11/12/2025

  This very active Weather pattern continues.

We have a warm front advancing into the region. This will produce winds out of the south and west That will help to warm us up turning any of the scattered snow showers over to rain showers this afternoon into tonight. Generally winds will be out of the south and west at 5-15 miles an hour with some gust approaching 25 miles an hour. Tonight won't be as cold as it was last night, But winds will remain a bit breezy.

 Last night there was an aurora borealis (northern lights) over the region. It was way too cloudy to see it, at least at my house. Tonight there will be another opportunity to see the northern lights. But again it's all going to depend on cloud cover.

The surface and radar chart

The highest elevations across the region could pick up a dusting to maybe an inch. Those downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie and under the most persistent bands could pick up another 2-4 inches of snow, Before a changeover to rain as the warm front moves through and temperatures warming.

On the infrared satellite we can see the main trough Is sitting off the coast, with a few shortwave troughs approaching and moving over the region. These short waves are going to continue to move through for today into tomorrow. Keeping things generally unsettled but most of us will just have a slight chance for an isolated rain/snow shower or two. Through tomorrow The higher elevations above 2,000 feet will have a chance to pick up another 2 to maybe as much as 5 inches of snow, But for the lower elevations and valleys it will be just a nuisance.  For those downwind of the Great Lakes, y'all will continue to see the chance for light lake effect snow showers producing light general accumulations of 1-3 inches, But those under the most persistent and heaviest of the bands will have a chance to pick up 3-8 " of lake snow by Thursday night.

Friday another trough will swing through the region, Producing a chance For a few rain and snow showers. Then as we get into the day on Friday high pressure will be approaching and setting up shop for Saturday. Friday afternoon and through Saturday the region should be generally dry and fairly tranquil. But we will be watching another system approaching from the west, later Saturday into Sunday a warm front will be lifting into the region, Bringing a chance for rain showers for many of us and snow showers in the highest elevations. One thing we will have to be watching out for is a possibility for a sleet/ice mix across the higher elevations of New York State into northern and central New England. Northern areas would see any mix of rain change over to some snow showers as the cold front moves through later in the day into Sunday night. Monday we will see shortwaves trying to move through and high pressure trying to set up. As these two features battle it out We could see a few isolated rain snow showers. Tuesday another system will be approaching with a warm front lifting into the region bringing the chance for rain/mix/snow to the region. Then on Wednesday the trailing cold front will slowly advance across the region bringing waves of rain showers in the lower elevations and chances for bouts of snow showers in higher elevations. We will also have to be on the lookout for the chance for some mixed precipitation in parts of the region.

I've had a few comments That people were caught off guard by the snow and or amount of it. I know I've been talking about the snow and possibilities of accumulations for several days before the event. I think from what I've seen in reports and everything. The areas I thought would see  accumulating snow, ended up seeing those accumulations. So I'm not really sure where these areas were located and how they didn't know it was coming!