11/06/2025

Sunday into Tuesday winter storm!

A little on today's into Saturdays weather

That strong cold front went through yesterday afternoon and last night, Creating Rain showers and strong winds. In some of the higher elevations The rain did turn over to a little bit of snow with very limited accumulations. 

Winds today are still breezy,  gusting upwards of 30-40 miles an hour. But the winds are backing off west to east. High pressure is building in and will move overhead today and tomorrow. This will keep our temperatures cooler but we should generally stay dry. The high pressure will start sliding east Late Friday afternoon into the evening.

The surface chart shows  low pressure approaching the Great Lakes. For later tomorrow into Saturday this is going to slide east across Southeast Canada. Along with this We will see a warm front lifting into and through the region Allowing temperatures to warm up. Behind the warm front a little trough will work through the region cooling us all back down to seasonal to slightly below seasonal levels. As the cold front comes through we will see scattered rain showers, and a few high elevation snow showers. The cold front should be pushing east Saturday afternoon/evening leading to improving conditions and clearing skies;  The first half of Sunday is looking to continue to stay dry. But then big changes will be coming. How this trough behaves will have a lot to say about who if anyone sees accumulating snow out of the second storm that will be coming through Sunday into next week.

Radar is showing many of us are dry with only a few scattered rain showers in parts of the region.

The Sunday into Tuesday winter storm

Yesterday I laid out the differences between the GFS and EURO. As expected the GFS is trending towards the EURO solution I showed yesterday.

Yesterday I also talked about isobars,  You can go back and look to what I said about them. When we look at the current 500 mb chart we can see the isobars are basically running west to east across the country, This is called a zonal flow, and is keeping the colder air locked up into Canada.  But when we look at the 500 millibar chart for Monday and Tuesday we can see those isobars dive way down south.  The isobars are very tight, so we are going to see a lot of strong winds.

Image credit Tropical Tidbits

Looking at the GFS we can see it is now showing a weaker storm but it is a little further south than it was showing yesterday. I expect the southern trend to continue.

Image credit Tropical Tidbits

Putting an end to this zonal flow. This deep trough is going to plunge right into the Gulf of America and southern Florida, bringing mid to end of December type temperatures To the eastern half of the United States. the Southeast US is likely going to break a lot of temperature records Monday and Tuesday.

Here is a look at the 850 mb temperature anomalies for Tuesday morning. I'd like to use 850 mb level because this level of the atmosphere isn't impacted by temperature fluctuations at the surface

Here is a look at the 2 meter surface temperatures anomalies for Tuesday morning

Image credit tropical tidbits.

Sunday we will see increasing clouds moving into the area along with some rain showers tracking west to east ahead of the Arctic Front.

As the upper level low gets over the Carolinas. There is a chance that we could see surface low pressure develop Just off the southeast coast. This would help enhance precipitation levels. Rainfall Will be widespread and will be heavy at times.

As I said yesterday Winds are going to be very strong with sustained winds of 10-30 miles an hour And wind gust of 40 to near 70 miles an hour especially in the higher elevations very possible. Temperatures are going to be running 10-20 °F below the historical average. Those winds are going to make it feel more like Siberia outside, when we consider the time of year we're in.

As the colder air comes in for Sunday night Monday into Tuesday We are going to see the rain change over to snow showers First in the higher elevations and downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario. But as the cold air continues to filter in The snow snow showers will be working their way down into lower elevations. Bringing the possibility of some accumulating snow for y'all across western Pennsylvania northern, central and western New York state into northern New England including Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and northern Massachusetts. Those with the best chance of seeing more than a couple inches of snow will be in the Appalachians, Poconos, Catskills Berkshires, Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites. The rest of y'all in the lower elevations of the areas I mentioned above could see accumulating snow of a dusting to an inch or so. The snow belts off of lake Erie in Northwest Pennsylvania and  Lake Ontario across New York State. Could end up with several inches of lake effect snow.

Storms need favorable conditions that allow for lifting to allow warm air, instability and moisture to increase the height of the clouds. The higher the clouds the greater the chance for accumulating snow. If we end up with more atmospheric lifting than I'm seeing at the moment.  we're gonna have plenty of cold air. The question is how much lift will we see. If we get enough lift, the snow amounts I'm talking about could be higher maybe much higher. But I do expect to see at least snowflakes in the I-95 corridor into the coastal plain.

During the day on Tuesday the upper level low is going to start to slide  north and east, heading towards the Canadian Maritimes. With lingering precipitation back across our region.

We're going to have another shortwave trough move through the region later Monday into Tuesday. This will bring more rain showers and snow showers to the region. With the temperature so cold we could see some snow showers even in the Coastal Plain.

Behind the departing storm we will see our temperatures moderate for later Tuesday and Wednesday.  But if anyone is expecting extended warmth I wouldn't hold your breath; as the second part of next week and the following week we are again looking to see a series of troughs move through the Northeast. As this extremely active pattern continues,  reinforcing the cold air that will be overhead.