11/20/2025

 Today is nice and dry. But tomorrow the pattern starts to be active once again!

Current surface chart regional radar and national IR satellite.

High pressure is sitting over the region resulting in a day with a mix of clouds and sun. Winds are light generally running 0-5 miles per hour. After a very cool start  temperatures are warming up under this November sun providing temperatures that are slightly below average. The regional radar is showing the entire region is generally rain free, with only a slight chance for an isolated rain shower or flurry. We have a split flow over the United States. This is the reason the cold air is up over Canada. On the IR satellite we can see the disturbance in the northern polar stream and the other disturbance in the southern subtropical stream. 

The southern disturbance over the Tennessee river valley,  is going to continue to track north and east, interacting with the disturbance to its north. We're going to have a warm front Lift through the region Later today into friday morning, a light southern flow will allow temperatures to warm up. Then a weak cold front will be working across the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. As the cold air tries to bleed in from the north the moisture from the southern disturbance that is going to be heading towards the Middle Atlantic region; will try to produce snow showers. But our temperatures are going to be mild enough that outside of northern Maine where a light accumulation of a dusting to maybe a few spots where a couple inches might be possible, the rest of the region should see just plain rain out of this. This front is going to be moisture starved with most of the limited moisture out of it staying up over Canada. So any rain will be very spotty and lite. Friday night into Saturday the rain will be tracking generally south and east, with any precipitation exiting the region late Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon. We're going to have high pressure building in for later Saturday and Sunday.  Sunday into Monday The high pressure should generally still be in charge. But we will have a shortwave trough up in Canada that could get close enough  possibly bringing a bit of snow over far northern New York State and northern New England. The closer to the border you are the better your chance of seeing some snow. Over New York State and northern into central New England There will be a  chance for a few rain showers  and higher elevation snow showers. The rest of the region should stay dry. Tuesday is looking like high pressure will briefly set up. But it will be tracking out of the region for Wednesday

I've been talking about the possibility of a storm moving through before thanksgiving. I've been going back and forth about the possibilities of snow with this. That's because I've been paying more attention to the models than I should have. But now I'm basically going back to my original premise where we will have the two disturbances moving west to east across the United States. The leading disturbance should track over the Great Lakes or the western half of Pennsylvania and New York State. This is going to keep most of that cold air Locked up in Canada. We're going to see a cold front move across the region on Wednesday. As the cold front slides across the region we will probably see low pressure developing near or over Maryland , Delaware Into  the Delmarvia.. This will help enhance rainfall. At least right now, the vast majority of the region should see just rain out of this. But those higher elevations across northern New York State and northern New England could end up with a snow, sleet, freezing rain mix. Thanksgiving Thursday should see high pressure move in and set up providing a fairly nice day, with seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions. I don't expect this to have big implications on Pre-Thanksgiving day travel.

As I've been saying for quite some time, past Thanksgiving the pattern is going to cool off a lot from the Great Lakes into the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic. As we move into December the cold air is going to continue to stream into the Northeast, With temperatures steadily becoming much much colder. With the  cold we could see a storm impact our region as early as next weekend. The setup that is evolving has Low pressure off the coast The Carolinas and Georgia. From here the storm could track out to sea or it could ride up the coast. This far out we're just talking about potential. But if this does end up tracking up the coast with all that cold air in place It could end up being a regional snowstorm. The pattern looks to stay very active in the northern and southern jet streams. With this in mind December could end up very snowy. I'm not trying to alarm anyone Just trying to talk about the potential moving forward into December.

That's it for today. I want to thank all y'all for following me. I tried to keep you informed with the data and information that I have, without all the hype and scare tactics you get from many other sites on social media. Weather is very complex but I try to break it down Into an easy to read format that doesn't lose a lot of the science behind it. To produce this product for y'all It takes a couple of hours of prep work, That's time I have to pull from other spots in my life, that are equally important and busy. For that reason I really need your help in trying to grow this blog page. The old northeast weather page Had over 15,000 followers, but the weather group that you are mostly getting the link for my post from only has around 1,000-1,500 that are following it, However there's only a small fraction of 5-10 percent... Who view, like or comment on anything that I post! .I really need this to change. I not only want to grow the weather group I  also want to see a lot more people  viewing the blog. Besides my weather post There are also several pages on the blog that have a lot of weather data available at your fingertips. All I ask is that all y'all pass the word on And campaign a little about all of this, if you like what I'm doing and what you see. I like to think the blog has a lot of bang for the buck And is one of the best weather sites on social media. And it's also all free many times to get this kind of information You have to pay to see it. Anyway thank you for following my post You are all very important and valuable to me!