showers across northwest Pennsylvania and western into northern New York State tonight into early Wednesday.

 The rest of this week

Tomorrow will see the warm front continue to push into the region, allowing temperatures to continue to climb. Dew points will also be climbing for Wednesday and Thursday, the low pressure in the Great Lakes is going to track toward Hudson Bay.  The trailing cold front will approach Wednesday night, and slide across the region Thursday into Friday morning. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will be sliding west to east beginning Wednesday night and continue for Thursday. Rain could be moderate to perhaps heavy at times.  Thunderstorms should be non-severe, but a couple could be on the stronger side, with gusty winds and heavy rain the main issue.

The cold front will be sliding off the Coast on Friday morning, with lingering rain across eastern New England into the Middle Atlantic Coastal plain. The cold front is going to push the humidity out of the region for Friday. As high pressure builds in temperatures are also going to be plummeting as the day goes on.   The high pressure won’t stick around for long and will be pushing off the Coast on Saturday leading to seasonal to slightly below average temperatures. A nearby frontal boundary could lead to a few scattered rain showers.  Then later Saturday and Sunday a warm front will be once again pushing into the region.  The front should get hung up over Pennsylvania so those with the best chance of seeing more in the way of rain will be across Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic. But if the frontal boundary can push farther north, the rain will also move north with it. South of the boundary temperatures will be slightly above average, while those north of the boundary see seasonal temperatures.  The boundary will continue to push north on Monday, with widespread rain pushing into New York State and New England.  Then on Tuesday a cold front will approach and move through bringing scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms.

 

Tropics

We have that broad area of low pressure continuing to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center is still giving the disturbance sitting well east-southeast of Bermuda a medium 40% chance of developing within the next 7 days., right now it’s sitting in about the only safe spot in the Atlantic not being disrupted by El Nino. So, there is a short window later this week where it could develop into something subtropical or even tropical. As conditions become more favorable.  If it does it will take the name Fay.

News. 

The National Weather Service announced Monday that it is beginning the process of renaming Lake Ontario to "Lake America" on all of its maps and weather forecasts. I will likely be saying both names during the next few months, old habits die hard!

Tropical conditions outlook.

 

We have a developing area in the Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda that has a chance for tropical development between over the next few days. The rest of the region is still very quiet. The official peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10 is in the rearview mirror without any hurricane forming and well below average activity due to the hostile El Nino conditions.

The National Hurricane Center has a broad area of low pressure at a 40% chance of developing over the next 7 days.

On satellite we can see Convection (thunderstorm) activity already increasing around the broad low-pressure area. This along with Sea Surface Temperatures in that part of the Atlantic that are running 80°F -82°F and the general setup of light to moderate windshear and a fairly moist airmass ahead, I think this has a decent chance of development into a subtropical or tropical storm. Those with Interests in Bermuda will want to monitor the progress of this. But for now, it doesn’t look impact the mainland United States. But I would keep an eye on this.

We do have a couple of tropical waves out over the Atlantic, but the one coming off the West Coast of Africa is the one to watch.

As we go through the next couple of weeks, more moisture will work its way north into the Caribbean and points north. The extra moisture should but a dent into all the Saharan Dust, increasing the odds for something to develop.

Fay in the next name in line this season.

Weekly El Nino update, and a look at factors that could alter the winter pattern.

 

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) update.

This update will go into detail on the current El Nino; as well as try to go into differences in the global setup.  It will also be an important precursor to the start of the official winter outlook next month.

We already know we’re in a strong to very strong El Nino. I and most outlets have been talking about it for several months. Everyone is gushing over this El Nino.  They make it seem the world is doomed. I’ve been trying to stick to the facts about what’s going on and what it means. But as I’ve been saying El Nino isn’t the only game in town, when it comes to long term impacts.

We’re already seeing northern parts of the Northern Hemisphere changing as winter gets closer. When it comes to this El Nino we’re going to have to see how the stratosphere continues to evolve.  As I said in the Friday post, the El Nino has already had a profound impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season, it is truly considerable and historic.  

Current Conditions.   

 

Nino region temperatures as of today

The Nino region SST departures were, Nino at 4 0.1 °C, Nino 3.4 at 2.0°C, Nino 3 at 2.8°C and Nino 1+2 was at 3.7°C.

 Last week's Nino region temperatures

The Nino region SST departures were, Nino at 4 0.1 °C, Nino 3 .4 at 1.8°C, Nino 3 at 2.7°C and Nino 1+2 was at 3.9°C.

 Subsurface water temperatures

 

There is a very deep pool of warmer-than-normal water down to around 500 feet of ocean depth.

