In yesterday's post I laid out the scenario as to how things looked to unfold based on my understanding of the general pattern and how elements in that setup could adjust the pattern further. Today the pattern has evolved with the interaction between these elements.
Humberto is now a category 4 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 miles Per hour and a minimum central pressure of 938MB. Conditions are such that further Intensification is very possible allowing him to become a borderline category 5 or a category 5. He is tracking west northwest at 8 mph. Humberto Is the 8th named storm of the season and the 3rd major hurricane so far this season.
Currently his hurricane force winds extend 30 miles from his center with tropical storm force winds extending 105 miles from his center. He is going to stay away from the East Coast and looks to pass just west of Bermuda. This makes tropical force conditions maybe even hurricane force conditions possible for the island.
But in spite of his relatively small size He is very powerful And is disrupting the circulation pattern in this part of the Atlantic. The Northeast Caribbean islands, The Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States can expect dangerous surf and deadly rip currents. Due to his proximity to the still unnamed storm to his west, He will exert a steering influence on that disturbance.
Potential tropical cyclone #9
I-94L became designated PTC #9 yesterday evening. This will likely become a tropical depression later today as it heads for the Bahamas. Given the warm waters around the Bahamas, the lowering wind shear and generally supportive upper level conditions. PTC 9 will likely become Imelda over the Bahamas later today or by early tomorrow.
Over the last several days I've been talking about the interaction between these two features. Yesterday I said Humberto's strength and position would have a lot to say about future Imelda's track. Because Humberto quickly strengthened into a powerful category 4. He is exerting enough influence that he could cause PTC 9 to stall just off the Carolina Coast before pulling it out to sea. I also talked about that possibility yesterday. Most of the models are now supporting that idea today.
The NHC has also adjusted its tracking cone, to show this approaching close to the Carolina coast before sharply being tugged back out to sea. The question is will she continue to follow Humberto out to sea or try to be left behind and wander around the western Atlantic.
If PTC 9 doesn't make an official landfall and instead stalls just off the Coast, for a day or so. She could bring 5-10 inches of flooding rain to the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas back into Georgia and up into virginia. If this occurs It would limit rainfall for western parts of the Carolinas to 3 to 6 inches of rain, which is a much better scenario for the mountainous terrain of North Carolina. But while the landfall scenario is lower today It doesn't mean that it can't happen.
The WPC rainfall QPF amount are based on how close to the coast the current national hurricane center track forecast for PTC 9 indicate. So of course If she gets closer to the coast or is further east than the track indicates these rainfall amounts will adjust accordingly.
That's about all I can cover at this time. I will likely do another tropical post tomorrow at some point.
I read your post yesterday then read it again because my sister and Brother in law are in a RV park right on Chesapeake Bay,their RV is 100 feet from the water but they are leaving tomorrow.I must say that once again people that read your forecast got an extra day of being in the know.One Day is a big deal when whatever is happening is close by.You really have this forecasting thing down.😉 Remember,You are appreciated 🙂
ReplyDeleteI'm glad they decided to play it safer than not. Thanks I do the best I can.
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ReplyDeleteLol, that's ok
DeleteGood morning, I don’t know if you’ll get this being that it’s a day later, but I was looking at my radar maps that I have from the apps. As you have said, you have two storms, one being a major hurricane the other one, not a hurricane yet or maybe it is. The bigger hurricane, Humberto Should be the controlling influence of what would be Imelda. If Imelda decides to travel north or Northwest with Humberto to her east, could Imelda be pinned against the East Coast or even pushed into the East Coast. On the map it shows a low pressure Well, to the north west of what would be Imelda, would that low pressure pull Imelda into the East Coast, Remember, I’m not too bright about this so I don’t know if the low pressure is strong enough to have any influence on what may be a hurricane Or with a major hurricane to the east, would Imelda be penned against the East Coast in travel northward? I see the high-pressure which I imagine is the Bermuda high but also another high pressure that came out of Canada after the rain went through our area. It looks as though there are five players in this puzzle. When I look at things like this, it tells me just how Smart you must be. To be able to look at this situation and come up with a solution. Even if the solution is not exact, which with the hurricane, never mind two Is always possible, they don’t always play by the rules. Well, our rules, they have their own..🤔🙂
ReplyDeleteBelieve it or not I covered this exact question In my latest Sunday update on Imelda and Humberto.
DeleteThank you.
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome
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