A nor'easter

 

Yesterday's clipper is pulling to the east and radar shows Lake effect snow continuing to fall downwind of the lakes. Today is much warmer than it was yesterday But as the cold front slides through these temperatures are going to plummet for tomorrow into the weekend.

Another look at the big picture.

Over the last couple of days this storm has been trending north; As of now that trend is still there.

Courtesy of tropical tidbits

That incredibly strong Arctic high pressure is going to drive Arctic air into the United States. At the same time We have that upper level low That will track off  the pacific and across Baja California. The upper level low is going to inject warm moist air with a lot of water vapor being injected into the frontal boundary from the Gulf of America. All this warm air is going to overrun The cold air being ejected south.

This is going to be a catastrophic ice storm for Texas all the way into the Tennessee valley, the Carolinas and Virginia.

EURO

NAM

The medium range NAM model is just starting to come into range and it looks very similar to the two global models.

Images courtesy of tropical tidbits

As I said yesterday, this storm is looking like it's going to be a miller B, So we're going to see the low pressure tracking north and east just to the west of the Appalachians. As the low tracks towards Tennessee It is going to be pulling that warm air Northward with it. With that extremely strong area of high pressure sitting to the north, That area of low pressure can only go so far north, To me it looks like it will make it to West Virginia. Then we're going to see the energy transfer to the Mid Atlantic Coast and develop into a coastal low. As I've been saying, that strong high pressure is going to direct a lot of cold air Into the region. The air over the weekend is going to be the coldest air we've seen in quite some time. This cold air is going to wedge itself to the east of the Appalachians. Setting the stage for a possible monster storm.

A look at the national weather service Watches advisories and warnings ahead of this coming event

The warnings and advisories east of lake Ontario has to do with the ongoing lake effect snow falling downwind of lake Ontario. These warnings are going to stay in place into tomorrow. We are still a few days out from the weekend event. So because there's still some uncertainty the national weather service isn't issuing warnings and stuff for the nor'easter across  the rest of New York State into New England at this time.

A very early look at possible impacts

The coast of New Jersey down into the Chesapeake Bay could see a change over to rain. But if this is a direct hit, with the bitter cold the snow to liquid ratio is going to be 15-1 to 20-1 even 25-1 is possible. If this is the case and trying to keep things conservative; Western Maryland all of Pennsylvania much of New Jersey all of New York State and the vast majority of New England would have a good shot at seeing 8-18 inches of snow with possibly locally higher amounts. The current scenario would put 4-8 inches of snow/mix across much of eastern Maryland (Including DC and Baltimore), Delaware into southern New Jersey away from the Coast, before a changeover to sleet and ice. If the storm can push far enough north and more west allowing it to inject some warm air,  Philadelphia, New York City and Long Island could see some mixing as well. Mixing would cut down on snow totals. So if that happens, these areas could see 4-10 inches of snow.

As the coastal low deepens it will likely become a nor'easter as it tracks north and east. This is going to drag a lot of moisture off from the Atlantic and direct it into interior parts of Pennsylvania New York State as well as New England. With the extremely cold air that will be locked in place this moisture is going to be all snow. That temperature gradient Is also going to try to be become a catalyst and possibly blow this storm up into something major. Winds for Sunday into Monday are going to be likely quite strong.

Remember this is not an actual forecast It's only a look at what looks to be setting up. As I've been saying this is not yet set in stone and there's still time for this solution to alter and possibly have this storm a little further south and east. Bought the window for southern shift in the track Is closing.

That's it for now

Could the Northeast see a snow storm?

 Today is a bit warmer than it was yesterday but it's a little more windy so it still feels brutal outside. As the warm front continues to lift through the region our temperatures are going to continue to warm today and to Thursday morning. Here is a look at the current surface chart and radar.