The deep water is around 10 °C to 11°C warmer than the long-term average! This is one of the major reasons CPC has the El Nino projected to strengthen.

 Other Teleconnections

There are a number of atmospheric oscillations that are important drivers of week-to-week weather patterns across North America. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) often get the most attention, but two other important pattern oscillations for North America are the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO).

AO:

During the positive phase, the jet stream stays farther north, and mid-latitude winters are milder than usual. During the negative phase, the jet stream dips into the mid-latitudes, creating cold-air outbreaks.

NAO:

A positive NAO index favors mild winters in the eastern U.S. Negative values increased chances for stronger cold-air outbreaks and increased storminess in the eastern U.S.

EPO:

Positive EPO phase: Lower heights in the north and higher heights in the south, typically associated with warmer conditions across central and eastern North America.

Winter: Negative EPO phases are linked to cold outbreaks and Arctic air intrusions, while positive phases favor milder, warmer conditions

When the EPO is in a positive phase, mild Pacific air flows straight into the West Coast of North America. While such a pattern can bring significant rain and snow to the western portions of the country, the air flow warms and dries as it descends down the eastern slope of the Rockies. This results in a warmer than normal pattern across most of the central and eastern portions of the U.S. and southern Canada, particularly during the winter season.

Right now, the EPO is in its negative phase, which is influencing U.S. weather with warmer, drier conditions in the Southwest and more rain in the Northwest, while also creating conditions that can bring cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern U.S. in winter

WPO:

When the WPO is in a positive phase we tend to see warmer-than- average conditions in the North and East. This also results in cooler-than- average winters in the Rockies and West and warmer than average winters in the East, there is also increased precipitation in the Plains and East. When the WPO is in a negative phase we tend to see cooler-than-normal conditions in the North and East. This also results in warmer-than-average winters in the West and Southwest., there is also Reduced precipitation in the Plains and South

All of these teleconnections can transition between positive and negative phases within a few days or weeks, which means long range forecasting and projection is extremely difficult. But they have a big impact on seasonal variability, especially at the local level. So, they will be wild cards from week to week.

The next graphic shows CPC’s official forecast over the next year. The solid blue line in the middle is the current accepted forecast peaking at 2.7 degrees C around December. You can also see some ranges of possible outcomes. The color shading shows the forecast ranges, with the darkest color shading indicating that there is a 50% chance that the forecasted RONI values will remain between the RONI values displayed. There is a 90% chance that forecasted RONI values will remain between the upper and lower edges of the lightest color shading. The middle color shade provides the RONI forecast range with a 70% chance. If you look at the top temperature possibility, it’s now 3.3 °C above normal.

 

 The CPC says the El Nino looks to remain at 2.0 °C or higher through winter 2026-2027.

Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies extended from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection and rainfall persisted from the central to the eastern Pacific, while anomalies remained suppressed over Indonesia.

  

The Southern Oscillation Index is the oldest ENSO measurement still in daily use — and the atmosphere's vote on what the ocean is doing. It compares surface air pressure at two stations that bracket the tropical Pacific: Tahiti in the east-central basin and Darwin on Australia's north coast. The standardized difference (Tahiti minus Darwin) is the SOI.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Nina and represent lower than average MSLP at Darwin and/or higher than average MSLP at Tahiti. Sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Nino, and higher than average MSLP at Darwin and/or lower than average MSLP at Tahiti.

 

The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices remained negative.

 

All of this is saying that the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflects a strengthening El Nino.

  

Difference in the global setup!

There is no doubt that we’re in a strong east based El Nino, +Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), + Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a +Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM). Not only does this flood the CONUS with a lot of mild air. It also means the subtropical jet is going to be very strong and active this fall and winter. Storms coming ashore and running along the deep south, with big storms along the East and West Coasts

We also have a -Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with those warmer SST in the northwestern Pacific with the colder than average SST off the West Coast in the north Pacific.  The last 3 super El Nino’s had a +PDO so that could make for unpredictable conditions. 

Then we have those warmer than average SST just south of the Aleutian Islands into the Gulf of Alaska. Could this temperature contrast help make for a stronger northern Polar Jet.

In my post a couple of months ago I talked about how we’re in a negative Atlantic Nina. We know this is the case with those cooler than average SSTs in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. This has aided the El Nino helping with stronger than normal trade winds over the equatorial Atlantic, and dryer conditions in the Gulf. Which is why the season has been so quiet, in spite of being in a +AMO (which is typically associated with an active Atlantic hurricane season).

What about global temperatures. 

