11/18/2025

 A very chilly day!

A look at the surface chart and regional radar

GOES I/R image

Today is breezy but winds aren't as gusty as they were yesterday. Generally winds across the region are running 5-15 mph Generally winds across the region are running 5-15 mph with some gust upwards of 20-25 mph. Up over Maine the winds could be a little stronger as they are closer to that upper level low setting over the Canadian Maritimes. The region is quite chilly with temperatures running slightly below average for this time of year. On the surface chart, we can see we have high pressure that's controlling our weather for today. But the surface chart also shows that low pressure system approaching from the west. Along and ahead of the attached warm front we have rain showers and snow showers moving across western and central Pennsylvania.  The wind should be backing off this evening into tonight.

Image credit Penn state e -wall

That area of low pressure that is in the Midwest will continue to move east heading towards the Delmarvia Peninsula. The rain and snow showers will continue to move east today into tomorrow morning. These rain and snow showers should generally stay confined to Pennsylvania Maryland Delaware into southern New Jersey. There could be a little bit of  snow accumulation for those areas up around 2,000' and above. So a dusting to around  an inch of snow is possible for parts of the Poconos and those higher elevations into northwest New Jersey. There is a chance that isolated rain showers out of this reach far southern New York State into New York City and Long Island. 

The rain will be pushing off-shore late tomorrow morning into the afternoon, as high pressure Approaches and moves in. The high pressure will stick around for Thursday Most of Wednesday and Thursday should be tranquil and a bit milder. As we approach Friday we will see low pressure approaching out of the Great Lakes. The attached cold front is going to slide across the region Friday into Saturday. With the cold front we will see scattered rain showers and higher elevation snow showers. During the day on Saturday this cold front is going to slow and end up stalling, as high pressure approaches and builds in behind it, conditions will quickly improve. High pressure will be sticking around for Sunday providing a chilly but fairly nice and tranquil day. The high pressure will be starting to give way and head east on Monday. Then for Monday night and Tuesday, we will see an area of low pressure moving across Canada that's going to drag a cold front across the Northeast, bringing back a chance for rain showers and higher elevation snow showers.

If you read my post on the pattern; You know that I said as we close out November and go into December we're going to be cooling off, As we start to see a significant pattern change. To get there, we have to go through a storm. Monday into Tuesday we look to have an area of low pressures over Texas. This looks to move into the Midwest on Wednesday, likely bringing snow to the Upper Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Then on Thursday the storm should be affecting the eastern United States. The storm could be fairly strong over the plains. But as it approaches the East Coast it should be quickly weakening. There is a chance for some rain over Pennsylvania especially eastern Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic for thanksgiving. Right now at least I think the rest of the region should be dry. Behind this We will start to see much colder air moving into the region. This is still an evolving situation So we'll see if and how the setup changes. I encourage y'all to read the post on the pattern If you wanna see why all this is going to happen.

Drought conditions

With the rain of late Most of the region continue to see improving drought conditions. But across northern Aroostook County in Maine the conditions did  a backslide. The drought monitor released on November 13 showed 8% of the Northeast was in extreme drought, with 12% in Severe drought, 31% in moderate drought and 32% experiencing abnormally dry conditions. This compares to 10%, 13%, 31% and 31% respectively from the week before.