01/04/2026

 Start of a warming trend!

We are going to have a couple of weak systems come through, one on Monday the other will be Tuesday.  Neither one of these are gonna have huge impacts. 

The big story this week Is going to be the warming trend that's going to develop During Tuesday lasting into the coming weekend. By Friday temperatures across the region are going to be well above average. During the second half of this week most of the precipitation will end up being rain but the higher elevations could see a little bit of mixing here and there. With the warmer temperatures and the rain We will experience some Snow loss. Those who have a deep snow pack won't lose all their snow. But those who don't could lose a lot of it or all of it! . Places like the Tug Hill region have 4 to over 6 feet of snow sitting on the ground so this could be welcomed by these areas as they get a chance to lose a little bit of that snow. 

I've been talking about the warm up we're going to be going through this week This climate prediction center is still showing in their 6 to 10 day this warmth that will be encompassing the region!

This week we will have to be watching a piece of energy in the Pacific and a second piece of energy up near Alaska. Both of these are going to drop into the United States where they have a chance of possibly merging and then heading towards the Great Lakes as a storm, during the second half of this week. Our region would be on the warm side of this so we would most likely see mostly rain or mix out of it We'll see how all this trends.d

I've been talking about this January thaw not sticking around for a very long time but a week or so of warmer weather will end with a return of colder temperatures moving back in, During the second half of this month into February.

Adding to what I said about the second half of January into February from my Friday post.

During the second half of January through at least the middle of February the pattern is going to be dominated by a negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and a positive Tropical/Northern Hemisphere index (TNH). When these teleconnections are in this orientation we typically see  colder than  average weather here in the eastern half of the United States.

Impact of the negative phase of the EPO during winter

Impact of a positive TNA during winter

A positive TNA index is observed when sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical North Atlantic are above average.

 

I know much of the region has been getting nickel and dime with these numerous clippers coming through dropping a little bit of snow at a time. But we have seen no really big storms. While I can't guarantee we're going to get any big storms this winter. As I said on Friday the pattern is going to adjust to one that will increase the odds of coastal storms bringing bigger storms into our region. Many parts of New York State and northern and central New England have seen average or above average snow to date while the rest of the region has seen some snow as well. We still have at least a couple months of winter remaining; so there is plenty of time to see a few  moderate to big storms impact a region. So far my winter outlook is working out really well; I think that is going to continue. I have a lot of confidence that most of the region is going to end up with average to above average snowfall for the entire winter when everything is said and done!