Currently, nearly the entire tropical and Northern Pacific Ocean is warmer than average. That could alter some of El Nino’s effects by influencing weather patterns.

We are in a warming climate, unlike past super El Ninos, which were driven purely by natural ocean-atmosphere dynamics, this one is occurring on a warmer baseline due to the warming climate. The oceans hold over 98% of the energy available to the atmosphere/ocean system. So, in theory the same SST anomalies produce stronger and more rapid atmospheric responses. In some respects, global warming makes this El Nino a wild card, since it will occur in a far warmer world than that of 2015-16 and 1997-98 — and especially 1982-83. A study published in January found that the typical impacts of El Nino in 2023-24 were offset by the profusion of warm water elsewhere in the global oceans. Each of the Super El Ninos set a new global baseline. So, the classic El Nino signal is riding on top of an ever-warmer world. That has to make a difference in El Nino impacts.

The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, researchers put this to the test. They analyzed 13 state-of-the-art climate models that simulate intense eastern Pacific El Niño events well. Each model was run under different warming levels (for example, +2°C or +3.5°C), and the team identified extreme events caused by very large rainfall surges in the eastern tropical Pacific. They then averaged the surface and atmospheric patterns for moderate versus intense El Nino winters at each warming level. The models showed El Nino loses its punch in a warmer world.

In the simulations, the characteristic North American impacts of an extreme El Nino event shift significantly, moving 20–30 degrees farther east and weakening by roughly one-third with +3.5°C warming. This indicates that regions like California and Florida, typically accustomed to heavy rainfall during strong El Ninos, would experience considerably less of the usual deluge. Simultaneously, the northeastern US would lose much of its characteristic winter warmth.  The study showed that, Super El Nino teleconnections shift even farther eastward, weaken, and develop a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like response, echoing the changes seen in moderate El Nino–Southern Oscillation phases." These profound shifts are consistent with climate model predictions of eastward migration in tropical convection and jet-stream patterns. This would mean an increase in storminess with the storms generally being weaker.  So, the bottom line is this current El Nino might not be the blockbuster weather event people expect. It will be interesting to see the results when the Current El Nino is over.

 Conclusion

El Nino has a chance of becoming one of the strongest since at least 1950. The data shows that we’re in a strong to very strong El Nino.  The tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere are looking and acting like they are completely a coupled El Nino the winds above the Pacific are shifting, the ocean is releasing stored-up heat, and a cascade of effects on rain, droughts and wildfires could be on its way. NOAA is giving this El Nino an over 90% chance of staying at least strong, over the course of winter 2026-2027.

This EL Nino has several things that are radically different than past strong to super El Ninos. This means the 2026–2027 Winter Could Look Very Different from what we’ve seen before. It will be highly unpredictable and could surprise a lot of people expecting a certain outcome.  Regions like the Northeast and Middle Atlantic very well could see conditions that are radically different from past strong El Ninos. The Northeast could end up cooler and wetter than is expected. All of this will make coming up with a winter outlook, very changeling.  

As I said in the beginning, this post will set the stage for the winter outlook coming out next month. I’ve tried to outline all the major points that will go into the outlook. If you learned something and liked what you read, let others know about it. 

That’s it for this week's El Nino update. 

Feels like October!

  

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

 

 

Today

The cold front has moved off the Coast with high pressure centered in the Great Lakes is moving in. Radar and Satellite shows the vast majority of the region is seeing mostly all sun with dry conditions and very low humidity, but we do have some cloudiness over northern New England and southern Maryland along with a bit of rain.  The air is very crisp with northwest winds of 5-15 mph with some higher gust adding a wind chill.  Rain will be ending over northern New England and coastal Mid Atlantic as the morning goes on.  The winds will calm down overnight. So, with the clear sky’s temperatures will get quite chilly.

 

The rest of this week

High pressure will stick overhead for the next few days.  These fall-like conditions are going to be short-lived, as the region warms back up tomorrow with gradually increasing cloud cover. Temperatures will continue to climb for Wednesday. The humidity will also become noticeable for Wednesday into Thursday.

Our next front approaches the region On Wednesday, there will be the chance for a few isolated showers late in the day across the western areas. As the cold front continues to approach low pressure develops along it, as the high pressure starts to exit to the east. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase for Wednesday night and Thursday. As the high pressure pushes offshore warmer temperatures and muggy air will move in overhead. While Thursday won’t be a wash out, there will be widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms as the cold front continues to move through. The cold front will move across the Middle Atlantic and eastern New England Friday morning, The cold front will get hung up and linger across Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey on our Friday, keeping the chance for showers across southern Pennsylvania and northern Middle Atlantic Region.