We can see a clipper type system Over the Great lLakes pushing north and the east This is going to be dragging a cold front into the region during the overnight into Thursday. With the cold front we will see scattered snow showers and flurries move through. Downwind of lake Erie in lake Ontario we are going to see  lake effect snow bands redeveloped this afternoon into tonight. By tomorrow The lake bands are going to narrow up and strengthen bringing several inches of snow possible downwind of both lakes this will be especially true for lake Ontario where areas of the Tug Hill have a good shot at seeing 12-24 plus inches of additional snow by Friday. Over the next couple of days These bands are gonna be meandering north and south. Wednesday are going to ramp up Becoming 15-25 miles an hour With gust of 30-45 mph possible. The winds are going to stay brisk through tomorrow. Where is the snow this will create additional headaches For those near the Great Lakes.

Infrared satellite

Water vapor satellite image

We can see there's a lot of water vapor in the southern subtropical jet

The 2nd system dropping out of the southern Canada into the Plains is the one that's going to bring a deep trough into the United States for the weekend and set the stage for a big winter storm.

Laying the groundwork for a big major winter storm.

Over the weekend we are going to have an arctic air mass in place producing extremely low air temperatures. Winds will be quite breezy so wind chills are going to be dangerously brutal and nothing to fool around with. This is the coldest air we've seen in several years. So if you go outside make sure you dress properly in layers and limit your exposure outside as much as possible.

I've been posting on the trend the storm looks to be taking for the last few days This post will be more of the same.

We're going to have extremely strong high pressure drop out of northwest Canada and drop south and east Into the northern Plains of the US. As I've been saying for the last couple of days The strength and placement of this area of arctic high pressure is going to be a major factor on how the storm forms and how it tracks.

Image courtesy of tropical tidbits

In addition to this, we're going to have an upper level low off southern California. At the same time we're going to have a piece of energy dropping out of Canada and across the Plains.  The northern energy will drop south and east and the upper level low will move east over Baja California.  Both of these features are going to interact. The northern energy will be driving a lot of cold Southward. The southern part of the equation will be pulling a lot of moisture northward. As the mild air and moisture overrides the cold air; we are going to set the scenario for a significant ice event across Texas all the way into the Carolinas, maybe into parts of the Middle Atlantic as well. We are also going to see heavy snow north of the ice storms track.

Image courtesy of tropical tidbits

High pressure is going to meander east over the Ohio Valley and across northern New York State. As the high pressure builds in it does look to weaken some.

Images courtesy of tropical tidbits

The European ECMWF (EURO) has been very consistent with this storm for several days, Over the last 24 hours or so the American GFS has been trending toward the EURO. Where it has the storm end up further north and makes an impact on the Northeast. Right now both models look similar. But the GFS is still a little further south than the EURO. But both models are now showing that coastal low developing.

EURO

GFS

Images courtesy of tropical tidbits

With that 1040mb Arctic high sitting over Canada into Northern New York State and northern New England locking in cold. Along with a coastal low developing south of New England and east of the Delmarvia. This would be a set up for a major snowstorm with plenty of cold air interacting with a lot of available moisture; for a large part of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, the southern half  of New York State ( especially southeast New York State) and Long Island into southern and maybe central New England, could end up with big snow amounts.

With the trend of the storm track looking like it's coming further north Maryland including Washington DC Delaware into southern New Jersey will see Snow to start then possibly a changeover to ice!

As I've been saying the liquid to snow ratio for this event is going to be 15-1 to 20-1. With the snow so dry and fluffy it won't take a lot of moisture to produce significant amounts of snow. This storm could easily drop a foot or two of snow; Across the northern Middle Atlantic, much of Pennsylvania Possibly into southern New York State and southern into possibly central New England could see significant snow

The strong high that will be over the northeast looks to be  further north than it was looking to set up. This placement will give the storm the room it needs to track a little north and east. The high is very strong And that is going to keep the low pressure from pushing it out of the way. Instead that area of low pressure is going to have to  conform and move around that high pressure. It's still possible the storm could be suppressed far enough south to keep major impacts from occurring in our region. But that is looking less and less likely to happen. So we very well could see a coastal low (Miller B.Type) redevelop east of the Delmarvia Peninsula and south of Long Island that would track north and east strengthening as it does so. 

