A cold MLK day

 Here's a look at the surface chart and radar.

The storm over the weekend basically behaved as expected but it did produce some surprises and. overproduced for some locally.

We can see low pressure centered around the Canadian maritimes with a trough moving across New York State and Pennsylvania. We do have an approaching cold front coming in out of the lakes and Ohio valley. With the frontal passage there could be a quick burst of some heavier snow. . Away from the Great Lakes a mix of sun and clouds with scattered snow showers. For most places the day will be fairly tranquil But downwind of lake Erie and lake Ontario they will be dealing with lake effect snow.

Downwind of both lakes the National Weather Service has lake effect snow Warnings and Advisories in place. Image courtesy of pivotal weather.

For today tomorrow into Wednesday those downwind of lake Ontario and lake Erie under the most persistent parts of the bands will see 1-3 feet of snow with localized high amounts of 4-5 feet possible. Travel in these areas will be very difficult to near impossible. Tomorrow will be a rinse and repeat With very cold temperatures across the region mainly tranquil conditions away from the great lakes. The heavy lake effect snow Will continue for Tuesday night into Wednesday. On Wednesday the winds are going to shift and temperatures will start to warm up a bit. The wind shift will put an end to the lake effect snow. 

The warmer temperatures won't last for long. As an arctic cold front will be approaching and moving through on Thursday into Friday. The entire region Is going to experience very cold arctic air with dangerous wind chills later Friday and through the coming weekend. This is going to be a very strong Area of arctic high pressure. The strength of this area of high pressure will have repercussions on the storm track over the weekend

Image courtesy of tropical tidbits

Saturday and Sunday We will be watching a low pressure area moving across the southern US. The air During this time is going to be 25-40 ° below average, add in the winds and the air is going to be very brutal and dangerous. We're going to have a front laundry Sitting somewhere to our south. The cold air streaming in from the north is likely to suppress the storm track to our south resulting in a chance for a big ice storm across Texas and parts of the southern US all the way to the East Coast.

Images courtesy of tropical tidbits

Most of the stormy weather should be Just south of our region but we have to keep an eye on it As there is a chance for snow possibly heavy across parts of the northern Middle Atlantic which would include Maryland, Delaware and at least southern New Jersey. With the extremely cold air the snow will have a lot of fluff to it. So several inches of snow will be possible across the virginias into Maryland including Washington DC, Delaware and southern New Jersey. 

The pattern has been telegraphing the storm for at least the last week or two. I did mention the 24th to 28th time frame quite some time ago. 

The strength and position of that Arctic high pressure is going to be key as to how the storm tracks. If it is incredibly strong it will suppress the storm to the south but the weaker the Arctic high is the further north this storm could track. There is still a chance the storm track could shift north enough to bring heavier snow into Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Right now we're just looking at the possibilities and nothing is set in stone. So we just have to watch the trends and see how this evolves.