High pressure will be passing to the north on Saturday.  Then later Saturday and Sunday a warm front will lift in, bringing warmer temperatures and some humidity back with it. With the warm front there will be the chance for a few showers. Then Sunday night and Monday a cold front will move through, increasing the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. I wouldn’t cancel outdoor plans over the weekend, just keep an eye on the sky, and have a plan to move things indoors if possible.

I will be posting on the El Nino later today. It will go into a lot of detail, so it might be worth looking at.

 

 

A quick overview of the week ahead, don't let the fall like weather fool you!

Over the last several months North America has been plagued with heat domes, The heat ridges have pushed east and retreated west, but the ridge has been a constant issue.  In the week ahead, we will see the current heat dome over the Plains into the Southeast into parts of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic for a few days. As has been the case all summer, rounds of heavy downpours and severe thunderstorm complexes have rotated around the edges of the heat dome, these storms will extend from the northern Plains down through the Midwest and into the Northeast. The sunlight is becoming less intense than it was over the heart of Summer, but temperatures will still become above average for a few days.

 

Surface Chart and Radar

Today

We had widespread and at times heavy rain across the region last night into the morning. Currently we have at stationary front over Pennsylvania, with a warm front lifting into New England. So today will be muggy with widespread rain across much of New England, and hit and miss showers elsewhere, but there will be plenty of dry time as well. Skies will be clearing across New England as the day goes on.

We have a cold front slowly approaching, as it moves south and east out of the Great Lakes and Canada.  This will be moving over the region later today, bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms, some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe and contain gusty damaging winds, heavy downpours and hail.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of western and northern Pennsylvania, western into central New York State at a Slight Risk for severe storms, with a Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms extending from Vermont down into Pennsylvania.

The rest of this week

The cold front will continue to drop through the region, bringing isolated showers along and south of the front.  High pressure will build into the region behind the front, providing cooler and much less humid conditions. The fall like feel won't last for long.  Tuesday and Wednesday will see temperatures and humidity climb. Temperatures across Pennsylvania and middle Atlantic will be back into the upper 80s and possibly pushing 90, with temperatures across New York State and New England in the 80’s. Thursday will feel muggy ahead of our next cold front.  With the front will come the chance for showers and storms. The front will continue to slide across the region on Friday with the showers and thunderstorms continuing.   Some of these storms on Thursday and Friday will be strong to severe.

 

 

 

It's nice for now!!!

 I got back from the 9/11 ceremony and decided to get this post out to All Y’all

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

Today

 We have a cold front slowly sinking south and east away from the region. Other than a few showers over Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey, the region is mostly sunny and dry, with seasonally cool temperatures.  

We have high pressure building in, that will ensure the region remains dry into tomorrow.

The weekend

On Saturday a warm front will be lifting into the region, winds will become which will bring warmer air into the region. The region looks to stay mainly dry during the morning, but rain showers will be lifting north into Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and southern Pennsylvania during the afternoon. These showers look to reach New York State and southern New England Saturday evening, then reaching central and northern New England during the overnight. Some of the rain could be heavy at times, especially the farther south you are.  A rumble of thunder is possible as well.  With the front warm and muggy air will move into the region south to north.

a cold front will slowly approach Saturday night and move through west to east on Sunday. There could be some rain and thunderstorms across western parts of the region during late morning. But the rain and thunderstorms will be moving east during the afternoon into Sunday night. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.

 

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of Pennsylvania, New York State into western New England at a Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms Sunday. The main threat will be strong damaging winds and localized heavy downpours. We will have to be on the lookout to see if a wave of low-pressure forms along the front, which could enhance rain amounts.

Next Week

 Monday is mainly dry but there could be some lingering rain over eastern New England.  Tuesday we will have a frontal system approach; this will keep the region unsettled for Tuesday through Thursday.

Tropics

It’s been a while since I said anything about the tropical Atlantic, but to be fair, there hasn’t been anything to talk about.

We have a couple of tropical waves over the Caribbean and two others over the tropical Atlantic, with a few more behind them.  But other than that, there is nothing going on!

 We’re at the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and it is remarkably quiet. During the satellite era, the Atlantic hurricane season has never gone beyond September 11^th without having a hurricane form. So, we’re in record territory. As I’ve said many times, overall seasonal activity as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE is a measly paltry 4.4 units (the average for this point in the season is 60.3 ACE units), the lowest of any hurricane season to date in the modern record.

Wind shear and dry air still dominate the Atlantic Basin, so I don’t see anything developing for the foreseeable future. It’s possible we could go all through September without seeing a hurricane.

Never Forget!

Have a great weekend!