How far north the snow shield extends will depend on the actual track. It's too early to go into accumulation details. But right now there's a good chance that a large part of our region could see at least 6" of widespread snow out of this. Here is a look at the EURO and GFS ensembles showing possibilities for at least 6" of snow. These images come courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics.

Remember We're still talking about potential here. In order to get a major or even historic storm all the players and factors have to come into a line perfectly in order for them to occur. So even though a big Northern Middle Atlantic and Northeast storm is looking possible It's not a sure thing; as some of these factors might not line up perfectly!

Looking out into February!

With la Nina gasping and taking some of its last breaths. The Sub tropical jet is becoming much more energized and active. The northern polar jet has been active all winter And we're going to see more of the same as  we move through the rest of January into February we're going to see a series of clippers continue to move down into the US and bring impacts to our region. The cold air Is back in place As I forecasted several weeks ago. In this type of pattern there is a much better chance of seeing phasing between  the subtropical and polar jet. Resulting in what looks like we're going to be dealing with over the weekend into Monday with coastal systems developing and becoming possible nor'easters. Some of which will likely be major.

Have you enjoyed these daily breakdowns on the trends of this developing storm?

Have a safe and great rest of your day!

01/20/2026

 Today is going to be very cold With snow downwind of the Great Lakes. But if you think this is cold wait until the weekend!

Surface chart and radar.

Infrared and water vapor satellite images

2 meter air temperatures

Image credit tropical tidbits

The surface chart shows high pressure is in control With areas away from the great great lakes Seeing a mix of sun and clouds and dry conditions. The IR satellite shows The lake effect snow bands downwind of lake Erie and lake Ontario Producing significant snowfall in those areas.  The water vapor image The deep trough associated with this high pressure dropping in for the north. The trough is that swath of blue over the northern Middle Atlantic and extending west. The image also shows that blob of yellow over the Southwest US. Which is going to be part of our Storm for Sunday

Most of the region is in the single digits With  negative numbers showing up for the northern areas especially in the higher elevations. The southern areas and the urban areas along the coast are in the teens to low 20s. 

Winds will be breezy 5-15 miles an hour with some gust to 20 to  25 mph. This is going to create very cold wind chills.

Tomorrow the high pressure is going to push east and off the coast; setting up a southern flow that will allow our temperatures to become a bit milder but they likely will still be below average for this time of year. The wind shift will bring an end to this current bout of lake effect snow.

Our next arctic front and trough comes in for Wednesday night into Thursday. With the frontal passage We will see a few scattered snow showers or flurries over northern areas with scattered rain showers or mix for southern areas. But all in all precipitation shouldn't be that big of a deal.  Behind this front temperatures are going to be in free fall during Thursday into friday morning. We are likely to see the coldest air so far this winter across the region.

Image credit Tropical tidbits

Saturday We're going to have high pressure moving in providing Dry conditions Along with very dry air. So we will likely have quite a bit of Sun. Leading to extremely cold temperatures. Make sure if you're gonna be outside you dress in layers, with these kind of temperatures it won't take long for frostbite to set in. With the cold air moving over the relatively warmer great lakes we are going to see lake effect once again set up downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario.

We are going to have a couple areas of very strong arctic high pressure North of the storm track.  One area of high pressure will be sitting over the upper midwest into the upper Great Lakes. The second area of  high pressure will be sitting over New York State into northern New England. We're going to be having an area of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary, We have the subtropical jet allowing increased moisture to work into the storm. As I said yesterday, the location and strength of these areas of  high pressure especially the one over the northeast will have a lot to say about the actual track the storm is going to take and impacts in our region.

GFS Courtesy of tropical tidbits

EURO Courtesy of tropical tidbits

As I explained yesterday The strength and placement Of the high pressure will be the major key in how this storm tracks and unfolds. Over the northern tier of the US we're going to have what is called a banana high It's called this because its shape is similar To a banana. Looking at both The EURO and GFS we can see they look very similar. With high pressure of 1044mb-1054mb which is extremely strong. If high pressure remains this strong and verifies what the models are showing; it is indeed going to suppress this storm south. With the setup there is a potential for a significant ice storm across the southern states from Texas all the way to the East Coast. There is a chance that these areas could see an inch to over 2 inches of ice. If that verifies this would be a crippling event for the southern states.  On the northern side of that there will be snow. But with the air so dry any snow that falls will have a high fluff factor. So significant snowfall is possible across Maryland, Delaware into southern and maybe central New Jersey with the liquid to snow ratio 15--1 to 20-1 several inches of snow is possible in these areas. Depending on the northern extent of that snow shield southern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey could end up with moderate snowfall. Snowfall amounts would drop off south to north. Snow would be continuing into Monday.

The GFS doesn't show this coastal redevelopment 

Images credit tropical tidbits.

One thing we're going to have to watch out  for late Monday into Tuesday is the possibility of this low pressure redeveloping off the Middle Atlantic coast. With the setup as it is, as this is moving north and east it could rapidly develop. Tuesday would see the storm pulling away. This is a  very complex set up. If the storm stays suppressed to the south. The possible coastal development would also be further south. With all the variables we are still in a wait and see. Nothing is set in stone as I am juggling several possibilities.

Have a great rest of your day and try to stay warm!

A cold MLK day

 Here's a look at the surface chart and radar.

The storm over the weekend basically behaved as expected but it did produce some surprises and. overproduced for some locally.

We can see low pressure centered around the Canadian maritimes with a trough moving across New York State and Pennsylvania. We do have an approaching cold front coming in out of the lakes and Ohio valley. With the frontal passage there could be a quick burst of some heavier snow. . Away from the Great Lakes a mix of sun and clouds with scattered snow showers. For most places the day will be fairly tranquil But downwind of lake Erie and lake Ontario they will be dealing with lake effect snow.

Downwind of both lakes the National Weather Service has lake effect snow Warnings and Advisories in place. Image courtesy of pivotal weather.

For today tomorrow into Wednesday those downwind of lake Ontario and lake Erie under the most persistent parts of the bands will see 1-3 feet of snow with localized high amounts of 4-5 feet possible. Travel in these areas will be very difficult to near impossible. Tomorrow will be a rinse and repeat With very cold temperatures across the region mainly tranquil conditions away from the great lakes. The heavy lake effect snow Will continue for Tuesday night into Wednesday. On Wednesday the winds are going to shift and temperatures will start to warm up a bit. The wind shift will put an end to the lake effect snow. 

The warmer temperatures won't last for long. As an arctic cold front will be approaching and moving through on Thursday into Friday. The entire region Is going to experience very cold arctic air with dangerous wind chills later Friday and through the coming weekend. This is going to be a very strong Area of arctic high pressure. The strength of this area of high pressure will have repercussions on the storm track over the weekend

Image courtesy of tropical tidbits

Saturday and Sunday We will be watching a low pressure area moving across the southern US. The air During this time is going to be 25-40 ° below average, add in the winds and the air is going to be very brutal and dangerous. We're going to have a front laundry Sitting somewhere to our south. The cold air streaming in from the north is likely to suppress the storm track to our south resulting in a chance for a big ice storm across Texas and parts of the southern US all the way to the East Coast.

Images courtesy of tropical tidbits

Most of the stormy weather should be Just south of our region but we have to keep an eye on it As there is a chance for snow possibly heavy across parts of the northern Middle Atlantic which would include Maryland, Delaware and at least southern New Jersey. With the extremely cold air the snow will have a lot of fluff to it. So several inches of snow will be possible across the virginias into Maryland including Washington DC, Delaware and southern New Jersey. 

The pattern has been telegraphing the storm for at least the last week or two. I did mention the 24th to 28th time frame quite some time ago. 

The strength and position of that Arctic high pressure is going to be key as to how the storm tracks. If it is incredibly strong it will suppress the storm to the south but the weaker the Arctic high is the further north this storm could track. There is still a chance the storm track could shift north enough to bring heavier snow into Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Right now we're just looking at the possibilities and nothing is set in stone. So we just have to watch the trends and see how this evolves.